• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regression Model

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The Analysis on the Relationship between Firms' Exposures to SNS and Stock Prices in Korea (기업의 SNS 노출과 주식 수익률간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Taehwan;Jung, Woo-Jin;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.233-253
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    • 2014
  • Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

Study on the Optimum Range of Weight-Age Data for Estimation of Growth Curve Parameters of Hanwoo (한우의 체중 성장곡선 모수 추정을 위한 체중 측정 자료의 최적 범위에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Y.M.;Yoon, H.B.;Park, B.H.;Ahn, B.S.;Jeon, B.S.;Park, Y.I.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.165-170
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    • 2002
  • Mature weight (A) and rate of maturing (k) estimated by nonlinear regression were studied to determine the optimum age range over which the estimate of growth curve parameters can be estimated. The weight-age data from 1,133 Hanwoo bulls at Hanwoo Improvement Center of N.A.C.F. were used to fit the growth curve using Gompertz model. All available weight data from birth to the specific age of months were used for the estimation of parameters: the six specific ages used were 12, 14, 16, 18, 20 22 and 24 months of age. The mean estimates of mature weight (A) were 966.5, 1,255.9, 1,126.2, 916.5, 842.2, 780.9 and 767.0kg for ages 12 through 24 months, respectively. The mean estimates of mature weight (A) to 22 and 24 months of age were not different from each other. However, they were different from the estimates based on the data to other ages. Mean estimates of rate of maturing (k) were 3.362, 3.595, 3.536, 3.421, 3.403, 3.409 and 3.411 for ages 12 through 24 months, respectively. The mean estimates of maturing rate (k) for ages 18 through 24 months of age were not significantly different from each other. However, they were different from the estimates based on the data to other ages. Correlations among estimates of A at various ages showed the highest value of 0.93 between 22 and 24 months. Correlations among estimates of k at various ages were highest ranging from 0.91 to 0.99 among 18 to 24 months. The correlations between A and k were positive and tended to decrease with the increase of the age from 0.84 for the age of 12 months to 0.10 for the age of 24 months. Thus, the estimates of growth curve parameters, A and k, suitable for genetic studies can be derived from accumulated Hanwoo bulls after 22 months of age.

Development of Traffic Volume Estimation System in Main and Branch Roads to Estimate Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Road Transportation Category (도로수송부문 온실가스 배출량 산정을 위한 간선 및 지선도로상의 교통량 추정시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Dong;Lee, Tae-Jung;Jung, Won-Seok;Kim, Dong-Sool
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.233-248
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    • 2012
  • The national emission from energy sector accounted for 84.7% of all domestic emissions in 2007. Of the energy-use emissions, the emission from mobile source as one of key categories accounted for 19.4% and further the road transport emission occupied the most dominant portion in the category. The road transport emissions can be estimated on the basis of either the fuel consumed (Tier 1) or the distance travelled by the vehicle types and road types (higher Tiers). The latter approach must be suitable for simultaneously estimating $CO_2$, $CH_4$, and $N_2O$ emissions in local administrative districts. The objective of this study was to estimate 31 municipal GHG emissions from road transportation in Gyeonggi Province, Korea. In 2008, the municipalities were consisted of 2,014 towns expressed as Dong and Ri, the smallest administrative district unit. Since mobile sources are moving across other city and province borders, the emission estimated by fuel sold is in fact impossible to ensure consistency between neighbouring cities and provinces. On the other hand, the emission estimated by distance travelled is also impossible to acquire key activity data such as traffic volume, vehicle type and model, and road type in small towns. To solve the problem, we applied a hierarchical cluster analysis to separate town-by-town road patterns (clusters) based on a priori activity information including traffic volume, population, area, and branch road length obtained from small 151 towns. After identifying 10 road patterns, a rule building expert system was developed by visual basic application (VBA) to assort various unknown road patterns into one of 10 known patterns. The expert system was self-verified with original reference information and then objects in each homogeneous pattern were used to regress traffic volume based on the variables of population, area, and branch road length. The program was then applied to assign all the unknown towns into a known pattern and to automatically estimate traffic volumes by regression equations for each town. Further VKT (vehicle kilometer travelled) for each vehicle type in each town was calculated to be mapped by GIS (geological information system) and road transport emission on the corresponding road section was estimated by multiplying emission factors for each vehicle type. Finally all emissions from local branch roads in Gyeonggi Province could be estimated by summing up emissions from 1,902 towns where road information was registered. As a result of the study, the GHG average emission rate by the branch road transport was 6,101 kilotons of $CO_2$ equivalent per year (kt-$CO_2$ Eq/yr) and the total emissions from both main and branch roads was 24,152 kt-$CO_2$ Eq/yr in Gyeonggi Province. The ratio of branch roads emission to the total was 0.28 in 2008.

