• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.69-78
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• 1999

This paper defines the reliable based route choice Principle and formulates the reliability based equilibrium traffic assignment using the Principle. The reliability is defined as the difference of travel demand and capacity using the interference theory of the system engineering. An efficient solution a1gorithm based on Frank-Wo1fe algolithm is Presented to calculate and compare the reliability based traffic assignment with conventional travel time based assignment using small and large scaled road networks. The results show that reliability based traffic assignment converges to equilibrium solution in a reasonable computing time. The equilibrium link flows between reliability and travel time based traffic assignment differ each other in the sense that reliability based assignment is assigned based on the maximum difference of travel demand and link capacity whilst travel time based is assigned on the shortest travel time.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.7 s.93
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• pp.91-100
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• 2006

Travel Demand Forecasting (TDF) is an essential and critical process in the evaluation of the highway improvement Project. The four-step TDF Process has generally been used to forecast travel demand and analyze the effects of diverted travel demand based on the given Origin-Destination trips in the future. Transportation system improvements, however, generate more travel, Induced Travel Demand (ITD) or latent travel demand, which has not been considered in the project evaluation. The Purpose of this study Is to develop a model which can forecast the ITD applied theory of economics and the Program(I.D.A) which can be widely applied to project evaluation analysis. The Kang-Byun-Book-Ro expansion scenario is used to apply and analyze a real-world situation. The result highlights that as much as 15% of diverted travel demand is generated as ITD. The results of this study are expected to improve reliability of the project evaluation of the highway improvement Project.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.63-72
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• 2002

We applied 3-D balancing technique to estimate nationwide travel demand using travel behavior of Toll Collecting System data, socio-economic data in the region, and the data of several organizations connected with travel demand estimation. The results from this study were validated by the indices of RMSE(Root Mean Square Error), TLFD(Trip Length Frequency Distribution). TCS based inter-city average travel to measure of reliability and adequacy of estimated travel demand. Finally, 3-D technique seems to reflect more travel behavior of TCS OD than 2-D technique, but we cannot assert that 3-D technique superior to 2-D technique.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2010.06a
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• pp.2166-2178
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• 2010

The Korea Transportation Database (KTDB) is used to obtain data on the origin and destination (OD) of inter-city travel, which are currently used in railroad planning when estimating traffic demand. The KTDB employs the trip assignment method, whereby the total traffic volume researched for inter-city travel in Korea is divided into road, rail and air traffic, etc. However, as regards rail travel, the railroad stations are not identical to the existing zones or the connector has not been established because there are several stations in one zone as such, certain problems with the applicable methods have been identified. Therefore, estimates of the volume of railroad traffic using the KTDB display low reliability compared to other modes of transportation. In this study, these problems are reviewed and analyzed, and use of the aggregate model method to estimate the direct demand for rail travel is proposed in order to improve the reliability of estimation. In addition, a method of minimizing error in traffic demand estimation for the railroad field is proposed via an analysis of the relationship between the aggregate model and various social-economic indicators including population, distances, numbers of industrial employees, numbers of automobiles, and the extension of roads between cities.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.89-114
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• 2011

With steady increase in the demand for door-to-door delivery services, courier service providers are facing a constant pressure to reduce delivery price in order to secure quantity order and to improve the efficiency and reliability for customer service. The objective of this research is to explain the structure of the door-to-door delivery including door-to-door delivery service demand, sorting capacity in the hub-terminal, and the system performance measures such as service reliability networks using causal loop diagram(CLD). Based on causal relation, this research describes a comprehensive approach to examine how capacity reliability contributes to the renewal of the firm's competences through its reciprocal relationship with travel time reliability and connectivity reliability. Also, this research suggests the policy alternatives to improve effectiveness and efficiency of door-to-door delivery network in response to increase customer satisfaction and profit maximization of the courier service providers: operational, tactical, and strategic levels.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.55-67
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• 2009

In Korea, previously implemented road construction project caused a big budget waste due to overestimation of transport demand. There could be reasons for such inaccuracy of transport demand estimation, but the main reasons are: (1) low reliability of used basic road transport data and (2) inadequate sharing of data among agencies/departments. The National Transport Database and the Household Travel Database in Seoul Metropolitan Area, two representing basic road transport database, will be used to the establishment of a road construction plan that will be promoted afterwards. However, these materials have problems such as low reliability and inadequateness, too. Hence, focusing on transport demand estimation related databases, this paper will make proposals for enhancing their reliability and data sharing.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.136-146
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• 2013

Truck demand analysis based on TCS data has limitation in that TCS data can not provide truck O/D data for each type of truck vehicle. This study conducted video survey for classifying truck vehicle types. By using TCS data and vehicle ratio by region/cities type, truck O/D data on expressway were estimated. It was found that average travel distances of small truck, medium truck and large truck were 52km/veh, 56km/veh and 97km/veh, respectively by analysing truck O/D data estimated in this study. The reliability analysis showed that check points where error rate is lower than 30% comprise of 87.3%. It is considered that estimated O/D data by truck vehicle types would be useful for the analysis of truck demand of expressway.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.97-106
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• 2011

Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.81-88
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• 2008

This paper presents the travel demand estimation using interval estimation methods during the trip generation stage, and then followed the other three stages of the four stage trip estimation. We have used real data of Dae-jun City. To estimate travel demand using the interval estimation method, a reliability level was set to 95% by a upper bound value, a middle value and a lower bound value. The four stage traffic demand analysis procedure was equally applied and finally interval traffic was estimated. The result showed a difference between maximum values and middle values depending on the destination during the trip generation stage. It depends on an explanation ability of regression analysis. Most of interval estimation ratio resulted in the traffic assignment stage showed ${\pm}5{\sim}18%$ difference on the average and ${\pm}30{\sim}50%$ at the most.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.115-124
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• 2010

VDF(volume-delay function) is one of the most important factor to improve the reliability of traffic demand estimation because it is for estimation of link travel time based on the traffic volume variation. Because VDF of link except for freeway is applied as the parameter of BPR(bureau of public road) of U.S., it causes to deteriorate the accuracy of traffic demand estimation. The purpose of this paper is to establish new parameter of VDF based on the real-surveyed traffic data in order to improve the problem of the existing VDF. We suggest the reclassification of road hierarchy, the approach of traffic survey, the estimating method of VDF parameter, and the improvements of new VDF application. The new VDF allows us to estimate more realistic traffic situation in parts of demand, travel time and path between origin-destination.