• 한국전산유체공학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.55-63
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• 2000

In this paper, the numerical study has been done for the improvement of the superdetonative ram accelerator performance and for the design optimization of the system. The objective function to optimize the premixture composition is the ram tube length, required to accelerate projectile from initial velocity V/sub 0/ to target velocity V/sub e/. The premixture is composed of H₂, O₂, N₂ and the mole numbers of these species are selected as design variables. RSM(Response Surface Methodology) which is widely used for the complex optimization problems is selected as the optimization technique. In particular, to improve the non-linearity of the response and to consider the accuracy and the efficiency of the solution, design space stretching technique has been applied. Separate sub-optimization routine is introduced to determine the stretching position and clustering parameters which construct the optimum regression model. Two step optimization technique has been applied to obtain the optimal system. With the application of stretching technique, we can perform system optimization with a small number of experimental points, and construct precise regression model for highly non-linear domain. The error compared with analysis result is only 0.01% and it is demonstrated that present method can be applied to more practical design optimization problems with many design variables.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권7호
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• pp.1154-1159
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• 2018

Precise prediction of the radiation interaction position in scintillators plays an important role in medical and industrial imaging systems. In this research, the incident position of the gamma rays was predicted precisely in a plastic rod scintillator by using attenuation technique and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, for the first time. Also, this procedure was performed using nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The experimental setup is comprised of a plastic rod scintillator (BC400) coupled with two PMTs at two sides, a $^{60}Co$ gamma source and two counters that record count rates. Using two proposed techniques (ANN and NLR), the radiation interaction position was predicted in a plastic rod scintillator with a mean relative error percentage less than 4.6% and 14.6%, respectively. The mean absolute error was measured less than 2.5 and 5.5. The correlation coefficient was calculated 0.998 and 0.984, respectively. Also, the ANN technique was confirmed by leave-one-out (LOO) method with 1% error. These results presented the superiority of the ANN method in comparison with NLR and the other methods. The technique and set up used are simpler and faster than other the previous position sensitive detectors. Thus, the time, cost and shielding and electronics requirements are minimized and optimized.

• Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.337-348
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• 2016

An experimental approach is presented for the measurement of wear that is common in the threading of cold-forged steel. In this work, the first objective is to measure wear on various types of roll taps manufactured to tapping holes in microalloyed HR45 steel. Different geometries and levels of wear are tested and measured. Taking their geometry as the critical factor, the types of forming tap with the least wear and the best performance are identified. Abrasive wear was observed on the forming lobes. A higher number of lobes in the chamber zone and around the nominal diameter meant a more uniform load distribution and a more gradual forming process. A second objective is to identify the most accurate data-mining technique for the prediction of form-tap wear. Different data-mining techniques are tested to select the most accurate one: from standard versions such as Multilayer Perceptrons, Support Vector Machines and Regression Trees to the most recent ones such as Rotation Forest ensembles and Iterated Bagging ensembles. The best results were obtained with ensembles of Rotation Forest with unpruned Regression Trees as base regressors that reduced the RMS error of the best-tested baseline technique for the lower length output by 33%, and Additive Regression with unpruned M5P as base regressors that reduced the RMS errors of the linear fit for the upper and total lengths by 25% and 39%, respectively. However, the lower length was statistically more difficult to model in Additive Regression than in Rotation Forest. Rotation Forest with unpruned Regression Trees as base regressors therefore appeared to be the most suitable regressor for the modeling of this industrial problem.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.957-968
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• 2021

역중도절단확률가중(inverse censoring probability weighting, ICPW)은 생존분석에서 흔히 사용되는 방법이다. 중도절단 회귀모형과 같은 ICPW 방법의 응용에 있어서 중도절단 확률의 정확한 추정은 핵심적인 요소라고 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 중도절단 확률의 추정이 ICPW 기반 중도절단 회귀모형의 성능에 어떠한 영향을 주는지 모의실험을 통하여 알아보았다. 모의실험에서는 Kaplan-Meier 추정량, Cox 비례위험(proportional hazard) 모형 추정량, 그리고 국소 Kaplan-Meier 추정량 세 가지를 비교하였다. 국소 KM 추정량에 대해서는 차원의 저주를 피하기 위해 공변량의 차원축소 방법을 추가적으로 적용하였다. 차원축소 방법으로는 흔히 사용되는 주성분분석(principal component analysis, PCA)과 절단역회귀(sliced inverse regression)방법을 고려하였다. 그 결과 Cox 비례위험 추정량이 평균 및 중위수 중도절단 회귀모형 모두에서 중도절단 확률을 추정하는 데 가장 좋은 성능을 보여주었다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.217-227
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• 2022

