• Title/Summary/Keyword: Relative Uncertainty

Search Result 290, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Spatial Assessment of Climate Suitability for Summer Cultivation of Potato in North Korea (기후적합도 모형을 활용한 북한지역 내 감자의 여름재배 적지 탐색)

  • Kang, Minju;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.35-47
    • /
    • 2022
  • Expansion of potato production areas can improve the food security in North Korea because the given crop has less requirements for agricultural materials and facilities. The Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model, which was developed to evaluate climate suitability under different cultivation conditions, was used to identify potential areas for the potato production. The spatial estimates of crop suitability under low and high input management conditions were downloaded from the GAEZ data portal. The values of suitability were obtained at the potato occurrence sites retrieved from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. The suitable areas for the potato production were identified using a threshold value derived from the suitability estimates at the occurrence sites. It was found that 90% of the occurrence sites had the suitability index value >3,333, which was set to be the threshold value. The suitable areas in North Korea were summarized by province and county. Rice cultivation areas were excluded from the analysis. The reported relative acreage of potato production was better represented by the suitable areas under the low input management options than the high input conditions. The suitable areas also had a similar distribution to the reported acreage of potato production by county. These results indicated that the GAEZ model would be useful to identify the candidate production areas, which would facilitate the increases in potato production especially under future climate conditions. Furthermore, monthly maps of crop suitability can be used to design cropping systems that would improve crop production under the limited use of agricultural materials and facilities.

Establishment of Crowd Management Safety Measures Based on Crowd Density Risk Simulation (군중 밀집 위험도 시뮬레이션 기반의 인파 관리 안전대책 수립)

  • Hyuncheol Kim;Hyungjun Im;Seunghyun Lee;Youngbeom Ju;Soonjo Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.38 no.2
    • /
    • pp.96-103
    • /
    • 2023
  • Generally, human stampedes and crowd collapses occur when people press against each other, causing falls that may result in death or injury. Particularly, crowd accidents have become increasingly common since the 1990s, with an average of 380 deaths annually. For instance, in Korea, a stampede occurred during the Itaewon Halloween festival on October 29, 2022, when several people crowded onto a narrow, downhill road, which was 45 meters long and between 3.2 and 4 meters wide. Precisely, this stampede was primarily due to the excessive number of people relative to the road size. Essentially, stampedes can occur anywhere and at any time, not just at events, but also in other places where large crowds gather. More specifically, the likelihood of accidents increases when the crowd density exceeds a turbulence threshold of 5-6 /m2. Meanwhile, festivals and events, which have become more frequent and are promoted through social media, garner people from near and far to a specific location. Besides, as cities grow, the number of people gathering in one place increases. While stampedes are rare, their impact is significant, and the uncertainty associated with them is high. Currently, there is no scientific system to analyze the risk of stampedes due to crowd concentration. Consequently, to prevent such accidents, it is essential to prepare for crowd disasters that reflect social changes and regional characteristics. Hence, this study proposes using digital topographic maps and crowd-density risk simulations to develop a 3D model of the region. Specifically, the crowd density simulation allows for an analysis of the density of people walking along specific paths, which enables the prediction of danger areas and the risk of crowding. By using the simulation method in this study, it is anticipated that safety measures can be rationally established for specific situations, such as local festivals, and preparations may be made for crowd accidents in downtown areas.

Determination of Exposure during Handling of 125I Seed Using Thermoluminescent Dosimeter and Monte Carlo Method Based on Computational Phantom

  • Hosein Poorbaygi;Seyed Mostafa Salimi;Falamarz Torkzadeh;Saeid Hamidi;Shahab Sheibani
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.48 no.4
    • /
    • pp.197-203
    • /
    • 2023
  • Background: The thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) and Monte Carlo (MC) dosimetry are carried out to determine the occupational dose for personnel in the handling of 125I seed sources. Materials and Methods: TLDs were placed in different layers of the Alderson-Rando phantom in the thyroid, lung and also eyes and skin surface. An 125I seed source was prepared and its activity was measured using a dose calibrator and was placed at two distances of 20 and 50 cm from the Alderson-Rando phantom. In addition, the Monte Carlo N-Particle Extended (MCNPX 2.6.0) code and a computational phantom with a lattice-based geometry were used for organ dose calculations. Results and Discussion: The comparison of TLD and MC results in the thyroid and lung is consistent. Although the relative difference of MC dosimetry to TLD for the eyes was between 4% and 13% and for the skin between 19% and 23%, because of the existence of a higher uncertainty regarding TLD positioning in the eye and skin, these inaccuracies can also be acceptable. The isodose distribution was calculated in the cross-section of the head phantom when the 125I seed was at two distances of 20 and 50 cm and it showed that the greatest dose reduction was observed for the eyes, skin, thyroid, and lungs, respectively. The results of MC dosimetry indicated that for near the head positions (distance of 20 cm) the absorbed dose rates for the eye lens, eye and skin were 78.1±2.3, 59.0±1.8, and 10.7±0.7 µGy/mCi/hr, respectively. Furthermore, we found that a 30 cm displacement for the 125I seed reduced the eye and skin doses by at least 3- and 2-fold, respectively. Conclusion: Using a computational phantom to monitor the dose to the sensitive organs (eye and skin) for personnel involved in the handling of 125I seed sources can be an accurate and inexpensive method.

