• Title/Summary/Keyword: Reliability Prediction

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Optimal Micrositing and Annual Energy Production Prediction for Wind Farm Using Long-term Wind Speed Correlation Between AWS and MERRA (AWS와 MERRA 데이터의 장기간 풍속보정을 통한 풍력터빈 최적배치 및 연간에너지생산량 예측)

  • Park, Mi Ho;Kim, Bum Suk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.201-212
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    • 2016
  • A Wind resource assessment and optimal micrositing of wind turbines were implemented for the development of an onshore wind farm of 30 MW capacity on Gadeok Island in Busan, Republic of Korea. The wind data measured by the automatic weather system (AWS) that was installed and operated in the candidate area were used, and a reliability investigation was conducted through a data quality check. The AWS data were measured for one year, and were corrected for the long term of 30 years by using the modern era retrospective analysis for research and application (MERRA) reanalysis data and a measure- correlate-predict (MCP) technique; the corrected data were used for the optimal micrositing of the wind turbines. The micrositing of the 3 MW wind turbines was conducted under 25 conditions, then the best-optimized layout was analyzed with a various wake model. When the optimization was complete, the estimated park efficiency and capacity factor were from 97.6 to 98.7 and from 37.9 to 38.3, respectively. Furthermore, the annual energy production (AEP), including wake losses, was estimated to be from 99,598.4 MWh to 100,732.9 MWh, and the area was confirmed as a highly economical location for development of a wind farm.

Crack Spacing in RC Tension Members Considering Cover Thickness and Concrete Compressive Strength (피복두께와 콘크리트 강도를 고려한 철근콘크리트 인장부재의 균열간격)

  • Kim, Woo;Lee, Ki-Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.193-202
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposed a crack spacing calculation formulation which is an important parameter for calculating the crack width, that is the main factor for verification of serviceability limit states and durability performance evaluation of reinforced concrete members. The basic equation of average crack spacing is derived by considering the bond characteristics which is the governing equation for the analysis of cracking behavior in reinforced concrete members. In order to consider the effect of the cover thickness and concrete compressive strength, the crack spacing measured in 124 direct tensile tests performed by several researchers was analyzed and each coefficient was proposed. And, correlation analysis was performed from 80 specimen data where the maximum and average crack spacing were simultaneously measured, and a correlation coefficient that can easily predict the maximum crack spacing from the average crack spacing was proposed. The results of the proposed average crack spacing equation and maximum crack spacing correlation were compared with those current design code specification. The comparisons of proposed equations and the Korean design codes show that the proposed formulation for the average crack spacing and the maximum crack spacing improves the accuracy and reliability of prediction compared to the corresponding provisions of the Korean Concrete Structural Design Code and Korean Highway Bridge Design Code (Limit States Design).

Relationships between Health, Depression, Memory Self-Efficacy and Metamemory in Adults (성인의 건강, 우울, 기억, 자기효능과 메타기억과의 상관관계 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hwa;Kang, Hyun-Sook
    • The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 1998
  • Defining prediction variables related to metamemory for the adults in aging process has worthwhile meaning from the perspective that the produced results can be helpful to reducing the difficulty of memorizing efforts and it can also enhance quality of life of aged. This study attempted to analysis relationship between perceived health status, depression, memory self-efficacy and meta memory for the subjects of middle age and old age adults. This study was designed by adopting descriptive correlational analysis method for the 468 middle and old age adults who are living in Seoul. Samples were selected by convenience sampling. Data collection was done over 1 month period in june 1998. The instruments used in this study were health status measuring scale including depression measuring scale, memory self efficacy measuring scale and metamemory measuring scale which were verified for reliability. Data collected were analized by using SPSS for frequency, Peason correlation, t-test and ANOVA according to the variables character and the study purposes. Results of the study were as follows. 1. Relationship between perceived health status, depression, memory self-efficacy and metamemory. Relational analyses between perceived health status, depression, memory self-efficacy and metamemory supported the hypotheses of 1st, 2nd and 3rd(p < .01). These results suggested that the aged perceived great health status then their memory self-efficacy, and metamemory showed the high scores. In the case of depression when its level became decreased metamemory was inclined to increased. Thus, it is identified that strong relationship exists between these variables. 2. Perceived health status, depression, memory self-efficacy by subject's general characteristics. Scores of perceived health status were high in the group of man compared to the group of women, and also highly educated group showed great perceived health status. Group of persons having occupation showed high score of perceived health status and low depression score. The score of memory self-efficacy and metamemory showed higher in the middle aged than the old aged. The high scores of memory self-efficacy and metamemory were found in the group of highly educated people and who have continuing education. The high scores of memory self-efficacy were found in the group of persons having their job and high metamemory scores found in the group of persons having religion. In summary, the greater perceived health status and memory self-efficacy, the more metamemory scores were likely increased and the more depression level was decreased, the more metamemory was likely increased. Also it was found that general characteristics like educational level, continuing education and religion influenced the metamemory of the aged. Therefore, prevention the aged from getting depression and activation of health promotion are needed to delay time of memory loss.

