• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.241-253
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• 2015

In this paper we predict the track of typhoons using a Bayesian principal component regression model based on wind field data. Data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Based on regression model, we applied to variable selection prior and two kinds of prior distribution; normal and Laplace distribution. We show prediction results based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and Median Probability Model (MPM) estimator. We analysis 8 typhoons in 2006 using data obtained from previous 6 years (2000-2005). We compare our prediction results with a moving-nest typhoon model (MTM) proposed by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We posit that is possible to predict the track of a typhoon accurately using only a statistical model and without a dynamical model.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.97-105
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• 2001

The ultrasonic pulse velocity test has a strong potential to be developed into a very useful and relatively inexpensive in-place test for assuring the quality of concrete placed in structure. The main problem in realizing this potential is that the relationship between compressive strength ad ultrasonic pulse velocity is uncertain and concrete is an inherently variable material. The objective of this study is to improve the reliability of in-place concrete strength predictions by ultrasonic pulse velocity method. Experimental cement content, s/a rate, and curing condition of concrete. Accuracy of the prediction expressed in empirical formula are examined by multiple regression analysis and linear regression analysis and practical equation for estimation the concrete strength are proposed. Multiple regression model uses water-cement ratio cement content s/a rate, and pulse velocity as dependent variables and the compressive strength as an independent variable. Also linear regression model is used to only pulse velocity as dependent variables. Comparing the results of the analysis the proposed equation expressed highest reliability than other previous proposed equations.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제56권5호
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• pp.447-456
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• 2019

In the early stage of ship design, the rapid prediction of resistance of hull forms is required. Although there are more accurate prediction methods such as model test and CFD analysis, statistical methods are still widely used because of their cost-effectiveness and quickness in producing the results. This study suggests the prediction formula for the residual resistance coefficient (Cr) of the low-speed full ships. The formula was derived from the statistical analysis of model test results in KRISO database. In order to improve prediction accuracy, the local variables of hull forms are defined and used for the regression process. The regression formula for these variables using only principal dimensions of hull forms are also provided.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제55권3호
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• pp.273-283
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• 2019

The authors has predicted the maneuvering characteristics of a fishing vessel in deep water using Kijima's empirical formula in a previous study. Since the Kijima's empirical formula was developed by a regression analysis of merchant vessels which have dimensions ($C_b$, L/B, etc.) that are different from those of fishing vessels, it was possible to make a prediction approximately even with inaccurate estimation. In this study, the authors estimated the turning-motion characteristics of a model ship of fisheries training ship in shallow water based on the results of its previous study. The turning-motion characteristics of the model ship in shallow water was found out through quantitative analysis according to the water depth to ship draft ratio (H/d). In conclusion, the turning-motion characteristics of the model ship had significant changes immediately after an H/d 1.5, and this result will be helpful for sailing in shallow water.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권9호
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• pp.743-752
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• 2014

함양 지체시간은 강우로부터 지표면을 지나 지하수면으로 도달하는 침투수의 통로 역할을 하는 비포화대를 통과할 때 발생하는 시간지연을 의미한다. 함양 지체시간을 직접적으로 측정하는 것은 불가능하기 때문에 본 연구는 고도와의 단순회귀분석을 이용하여 지체시간에 대한 경험식을 유도하였다. 이를 위하여 제주도 내에 4개의 유역(한천, 강정천, 외도천, 천미천)을 선정하여 총 18개의 관측지점에 대한 지체시간을 산정하였다. 또한 제안된 회귀식을 검증하기 위하여 선형 저수지 이론으로부터 유도된 방정식을 적용하여 구한 지체시간과 본 연구에서 유도된 경험식으로부터 산정된 지체시간을 이용하여 각각 산정한 지하수 함양량을 비교한 결과 상관성이 높은 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 유도한 경험식을 이용하여 SWAT모형의 지체시간 매개변수에 적용할 경우 지하수 함양의 공간적 지연효과를 잘 반영할 것으로 판단된다.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.87-112
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• 2018

