• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.80-85
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• 2014

A survey of risk perception in South Korea was conducted in 2007 to evaluate relative riskiness of typical industrial and technological risks. This article summarizes the characteristics of risk perception using psychometric analyses. The survey with a sample size of 1,194 reviews the perceived level of 25 risk items in the areas of transportation, chemicals, environment, industry, nuclear power generation, and newly-introduced risks. Six categories of risk identified by a factor analysis show that the level of perceived risk does not correspond to the statistical level. Psychometric analyses including voluntariness, severity, effect manifestation, exposure pattern, controllability, familiarity, benefit and necessity demonstrate that voluntary, familiar and immediate risks are perceived as less risky than involuntary, unfamiliar and delayed ones. Risk communication is critical in reducing the discrepance between objective and subjective level of risk. However, the amount of risk information does not always justify a successful risk communication. A safety policy, risk communication strategy in particular, should take into account diverse dimensions of risk reviewed by psychometric analyses in the study. Social policy toward safety can be improved by integrating policy, human, and social factors as well as technological advances.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.181-187
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• 2004

One of objectives in epidemiologic studies is to detect the amount of change caused by a specific risk factor. Risk ratio is one of the most useful measurements in epidemiology. When we perform the inference for this measurement with rare events, the standard approach based on the normal approximation may fail, in particular when there are no disease cases observed. In this paper, we discuss and evaluate several existing methods for constructing a confidence interval of risk ratio through simulation when the disease of interest is a rare event. The results in this paper provide guidance with how to construct interval estimates for risk difference and risk ratio when there are no disease cases observed.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2013년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.387-389
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• 2013

In order to determine the collision risk, the probability estimation is very important part for accurate risk estimation. Recently, the collision risk at the Busan North Port is studied for making the risk map by authors. The result has been found some connections with previous collision places. For more precise estimation, the probability calculation is necessary. Recently the Bayesian matrix is mainly used for calculating the probabilities. Also considering the oil spill risk with tankers, ships' speed, relative angle and ships' size are key aspect whether breaking the double hull or not. This research presents the way of estimating the probabilities not her research and also the collision risk probability considerations for small divided areas.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.139-150
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• 2019

우리나라 해역에서 발생하는 해양사고 중 어선사고가 약 70 %를 차지하고 있음에도 불구하고, 대부분의 연구는 해양사고 전체를 대상으로 하고 있으며 단순히 사고 발생률에 대한 분석과 사고 발생 빈도를 줄이기 위한 대책 마련에 중점을 두고 있다. 그러나 효과적인 사고 저감 대책의 수립과 이를 실행하기 위해서는 정량적인 사고 위험도 예측 및 평가가 반드시 선행되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 해양안전심판원의 최근 5년간의 어선사고 통계에 근거하여 9가지 사고유형에 대한 위험도를 연도별로 비교하였다. 또한 현재 우리나라의 경우 객관적인 위험도 평가기준이 없다는 점을 고려하여 이에 대한 대안으로 사고 유형별 사고 빈도와 사고 피해의 조합을 4사분면 상에 표시하는 2차원 사고 빈도-피해 매트릭스를 제안하고 이를 이용하여 사고 빈도와 사고 피해의 영향을 쉽게 확인할 수 있도록 하였다. 이러한 과정을 통한 위험도 평가 결과는 저감대책을 수립하고 안전대책을 마련하는 정책 제안자로 하여금 보다 다양하고 현실적인 사고 저감 대책을 마련하는데 도움을 줄 것이다. 또한 위험도 평가 매트릭스를 이용하여 각 사고유형에 대한 인적오류를 포함한 사고 원인의 상대적인 빈도 및 결과를 비교함으로써 사고 유형별로 원인에 따른 차별화된 위험 저감 대책을 수립할 수 있다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.627-638
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• 1998

For any hazardous operation or risky project to be carried out safely and economically, it is of the utmost importance to formulate proper risk management policies based on the rational assessment of the risk levels of various potential hazards. In this paper, a Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making(FMCDM) method for risk assessment is proposed. The method evaluates, on the basis of fuzzy set theory, the risk level of a risky situation by aggregating the assessed levels of risk factors and their subjective weights. The method also allows some flexibility for the future users in the sense that, first, the relative importance weights for the three risk factors can be adjusted according to the nature of projects or systems and, second, the users have the choice between the two types of risk assessment results, that is, the assessed risk levels or the ranks of the risk situations. A numerical example for the proposed FMCDM method is provided to illustrate the computational procedure. To see how the suggested FMCDM method describes well people's perceived risk level, we compared the risk values derived from the suggested method with the subjective risk evaluations for ten risky situations.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2015년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.163-164
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• 2015

본 연구는 컨테이너터미널의 리스크 관리 방안으로 터미널 내의 안전사고를 중심으로 운영사의 사고유형에 따라 각 사고의 발생빈도와 심각도를 산정한 후 상대적인 리스크를 평가하였다. 상대적인 리스크를 기준으로 리스크 감소 대책에 대한 우선순위를 선정하였으며 각 안전사고 유형에 대한 리스크 관리 방안을 제안하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.451-458
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• 2013