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Development of Three-Dimensional Finite Element Model for Structural Analysis of Airport Concrete Pavements (공항 콘크리트 포장 구조해석을 위한 3차원 유한요소 모형 개발)

  • Park, Hae Won;Shim, Cha Sang;Lim, Jin Seon;Joe, Nam Hyun;Jeong, Jin Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : In this study, a three-dimensional nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA) model for airport concrete pavement was developed using the commercial program ABAQUS. Users can select an analysis method and set the range of input parameters to reflect actual conditions such as environmental loading. METHODS : The geometrical shape of the FEA model was chosen by considering the concrete pavement located in the third-stage construction site of Incheon International Airport. Incompatible eight-node elements were used for the FEA model. Laboratory test results for the concrete specimens fabricated at the construction site were used as material properties of the concrete slab. The material properties of the cement-treated base suggested by the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) manual were used as those of the lean concrete subbase. In addition, preceding studies and pavement evaluation reports of Incheon International Airport were referred for the material properties of asphalt base and subgrade. The kinetic friction coefficient between the concrete slab and asphalt base acquired from a preceding study was used for the friction coefficient between the layers. A nonlinear temperature gradient according to slab depth was used as an input parameter of environmental loading, and a quasistatic method was used to analyze traffic loading. The average load transfer efficiency obtained from an Heavy falling Weight Deflectomete(HWD) test was converted to a spring constant between adjacent slabs to be used as an input parameter. The reliability of the FEA model developed in this study was verified by comparing its analysis results to those of the FEAFAA model. RESULTS : A series of analyses were performed for environmental loading, traffic loading, and combined loading by using both the model developed in this study and the FEAFAA model under the same conditions. The stresses of the concrete slab obtained by both analysis models were almost the same. An HWD test was simulated and analyzed using the FEA model developed in this study. As a result, the actual deflections at the center, mid-edge, and corner of the slab caused by the HWD loading were similar to those obtained by the analysis. CONCLUSIONS : The FEA model developed in this study was judged to be utilized sufficiently in the prediction of behavior of airport concrete pavement.

Development and Comparative Analysis of Mapping Quality Prediction Technology Using Orientation Parameters Processed in UAV Software (무인기 소프트웨어에서 처리된 표정요소를 이용한 도화품질 예측기술 개발 및 비교분석)

  • Lim, Pyung-Chae;Son, Jonghwan;Kim, Taejung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.6_1
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    • pp.895-905
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    • 2019
  • Commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) image processing software products currently used in the industry provides camera calibration information and block bundle adjustment accuracy. However, they provide mapping accuracy achievable out of input UAV images. In this paper, the quality of mapping is calculated by using orientation parameters from UAV image processing software. We apply the orientation parameters to the digital photogrammetric workstation (DPW) for verifying the reliability of the mapping quality calculated. The quality of mapping accuracy was defined as three types of accuracy: Y-parallax, relative model and absolute model accuracy. The Y-parallax is an accuracy capable of determining stereo viewing between stereo pairs. The Relative model accuracy is the relative bundle adjustment accuracy between stereo pairs on the model coordinates system. The absolute model accuracy is the bundle adjustment accuracy on the absolute coordinate system. For the experimental data, we used 723 images of GSD 5 cm obtained from the rotary wing UAV over an urban area and analyzed the accuracy of mapping quality. The quality of the relative model accuracy predicted by the proposed technique and the maximum error observed from the DPW showed precise results with less than 0.11 m. Similarly, the maximum error of the absolute model accuracy predicted by the proposed technique was less than 0.16 m.

A Study on the Primary Energy Change Amount and Grade Correlation following Factor Changes such as Area, Point of the Compass, Standard Layer, Insulation, Airtight Joint and Others (지역, 방위, 기준층, 단열재, 기밀등 요소변화에 따른 1차에너지 변화량 과 연관성 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Won;Chung, Kwang-Seop;Kim, Young-Il;Nam, Ariasae;Kim, Sung-Min;Cho, Young-Wook
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2015
  • Studies on the environment-friendly and permanent low energy saving measure are and will continue to be an eternal challenge. However, the demand is high for the technologies that can save energy significantly in everyday life that produce tangible benefits for the users by applying saving factors and that anyone can access easily when it comes the related procedure. Government policies related to the improvement of energy effect in the existing building structure are characterized by complex procedure. Moreover, cost required and reliability issue emerge when request is made to an expert. Accordingly, this study seeks to present energy improvement plan that can be utilized simply and conveniently at any place, any time by enabling customized design according to individual taste by enabling energy change amount and grade prediction when the users select only the part that they want to replace by using a simple program.