A Cohort Study on Risk Factors for Chronic Liver Disease: Analytic Strategies Excluding Potentially Incident Subjects (만성간질환 위험요인에 대한 코호트연구: 잠재적 발병자 집단을 감안한 분석전략)

  • Kim, Dae-Sung;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Bae, Jong-Myun;Shin, Myung-Hee;Ahn, Yoon-Ok;Lee, Moo-Song
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.452-458
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: The authors conducted the study to evaluate bias when potentially diseased subjects were included in cohort members while analyzing risk factors of chronic liver diseases. Methods: Total of 14,529 subjects were followed up for the incidence of liver diseases from January 1993 to June 1997. We have used databases of insurance company with medical records, cancer registry, and death certificate data to identify 102 incident cases. The cohort members were classified into potentially diseased group(n=2,217) when they were HBsAg positive, serum GPT levels higher than 40 units, or had or has liver diseases in baseline surveys. Cox's model were used for potentially diseased group, other members, and total subjects, respectively. Results: The risk factors profiles were similar for total and potentially diseased subjects: HBsAg positivity, history of acute liver disease, and recent quittance of smoking or drinking increased the risk. while intake of pork and coffee decreased it. For the potentially diseased, obesity showed marginally significant protective effect. Analysis of subjects excluding the potentially diseased showed distinct profiles: obesity increased the risk, while quitting smoking or drinking had no association. For these intake of raw liver or processed fish or soybean paste stew increased risk; HBsAg positivity, higher levels of liver enzymes and history of acute liver diseases increased the risk. Conclusions: The results suggested the potential bias in risk ratio estimates when potentially diseased subjects were included in cohort study on chronic liver diseases, especially for lifestyles possibly modified after disease onset. The analytic strategy excluding potentially diseased subjects was considered appropriate for identifying risk factors for chronic liver diseases.

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A Study of the Core Factors Affecting the Performance of Technology Management of Inno-Biz SMEs (기술혁신형(Inno-Biz) 중소기업의 기술경영성과에 미치는 핵심요인에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Heon-Deok;Seo, Ri-Bin
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.111-144
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    • 2011
  • This study is to confirm the core factors of innovative capabilities and technological entrepreneurship affecting the performance of technology management and business management of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Through the consideration about the complex natures of technological innovation affecting by multidimensional factors, this study designs the research model that innovative capabilities, the performances of technology and business management are arranged in accordance with the innovation process; input-output-outcome. To meet this research purpose, the hypothesis are set up based on the previous research studies and the research samples are selected from members of the Innovative Business (INNO-BIZ) Association, located in Seoul and Geyonggi province. As a result of regression analysis to the responses gathered from 360 firms, the performance of business management is influenced positively by the technology superiority, market growth and business profitability which are the dominant factors of performance of technology management. In addition, three sub-variables of innovative capabilities such as R&D, strategic planning and learning capability, have positive effects on both the managerial performances. Innovativeness and progressiveness of technological entrepreneurship affect both the performances positively. Moreover, the co-relation between technological entrepreneurship of an innovation leader and innovative capabilities of organizational members are identified. Lastly, technological entrepreneurship has the mediating effect on the path of leading innovative capabilities to the managerial performances. In conclusion, the research results imply that technological innovation-type firms should periodically evaluate the performance of technology management which are the output of technological innovations and the reinvestment for ultimate business success. And improving and developing innovative capabilities and technological entrepreneurship is required to continuously and consistently investing and supporting resources on technological innovations at the firm-and government-level. It is considered that these are the crucial methods for securing the technologically competitive advantage of SMEs with less resources and narrow innovation range.

