• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regressive modeling

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The Spatial Statistical Relationships between Road-traffic Noise and Urban Components Including Population, Building, Road-traffic and Land-use (공간통계모형을 이용한 도로 소음과 도시 구성 요소의 관계 연구)

  • Ryu, Hunjae;Park, In Kwon;Chang, Seo Il;Chun, Bum Seok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.348-356
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    • 2014
  • To understand the relationship between road-traffic noise and urban components such as population, building, road-traffic and land-use, the city of Cheongju that already has road-traffic noise maps of daytime and nighttime was selected for this study. The whole area of the city is divided into square cells of a uniform size and for each cell, the urban components are estimated. A spatial representative noise level for each cell is determined by averaging out population-weighted facade noise levels for noise exposure population within the cell during nighttime. The relationship between the representative noise level and the urban components is statistically modeled at the cell level. Specially, we introduce a spatial auto regressive model and a spatial error model that turns out to explain above 85 % of the noise level. These findings and modeling methods can be used as a preliminary tool for environmental planning and urban design in modern cities in consideration of noise exposure.

Modeling of Train Radio Propagation Affected by Ground Reflected Wave in High-speed Railway (고속철도 지면반사파를 고려한 열차무선 전파모델)

  • Bae, Sung-Ho;Song, Ki-Hong;Choi, Kyu-Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.460-465
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    • 2013
  • Radio propagation in a high-speed railway is affected by ground reflective waves that are due to irregular reflection by the railway track, which consists of rails, sleepers, and gravel. This paper provides a train radio propagation model that simulates an irregular track reflective wave as a random variable. A simulation study using the train radio propagation model shows that the path loss exponent is around 3.0, indicating a reduced path loss compared to the value of 4.0 in the general mobile radio environment. Regressive analysis of the received signal strength indicators measured in the Gyeongbu high-speed railway showed the results identical to those of the simulation. These results confirm the train radio propagation model and can be applied to the coverage estimation and the design of a train radio network.

A Prospect for Supply and Demand of Physical Therapists in Korea Through 2030 (물리치료사 인력의 수급전망과 정책방향)

  • Oh, Youngho
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.149-169
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    • 2018
  • Purpose : This study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the South Korea into 2030. Methods : In-and-out movement model was used to project the supply of physical therapists. The demand was projected according to the demand-based method which consists of four-stages such as estimation of the utilization rate of the base year, forecasting of health care utilization of the target years, forecasting of the requirements of clinical physical therapists and non-clinical physical therapists based on the projected physical therapists. Results : Based on the current productivity standards, there will be oversupply of 39,007 to 40,875 physical therapists under the demand scenario of average rate in 2030, undersupply of 44,663 to 49,885 under the demand scenario of logistic model, oversupply of 16,378 to 19,100 under the demand scenario of logarithm, and oversupply of 18,185 to 20,839 under the demand scenario of auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model in 2030. Conclusion : The result of this projection suggests that the direction and degree of supply of and demand for physical therapists varied depending on physical therapists productivity and utilization growth scenarios. However, the need for introduction of a professional physical therapist system and the need to provide long-term care rehabilitation services are actively being discussed in entering the aging society. If community rehabilitation programs for rehabilitation of disabled people and the elderly are activated, the demand of physical therapists will increase, especially for elderly people. Therefore, healthcare policy should focus on establishing rehabilitation service infrastructure suitable for an aging society, providing high-quality physical therapy services, and effective utilization of physical therapists.

Process Fault Probability Generation via ARIMA Time Series Modeling of Etch Tool Data