분위수 회귀 모형은 변수에 숨겨진 복잡한 정보를 살펴보기 위한 효율적인 도구를 제공하는 장점을 바탕으로 많은 분야에서 널리 사용되고 있다. 그러나 현대의 대용량-고차원 데이터는 계산 시간 및 저장공간의 제한으로 인해 분위수 회귀 모형의 추정을 매우 어렵게 만든다. 분할-정복은 전체 데이터를 계산이 용이한 여러개의 부분집합으로 나눈 다음 각 분할에서의 요약 통계량만을 이용하여 전체 데이터의 추정량을 재구성하는 기법이다. 본 연구에서는 분할-정복 기법을 벌점화 분위수 회귀에 적용하고 베이즈 정보기준을 활용하여 변수를 선택하는 방법에 관하여 연구하였다. 제안 방법은 분할 수를 적절하게 선택하였을 때, 전체 데이터로 계산한 일반적인 분위수 회귀 추정량만큼 변수 선택의 측면에서 일관된 결과를 제공하면서 계산 속도의 측면에서 효율적이다. 이러한 제안된 방법의 장점은 시뮬레이션 데이터 및 실제 데이터 분석을 통해 확인하였다.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.9-14
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• 2022

The demand for public bicycles operated by the Seoul Metropolitan Government is increasing every year. The size of the Seoul public bicycle project, which first started with about 5,600 units, increased to 3,7500 units as of September 2021, and the number of members is also increasing every year. However, as the size of the project grows, excessive budget spending and deficit problems are emerging for public bicycle projects, and new bicycles, rental office costs, and bicycle maintenance costs are blamed for the deficit. In this paper, the Azure Machine Learning Studio program and the Boosted Decision Tree Regression technique are used to predict the number of public bicycle rental over environmental factors and time. Predicted results it was confirmed that the demand for public bicycles was high in the season except for winter, and the demand for public bicycles was the highest at 6 p.m. In addition, in this paper compare four additional regression algorithms in addition to the Boosted Decision Tree Regression algorithm to measure algorithm performance. The results showed high accuracy in the order of the First Boosted Decision Tree Regression Algorithm (0.878802), second Decision Forest Regression (0.838232), third Poison Regression (0.62699), and fourth Linear Regression (0.618773). Based on these predictions, it is expected that more public bicycles will be placed at rental stations near public transportation to meet the growing demand for commuting hours and that more bicycles will be placed in rental stations in summer than winter and the life of bicycles can be extended in winter.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:데이타베이스
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.483-492
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• 2007

최근 센서 네트워크의 발달로 실세계의 많은 데이타가 시간 속성을 갖고 실시간으로 수집되고 있다. 기존의 시계열 데이타 예측 기법은 모델 갱신 없이 예측을 수행하였다. 그러나 스트림 데이타는 매우 빠르게 수집이 되고 시간이 지남에 따라 데이타의 특성이 변경될 수 있으므로 기존의 시계열 예측 기법을 적용하는 것은 적절하지 않다. 따라서 이 논문에서는 슬라이딩 윈도우와 점진적인 회귀분석을 이용한 스트림 데이타 예측 기법을 제안한다. 이 기법은 스트림 데이타를 다중 회귀 모델에 입력하기 위해 차원 분열을 통해 여러 개의 속성으로 분열(Fractal)하고, 변화되는 데이타의 분포를 반영하기 위해 슬라이딩 윈도우 기법을 사용하여 점진적으로 회귀 모델을 갱신한다. 또한 고정 크기 큐를 이용하여 최근의 데이타로만 모델을 유지한다. 이전 데이타의 유지 없이 최소 정보를 갖는 행렬을 통해 모델을 갱신하므로 낮은 공간 복잡도를 갖고 점진적으로 모델을 갱신함으로써 에러율의 증가를 방지한다. 제안된 기법의 타당성은 RME(Relative Mean Error)와 RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)를 이용하여 측정하였고, 실험 결과 다른 기법에 비해 우수하였다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.75-79
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• 1978

The use of three mathematical programming techniques (quadratic programming, integer quadratic programming and linear programming) is discussed to solve some problems in linear regression analysis. When the criterion is the minimization of the sum of squared deviations and the parameters are linearly constrained, the problem may be formulated as quadratic programming problem. For the selection of variables to find "best" regression equation in statistics, the technique of integer quadratic programming is proposed and found to be a very useful tool. When the criterion of fitting a linear regression is the minimization of the sum of absolute deviations from the regression function, the problem may be reduced to a linear programming problem and can be solved reasonably well.ably well.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2003년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.137-141
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• 2003

LS-SVM(least squares support vector machine) is a widely applicable and useful machine learning technique for classification and regression analysis. LS-SVM can be a good substitute for statistical method but computational difficulties are still remained to operate the inversion of matrix of huge data set. In modern information society, we can easily get huge data sets by on line or batch mode. For these kind of huge data sets, we suggest an on line pruning regression method by LS-SVM. With relatively small number of pruned support vectors, we can have almost same performance as regression with full data set.

• 한국품질경영학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국품질경영학회 2010년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.402-408
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• 2010

Forecasting have qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative one analyze macro-economic factors such as the rate of exchange, oil price, interest rate and also predict the micro-economic factors such as sales and demands. Applying various statistical methods depends on the type of data. when data has seasonality and trend, Time Series analysis is proper but when it has casual relation, Regression analysis is good for this. Time Series and Regression can be used together. This study investigate artificial neural networks which is predictive technique for casual relation and try to compare the accuracy of forecasting between regression analysis and artificial neural network.