• Title/Summary/Keyword: Recovery probability

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Improvement in facies discrimination using multiple seismic attributes for permeability modelling of the Athabasca Oil Sands, Canada (캐나다 Athabasca 오일샌드의 투수도 모델링을 위한 다양한 탄성파 속성들을 이용한 상 구분 향상)

  • Kashihara, Koji;Tsuji, Takashi
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to develop a reservoir modelling workflow to reproduce the heterogeneous distribution of effective permeability that impacts on the performance of SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage), the in-situ bitumen recovery technique in the Athabasca Oil Sands. Lithologic facies distribution is the main cause of the heterogeneity in bitumen reservoirs in the study area. The target formation consists of sand with mudstone facies in a fluvial-to-estuary channel system, where the mudstone interrupts fluid flow and reduces effective permeability. In this study, the lithologic facies is classified into three classes having different characteristics of effective permeability, depending on the shapes of mudstones. The reservoir modelling workflow of this study consists of two main modules; facies modelling and permeability modelling. The facies modelling provides an identification of the three lithologic facies, using a stochastic approach, which mainly control the effective permeability. The permeability modelling populates mudstone volume fraction first, then transforms it into effective permeability. A series of flow simulations applied to mini-models of the lithologic facies obtains the transformation functions of the mudstone volume fraction into the effective permeability. Seismic data contribute to the facies modelling via providing prior probability of facies, which is incorporated in the facies models by geostatistical techniques. In particular, this study employs a probabilistic neural network utilising multiple seismic attributes in facies prediction that improves the prior probability of facies. The result of using the improved prior probability in facies modelling is compared to the conventional method using a single seismic attribute to demonstrate the improvement in the facies discrimination. Using P-wave velocity in combination with density in the multiple seismic attributes is the essence of the improved facies discrimination. This paper also discusses sand matrix porosity that makes P-wave velocity differ between the different facies in the study area, where the sand matrix porosity is uniquely evaluated using log-derived porosity, P-wave velocity and photographically-predicted mudstone volume.

Effect of the Suicide Prevention Program to the Impulsive Psychology of the Elementary School Student (자살예방 프로그램이 초등학교 충동심리에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Soo Jin;Kang, Ho Jung;Cho, Won Cheol;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2013
  • In this study, the early suicide prevention program was applied to the elementary school students and compared the prior & post effect of the program, and verified the status of psychology change like emotional status, or temptation to take a suicide, and presented the possibility as a suicide prevention program. The period of adolescence is the very unstable period in the process of growth being cognitively immature, emotionally impulsive period. It is the period emotionally unstable and unpredictable possible to select the method of suicide as an extreme method to escape the reality, or impulsive problem solving against small conflict or dispute situation. Many stress of the student such as recent nuclear family, expectation of parents to their children, education problem, socio-environmental elements, individual psychological factor lead students to the extreme activity of suicide in recent days. In this study, the scope of stress experienced in the elementary school as well as idea and degree of temptation regarding suicide by the suicide prevention program were identified, and through prevention program such as meditation training, breath training and through experience of anger control, emotion-expression, self overcome and establish positive self-identity and make understanding Self-control, Self-esteem & preciousness of life based on which the effect to suicide prevention was analyzed. The study was made targeting 51 students of 2 classes of 6th grade of elementary school of Goyang-si and processed 30 minutes every morning focused on through experience & activity of the principle & method of brain science. The data was collected for 20 times before starting morning class by using Suicide Probability Scale(herein SPS-A) designed to predict effectively suicide Probability, suicide risk prediction scale, surveyed by 7 areas such as Positive outlook, Within the family closeness, Impulsivity, Interpersonal hostility, Hopelessness, Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident. Analytical methods and validation was used the Wilcoxon's signed rank test using SPSS Program. Though the process of program in short period, but there was a effective and positive results in the 7 areas in the average comparison. But in the t-test result, there was a different outcome. It indicated changes in the 3 questionnaires (No.7, No.14, No.19) out of 31 SPS-A questionnaires, and there was a no change to the rest item. It also indicated more changes of the students in the class A than class B. And in case of the class A students, psychological changes were verified in the areas of Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident among 7 areas after the program was processed. Through this study, it could be verified that different results could be derived depending on the Student tendency, program professional(teacher in charge, processing lecturer). The suicide prevention program presented in this article can be a help in learning and suicide prevention with consistent systematization, activation through emotion and impulse control based on emotional stress relief and positive self-identity recovery, stabilization of brain waves, and let the short period program not to be died out but to be continued connecting from childhood to adolescence capable to make surrounding environment for spiritual, physical healthy growth for which this could be an effective program for suicide prevention of the social problem.

Development of Response Scenario for a Simulated HNS Spill Incident (위험유해물질 유출사고 대응을 위한 가상시나리오 개발)

  • Lee, Moonjin;Oh, Sangwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2014
  • In response to possible HNS (Hazardous and Noxious Substance) spill accident, HNS spill accident scenario and response scenario were developed. The accident area listed in scenarios is the coastal area of Busan, and scenario for possible accident in the designated area and strategies to respond the accident were developed, respectively. The scenario for accident was developed by designating HNS spill according to risk evaluation of HNS and analysis of HNS spill probability along the coastal area of Busan, and then estimating possible and potential impact from the accident. The scenario for response has been suggested as a systematical responding operations in order to effectively reduce the estimated impact from the accident. The possible HNS spill accident on the seas around Busan, has been designated by the spillage of 1,000ton of xylene due to collision accident in Gamcheon Port, and the possible impacts occurred by the accident has been simulated with the help of the atmospheric and oceanic dispersion model of xylene. In the responding scenario for the accident, a phased strategies regarding emergency rescue of peoples, protection and recovery of xylene, protective measures for the responders, and post management of the accident have been suggested.