Evaluation of Factors Used in AAPM TG-43 Formalism Using Segmented Sources Integration Method and Monte Carlo Simulation: Implementation of microSelectron HDR Ir-192 Source (미소선원 적분법과 몬테칼로 방법을 이용한 AAPM TG-43 선량계산 인자 평가: microSelectron HDR Ir-192 선원에 대한 적용)

  • Ahn, Woo-Sang;Jang, Won-Woo;Park, Sung-Ho;Jung, Sang-Hoon;Cho, Woon-Kap;Kim, Young-Seok;Ahn, Seung-Do
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.190-197
    • /
    • 2011
  • Currently, the dose distribution calculation used by commercial treatment planning systems (TPSs) for high-dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy is derived from point and line source approximation method recommended by AAPM Task Group 43 (TG-43). However, the study of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is required in order to assess the accuracy of dose calculation around three-dimensional Ir-192 source. In this study, geometry factor was calculated using segmented sources integration method by dividing microSelectron HDR Ir-192 source into smaller parts. The Monte Carlo code (MCNPX 2.5.0) was used to calculate the dose rate $\dot{D}(r,\theta)$ at a point ($r,\theta$) away from a HDR Ir-192 source in spherical water phantom with 30 cm diameter. Finally, anisotropy function and radial dose function were calculated from obtained results. The obtained geometry factor was compared with that calculated from line source approximation. Similarly, obtained anisotropy function and radial dose function were compared with those derived from MCPT results by Williamson. The geometry factor calculated from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was within 0.2% for $r{\geq}0.5$ cm and 1.33% for r=0.1 cm, respectively. The relative-root mean square error (R-RMSE) of anisotropy function obtained by this study and Williamson was 2.33% for r=0.25 cm and within 1% for r>0.5 cm, respectively. The R-RMSE of radial dose function was 0.46% at radial distance from 0.1 to 14.0 cm. The geometry factor acquired from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was in good agreement for $r{\geq}0.1$ cm. However, application of segmented sources integration method seems to be valid, since this method using three-dimensional Ir-192 source provides more realistic geometry factor. The anisotropy function and radial dose function estimated from MCNPX in this study and MCPT by Williamson are in good agreement within uncertainty of Monte Carlo codes except at radial distance of r=0.25 cm. It is expected that Monte Carlo code used in this study could be applied to other sources utilized for brachytherapy.

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.4
    • /
    • pp.43-71
    • /
    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

  • PDF

A Study on LRFD Reliability Based Design Criteria of RC Flexural Members (R.C. 휨부재(部材)의 L.R.F.D. 신뢰성(信賴性) 설계기준(設計基準)에 관한 연구(研究))

  • Cho, Hyo Nam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-32
    • /
    • 1981
  • Recent trends in design standards development in some European countries and U.S.A. have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability based design criteria such as LSD, LRFD, PBLSD, adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design process and placing it on a consistent reliability bases for various construction materials. A reliability based design criteria for RC flexural members are proposed in this study. Lind-Hasofer's invariant second-moment reliability theory is used in the derivation of an algorithmic reliability analysis method as well as an iterative determination of load and resistance factors. In addition, Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis and the derivation of design criteria. Uncertainty measures for flexural resistance and load effects are based on the Ellingwood's approach for the evaluation of uncertainties of loads and resistances. The implied relative safety levels of RC flexural members designed by the strength design provisions of the current standard code were evaluated using the second moment reliability analysis method proposed in this study. And then, resistance and load factors corresponding to the target reliability index(${\beta}=4$) which is considered to be appropriate level of reliability considering our practices are calculated by using the proposed methods. These reliability based factors were compared to those specified by our current ultimate strength design provisions. It was found that the reliability levels of flexural members designed by current code are not appropriate, and the code specified resistance and load factors were considerably different from the reliability based resistance and load factors proposed in this study.

