• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real time forecast

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Data Assimilation of Real-time Air Quality Forecast using CUDA (CUDA를 이용한 실시간 대기질 예보 자료동화)

  • Bae, Hyo-Sik;Yu, Suk-Hyun;Kwon, Hee-Yong
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.271-277
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    • 2017
  • As a result of rapid industrialization, air pollutants are seriously threatening the health of the people, the forecast is becoming more and more important. In forecasting air quality, it is very important to create a reliable initial field because the initial field input to the air quality forecasting model affects the accuracy of the forecast. There are several methods for enhancing the initial field input. One of the necessary techniques is data assimilation. The number of operations and the time required for such data assimilation is exponentially increased as the forecasting area is widened and the number of observation sites increases. Therefore, as the forecast size increases, it is difficult to apply the existing sequential processing method to a field requiring fast processing speed. In this paper, we propose a method that can process Cresman's method, which is one of the data assimilation techniques, in real time using CUDA. As a result, the proposed parallel processing method using CUDA improved at least 35 times faster than the conventional sequential method and other parallel processing methods.

A Study on the Application of Flood Disaster Management Using GIS

  • Jeong, In Ju;Kim, Sang Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.111-123
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    • 2004
  • Recently, though damage caused by intensive rainfall and typhoon happens frequently, we could not forecast or predict a disaster, due to the difficulty of obtaining exact information about it. For efficient disaster management, the most urgent need is the preparation of a flood forecast-warning system. Therefore, we need to provide a program that has the ability of inundation analysis and flood forecast-warning using a geographic information system, and using domestic technology rather than that from foreign countries. In this research, we constructed a FDMS(Flood Disaster Management System) that is able to analyze real-time inundation data, and usins the GIS(Ceographic Information System) with prompt analyzing of hydrologic-topographical parameters and runoff-computation. Moreover, by expressing inundation analysis in three-dimensions, we were able to get to the inundation area with ease. Finally, we expect that the application of this method in the (food forecast-warning system will have great role in reducing casualties and damage.

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Applicable Evaluation of the Latest Land-use Data for Developing a Real-time Atmospheric Field Prediction of RAMS (RAMS의 실시간 기상장 예측 향상을 위한 최신 토지피복도 자료의 적용가능성)

  • Won, Gyeong-Mee;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Yu, Jeong-Ah;Hong, Hyun-Su;Hwang, Man-Sik;Chun, Kwang-Su;Choi, Kwang-Su;Lee, Moon-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2008
  • Chemical Accident Response Information System (CARIS) which has been designed for the efficient emergency response of chemical accidents produces the real-time atmospheric fields through the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, RAMS. The previous studies were emphasized that improving an initial input data had more effective results in developing prediction ability of atmospheric model. In a continuous effort to improve an initial input data, we replaced the land-use dataset using in the RAMS, which is a high resolution USGS digital data constructed in April, 1993, with the latest land-use data of the Korea Ministry of Environment over the South Korea and simulated atmospheric fields for developing a real-time prediction in dispersion of chemicals. The results showed that the new land-use data was written in a standard RAMS format and shown the modified surface characteristics and the landscape heterogeneity resulting from land-use change. In the results of sensitivity experiment we got the improved atmospheric fields and assured that it will give more reliable real-time atmospheric fields to all users of CARIS for the dispersion forecast in associated with hazardous chemical releases as well as general air pollutants.

Application of rip current likelihood distributions on rip current forecast system (이안류 예보를 위한 이안류 발생정도 분포 함수의 적용)

  • Choi, Junwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.8
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    • pp.521-528
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    • 2023
  • An approach for producing a rip current risk index using the rip current likelihood distribution obtained through the FUNWAVE simulations was applied to a rip current forecast system. The approach originally developed for an observation-based real-time rip current warning system was utilized with wave forecast data instead of observations for the rip current forecast system. The availability of the present approach was checked by comparing the observation-based rip current risk index and the wave forecast-based rip current risk index of the Haeundae Beach in 2021.

