• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.957-968
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• 2021

역중도절단확률가중(inverse censoring probability weighting, ICPW)은 생존분석에서 흔히 사용되는 방법이다. 중도절단 회귀모형과 같은 ICPW 방법의 응용에 있어서 중도절단 확률의 정확한 추정은 핵심적인 요소라고 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 중도절단 확률의 추정이 ICPW 기반 중도절단 회귀모형의 성능에 어떠한 영향을 주는지 모의실험을 통하여 알아보았다. 모의실험에서는 Kaplan-Meier 추정량, Cox 비례위험(proportional hazard) 모형 추정량, 그리고 국소 Kaplan-Meier 추정량 세 가지를 비교하였다. 국소 KM 추정량에 대해서는 차원의 저주를 피하기 위해 공변량의 차원축소 방법을 추가적으로 적용하였다. 차원축소 방법으로는 흔히 사용되는 주성분분석(principal component analysis, PCA)과 절단역회귀(sliced inverse regression)방법을 고려하였다. 그 결과 Cox 비례위험 추정량이 평균 및 중위수 중도절단 회귀모형 모두에서 중도절단 확률을 추정하는 데 가장 좋은 성능을 보여주었다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.164-178
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• 2022

주요 곡물 생산 지역에 대한 작황 계절 예측을 위해 작물모형과 기상 예보자료들이 활용되고 있다. 이 때, 작물모형의 입력자료로 활용되는 기상자료의 불확실성이 작황 예측 결과에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상 예보자료에 따른 작물모형 결과에 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 하였다. 주요 곡물 생산 지역인 미국의 콘벨트 지역을 대상으로 중규모 수치예보 모형인 Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)로 10km 해상도의 계절 예측 자료를 생산하였다. 보다 상세한 기상 예보자료 생산을 가정하기 위해 통계적 기법인 Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) 기법을 활용하여 WRF 자료를 기반으로 5km 해상도로 예측 자료를 생산하였다. WRF와 PRISM 계절 예측 자료로 CROPGRO-SOYBEAN 모형을 구동하여 두 기상 예보자료에 따른 작물 생육 모의 결과를 얻었다. 2011~2018 기간에 대하여 4월 10일부터 8일 간격으로 11개의 파종일을 설정하였으며, 3개의 콩 성숙군에 대한 품종 모수가 사용되었다. 기상 자료의 불확실성을 파악하기 위해 작물 재배기간 동안의 누적 생육도일과 누적 일사량을 비교하였다. 예측된 수량 및 성숙일 등의 주요 변수들을 비교하였다. 두 기상 자료로부터 얻어진 변수들 사이의 일치도 통계량 계산을 위해 root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) 및 structural similarity(SSIM) index가 사용되었다. WRF와 PRISM에서 계산된 누적 생육도일 사이의 일치도가 낮았던 연도에 콩 성숙일 모의 값에 대한 오차가 크게 나타났다. 콩 모의 수량 또한 성숙일 및 온도의 오차가 크게 나타났던 연도에 상대적으로 낮은 일치도를 가졌다. 또한 파종일이 수량 및 성숙일 예측의 일치도에 상당한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 WRF와 PRISM 자료 사이에 온도 자료의 불확실성이 작황 예측의 불확실성에 영향을 주었으며, 재배 시기에 따라 그 불확도의 크기가 상이할 수 있음을 암시하였다. 따라서 신뢰도 높은 작황 예측 자료 생산을 위해 작물별 재배기간을 고려한 불확실성 평가 등의 추가적인 연구가 진행되어야 할 것으로 보인다.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한예방의학회 1994년도 교수 연수회(환경)
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• pp.577-584
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• 1994

The relation between lead in air (PbA) and lead in blood (PbB), concentrations was investigated among 44 workers in five major operations in a United States high volume, lead acid battery plant. The study covered a 30 month period in which workers received frequent PbA and PbB determinations, workers remained in a single job, and PbA concentrations averaged below the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit of $50{\mu}g/m^{3}$. In both univariate and multivariable linear regressions, longitudinal analyses averaging PbA concentrations over the 30 month study period appeared superior to cross sectional analyses using only six month PbA averages .to model PbB concentrations. The covariate adjusted coefficient ($\alpha$ value) for PbA($\mu/m^{3}$) in models of PbB (${\mu}g/100\;g$) was 1-14. This figure is strikingly higher than that reported in previous studies in the lead acid battery industry in all of which PbA concentrations were substantially higher than in the current study. Plausible explanations for the differences in a: values include non-linearity of the PbA-PbB curve, a higher fraction of large size particulate associated with higher PbA concentrations, survivor bias among workers exposed to higher PbA concentrations, and the cross sectional designs of most previous studies. Despite previously reported problems with the model used by OSHA to predict PbA-PbB relations, the findings of this study are in good agreement with the predictions of that model.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.857-870
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• 2010