Risk-Based Performance Evaluation and Prediction Tool by Characterizing Construction Projects in Pre-Project Planning (초기 단계 프로젝트 특성을 고려한 리스크 평가 및 예측 툴 개발)

  • Shin, Kang-Yong;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.168-175
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    • 2008
  • Project risk factors are major triggers in cost performance in construction projects. Both owners and contractors are highly concerned in managing their risks in earlier times. As such, it is needed to provide a robust risk evaluation methodology in identifying and assessing the potential risks before project execution. In previous research, risk identification was conducted only in specific phases, i. e., design, procurement, construction. Therefore, the comprehensive approach in risk management was limited and their quantifying method was not well-defined. Since the benefit of planning in earlier times are maximized compared to later times, the risk management should be implemented in earlier planning stage. This study provide a new risk evaluation method by incorporating previous research and extensive literature review. By quantifying each risk factor from an extensive industry survey, the proposed tool can enhance the reliability of each factor weight and also the weights are categorized from a various perspectives, i.e., owners, contractors, lager-scale company, smaller-scale company, building projects. The proposed tool can be also useful in deciding on whether to proceed a particular project and How much the project contingency would be set aside in project execution. The study findings can also expedite the risk management procedure in a more systematic approach.

An Analysis on the Behavior Characteristics of the Side of Drilled Shafts in Rocks (암반에 근입된 현장타설말뚝의 주면부 거동특성 분석)

  • Lee, Hyukjin;Lee, Hyungkyu
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2006
  • In case of drilled shafts installed by drilling through soft overburden onto a strong rock, the piles can be regarded as end-bearing elements and their working load is determined by the safe working stress on the pile shaft at the point of minimum cross-section or by code of practice requirements. Drilled shafts drilled down for some depth into weak or weathered rocks and terminated within these rocks act partly as friction and partly as end-bearing piles. The base resistance component can contribute significantly to the ultimate capacity of the pile. However, the shaft resistance is typically mobilized at considerably smaller pile movements than that of the base. In addition, the base response can be adversely affected by any debris that is left in the bottom of the socket. The reliability of base response therefore depends on the use of a construction and inspection technique which leaves the socket free of debris. This may be difficult and costly to achieve, particularly in deep sockets, which are often drilled under water or drilling slurry. As a consequence of these factors, shaft resistance generally dominates pile performance at working loads. The efforts to improve the prediction of drilled shaft pile performance are therefore primarily concerned with the complex mechanisms of shaft resistance development. In this study, the numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the behavior characteristics of side of rock socketed drilled shafts varying the loading condition at the pile head. The difference of behavior characteristics of side resistance is also evaluated with the effects of modelling of asperity.

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Study on the Maintenance Cost of Railway Infrastructure Using Line Classification and TMV Data (선로등급 및 검측차 검측정보를 고려한 철도시설 유지보수비용 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, In Kyum;Lee, Jun S.;Choi, Il Yoon;Lee, Hoo Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.275-287
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    • 2017
  • During the feasibility study of new rail lines, maintenance cost of railway infrastructure has mostly been estimated based on the track length and on simplified parameters; however, the estimation reliability can be improved by employing the correction factor from UIC 715, as well as the line classification in UIC 714. The correlations between maintenance cost and various parameters such as weighted track length based on line classification, radius of curvature, gradient and worn -out rate have been analyzed according to the case studies. Prediction of the maintenance cost has been carried out using the cost data, which were representative of the whole cost data; as a result, it was demonstrated that a cost model based on the line classification and the correction factor was more reliable than the existing models. Furthermore, possibilities of using data from both the track measurement vehicle and from the maintenance information system, which are under development, have been investigated and, based on this investigation, a combined cost model using line classification, radius of curvature, gradient and worn-out rate, among other factors, will be proposed in the near future.

Feasibility of the Lapse Rate Prediction at an Hourly Time Interval (기온감률의 일중 경시변화 예측 가능성)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2016
  • Temperature lapse rate within the planetary boundary layer shows a diurnal cycle with a substantial variation. The widely-used lapse rate value for the standard atmosphere may result in unaffordable errors if used in interpolating hourly temperature in complex terrain. We propose a simple method for estimating hourly lapse rate and evaluate whether this scheme is better than the conventional method using the standard lapse rate. A standard curve for lapse rate based on the diurnal course of temperature was drawn using upper air temperature for 1000hPa and 925hPa standard pressure levels. It was modulated by the hourly sky condition (amount of clouds). In order to test the reliability of this method, hourly lapse rates for the 500-600m layer over Daegwallyeong site were estimated by this method and compared with the measured values by an ultrasonic temperature profiler. Results showed the mean error $-0.0001^{\circ}C/m$ and the root mean square error $0.0024^{\circ}C/m$ for this vertical profile experiment. An additional experiment was carried out to test if this method is applicable for the mountain slope lapse rate. Hourly lapse rates for the 313-401m slope range in a complex watershed ('Hadong Watermark 2') were estimated by this method and compared with the observations. We found this method useful in describing diurnal cycle and variation of the mountain slope lapse rate over a complex terrain despite larger error compared with the vertical profile experiment.