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Prognostic Factors Influencing the Result of Postoperative Radiotherapy in Endometrial Carcinoma (자궁내막암의 수술 후 방사선치료 결과에 영향을 미치는 예후인자)

  • Ki Yong-Kan;Kwon Byung-Hyun;Kim Won-Taek;Nam Ji-Ho;Yun Man-Su;Lee Hyung-Sik;Kim Dong-Won
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.110-115
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: This study was performed to determine the prognostic factors influencing relapse pattern, overall and disease-free survival in patients treated with postoperative radiotherapy for endometrial carcinoma. Materials and Methods: The records of 54 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma treated postoperative radiotherapy at Pusan National University Hospital between April 1992 and May 2003 were reviewed retrospectively. Median age of the patients was 55 (range $35{\sim}76$). The distribution by surgical FIGO stages were 63.0% for 0Stage I, 14.8% for Stage II, 22.2% for Stage III. All patients received postoperative external radiotherapy up to $41.4{\sim}54Gy$ (median: 50.4 Gy). Additional Intravaginal brachytherapy was app led to 20 patients (37.0% of all). Median follow-up time was 35 months ($5{\sim}115$ months). Significant factors of this study: histologic grade, Iymphovascular space invasion and myometrial invasion depth were scored (GLM score) and analyzed. Survival analysis was peformed using Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used for univariate analysis and the Cox regression model for multivariate analysis. Results: 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 87.7% and 871%, respectively. Prognostic factors related with overall and disease-free survival were histologic grade, Iymphovascular space invasion and myometrial invasion according to the univariate analysis. According to the multivariate analysis, Iymphovascular space invasion was associated with decreased disease-free survival. GLM score was a meaningful factor affecting overall and disease-free survival (p=0.0090, p=0.0073, respectively) and distant recurrence (p=0.0132), which was the sum of points of histologic grade, Iymphovascular space Invasion and myometrial invasion. Total failure rate was 11% with 6 patients. Relapse sites were 2 para-aortic Iymph nodes, 2 lungs, a supraclavicular Iymph node and a vagina. Conclusion: The prognosos in patients with endometrial carcinoma treated by postoperative radiotherapy was closely related with surgical histopathology. If further explorations confirm the system of prognostic factors in endometrial carcinoma, it will help us to predict the progression pattern and to manage.

Risk Factors Related to Uterine Leiomyoma in Korean Women - A Retrospective Study - (한국인 여성에서 자궁근종 발생에 관여하는 인자들에 대한 연구 - 후향적 연구 -)

  • Hong, D.G.;Chung, M.J.;Kim, B.S.;Lee, J.M.;Cho, Y.L.;Lee, T.H.;Chun, S.S.
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.159-170
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    • 2006
  • Objective: The purpose of this study is to find out risk factors related to uterine leiomyoma in Korean women and to compare with the results of previous western studies. Methods: A retrospective analysis was carried out. All the cases of uterine leiomyoma (n=244) were diagnosed surgically or sonographically between Jannuary 1998 and December 2004. Total of 269 controls not having uterine leiomyoma were collected from patients who visited Kyungpook national university hospital for routine gynecologic check-up or treatment of their gynecologic or obstetric diseases other than uterine leiomyoma. Data were collected through review of medical records and interviews and analyzed with $x^2$ and logistic regression model. Results: In multivariate analysis, patient's age (OR 1.070; 95% CI 1.041~1.099), number of artificial abortion (OR 1.182; 95% CI 1.018~1.374) and alcohol drinking (OR 1.865; 95% CI 1.231~2.824) had significantly positive correlation with uterine leiomyoma. The duration of lactation was the only factor which had negative correlation (OR 0.985; 95% CI 0.972~0.998). BMI, parity, age at menarche, the duration and interval of menstruation, caffeine consumption and marital status did not show any correlations. Conclusion: In this study, patient's age, number of artificial abortion, and alcohol drinking were the risk factors of uterine leiomyoma in Korean women and the result was similar to that of western studies. Though we couldn't find out the specific risk factors related to the development of uterine leiomyoma in this study, but it has a great meaning to be the first trial in Korean women. The role of information bias should be carefully evaluated and further multicentered, randomized, controlled prospective studies will be needed to know the possible risk factors among Korean women.

