• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.109-128
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• 2016

This paper presents a new combined forecasting method that is guided by the soft set theory (CFBSS) to predict business failures with different sample sizes. The proposed method combines both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to improve forecasting performance. We considered an expert system (ES), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM) as forecasting components whose weights are determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The proposed procedure was applied to real data sets from Chinese listed firms. For performance comparison, single ES, LR, and SVM methods, the combined forecasting method based on equal weights (CFBEWs), the combined forecasting method based on neural networks (CFBNNs), and the combined forecasting method based on rough sets and the D-S theory (CFBRSDS) were also included in the empirical experiment. CFBSS obtains the highest forecasting accuracy and the second-best forecasting stability. The empirical results demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of our method in terms of accuracy and stability.

• 수면정신생리
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.26-31
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• 1999

"Attention" is not defined sufficiently. This term incorporates several dimensions or complex information processes such as alertness, spatial distribution, focused attention, sustained attention, divided attention and supervisory attentional control. In practice, however, various aspects of attention cannot be assessed separately with a single test. Moreover, a particular test is never assessing attention only, because the several intervening variables may influence the attentional component. Therefore, one can only assess a certain aspect of human behavior with special interest for its attentional component. This paper attempted to clarify various concepts of attention, reviewed signal detection theories with receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves, and listed practical methods for assessment of attention.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권16호
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• pp.6781-6785
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• 2014

Purpose: This study used receiver operating characteristic curves to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) medulloblastoma (MB) and primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET) outcome data. The aim of this study was to identify and optimize predictive outcome models. Materials and Methods: Patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 were selected for analysis of socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for MB and PNET. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized linear model to predict the outcome (brain cancer specific death, yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A Monte Carlo algorithm was used to estimate the modeling errors. Results: There were 3,702 patients included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 73.7 (86.2) months. Some 40% of the patients were female and the mean (S.D.) age was 16.5 (16.6) years. There were more adult MB/PNET patients listed from SEER data than pediatric and young adult patients. Only 12% of patients were staged. The SEER staging has the highest ROC (S.D.) area of 0.55 (0.05) among the factors tested. We simplified the 3-layered risk levels (local, regional, distant) to a simpler non-metastatic (I and II) versus metastatic (III) model. The ROC area (S.D.) of the 2-tiered model was 0.57 (0.04). Conclusions: ROC analysis optimized the most predictive SEER staging model. The high under staging rate may have prevented patients from selecting definitive radiotherapy after surgery.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.130-139
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• 2017

With the need to evaluate accuracy of real-time measurement of cyanobacterial fluorescence to determine cyanobacterial blooms, this research examined 357 paired data (2013-2016) comprising both microscopic toxic cyanobacterial cell counts and concurrent real-time cyanobacterial concentrations at 2 sites (YS1 and YS2) in Yeongsan river. The increase in real-time cyanobacterial concentration was closely associated with the exceedance of 5,000 cyanobacterial cells/ml (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.12) and 10,000 cells/ml (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04-1.12) at YS2 site. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the real-time cyanobacterial measurement at the YS2 site was 0.93, which indicates the measurement provides a high accurate detection of cyanobacterial blooms. On the ROC curve, the early alert levels of real-time cyanobacteria ranging $16-23{\mu}g$ chl-a/L would produce acceptable sensitivity of 79% and specificities greater than 90%. The real-time fluorescence measurement was found to be an accurate indicator of cyanobacteria and can serve as a tool for detecting toxic cyanobacterial bloom events in Youngsan river.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.683-696
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• 2017

In this study, the reliability of nonlinear ultrasonic modulation based fatigue crack detection is improved using a feature-level data fusion approach. When two ultrasonic inputs at two distinct frequencies are applied to a specimen with a fatigue crack, modulation components at the summation and difference of these two input frequencies appear. First, the spectral amplitudes of the modulation components and their spectral correlations are defined as individual features. Then, a 2D feature space is constructed by combining these two features, and the presence of a fatigue crack is identified in the feature space. The effectiveness of the proposed fatigue crack detection technique is experimentally validated through cyclic loading tests of aluminum plates, full-scale steel girders and a rotating shaft component. Subsequently, the improved reliability of the proposed technique is quantitatively investigated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. The uniqueness of this study lies in (1) improvement of nonlinear ultrasonic modulation based fatigue crack detection reliability using feature-level data fusion, (2) reference-free fatigue crack diagnosis without using the baseline data obtained from the intact condition of the structure, (3) application to full-scale steel girders and shaft component, and (4) quantitative investigation of the improved reliability using receiver operating characteristic analysis.

• Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.54-60
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• 2018

Objective: Persons with chronic stroke fall more often than healthy elderly individuals. The Timed Up and Go test (TUG) is used as a fall prediction tool, but only provides a result for the total measurement time. This study aimed to determine the optimal cut-off values for each of the 6 components of the TUG. Design: Retrospective study. Methods: Thirty persons with chronic stroke participated in the study. TUG evaluation was performed using a wearable miniaturized inertial sensor. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for the measured values in each section. Optimal values for fall risk classification were determined. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk of future falls based on TUG. Results: The cut-off values of the 6 sections of the TUG were determined, as follows: sit-to-stand >2.00 seconds (p<0.05), forward gait >4.68 seconds (p<0.05), mid-turn >3.82 seconds (p<0.05), return gait >4.81 seconds (p<0.05), end-turn >2.95 seconds (p<0.05), and stand-to-sit >2.13 seconds (p<0.05). The risk of falling increased by 2.278 times when the mid-turn value was >3.82 seconds (p<0.05). Conclusions: The risk of falls increased by 2.28 times when the value of the mid-turn interval exceeded 3.82 seconds. Therefore, when interpreting TUG results, the predictive accuracy for falls will be higher when the measurement time for each section is analyzed, together with the total time for TUG.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.205-215
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• 1998

정규분포에 관한 검정에 있어서 P-P 플롯과 Q-Q 플롯의 가시적인 변동을 이용한 통계량을 제시하고 이 통계량들과 Shapiro-Wilk의 W 통계량과의 비교를 정확도(accuracy)의 측면을 고려하여 실시하였다. 또한, 의학이나 임상에서 척도의 우수성을 검정하기 위해 많이 사용하는 Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) 분석 기법을 이용하여 제시된 통계량들에 관한 Power와 Accuracy는 물론 Best Cut-Off 측면에서의 효율성을 검정하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.687-694
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• 1999

The goodness of fit statistics of normality plots are obtained using the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) method. This work is intended to compare with Shapiro-Wilk W statistic. Wel will use and discuss an accuracy of the test and the best cut-off value which minimizes the sum of the type I and II error probabilities.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.162-169
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• 2003

Purpose: This study was to compare the predictive validity of Norton Scale(1962), Cubbin & Jackson Scale(1991), and Song & Choi Scale(1991). Method: Data were collected three times per week from 48~72hours after admission based on the four pressure sore risk assessment scales and a skin assessment tool for pressure sore on 112 intensive care unit(ICU) patients in a educational hospital Ulsan during Dec, 11, 2000 to Feb, 10, 2001. Four indices of validity and area under the curve(AUC) of receiver operating characteristic(ROC) were calculated. Result: Based on the cut off point presented by the developer, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value were as follows : Norton Scale : 97%, 18%, 35%, 93% respectively; Cubbin & Jackson Scale : 89%, 61%, 51%, 92%, respectively; and Song & Choi Scale : 100%, 18%, 36%, 100% respectively. Area under the curves(AUC) of receiver operating characteristic(ROC) were Norton Scale .737, Cubbin & Jackson Scale .826, Song & Choi Scale .683. Conclusion: The Cubbin & Jackson Scale was found to be the most valid pressure sore risk assessment tool. Further studies on patients with chronic conditions may be helpful to validate this finding.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.63-66
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• 2008

Objective : The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between various transcranial Doppler (TCD) ultrasonography parameters and clinical vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods : This study enrolled 40 patients presented with aneurysmal SAH between September 2006 and August 2007. We measured differences of mean blood flow velocity (BFVm), highest systolic blood flow velocity (BFVh), and Lindegaard ratio (LR) in the middle cerebral artery on TCD examination. These parameters were evaluated for correlation with clinical vasospasm by univariate analysis and the receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results : Twelve patients (30%) developed clinical vasospasm. The best TCD parameters for the detection of clinical vasospasm were revealed to be differences of BFVm, BFVh, and LR values between $1^{st}$ TCD test and $3^{rd}$ TCD (7 cm/s. 11.5 cm/s, 0.45 respectively). The positive predictive value of anyone of three parameters was 60% and the negative predictive value was 100%. Conclusion : TCD is still considered a useful tool for screening clinical vasospasm. To confirm the predictive value of the above parameters. further prospective study will be needed.