• Title/Summary/Keyword: Recession

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Is Lowest-Low Fertility going to Continue in Korea? (초저출산은 지속될 것인가?)

  • Chung, Sung-Ho
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.113-136
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    • 2010
  • Low fertility has become quite commonplace worldwide, and Europe has experienced below replacement fertility for several decades. In addition, lowest-low fertility, defined as period total fertility rate below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s and is likely to expand further. After the turn of century, lowest-low fertility started spreading in Eastern Asia. Korea's TFR of 1.19 in 2008 is lower than most European countries, although it is higher than the Hongkong(1.02) and Taiwan(1.09). The purpose of this paper is to examine the socioeconomic determinants of lowest-low fertility in Korea. In doing so, this paper discusses the effects of female labour force participation, labour instability on family formation and fertility. The data includes female labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, age at first marriage, and total fertility rate from 1980 to 2008. First, the economic recession hindered young people's economic independence and propensity to marry. Married couples were also depressed with uncertainty toward the future and avoided to have children. Second, the growth in female labor force participation had a negative impact on fertility, under the low level of compatibility between women's work and childrearing. Moreover, this paper argues that the rising cost of children including public and private educational costs is thought to be the main reason of the recent low fertility in Korea. Policy implications and some comments on population policies are also presented in the final section.

Case of Anterior Segment Ischemia after Two Vertical Rectus Muscles Surgery (두 개의 수직근수술 후 발생한 전안부허혈 1예)

  • Ahn, Jayoung;Kim, Gyu Nam;Kim, Seong Jae;Chung, In Young;Seo, Seong Wook;Yoo, Ji Myong
    • Journal of The Korean Ophthalmological Society
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    • v.59 no.12
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    • pp.1195-1200
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To report a case of anterior segment ischemia after superior and inferior rectus muscle surgery in a patient with superior rectus muscle enlargement. This is the first report in the Republic of Korea of anterior segment ischemia after two rectus muscles surgery. Case summary: An 80-year-old male was referred to our clinic with a 3 years history of diplopia. The patient had 30 prism diopters right eye hypertropia in the primary position and downgaze limitation. The orbital computed tomography scan revealed enlargement of the right superior rectus muscle. He underwent right superior rectus recession and inferior rectus resection. On postoperative day 2, slit lamp examination revealed diffuse corneal edema, Descemet's membrane folding, an aqueous flare and a dilated pupil. Treatment with 45 mg oral steroid was initiated, and 1% prednisolone acetate and 0.5% Levofloxacin eye drops were administered. At postoperative 1 month, the patient was orthophoric in the primary position, and there was no corneal edema, pupil abnormality or aqueous flare. Conclusions: Base on the present case, the possibility of anterior segment ischemia should be considered after even two muscles surgery, and older patients with vertical muscle surgery should be considered more carefully.

Effect of the Spread on Housing Mortgage Loans (가산금리가 주택담보대출에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Woo Seok
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.75-88
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the spread on housing mortgage loans. In particular, this study analyzes how the spread has a decisive effect on housing mortgage loans when a structural change occurs in the spread. For the sake of empirical analysis, this study utilizes the housing mortgage loan, housing mortgage loan interest rate, COFIX interest rate, and spread. The period of analysis is from December 2010 to December 2017. Results of the analysis show that there is a statistically significant structural change in the spread and housing mortgage loans (May and June 2015, respectively). It is estimated that the structural change in the spread has an influence on the structural change in housing mortgage loans. In addition, the effect of the spread on housing mortgage loans is larger than the effect of the COFIX interest rate and the housing mortgage loan interest rate. This indicates that the adjustment of the spread is a significant burden on housing mortgage loans. As economic uncertainties both internally and externally are increasing, pressure on interest rate hikes is also increasing. Considering these circumstances, interest rate hikes will be inevitable in the future. If the base interest rate and the spread increase simultaneously at Korea's current economic level, it will obviously lead to an economic recession as the burden on the repayment of principal and interest of housing mortgage loans will increase. Therefore, it is imperative that financial authorities prepare institutional arrangements in order to protect financial consumers by preventing arbitrary calculation of the spread, which would not be objective and would not be transparent from the banks.

