• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.64-69
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• 2013

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the present supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea. Result of this research may improve consistency and reliability of simulation weather data or climate change in order to take advantage of SRES and PRECIS QUMP. It is expected that these calculated test reference years will be useful to the designers of solar energy systems, as well as those who need daily solar radiation data for South Korea. Also, those results may contribute zero carbon and design of sustainable architecture establishing future typical weather data that should be gone ahead to energy efficient building design using renewable energy systems.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.212-219
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• 2014

In this study, a land pollutant load calculation method in TMDLs was improved to consider climate change scenarios. In order to evaluate the new method, future change in rainfall patterns was predicted by using SRES A1B climate change scenarios and then post-processing methods such as change factor (CF) and quantile mapping (QM) were applied to correct the bias between the predicted and the observed rainfall patterns. Also, future land pollutant loads were estimated by using both the bias corrected rainfall patterns and the enhanced method. For the results of bias correction, both methods (CF and QM) predicted the temporal trend of the past rainfall patterns and QM method showed future daily average precipitation in the range of 1.1~7.5 mm and CF showed it in the range of 1.3~6.8 mm from 2014 to 2100. Also, in the result of the estimation of future land pollutant loads using the enhanced method (2020, 2040, 2100), TN loads were in the range of 4316.6~6138.6 kg/day and TP loads were in the range of 457.0~716.5 kg/day. However, each result of TN and TP loads in 2020, 2040, 2100 was the same with the original method. The enhanced method in this study will be useful to predict land pollutant loads under the influence of climate change because it can reflect future change in rainfall patterns. Also, it is expected that the results of this study are used as a base data of TMDLs in case of applying for climate change scenarios.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.165-181
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• 2019

In this study, the regional climate model, RegCM4.0 (25 km), with the HadGEM2-AO data as boundary conditions, was used to simulate the mean climate changes in the mid and late 21st century for CORDEX Phase 2 East Asian region. 122 years (1979~2100) of simulation were performed, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for the simulation of future climate. In the mid-21st century, the temperature is expected to increase by about 0.5 to $3.0^{\circ}C$ in all regions of East Asia, regardless of season and scenario. The increase in temperature is greater in summer and winter, especially in the northern part of simulation domain. Interannual variability (IAV) is expected to decrease by 25% in summer for RCP 8.5, while it is expected to increase by more than 30% in autumn for both scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, the precipitation in South Korea is expected to increase in late June but decrease in mid-July, with an increase in precipitation greater than $100mm\;day^{-1}$. In RCP 4.5 of the late 21st century, relatively uniform temperature increase ($1.0{\sim}2.5^{\circ}C$) is expected throughout the continent, while RCP 8.5 shows a very diverse increase ($3.0{\sim}6.0^{\circ}C$) depending on season and geographical location. In addition, the IAV of temperature is expected to decrease by more than 35% in both scenarios in the summer. In most of the Northwest Pacific region, precipitation is expected to decrease in all seasons except for the summer, but in South Korea, it is projected to increase by about 10% in all seasons except autumn.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.71-79
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• 2014

Climate change has been social and environmental issues, it typically indicates the trend changes of not only temperature but also rainfall. There is a need to consider climate changes in a long-term soil erosion estimation since soil loss in a watershed can be varied by the changes of rainfall intensity and frequency of torrential rainfall. The impacts of rainfall trend changes on soil loss, one of climate changes, were estimated using Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC) employing L module with current climate scenario and future climate scenario collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration. A 62 $km^2$ watershed was selected to explore the climate changes on soil loss. SATEEC provided an increasing trend of soil loss with the climate change scenarios, which were 182 ton/ha/year in 2010s, 169 ton/ha/year in 2020s, 192 ton/ha/year in 2030s,182 ton/ha/year in 2040s, and 218 ton/ha/year in 2050s. Moreover, it was found that approximately 90% of agricultural area in the watershed displayed the soil loss of 50 ton/ha/year which is exceeding the allow able soil loss regulation by the Ministry of Environment.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.201-211
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• 2008

According to IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007, global mean temperatures have risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years. Moreover, in the recent 25 years, global mean temperatures have risen by 0.45 degrees Celsius, which is 2.4-times larger than those in the past 100 years. The evidences for climate change, such as sea level rise, arctic glacier melt, and desertification in Asia, have occurred and increased over the globe. In Korea, because regional climate has been changed, types of agriculture and fishery should be replaced. And as precipitation pattern behave differently from the past decades, water management would be more difficult, furthermore, atmospheric environment, related to concentrations for ozone, sulfate, etc., could be worse. Nevertheless, we have only focused on greenhouse gas reduction duty for the Convention of Climate Change. Fortunately, in the fourth plan on climate change, we have planned to manage climate change more actively since 2007. In Korea, the emission of carbon dioxide has increased about 1.9-times more, from 311million ton in 1990 to 591million ton in 2004. And also about 2 ppm rise every year for concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As a result, ecosystem, quality of water and atmosphere would be affected. Here, the emission of greenhouse gases over the globe is examined, and the effect of greenhouse gases for climate change is reviewed from the results of previous studies. In addition, the countermeasures of mitigation and adaptation on climate change were discussed for the understanding.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.347-356
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• 2001

