• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regime shift

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Exploring Policy Reform Options for the Welfare Regime Shift in Korea (한국 복지의 새판 짜기를 위한 문제 인식과 방안 모색)

  • Hong, Kyung Zoon
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.69 no.2
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    • pp.9-30
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    • 2017
  • Generally, regime shift occurs less frequently than policy change and/or government change. Regime shift needs alterations and changes along the three critical components which constitute a domestic regime: (1) the character of the socioeconomic coalition that rules the country; (2) the political and economic institutions through which power is acquired and exercised; and (3) the public policy profile that give political direction to the nation. This paper tries to examine characteristics of the welfare regime of Korea, and explore policy reform options for the welfare regime shift in Korea. From the viewpoint of livelihood security perspective, I firstly tries to examine development process of Korean welfare regime and specify the main characteristics of that regime. Secondly, I present three policy reform options: (1) reform of the formal political institutions such as electoral system and government type; (2) restructuring of the composition of government expenditure structure; and (3) reduction of the informal employment. These three policy reform options are related to the alteration of socioeconomic coalitions and the changes of the political and economic institutions. Instead of concluding remarks, I finally suggest two debate topics to the round table discussion.

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Seasonal Variation in Zooplankton Related to North Pacific Regime Shift in Korea Sea (북태평양체제전환 (North Pacific Regime Shifts)과 한반도 주변해역 동물플랑크톤 계절주기 변동 특성)

  • Kang, Young-Shil
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2008
  • In the seas around the Korean Peninsula, the seasonal cycle of zooplankton related to North Pacific regime shifts was investigated to understand the reaction of the ecosystem to climate change using long-term data on zooplankton biomass (1965-2000) and the abundance of four major zooplankton groups: copepods, amphipods, chaetognaths, and euphausiids (1978-2000). In general, the zooplankton biomass showed a large peak in spring and a small peak in autumnin Korean waters, but there was a slight difference in the peak time depending on the location and the period before and after the North Pacific regime shift. The zooplankton biomass showed conspicuous seasonal peaks in R-III (1990-2000) compared to R-I (1965-1976) and R-II (1977-1988), and the seasonal peak shifted from the autumn in R-II to the spring in R-III. The peak of copepods and euphausiids in abundance was from April to June, while chaetognaths peaked from August to October. We postulate that the time lag between the peaks for copepods and chaetognaths results from the predator-prey relationship. The regime shift in 1989 did not alter the seasonal cycle of the four major zooplankton groups, although it enhanced their production. The seasonal peaks of the four major zooplankton groups did not shift, while the seasonal peaks of the zooplankton biomass did shift. This was not only becausethe zooplankton biomass included other mesozooplankton groups but also because the abundance of the four major zooplankton groups increased significantly in spring.

Climate change and fluctuations of pelagic fish populations in the Far East region

  • Gong, Yeong;Suh, Young-Sang
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2012
  • Time series of ocean climate indices and catch records were used to identify the alternation patterns of pelagic fish populations in relation to climate regime shifts. During 1910-2008, an orderly alternation of dominant pelagic fish groups was observed in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC; Yellow Sea-East China Sea-East Sea/Japan Sea) and Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC; Northwestern Pacific) regions. After the collapse of herring fishery in the late 1920s, the sardine (A group) dominated in the 1930s, 3 other species (C group; Pacific saury, jack mackerel, and anchovy) dominated in the 1950s-1960s, chub mackerel (B group) dominated in the 1970s, and then sardine (A group) dominated again during cool regime in the 1980s. As sardine biomass decreased in association with the climate regime shift that occurred in the late 1980s, catches of C group immediately increased after the regime shift and remained at high levels during warm regime in the 1990s. Alternations of dominant fish groups occurred 6 times between 1910 and 2008. The dominant period of the 7 species lasted for 10-20 years. The catch of Pacific sardine in the TWC and KOC regions showed a negative correlation with the catch of the other 5 species (Pacific herring, anchovy, jack mackerel, Pacific saury, and common squid), suggesting that the abundance of the 5 species is strongly affected by the abundance of Pacific sardine in relation to the climate regime shifts. The total catch level of the 7 species in the KOC region was generally higher than that in the TWC region before 1991 but was lower after 1992, suggesting that the fish populations in the Pacific side are shifted to the TWC region by zonal oscillation of the oceanic conditions in relation to the climate regime shift in the late 1980s.