  • Arshad, Muhammad Zeeshan;Nawaz, Javeria;Park, Jin-Su;Shin, Sung-Won;Hong, Sang-Jeen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2012.02a
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    • pp.241-241
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    • 2012
  • Semiconductor industry has been taking the advantage of improvements in process technology in order to maintain reduced device geometries and stringent performance specifications. This results in semiconductor manufacturing processes became hundreds in sequence, it is continuously expected to be increased. This may in turn reduce the yield. With a large amount of investment at stake, this motivates tighter process control and fault diagnosis. The continuous improvement in semiconductor industry demands advancements in process control and monitoring to the same degree. Any fault in the process must be detected and classified with a high degree of precision, and it is desired to be diagnosed if possible. The detected abnormality in the system is then classified to locate the source of the variation. The performance of a fault detection system is directly reflected in the yield. Therefore a highly capable fault detection system is always desirable. In this research, time series modeling of the data from an etch equipment has been investigated for the ultimate purpose of fault diagnosis. The tool data consisted of number of different parameters each being recorded at fixed time points. As the data had been collected for a number of runs, it was not synchronized due to variable delays and offsets in data acquisition system and networks. The data was then synchronized using a variant of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was then applied on the synchronized data. The ARIMA model combines both the Autoregressive model and the Moving Average model to relate the present value of the time series to its past values. As the new values of parameters are received from the equipment, the model uses them and the previous ones to provide predictions of one step ahead for each parameter. The statistical comparison of these predictions with the actual values, gives us the each parameter's probability of fault, at each time point and (once a run gets finished) for each run. This work will be extended by applying a suitable probability generating function and combining the probabilities of different parameters using Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST). DST provides a way to combine evidence that is available from different sources and gives a joint degree of belief in a hypothesis. This will give us a combined belief of fault in the process with a high precision.

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Water temperature assessment on the small ecological stream under climate change (기후변화에 따른 소하천에서의 수온 모의연구)

  • Park, Jung Sool;Kim, Sam Eun;Kwak, Jaewon;Kim, Jungwook;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.313-323
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    • 2016
  • Water temperature affects physical and biological processes in ecologies on river system and is important conditions for growth rate and spawning of fish species. The objective of this study is to compare models for water temperature during the summer season for the Fourchue River (St-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska, Quebec, Canada). For this, three different models, which are CEQUEAU, Auto-regressive Moving Average with eXogenous input and Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous input, were applied and compared. Also, future water temperature in the Fourchue river were simulated and analyzed its result based on the CMIP5 climate models, RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 climate change scenarios. As the result of the study, the water temperature in the Fourchue river are actually changed and median water temperature will increase $0.2{\sim}0.7^{\circ}C$ in June and could decrease by $0.2{\sim}1.1^{\circ}C$ in September. Also, the UILT ($24.9^{\circ}C$) for brook trout are also likely to occurred for several days.

Realization a Text Independent Speaker Identification System with Frame Level Likelihood Normalization (프레임레벨유사도정규화를 적용한 문맥독립화자식별시스템의 구현)

  • 김민정;석수영;김광수;정현열
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.8-14
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we realized a real-time text-independent speaker recognition system using gaussian mixture model, and applied frame level likelihood normalization method which shows its effects in verification system. The system has three parts as front-end, training, recognition. In front-end part, cepstral mean normalization and silence removal method were applied to consider speaker's speaking variations. In training, gaussian mixture model was used for speaker's acoustic feature modeling, and maximum likelihood estimation was used for GMM parameter optimization. In recognition, likelihood score was calculated with speaker models and test data at frame level. As test sentences, we used text-independent sentences. ETRI 445 and KLE 452 database were used for training and test, and cepstrum coefficient and regressive coefficient were used as feature parameters. The experiment results show that the frame-level likelihood method's recognition result is higher than conventional method's, independently the number of registered speakers.

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Longitudinal Analysis on the Reciprocal Relationship between Depression and Marital Satisfaction among Older Couples (노년기 부부의 우울과 부부관계만족도 간의 종단적 관계)

  • Heo, Sun-Young;Ha, Jung-Hwa
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.421-444
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this research is to examine the reciprocal relationships between depression and marital satisfaction among older couples. For longitudinal dyadic analysis, this study sets up a research model based on the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model, the Common Fate Model, and Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Model. Data came from four annual waves from the 10th year (2015) to the 13th year (2018) of the Korean Welfare Panel Survey and the final sample comprised a total of 1,383 married couples over 60 years of age in 2015. Structural Equation Modeling identified the reciprocal relationship between depression and marital satisfaction among older couples, with higher marital satisfaction of older couples leading to lower depression of husbands' and wives', and with higher depression of husbands' and wives' inducing lower marital satisfaction of the couples. Thus, this study suggested that longitudinal interplay between depression and marital satisfaction can lead to a vicious cycle. Based on these findings, the need to intervene at both the individual level and the couple level was discussed in order to reduce depression and improve marital satisfaction.