Even though the increase of greenhouse gases such as $CO_2$ is thought to be the main cause for global warming, its impact on global climate has not been revealed clearly in rather quantitative manners. However, researches using Genral Circulation Model(GCM) has shown that the accumulation of greenhouse gases increases the global mean temperature, which in turn impacts on the global water circulation pattern. A climate predictive capability is limited by lack of understanding of the different process governing the climate and hydrologic systems. The prediction of the complex responses of the fully coupled climate and hydrologic systems can be achieved only through development of models that adequately describe the relevant process at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. These models must ultimately couple the atmospheres, oceans, and lad and will involve many submodels that properly represent the individual processes at work within the coupled components of systems. So far, there are no climate and related hydrologic models except local rainfall-runoff models in Korea. The purpose of this research is to predict the change of temperature in Korean Peninsula using regional scale model(IRSHAM96 model) and GCM data obtained from the increasing scenarios of $CO_2$ Korean Peninsula increased by $2.5^{\circ}C$ and the duration of Winter in $lxCO_2$ condition would be shorter the $2xCo_2$ condition due to global warming.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.120-139
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• 2020

This study is to assess the future agricultural land use and climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement using CLUE-s(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) and RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 HadGEM3-RA(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 Regional Atmosphere) scenario. For Nonsan city(55,517.9ha), the rice paddy, upland crop, and greenhouse cultivation were considered for agricultural land uses and DIROM(Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model) was applied to benefited areas of Tapjeong reservoir (5,713.3ha) for Irrigation Water Requirement(IWR) estimation. For future land use change simulation, the CLUE-s used land uses of 2007, 2013, and 2019 from Ministry of Environment(MOE) and 6 classes(water, urban, rice paddy, upland crop, forest, and greenhouse cultivation). In 2100, the rice paddy and upland crop areas decreased 5.0% and 7.6%, and greenhouse cultivation area increased 24.7% compared to 2013. For the future climate change scenario considering agricultural land use change, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 2090s(2090~2099) IWR decreased 2.1% and 1.0% for rice paddy and upland crops, and increased 11.4% for greenhouse cultivation compared to pure application of future climate change scenario.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.192-202
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• 2024

Ocean reanalysis data are extensively used in ocean circulation and climate research by integrating observational data with numerical models. This approach overcomes the spatial and temporal limitations of observational data and provides high-resolution gridded information that considers the physical interactions between ocean variables. In this study, I extended the previously produced 12-year (2011-2022) Northwest Pacific regional ocean reanalysis data to create a long-term reanalysis dataset (K-ORA22E) with a horizontal resolution of 1/24° spanning 30 years (1993-2022). These data were analyzed to diagnose long-term ocean climate change in the Korean marginal seas. Analysis of the K-ORA22E data revealed that the axis of the Kuroshio extension has shifted northward by approximately 6 km per year over the past 30 years, with a significant increase in sea surface temperature north of the Kuroshio axis. Among the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula, the East Sea exhibited the most significant temperature increase. In the East Sea, the temperature increase was more pronounced in the middle layer than in the surface layer, with the East Korea Warm Current showing a rate two to three times higher than the global average. In the central Yellow Sea, where the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water appears, temperatures increased over the long-term, but decreased along the west and south coasts of the Korean Peninsula. These spatial differences in long-term temperature changes appear to be closely related to the heat transport pathways of warm water from the Kuroshio Current. High-resolution regional ocean reanalysis data, such as the K-ORA22E produced in this study, are essential foundational data for understanding long-term variability in the Korean marginal seas and analyzing the impacts of climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.1388-1392
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• 2008

Water resources management depends on dealing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Dealing with these uncertainties remains a challenge. Streamflow forecasts basically contain uncertainties arising from model structure and initial conditions. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling provide an breakthrough for delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The approach here proposes integration and coupling of global climate models (GCM), multiple regional climate models, and numerous hydrological models to improve streamflow forecasting and characterize system uncertainty through generation of ensemble forecasts.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.469-482
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• 2014

This study developed a Bayesian spatial regional frequency analysis, which aimed to analyze spatial patterns of design rainfall by incorporating geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) and climate characteristics (e.g. annual maximum series) within a Bayesian framework. There are disadvantages to considering geographical characteristics and to increasing uncertainties associated with areal rainfall estimation on the existing regional frequency analysis. In this sense, this study estimated the parameters of Gumbel distribution which is a function of geographical and climate characteristics, and the estimated parameters were spatially interpolated to derive design rainfall over the entire Han-river watershed. The proposed Bayesian spatial regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis, and even better performance in terms of quantifying uncertainty of design rainfall and considering geographical information as a predictor.