A Study of Dopamine Transporter Imaging and Comparison of Noninvasive Simplified Quantitative Methods in Normal Controls and Parkinson's Patients ([I-123]IPT SPECT를 이용한 정상인과 파킨슨 환자의 도파민 운반체의 영상화 및 단순화된 정량분석 방법들의 비교연구)

  • Bong, Jung-Kyun;Kim, Hee-Joung;Im, Joo-Hyuck;Yang, Seoung-Oh;Moon, Dae-Hyuk;Ryu, Jin-Sook;Nam, Ki-Pyo;Cheon, Jun-Hong;Kwon, Soo-Il;Lee, Hee-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.315-324
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the specific binding ratio method with model-based methods in estimating the transporter parameter $k_3/k_4$ in normal controls and Parkinson's patients with [I-123]IPT SPECT and to evaluate the usefulness of [I-123]IPT SPECT. $6.5{\pm}1.1$ mCi ($239.0{\pm}40.3$ MBq) of [$^{123}I$]IPT was intravenouly injected as a bolus into six normal controls(age:$45{\pm}13$) and seventeen patients(age:$55{\pm}8$) with Pakinson's disease(PD). The transporter parameter $k_3/k_4$ was derived using the Ichise's graphical method($R_v$) and Lassen's area ratio method($R_A$) for the dynamic IPT SPECT data without blood samples. Then, the relationships between the transporter parameter $R-v,\;R_A$ and the ratio of (BG-OCC)/OCC at 115 minutes were evaluated by linear regression analysis. $R_vs$ by Ichise's graphical method for NC and PD were $2.08{\pm}0.29$ and $0.78{\pm}0.31$, respectively. $R_As$ by Lassen's area ratio method for NC and PD were $1.48{\pm}0.16$ and $0.65{\pm}0.24$, respectively. The correlation coefficients between (BG-OCC)/OCC and $R_v$, (BG-OCC)/OCC and $R_A$, and $R_v$ and $R_A$ were 0.93, 0.90, 0.99 and their corresponding slopes were 0.54, 0.34, and 0.65, respectively. The $R_v$ and $R_A$ of NC were significantly higher than the ones of PD. That is, the $k_3/k_4$ of NC was clearly separated from the one of PD. $k_3/k_4$ showed a good correlation with the ratio of (BG-OCC)/OCC. The results indicate that the noninvasive simplified quantitative methods may be useful to measure the transporter parameter $k_3/k_4$ and the specific binding ratio method can be used for quantitative studies of dopamine transporter with [I-123]IPT SPECT in humans brains.

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The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009 (한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009)

  • Park, Sang Seo;Kim, Jhoon;Cho, Nayeong;Lee, Yun Gon;Cho, Hi Ku
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).

A Study on the DWI and Pathologic Findings of Cancer Cells (암 세포주의 확산강조영상과 병리학적 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Seong, Jae-Gu;Lim, Cheong-Hwan
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.239-244
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we evaluated diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) to investigate whether the DWI parameters can predict characteristic parameters on pathologic specimens of tumor or not. CFPAC-1 was injected subcutaneously on the back flank of athymic nude mice (n=13) then two tumors were initiated on each mouse (2${\times}$13=26 tumors). The mice were sacrificed to make specimen immediately after initial MR imaging then were compared with the MR image. A dedicated high-field (7T) small-animal MR scanner was used for image acquisitions. A T1 and T2 weighted axial image using RARE technique was acquired to measure the T2 values and tumor size. DWI MR was performed for calculating ADC values. To evaluate tumor cellularity and determine the levels of MVD, tumor cells were excised and processed for H-E staining and immunostaining using CD31. T2 values and ADC values were computed and analyzed for each half of the tumors and compared to the correlated specimens slide. Median ADC within each half of mass was compared to the cellularity and MVD in the correlated area of pathologic slide. The mean of ADC value is $0.7327{\times}10^{-3}$ $mm^2/s$ and standard deviation is $0.1075{\times}10^{-3}$ $mm^2/s$. There is a linear relationship between ADC value and tumor necrosis (R2=0.697, p< 0.001). DW image parameters including the ADC values can be utilized as surrogate markers to assess intratumoral neoangiogenesis and change of the internal structure of tumor cells.