This research documents the initial findings and recommendations for developing a risk management tool to assess and quantify the risks associated with the construction of the next generation of nuclear power plants. The proposed tool builds upon the Construction Industry Institute's International Project Risk Assessment (IPRA) Best Practice. This paper provides an overview of the investigation to assess the unique risk elements pertaining to nuclear power plant construction and documents the preliminary findings from historical project performance data to better understand the function and use of the IPRA's Relative Impact value.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.175-181
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• 2005

Objectives: This study estimated the burden of disease due to high alcohol consumption using DALY, a composite indicator recently developed by the Global Burden of Disease study group. The results were analyzed by age and sex. Methods: Firstly, high alcohol consumption-related diseases, and their relative risk (RR), were selected. Secondly, population attributable fractions (PAFs) were computed using formulae, including the relative risk (RR) and prevalence of exposure (Pe). Thirdly, the DALYs of high alcohol consumption-related diseases were estimated. Lastly, the attributable burdens of diseases due to high alcohol consumption wereconcluded as being the sum of the products that multiplied the DALYs of high alcohol consumption-related diseases by their population attributable fraction (PAF). Results : The burden of high alcohol consumption in Korea was 2992.3 person years (PYs) per 100,000 persons in men, and 1426.6 in women. For men, the high alcohol consumption-induced diseases with the five biggest burdens were liver cirrhosis, hypertensive disease, liver cancer, cerebral infarction and intracerebral hemorrhage. For women, these were cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, hypertensive disease, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Conclusion: This study highlighted the attributable fraction of diseases due to exposure to high alcohol consumption, by quantifying the results of exposure to risk factors. Therefore, it is now possible to assess interventions for risk factors in quantifiable terms in each population. Finally, measuring the risk factor burdens was expected to contribute to priority setting and effective resource allocation in public health policy.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.20-27
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• 2003

화학공장은 위험한 물리 화학적 특성을 가진 많은 물질들을 다루기 때문에 다른 어떤 공장보다 더 사고의 위험성이 크다. 띠라서 화학공장에서의 각 장치에 대한 위험성 평가는 반드시 필요하다. 현재 사용되고 있는 위험성 평가 방법은 정성적 또는 정량적인 방법으로 각각 개별적으로 적용되는데 정성적, 정량적의 통합된 방법을 적용하면 빠르고 쉽게 적용할 수 있다는 정성적인 방법의 장점과 정밀하게 평가될 수 있다는 정량적인 방법의 장점을 모두 갖출 수 있다. 이러한 통합된 위험성 평가방법을 적용하고 자동화한 ASCA(Automated System for Hazard Screening & Analysis)라는 S/W를 개발하여 실제 공정에 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 방향족 긍정 중 H.T.U(Hydrotreating Unit)에 대하여 ASCA를 적용하여 각 장치의 상대 순위를 알아보고 D-101이라는 저장탱크에서 단열 실패로 온도 상승이 일어난 경우의 장치고장으로 인한 변수 이상과 발생 가능한 사고의 영향을 알아보았다. 이러한 통합 위험성 평가 시스템을 화학공장에 적용하여 봄으로써 사고 시나리오를 세워서 사고에 대한 비상사태를 대처할 수 있는 능력을 키울 수 있으며 사고를 예방할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.13-21
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• 2019

Leakage accidents in businesses dealing with hazardous chemicals can have a great impact on the workers inside the workplace, as well as residents outside the workplace. In fact, there were cases where hazardous chemicals leaked from many businesses. As a result, the Chemicals Control Act(CCA) was enacted in 2015, the Ministry of Environment introduced an Off-site Risk Assessment(ORA). The purpose of the ORA is to secure safety from the installation of the design of the workplace facilities so that chemical accidents of hazardous chemical handling facilities do not cause human or physical damage outside the workplace. In general, the ORA qualitatively determines where a protected facility is within the scope of the accident scenario. However, elderly who belong to the sensitive group is more sensitive than the general group under the same chemical accident effect, and the extent of the damage is serious. According to data from the Korea National Statistic Office, the number of elderly people is expected to increase steadily. Therefore, a quantitative risk analysis considering the elderly is necessary as a result of a chemical accident. In this study, accident scenarios for 14 locations were set up to perform emergency evacuation due to toxic gas leakage of Cl₂(Chlorine) and HF(Hydrogen Fluoride), and the effects of exposure were analyzed based on the evacuation velocity difference of age 20s and 60s. The ALOHA(Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) program was used to calculate the concentration for assessing the effects. The time of exposure to toxic gas was calculated based on the time it took for the evacuation to run from the start point to the desired point and a methodology was devised that could be applied to the risk calculation. As a result of the study, the relative risk of the elderly, the sensitive group, needs to be determined.