Continuity and Change in Korean Welfare Regime ; After 1990 (한국 사회복지정책의 변화와 지속;1990년 이후를 중심으로)

  • Hong, Kyung-Zoon;Song, Ho-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.55
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    • pp.205-230
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    • 2003
  • This article examines the continuity and change of Korean welfare regime during 1990s. Democracy, globalization and the financial crisis changed the landscape of Korean society as a whole and provided a catalyst for the change of the Korean welfare regime. In order to show how and what changed in Korean welfare regime, this study concentrates on the transformations of income maintenance programmes and social welfare services. The changed aspects are as follow: (1) The ratio of social expenditure to GDP has increased during 1990s and now stood at ten percent level. (2)Rather than backing up the company welfare, government strove to build and expand income maintenance devices for all citizens. (3) The poverty and inequality reduction effects of income maintenance programs are very weak in early 1990s, but they are gradually getting stronger impact on poverty and inequality. But, there are also continuance. (1) In spite of the relative development of income maintenance programs, social welfare services are still poorly designed as before. (2) The expenditure level of social welfare services shows sharp contrast to income maintenance programs and lagged behind the other OECD countries. (3) The expansion of social service sector employment are also not so salient. In 2002, social service employment is only at close to 2.5 per cent of the total employment. Accordingly, korean welfare regime is now characterized by a model which is to curb poverty and inequality by engaging in direct government provision of income maintenance programs, but refrain from expanding social service by relying on net welfare which encourage the provision of services within the family. A implication of our analysis is that the expansion of social welfare Korea saw after 1997 was not really an regime shift. According to the arguments of Peter Hall, first and second order changes in policy do not automatically lead to third order changes which imply regime shift. Policy changes which occurred during 1990s was not accompanied by a shift in policy paradigms. Family dependency in welfare is not yet changed.

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Temperature Variabilities at Upper Layer in the Korean Marine Waters Related to Climate Regime Shifts in the North Pacific (한국주변해역 상층부의 수온 변동과 북태평양 기후체제와의 관계)

  • Rahman, SM M.;Lee, Chung Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 2016
  • Temperature variability at the upper layer related to climate regime shifts in the Korean waters was illustrated using water temperature, climate index. Three major climate regime shifts (CRS) in 1976, 1988 and 1998 in north Pacific region had an significant influence on the major marine ecosystems structure pattern. Three marginal seas around Korean peninsula; East Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea also got important impact from this kind of decadal shift. We used 10m sea water temperatures in four regions of Korean waters since 1950 to detect major fluctuation patterns both seasonally and also decadal shift. 1988 CRS was occurred in all of the study areas in most seasons however, 1998 CRS was only detected in the Yellow Sea and in the southern part of the East Sea. 1976 CRS was detected in all of the study area mainly in winter. After 1998 CRS, the water temperature in the southern part of the East Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea were going into decreased pattern; however, in the northern part of the East Sea, it was further shifted to increasing pattern which was started from 1988 CRS period.

The Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates with the Markov Regime Switching Models (마코프 국면전환을 고려한 이자율 기간구조 연구)

  • Rhee, Yu-Na;Park, Se-Young;Jang, Bong-Gyu;Choi, Jong-Oh
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2010
  • This study examines a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model where parameters are subject to switch across the regimes in the term structure of interest rates. To employ the regime switching framework, the Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) is allowed to the regime shifts in the vector of intercept terms, the variance-covariance terms, the error correction terms, and the autoregressive coefficient parts. The corresponding approaches are illustrated using the term structure of interest rates in the US Treasury bonds over the period of 1958 to 2009. Throughout the modeling procedure, we find that the MS-VECM can form a statistically adequate representation of the term structure of interest rate in the US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the regime switching effects are analyzed in connection with the historical government monetary policy and with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, the results from the comparisons both in information criteria and in forecasting exercises with and without the regime switching lead us to conclude that the models in the presence of regime dependence are superior to the linear VECM model.