국립축산과학원에서는 2006년 부터 2008년 까지 전국 소비자들을 대상으로 한우 거세우 표본 시료에 대한 관능 평가 조사를 실시하여 데이터를 수집하였으며 본 연구에서는 한우 관능 평가 데이터에 대해 사회 인구학적 요인과 한국 소비자들의 맛 평가에 대한 연관성을 탐구하고자 한다. 소비자 거주지역, 연령, 성별, 직업, 월수입과 쇠고기 부위를 설명변수로 맛등급 평가를 반응변수로 이항 다중 로지스틱 모형과 다항 다중 로지스틱 모형을 적합하고 회귀계수별 유의성 검정과 적합도 검정을 실시한다. 단계별 변수 선택으로 최종 모형을 선택하고 반응변수 범주에 대한 오즈비를 계산하여 맛등급과 설명변수들 간의 관련성을 파악한다. 또한 맛과 관련 있는 연속형 변수를 설명변수로 포함한 경우에 대해서도 이항 다중 로지스틱 모형과 다항 다중 로지스틱 모형을 적합하고 비교한다. 그 결과 거주 지역, 연령, 월수입과 쇠고기 부위 변수들이 선택되었으며 영남지역에서 맛에 대한 오즈가 큰 편이며 수입이 많고 연령이 높을수록 맛에 대한 오즈가 작은 편이었다. 요리법으로는 탕에 대한 구이의 오즈비가 큰 편이며 쇠고기 부위별로는 우둔에 비해서 등심이 다른 부위들 보다 맛에 대한 차이가 크다고 볼 수 있다. 연속형 변수로는 연도가 맛등급에 큰 영향을 미치는 변수로 나타났다.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.125-133
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• 2014

The purpose of this study was to find the role of participation in common activities and satisfaction with common space in a tentative housing adjustment framework for Swedish cohousing residents, applying the housing adjustment behavior model of Morris and Winter (1978, 1996). The data used for this research were a subset of data Choi and Paulsson (2011) surveyed from 12 Swedish cohousing units. Number of 216 cases whose age was 40 and over were selected and analyzed with Pearson correlations and hierarchical linear regressions by SPSS. The regression analyses included four main concepts as endogenous variables, which were participation in common activities, satisfaction with common space, overall life satisfaction, and intention to move out. The results showed that participation in common activities raised satisfaction with common space and overall life satisfaction but reduced intention to move out. Meanwhile, satisfaction with common space diminished intention to move out but did not impact overall life satisfaction. When overall life satisfaction was added to the final regression model, the direct impacts of security reasons, participation in common activities, and satisfaction with common space on intention to move out disappeared. It may be concluded that participation in common activities and satisfaction with common space acted as intervening variables in the tentative cohousing adjustment framework. Even though this study leaves further research on specifying the framework, it may be noteworthy as a first attempt that explains the flow of main concepts. This study may broaden the possibility of empirical studies to develop an analytical path model of housing adjustment for cohousing residents.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권7호
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• pp.491-500
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• 2009

In order to attract more transshipment cargoes, Busan Port Authority (BPA) has, since 2003, adopted the volume incentive policy by which more than US$ 10 million annually have been paid back to shipping lines that were called at the port. However, having been a transshipment port for the Northeast region of China, the port of Busan has come under threat from bold Chinese port development projects, notably Shanghai, as northern Chinese regionnl ports place more emphasis on building facilities capable of handling growing trade volumes. Undoubtedly this would lead to a decline in transshipment container traffic moved via Busan. The purpose of this paper is to identify some core factors that have been affecting the increase of transshipment cargoes of Busan and further to recommend BPA an improved incentive scheme with which more T/S cargoes can be attracted into the port of Busan To clarity the reason why T/S cargoes have increased in the port of Busan, several steps are made as follows: The first step is to make a quantitative model for explaining the development of T/S cargoes during the last decade. The second step is to define the dependent and the independent variables for multiple regressions after testing variable significance. For this, data collection and the accuracy of validation have been done by the direct interview with the experienced staffs in shipping companies of both domestic and foreign country. After validating the model with collected data, the final step is to find variables which are explaining the model mostly. In conclusion, 2 variables were clearly identified as core factors that explain well the development of T/S cargoes in the port of Busan: 'Mohring effect' and total cost. It is strongly recommended, by an empirical study, that an incentive scheme be changed to a way which more feeder vessels rather than mother vessels can reduce their direct costs to call in the port of Busan.