Simultaneous determination of 9 preservatives in processed foods using high-performance liquid chromatography with photo diode array detector (HPLC-PDA를 이용한 가공식품 중 보존료 9종 동시분석)

  • Lee, Do-Yeon;Kim, Min-Hee;Ahn, Jang-Hyuk
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to develop an analytical method using Carrez reagents as the precipitant to effectively and easily remove proteins and lipids while pretreating samples for the simultaneous determination of preservatives, including dehydroacetic acid (DHA), sorbic acid (SA), benzoic acid (BA), methyl ρ-hydroxybenzoate (MP), ethyl ρ-hydroxybenzoate (EP), propyl ρ-hydroxybenzoate (PP), isopropyl ρ-hydroxybenzoate (IPP), butyl ρ-hydroxybenzoate (BP), and isobutyl ρ-hydroxybenzoate (IBP). The effective selectivity was determined by HPLC separation analysis for nine preservatives in the test solution, after removing interfering materials such as lipids and proteins. The method developed in this study showed excellent linearity at 0.999 or higher. The limit of detection (LOD) ranged from 0.09 to ~0.12 mg/L and the limit of quantitation (LOQ) was ~0.280.37 mg/L. The results of the recovery test on processed foods, including pickles, cheeses, processed meat products, beverages, sauces, and emulsified foods showed DHA, SA, BA, MP, EP, IPP, PP, IBP, and BP at 90.9~107.7 %, 85.4~113.7 %, 90.7~111.6 %, 84.5~111.2 %, 81.3~110.9 %, 82.5~102.2 %, 81.1~110.0 %, 80.9~109.0 %, and 82.4~110.3 %, respectively. The probability of the simultaneous analytical method developed in this study as a quantitative method was confirmed for various processed foods.

Comparisons of Regeneration Methods Using Physical and Chemical Treatment for Phosphate Removal Restoration of Filter Media (여재의 인 제거기능 회복을 위한 물리화학적 재사용 방안 비교)

  • Kim, Ji Ah;Choi, I Song;Oh, Jong Min;Kim, Won Jae;Park, Jae Roh
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.201-206
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to find the regeneration method of filter media using physical and chemical treatment for restoration of phosphorus adsorption ability. The filtration material used in this study is called Adphos. In an experiment of heating treatment, re-used filter media is heated to a high temperature before the adsorption test. The results show that the $PO{_4}^{3-}-P$ adsorption capacity is in the range of 0.0021 - 0.0030 mg/g and the removal efficiency is in the range of 26.1 - 39.4%. In the experiment of acid or basic treatment, re-used filter media is exposed to a different pH condition before the adsorption test. The results show that the $PO_4^{3-}-P$ adsorption capacity is in the range of 0.0010 - 0.0066 mg/g and the removal efficiency is in the range of 15.8 - 87.1% after the acid treatments which have pH values of 1 - 5. However, after the basic treatments which have pH values of 8 - 11, the results show that the $PO{_4}^{3-}-P$ adsorption capacity is in the range of 0.0018 - 0.0034 mg/g and the removal efficiency is in the range of 26.7 - 48.0%. In an experiment of chemical treatment using NaCl, re-used filter media was exposed to a different NaCl concentration before the adsorption test. The results show that the $PO{_4}^{3-}-P$ adsorption capacity is in the range of 0.0036 - 0.0050 mg/g and the removal efficiency is in the range of 50.5 - 71.1%. In conclusion, chemical treatment using NaCl shows a high recovery probability of phosphorus adsorption ability of filter media.

Proving Causation With Epidemiological Evidence in Tobacco Lawsuits (담배소송에서 역학적 증거에 의한 인과관계의 증명에 관한 소고)

  • Lee, Sun Goo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.80-96
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    • 2016
  • Recently, a series of lawsuits were filed in Korea claiming tort liability against tobacco companies. The Supreme Court has already issued decisions in some cases, while others are still pending. The primary issue in these cases is whether the epidemiological evidence submitted by the plaintiffs clearly proves the causal relationship between smoking and disease as required by civil law. Proving causation is difficult in tobacco lawsuits because factors other than smoking are involved in the development of a disease, and also because of the lapse of time between smoking and the manifestation of the disease. The Supreme Court (Supreme Court Decision, 2011Da22092, April 10, 2014) has imposed some limitations on using epidemiological evidence to prove causation in tobacco lawsuits filed by smokers and their family members, but these limitations should be reconsidered. First, the Court stated that a disease can be categorized as specific or non-specific, and for each disease type, causation can be proven by different types of evidence. However, the concept of specific diseases is not compatible with multifactor theory, which is generally accepted in the field of public health. Second, when the epidemiological association between the disease and the risk factor is proven to be significant, imposing additional burdens of proof on the plaintiff may considerably limit the plaintiff's right to recovery, but the Court required the plaintiffs to provide additional information such as health condition and lifestyle. Third, the Supreme Court is not giving greater weight to the evidential value of epidemiological study results because the Court focuses on the fact that these studies were group-level, not individual-level. However, group-level studies could still offer valuable information about individual members of the group, e.g., probability of causation.