In this study, it is aimed to present engineering software to estimate the structural response of concrete arch dam. Type-1 concrete arch dam constructed in the laboratory is selected as a reference model. Finite element analyses and experimental measurements are conducted to show the accuracy of initial model. Dynamic analyses are carried out by spectrum analysis under empty reservoir case considering soil-structure interaction and fixed foundation condition. The displacements, principal stresses and strains are presented as an analysis results at all nodal points on downstream and upstream faces of dam body. It is seen from the analyses that there is not any specific ratio between prototype and scaled models for each nodal point with different scale values. So, dynamic analyses results cannot be generalized with a single formula. To eliminate this complexity, the regression analysis, which is a statistical method to obtain the real model results according to the prototype model by using fitting curves, is used. The regression analysis results are validated by numerical solutions using ANSYS software and the error percentages are examined. It is seen that 10% error rates are not exceeded.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.85-103
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• 2015

Aerodynamic forces of vortex-induced vibration and galloping are going to be coupled when their onset velocities are close to each other, which will induce the cross-wind amplitudes of the structures increased continuously with ever-increasing wind velocities. The main purpose of the present work is going to propose an empirical formula to predict the response amplitude of VIV-galloping interaction. Firstly, two typical mathematical models for the coupled oscillations, i.e., Tamura & Shimada model and Parkinson & Corless model are comparatively summarized. Then, the key parameter affecting response amplitude is determined through comparative numerical simulations with Tamura & Shimada model. For rectangular cylinders with the side ratio from 0.5 to 2.5, which are actually prone to develop the VIV and galloping induced interaction responses, an empirical amplitude prediction formula is proposed after regression analysis on comprehensively collected experimental data with the predetermined key parameter.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.729-736
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• 2015

본 논문에서는 Goal-Driven Optimization(GDO)을 바탕으로 한 양방향 차도선의 차량갑판의 구조설계에 대하여 최적화를 수행하였다. 차량갑판의 강도와 변형에 대한 영향을 검토하여 경제적 비용을 절약할 수 있는 최적점을 결정하였다. 실험계획법(DOE)과 반응표면법을 바탕으로 한 갑판두께를 110% 증가시켜 차량갑판의 강도와 강성을 높일 수 있었다. 이 결과에 대한 회귀분석을 수행하여 3차 다항식 모형인 최적 회귀모형식으로 제안하며 결정계수 $R^2$ 0.98정도로 나타내어 신뢰성을 확보할 수 있었다.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.83-90
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• 2010

본 연구는 강원도 지방하천을 중심으로 수리특성 및 교각제원 등을 조사하여 기존 세굴심 산정식의 산정 값과 모형실험 산정 값을 비교 검토 하였으며, 교각의 세굴에 영향을 주는 인자에 대하여 통계학적 방법인 민감도 분석을 하였다. 분석결과, 기존 세굴심 산정식의 경우 전반 적으로 모형실험 측정 값 간의 편차가 1.09%~63.98%를 보이고 있어 강원도 하천의 경우, 기존 세굴심 산정식을 적용하여 산정하기에는 적합하지 않은 것으로 판단되었다. 그리고 모형실험에 의해 산정된 측정값을 토대로 민감도 분석을 수행하였으며, 교각크기 64%, 수심 36% 순으로 세굴심 발생에 유의적인 영향을 미치는 것을 확인하였다. 끝으로 모형실험의 세굴심 산정 값을 토대로 회귀분석을 통하여 강원도 하천에 적합한 원형교각의 세굴심 산정식을 작성하였다.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.543-551
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• 2015

본 논문에서는 교량, 선박 등에 사용하고 해양환경을 고려한 알루미늄 합금(A6082-T-6) 플레이트 거더의 물리적 관계를 살펴보고자 한다. 플레이트 거더는 제품수명주기에 이동하중, 적재하중 등 같은 패치로딩을 경험하게 된다. 이 하중을 받는 알루미늄합금 플레이트 거더의 최종강도에 대해 다수 수치모형을 적용하여 탄소성 대변형 시리즈 해석을 수행하고 회귀분석을 통해 예측식을 제안하였다. 예측식은 최종강도와 세장변수의 상관관계로 나타냈으며 세장변수가 낮을 경우(0-2.3) 약 9 % 정도 오차가 발생하며 높을 경우(2.3-4.0) 약 1-2 % 정도 오차가 발생하였다. 따라서 제안 예측식 적정성은 합리적으로 평가할 수 있는 것으로 확인되었다.