• Human Ecology Research
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• 제58권4호
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• pp.517-537
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• 2020

This study investigated how consumers and company employees differ in their perceptions of boycotts based on the co-orientation model. Regarding the reasons of boycotts, consumers take both consumer damage cases and unethical conduct equally seriously, while company employees take consumer damage cases more seriously than unethical conduct. Consumer perceptions of the necessity for boycotts was higher than company employees, while employees were more aware of the negative impact of boycotts than consumers. Based on the co-orientation model, we examined how consumers and employees estimate differences in their perceptions of boycotts. The results showed that consumers and company employees are not accurately aware of each other's perceptions. Lastly, logistic regressions were conducted to identify the factors affecting three types of participation: online opinion expression, personal non-purchasing, and persuading other people to join the boycotts. The results showed that male consumers are more likely to participate in online opinion expression; consumer perceptions of effectiveness of boycotts and the perceived severity of consumer damage increase the likelihood of participation in online opinion expression. Consumer perceptions of the necessity of boycotts and their opinion leadership increased the likelihood of non-purchasing. Finally, consumers with higher opinion leadership and female consumers were more likely to encourage others to take part in boycotts. In addition, consumers are more likely to persuade others to join the boycotts if they have stronger beliefs that companies will not seriously consider consumer problems.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.233-250
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• 2012

In this paper, credit card delinquency means the possibility of occurring bad debt within the certain near future from the normal accounts that have no debt and the problem is to predict, on the monthly basis, the occurrence of delinquency 3 months in advance. This prediction is typical binary classification problem but suffers from the issue of data imbalance that means the instances of target class is very few. For the effective prediction of bad debt occurrence, Support Vector Machine (SVM) with kernel trick is adopted using credit card usage and payment patterns as its inputs. SVM is widely accepted in the data mining society because of its prediction accuracy and no fear of overfitting. However, it is known that SVM has the limitation in its ability to processing the large-scale data. To resolve the difficulties in applying SVM to bad debt occurrence prediction, two stage clustering is suggested as an effective data reduction method and ensembles of SVM models are also adopted to mitigate the difficulty due to data imbalance intrinsic to the target problem of this paper. In the experiments with the real world data from one of the major domestic credit card companies, the suggested approach reveals the superior prediction accuracy to the traditional data mining approaches that use neural networks, decision trees or logistics regressions. SVM ensemble model learned from T2 training set shows the best prediction results among the alternatives considered and it is noteworthy that the performance of neural networks with T2 is better than that of SVM with T1. These results prove that the suggested approach is very effective for both SVM training and the classification problem of data imbalance.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.175-188
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• 2004

The objectives of this study were to estimate leaf area index (LAI) as a function of image-derived vegetation indices, and to compare measured and estimated LAI to the results of crop model simulation. Soil moisture, crop phenology, and LAI data were obtained several times during the 2001 growing season at monitoring sites established in two central Missouri experimental fields, one planted to com (Zea mays L.) and the other planted to soybean (Glycine max L.). Hyper- and multi-spectral images at varying spatial. and spectral resolutions were acquired from both airborne and satellite platforms, and data were extracted to calculate standard vegetative indices (normalized difference vegetative index, NDVI; ratio vegetative index, RVI; and soil-adjusted vegetative index, SAVI). When comparing these three indices, regressions for measured LAI were of similar quality $(r^2$ =0.59 to 0.61 for com; $r^2$ =0.66 to 0.68 for soybean) in this single-year dataset. CERES(Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-Maize and CROPGRO-Soybean models were calibrated to measured soil moisture and yield data and used to simulate LAI over the growing season. The CERES-Maize model over-predicted LAI at all corn monitoring sites. Simulated LAI from CROPGRO-Soybean was similar to observed and image-estimated LA! for most soybean monitoring sites. These results suggest crop growth model predictions might be improved by incorporating image-estimated LAI. Greater improvements might be expected with com than with soybean.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.85-100
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to (1) identify socio-demographic, economic, village-effect variables that influence the late payment of the National Health Insurance contribution, (2) to develop the model to predict the probability of a household to make late payment of the contribution. Data is composed of information on 78,858 households, Gangnam branch, National Health Insurance Corporation, as of September 30, 2001. We analyzed the data by using multivariate logistic regressions. The major findings are as follows; (1) an older or female householder whose family consists of smaller number of members is more likely to pay the contribution late than others, (2) as for income, one who belongs to a lower income group or nm a private business tend to pay it late, (3) more attention should be paid to a householders who does not have his/her own house or automobile so as to prevent late payment, (4) lastly, those who live in villages such as Nonhyun-l-dong are less likely to pay the contribution prior to due date.