  • PDF

Development of Devices for Improving the Reducibility of Patient Positioning on a Breast Board (Breast Board를 이용한 방사선치료에서 환자 위치 재현성 향상 방안에 대한 연구)

  • Huh Soon Nyung;Cho Woong;Park Yang Kyun;Ha Sung Whan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.123-130
    • /
    • 2005
  • Purpose: We wanted to improve the setup reproducibility of breast cancer patients when utilizing a commercially available breast board for radiation therapy. The breast board was modified by using a new head rest and 2 types of board fixation devices. Materials and Methods: A conventional head/neck rest was modified to be positioned in various slots of the breast board, and it was fabricated 1 cm thinner to provide more comfort to a patient when the patient's neck was rotated. This rest improves the uncertainty of the daily setup. Also, the sagging problems at the left and right sides became negligible with the two types of board fixation devices: (1) the stair type, and (2) the arm type. The first device consists of an upper/lower holder with 4 stair-types of grooves and 4 rectangular Inserts. In order to cover the whole range of vertical setup of the breast board, 4 rectangular inserts were needed, and each covered 10 steps. The arm-type fixation device was also fabricated and attached to the breast board, It had two aluminum bars that were fixed by utilizing a lock-type of screw. These devises were evaluated with two volunteers in order to prove the effectiveness of the improved setup accuracy. Results; The developed cranio-caudal fixation device demonstrated that it could reduce the cranio-caudal error by nearly $55\%$ compared to the old device. As for left-and-right inclination, the stair-type and arm-type fixation devices can reduce the relative inclination by nearly $80\%$ and $90\%$, respectively, compared to the breast board without the fixation device. Conclusion: It was verified that the developed devices were effective for positioning the patients and for avoiding inclination of the breast board.

The Non-Destructive Determination of Heavy Metals in Welding Fume by EDXRF (EDXRF에 의한 용접흄 중의 중금속의 비파괴 정량)

  • Park, Seunghyun;Jeong, Jee Yeon;Ryoo, Jang Jin;Lee, Naroo;Yu, Il Je;Song, Kyung Seuk;Lee, Yong Hag;Han, Jeong Hee;Kim, Sung Jin;Park, Jung sun;Chung, Ho Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
    • /
    • v.11 no.3
    • /
    • pp.229-234
    • /
    • 2001
  • The EDXRF(Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer) technique was applied to the determination of heavy metals in welding fume. The EDXRF method designed in this study was a non-destructive analysis method. Samples were analyzed directly by EDXRF without any pre-treatment such as digestion and dilution. The samples used to evaluate this method were laboratory samples exposed in a chamber connected with a welding fume generator. The samples were first analyzed using a non-destructive EDXRF method. The samples subsequently were analyzed using AAS method to verify accuray of the EDXRF method. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the possibility of the non-destructive analysis of heavy metals in welding fume by EDXRF. The results of this study were as follow: 1.When the samples were collected under the open-face sampling condition, a surface distribution of welding fume particles on sample filters was uniform, which made non-destructive analysis possible. 2. The method was statistically evaluated according to the NIOSH(National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) and HSE(Health and Safety Executive) method. 3. The overall precision of the EDXRF method Was calculated at 3.45 % for Cr, 2.57 % for Fe and 3.78 % for Mn as relative standard deviation(RSD), respectively. The limits of detection were calculated at $0.46{\mu}g$/sample for Cr, $0.20{\mu}g$/sample for Fe and $1.14{\mu}g$/sample for Mn, respectively. 4. A comparison between the results of Cr, Fe, Mn analyzed by EDXRF and AAS was made in order to assess the accuracy of EDXRF method. The correlation coefficient between the results of EDXRF and AAS was 0.9985 for Cr, 0.9995 for Fe and 0.9982 for Mn, respectively. The overall uncertainty was determined to be ${\pm}12.31%$, 8.64 % and 11.91 % for Cr, Fe and Mn, respectively. In conclusion, this study showed that Cr, Fe, Mn in welding fume were successfully analyzed by the EDXRF without any sample pre-treatment such as digestion and dilution and a good correlation between the results of EDXRF and AAS was obtained. It was thus possible to use the EDXRF technique as an analysis method of working environment samples. The EDXRF method was an efficient method in a non-destructive analysis of heavy metals in welding fume.