Peace Leadership and the New Economic Initiative of the Korean Peninsula : Focusing on Exchanges and Cooperation between South and North in the Moon Jae-in Government (평화리더십과 한반도신경제구상 : 문재인 정부의 남북교류협력을 중심으로)

  • Yang, young-mo
    • Korea and Global Affairs
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.59-86
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    • 2019
  • This study explores "4.27 Panmunjom Declaration" and "9.19 Pyongyang Declaration" for the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula in terms of inter-Korean exchanges and scrutinizes the Declarations in conjunction with the New Economic Initiative of the Korean Peninsula. The leadership of President Moon Jae-in pursues the value of the "peaceful and prosperous Korean Peninsula" of which pre-requisite and requirement are exchanges and cooperation between South and North Koreas. The New Economic Initiative of the Korea Peninsula for economic prosperity proposed in the inter-Korean summit premises complete denuclearization in the Peninsula. It is accentuated that the Initiative provides a new tonic impetus to the Korean economy in recession, and simultaneously, shapes a necessary foundation for the economic development of North Korea. The Initiative with connotation of the two Korea's mutual opulence aims at proceeding to a new Korean Peninsular system. The new system implies the new peace-cooperative community where confrontation and discord are ceased, and the new economic-cooperative one where the age of ideological rivalry comes to an end. The two Koreas have to lead the new age of peaceful and prosperous Northeast Asia as a buffer zone of peace.

A Comparative Study on the Characteristics of Crimes in Quarterly according to the Corona 19 Pandemic Period (코로나19 감염병 유행 시기에 따른 분기별 범죄특성 비교분석)

  • Oh, Seiyouen;Kim, Hakbum
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.674-683
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the changes in the pattern of crimes caused by the spread and slowdown of coronavirus infections and to devise preventive and countermeasures against various crimes in the future. Method: In order to find out the characteristics of each crime in the non-face-to-face and face-to-face environment, the results of previous prior research and data officially released by the National Police Agency and the prosecution office were compared and analyzed. Result: In the early epidemic of infectious diseases, overall crime has decreased, and civil life-related crimes and crimes targeting the socially disadvantaged are increasing. In the second half of the infectious disease, unlike the first half, the prolonged corona caused the economic recession and unemployment, deepening the damage from illegal private finance and significantly increasing illegal gambling game crimes. Conclusion: According to the time of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the quarterly crime characteristics showed that there was a difference in crime type and crime increase and decrease rate, and that crime response measures should be changed accordingly.

Herding Behavior of the Seoul Apartment Market (서울시 아파트시장의 군집행동 분석)

  • Kim, Jung Sun;Yu, Jung Suk
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.91-104
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the occurrence and degree of herding behavior as a market participant behavior in a housing market were analyzed. For the analysis method, the actual sales price was applied in the CSAD (Cross-sectional Absolute Deviation) model, which has been used the most of late for herding behavior analysis. For the analysis contents, these were subdivided into region, elapsed year, size, and market condition to analyze the regionality and the internal and external factors. For the study results, first, there was no herding behavior in the entire region of Seoul. By region, herding behavior occurred in the downtown, southeast, and northwest regions, which coincided with the results of the precedent study (Ngene et al., 2017). Second, in the market analysis by elapsed year, herding behavior was captured in dilapidated dwellings. By size, herding behavior was observed in small-scale ($60m^2$ or less) apartments and in $85m^2$ or higher and less than $102m^2$ national housing units. Third, during the time of the global financial crisis, herding behavior was not observed in all the regions, whereas when the market situations were in a boom cycle, it was observed in the northwest region. These results suggest that there is a difference from the stock market, where in a period of recession, herding behavior occurs intensively with the expanding fear of incurring losses. This study is significant in that it analyzed the market participant behaviors in the behavioral economic aspects to better understand the abnormal phenomenon in a housing market, and in that it additionally provides a psychological factor - market participant behavior - in market analysis.

A Study on the Location Determinants for the Sales of Railroad Convenience Stores - With Focus on the Convenience Store "Storyway" - (철도역사 편의점 매출에 영향을 미치는 입지요인에 관한 연구 : 스토리웨이(Storyway)를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yong Rae;Baek, Sung Joon
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.7-21
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to determine the location determinants that influence the sales of the "Storyway" convenience stores built at the country's railway stations. The preceding studies were about the convenience stores located in the residence-business areas or along the roadsides. This study, on the other hand, focused on the characteristics of the stations, based on a theory that is different from the existing theories. The targets of this study were the 301 "Storyway" convenience stores doing business in the 198 railway stations in the country, and the dummy parameter and hedonic-price model function were used for multiple regression analysis. For the study results, it was found that the number of people using the railway and the size of the store have a positive effect on the sales whereas the other brand competitors have a negative effect thereon. Second, the subway stations holding 89% of the total passengers in the country have unexpectedly no positive influence on the sales. Third, depending on the transfer, it was found that no transfer station had smaller sales than the transfer stations. Finally, as for the location of the stores in the station, the stores located on the platforms or passageways have a smaller turnover rate than the stores in the welcoming spaces and squares. This research result shows that when starting a convenience store business, the number of people using the railway, the size of the store, the transfer possibility, and the location of the store inside the station have to be considered under the circumstance of recession on the part of the convenience stores due to excessive competition.

Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics in Gokgyochun Basin Using a Runoff Model (유출모형을 이용한 곡교천 유역의 강우-유출 특성 분석)

  • Hwan, Byungl-Ki;Cho, Yong-Soo;Yang, Seung-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.404-411
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the HEC-HMS was applied to determine rainfall-runoff processes for the Gokgyuchun basin. Several sub-basins have large-scale reservoirs for agricultural needs and they store large amounts of initial runoff. Three infiltration methods were implemented to reflect the effect of initial loss by reservoirs: 'SCS-CN'(Scheme I), 'SCS-CN' with simple surface method(Scheme II), and 'Initial and Constant rate'(Scheme III). Modeling processes include incorporating three different methods for loss due to infiltration, Clark's UH model for transformation, exponential recession model for baseflow, and Muskingum model for channel routing. The parameters were calibrated using an optimization technique with trial and error method. Performance measures, such as NSE, RAR, and PBIAS, were adopted to aid in the calibration processes. The model performance for those methods was evaluated at Gangcheong station, which is the outlet of study site. Good accuracy in predicting runoff volume and peak flow, and peak time was obtained using the Scheme II and III, considering the initial loss, whereas Scheme I showed low reliability for storms. Scheme III did not show good matches between observed and simulated values for storms with multi peaks. Conclusively, Scheme II provided better results for both single and multi-peak storms. The results of this study can provide a useful tool for decision makers to determine master plans for regional flood control management.

The Periodical Trend of Urban Regeneration through Mass Media - Focused on the 1920s and 1990s - (매스미디어를 통해 본 도시재생의 시대적 동향 - 1920년대~1990년대를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Sa-rang;Lee, Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.28-48
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    • 2019
  • This research is aimed at identifying the perception associated with urban regeneration and predicting policy implications of future directions by analyzing the trend of urban regeneration depicted in the mass media by utilizing SNA (Semantic-Network Analysis) techniques. As the number of articles has increased, it is noted through analysis that the interrelationships between social phenomena and issues have combined to form the meaning of urban regeneration. Overall, 'urban' and 'regeneration' keywords also appeared at different periods, with 'urban' closely related to 'regeneration' starting in 1970 when urbanization was becoming more prevalent. It was analyzed that the frequency of 'urban' appeared more frequently in the early 1990s, while the frequency of 'rural' decreased sharply. Until the 1990s, the slums and the recession that appeared as side effects of urban problem-solving policies were mostly concentrated in cities. Policy discussions were conducted with the goal of improving the physical environment of cities rather than concentrating on the surrounding rural areas. The distributions of the keywords 'development' and 'regeneration' have increased quantitatively since the 1970s, and urban polarization has exploded due to the development of the external growth of cities, mirroring the trend of accelerated environmental threats. In particular, the keywords for 'regeneration' emerged mainly related to environmental problems, which led to the need for urban regeneration, and environmentally and ecologically friendly development. The emergence of "urban," "regeneration" and "environment" as keywords having to do with urban regeneration grew in the 1990s. This suggests that urban regeneration is now linked to "environment", as that has become a social issue.

A Comparative Case Study on Urban Strategy for Flexible Smart Shrinking City (유연한 스마트 축소도시를 위한 국내·외 도시전략 비교 연구)

  • Choi, Wan-Young;Lee, Heewon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.634-641
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    • 2019
  • The world's population reached 7.7 billion in 2019. Despite this trend, not all cities are growing. Most of the growing population is driven to large cities for convenience and jobs. This phenomenon has led to a decrease in the population of small and medium-sized cities, and in certain cities, a decrease in employment as well as recession have resulted. Korea is no exception. The nation's population is concentrated in the metropolitan cities. To solve these problems, researchers started to study how to deal with the contraction of a city, i.e., a shrinking city, rather than focusing on only the growth of a city. In this paper, demographically outstanding declined domestic cities were selected as shrinking cities and their characteristics were analyzed. The concept of smart shrinking cities was then defined for the selected cities, which were chosen as a good case in overseas countries to solve the shrinking city problem. Through this process, the strategic differences were compared between domestic and oversea cases. As a result, a modified strategy for the smart shrinking city concept, FSSC (flexible smart shrinking city), is proposed as an alternative strategy that can save resources and cost.