Effects of Climatic Regime Shift on the Structure of Marine Ecosystem in the Southwestern East Sea during the 1970s (남서부 동해에서 1970년대의 기후체제전환이 생태계의 구조에 미친 영향)

  • ZHANG Chang Ik;YOON Sang Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.389-401
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    • 2003
  • The changes in structure and abundance of taxon or species groups in the East Sea ecosystem were compared between pre- and post-Climatic Regime Shift (CRS) occurred in the mid 1970s using an ECOPATH model. Although the East Sea ecosystem consisted of primary producers, primary consumers, secondary consumers and terminal consumers most species groups were classified as secondary consumers. The mean trophic level between pre- and post-CRS increased from 3.09 during the pre-CRS period to 3.28 during the post-CRS period. Total biomass of the species groups in the East Sea ecosystem increased by $9\%$ due to the CRS, and total catch increased by $48\%.$ The most significant differences between pre- and post-CRS models occurred at the mid/high trophic levels occupied by fishes and cephalopods. Relative contribution of the different species groups to the total energy flow was calculated for the trophic level III. As a result, the status by the dominant species in the East Sea ecosystem shifted from cephalopods to walleye pollock due to the CRS. Relative contribution of 5 species, which were commercially important, such as Pacific saury, Pacific sardine, filefish, walleye pollock and sandfish in trophic level III, were also changed due to the CRS. Finally, the CRS turned out to cause large variations in biomass and catch of fisheries resources as well as the status and role of the major species.

Korean Exchange Rate Regime Change and Its Impact on Inflation in Comparison to Japan and Australia (한국 환율제도의 변화가 국내물가상승에 미치는 영향: 일본 및 호주와의 비교분석)

  • Lee, Byung-Joo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.193-218
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    • 2006
  • This paper examines the macroeconomic structural differences of the free floating exchange rate regime and the managed float exchange rate regime focusing on the Korean economy, and compares it to the two benchmark economies, Japan and Australia. Korea's shift to the free floating exchange rate regime from the managed float exchange rate regime came after the 1997 economic crisis. Korea's exchange rate policy provides a unique opportunity to study the different behaviors or roles, if any, of managed float and free floating exchange rate regimes. Based on a simple monetary model, we find that the exchange rates of Korea are more sensitive to the economic fundamentals under the free floating regime than under the managed float regime. Impulse response analysis shows that exchange rate pass-through into domestic variables, especially inflation rate, has a bigger short-term impact under the floating regime than under the managed regime. This finding is consistent with the view that the managed (or fixed) regime provides the domestic price stability necessary for the economic growth for the developing countries.

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Preliminary Investigation on Spread-Rebound Regime of an Electrically Charged Droplet (전기적으로 대전된 액적의 스프레드-리바운드 거동 영역에 대한 기초 연구)

  • Ryu, Sung-Uk;Lee, Sang-Yong
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05b
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    • pp.2067-2072
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    • 2007
  • Understanding of the impinging behavior of an electrically charged spray is essential in determining appropriate operating conditions for electro-spraying of paints, surface coating materials and insecticides. In the present work, as an initial step, the wall impact of an electrically charged droplet has been experimentally investigated. The charged drops were directed on the surface of a paraffin wax, and the impinging behavior was visualized and recorded using a CCD camera to identify the impingement regime. The spread-rebound boundary for the charged drop turned out to be smaller compared to that for an electrically neutral droplet under the same surface condition. The shift of the transition criterion is considered to be due to the discrepancy between the maximum spread ratio of the electrically charged droplet and that of the neutral droplet.

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Disturbance regime and tree regeneration in kwangnung natural forest (광릉 자연림에서의 교란체제와 수목의 재생)

  • Cho, Do-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.395-410
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    • 1992
  • Disturbance regime and tree regeneration were studied in kwangnung natural forest, an old-growth deciduous hardwood forest located in central korea. This forest is dominated by carpinus laxiflora, c.erosa, and quercus species. The area occupied by canopy gaps was 4.6% of the total forested area, and the mean size of canopy gaps was 92 $m^2$ with the maximum being 524 $m^2$. More than half of the gaps were less than four years old, and 3/4 of the gaps were created by death of only or two canopy trees, indicating the dominance of small-sized gaps in kwangnung forest. about half of the gap-makers were c. laxiflora, and another one third were quercus species. In contrast, the most frequent relacers were c. laxiflora while quercus species filled only 5% of the gaps, suggesting a future shift in tree species composition under the current disturbance regime. tree regeration was more conspicuous even in small gaps than non-gaps regardless of shade-tolerance of tree species, indicating the importance of gaps in tree regeneration.

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