  • PDF

The Effect of Consumers' Value Motives on the Perception of Blog Reviews Credibility: the Moderation Effect of Tie Strength (소비자의 가치 추구 동인이 블로그 리뷰의 신뢰성 지각에 미치는 영향: 유대강도에 따른 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Min Jung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.159-189
    • /
    • 2012
  • What attracts consumers to bloggers' reviews? Consumers would be attracted both by the Bloggers' expertise (i.e., knowledge and experience) and by his/her unbiased manner of delivering information. Expertise and trustworthiness are both virtues of information sources, particularly when there is uncertainty in decision-making. Noting this point, we postulate that consumers' motives determine the relative weights they place on expertise and trustworthiness. In addition, our hypotheses assume that tie strength moderates consumers' expectation on bloggers' expertise and trustworthiness: with expectation on expertise enhanced for power-blog user-group (weak-ties), and an expectation on trustworthiness elevated for personal-blog user-group (strong-ties). Finally, we theorize that the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review is moderated by tie strength; the predictive power of credibility is more prominent for the personal-blog user-groups than for the power-blog user groups. To support these assumptions, we conducted a field survey with blog users, collecting retrospective self-report data. The "gourmet shop" was chosen as a target product category, and obtained data analyzed by structural equations modeling. Findings from these data provide empirical support for our theoretical predictions. First, we found that the purposive motive aimed at satisfying instrumental information needs increases reliance on bloggers' expertise, but interpersonal connectivity value for alleviating loneliness elevates reliance on bloggers' trustworthiness. Second, expertise-based credibility is more prominent for power-blog user-groups than for personal-blog user-groups. While strong ties attract consumers with trustworthiness based on close emotional bonds, weak ties gain consumers' attention with new, non-redundant information (Levin & Cross, 2004). Thus, when the existing knowledge system, used in strong ties, does not work as smoothly for addressing an impending problem, the weak-tie source can be utilized as a handy reference. Thus, we can anticipate that power bloggers secure credibility by virtue of their expertise while personal bloggers trade off on their trustworthiness. Our analysis demonstrates that power bloggers appeal more strongly to consumers than do personal bloggers in the area of expertise-based credibility. Finally, the effect of review credibility on willingness to accept a review is higher for the personal-blog user-group than for the power-blog user-group. Actually, the inference that review credibility is a potent predictor of assessing willingness to accept a review is grounded on the analogy that attitude is an effective indicator of purchase intention. However, if memory about established attitudes is blocked, the predictive power of attitude on purchase intention is considerably diminished. Likewise, the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review can be affected by certain moderators. Inspired by this analogy, we introduced tie strength as a possible moderator and demonstrated that tie strength moderated the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review. Previously, Levin and Cross (2004) showed that credibility mediates strong-ties through receipt of knowledge, but this credibility mediation is not observed for weak-ties, where a direct path to it is activated. Thus, the predictive power of credibility on behavioral intention - that is, willingness to accept a review - is expected to be higher for strong-ties.

  • PDF

A Study of the Influencing Factors for Decision Making on Construction Contract Types : Focused on DoD Construction Acquisitions with Firm Fixed Price and Cost Reimbursable in FAR (건설공사 대가지급방식의 의사결정 영향요인에 관한 연구 - 미국 연방조달규정에 따른 미국 국방성의 정액계약과 실비정산계약을 중심으로 -)

  • Son, Young-Hoon;Kim, Kyung-Rai
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.23-35
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study analyzed the correlation between each of the 12 influencing factors in FAR 16.04 and the decision-making process for construction contract types, using data from a total of 2,406 DoD Construction Acquisitions spanning from 2008 to 2022. The study considered 12 independent variables, grouped into 4 Characteristics with 3 factors each. Meanwhile, all other contract types were categorized into two types: Firm-Fixed-Price (FFP) and Cost-Reimbursement Contract (CRC), which served as the dependent variables. The findings revealed that FFP contracts significantly dominated in terms of acquisition volume. In line with prevailing beliefs, logistic data analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis of Relative Weights from Experts' Survey demonstrated that independent variables like Uncertainty of the Scope of Work and Complexity found out to be increasing the likelihood of selecting CRC. The number of contractors in the market does indeed influence the possibilities of contract decision-making between CRC and FFP. Meanwhile, the p-values of the top 3 influencing factors on CRC from the AHP analysis-namely, Appropriateness of CAS, Project Urgency, and Cost Analysis-exceeded 0.05 in the binominal regression results, rendering it inconclusive whether they significantly influenced the construction contract type decision, particularly with respect to payment methods. This outcome partly results from the fact that a majority of respondents possessed specific experiences related to the USFK relocation project. Furthermore, influencing factors in construction projects behave differently than common beliefs suggest. As a result, it is imperative to consider the 12 influencing factors categorized into 4 Characteristics areas before establishing acquisition strategies for targeted construction projects.