Real-time Flood Forecasting Model Based on the Condition of Soil Moisture in the Watershed (유역토양수분 추적에 의한 실시간 홍수예측모형)

  • 김태철;박승기;문종필
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 1995
  • One of the most difficult problem to estimate the flood inflow is how to understand the effective rainfall. The effective rainfall is absolutely influenced by the condition of soil moisture in the watershed just before the storm event. DAWAST model developed to simulate the daily streamflow considering the meteologic and geographic characteristics in the Korean watersheds was applied to understand the soil moisture and estimate the effective rainfall rather accurately through the daily water balance in the watershed. From this soil moisture and effective rainfall, concentration time, dimensionless hydrograph, and addition of baseflow, the rainfall-runoff model for flood flow was developed by converting the concept of long-term runoff into short-term runoff. And, real-time flood forecasting model was also developed to forecast the flood-inflow hydrograph to the river and reservoir, and called RETFLO model. According to the model verification, RETFLO model can be practically applied to the medium and small river and reservoir to forecast the flood hydrograph with peak discharge, peak time, and volume. Consequently, flood forecasting and warning system in the river and the reservoir can be greatly improved by using personal computer.

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Research on Real-time Flow Rate Measurement and Flood Forecast System Based on Radar Sensors (레이다 센서 기반 실시간 유량 측정 및 홍수 예측 시스템 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Woo;Seok, Hyuk-Jun;Jung, Kee-Heon;Na, Kuk-Jin;Lee, Seung-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.288-290
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    • 2022
  • As part of the SOC digitization for smart water management and flood prevention, the government reported that automatic and remote control system for drainage facilities (180 billion won) to 57% of national rivers and established a real-time monitoring system (30 billion won). In addition, they were also planning to establish a smart dam safety management system (15 billion won) based on big data at 11 regions. Therefore, research is needed for smart water management and flood prevention system that can accurately calculate the flow rate through real-time flow rate measurement of rivers. In particular, the most important thing to improve the system implementation and accuracy is to ensure the accuracy of real-time flow rate measurements. To this end, radar sensors for measuring the flow rate of electromagnetic waves in the United States and Europe have been introduced and applied to the system in Korea, but demand for improvement of the system continues due to high price range and performance. Consequently, we would like to propose an improved flow rate measurement and flood forecast system by developing a radar sensor for measuring the electromagnetic surface current meter for real-time flow rate measurement.

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Review of Operational Multi-Scale Environment Model with Grid Adaptivity

  • Kang, Sung-Dae
    • Environmental Sciences Bulletin of The Korean Environmental Sciences Society
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    • v.10 no.S_1
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    • pp.23-28
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    • 2001
  • A new numerical weather prediction and dispersion model, the Operational Multi-scale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity(OMEGA) including an embedded Atmospheric Dispersion Model(ADM), is introduced as a next generation atmospheric simulation system for real-time hazard predictions, such as severe weather or the transport of hazardous release. OMEGA is based on an unstructured grid that can facilitate a continuously varying horizontal grid resolution ranging from 100 km down to 1 km and a vertical resolution from 20 -30 meters in the boundary layer to 1 km in the free atmosphere. OMEGA is also naturally scale spanning and time. In particular, the unstructured grid cells in the horizontal dimension can increase the local resolution to better capture the topography or important physical features of the atmospheric circulation and cloud dynamics. This means the OMEGA can readily adapt its grid to a stationary surface, terrain features, or dynamic features in an evolving weather pattern. While adaptive numerical techniques have yet to be extensively applied in atmospheric models, the OMEGA model is the first to exploit the adaptive nature of an unstructured gridding technique for atmospheric simulation and real-time hazard prediction. The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed description of the OMEGA model, the OMEGA system, and a detailed comparison of OMEGA forecast results with observed data.

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Development of Stochastic Real-Time Forecast System by Storage Function Method (저류함수법을 이용한 추계학적 실시간 홍수예측모형 개발)

  • Bae, Deok-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.449-457
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    • 1997
  • This study attempts to develop a stochastic-dynamic real-time flow forecasting model for an event-orient watershed storage function model (SFM), which has been used as an official flood computation model in Korea, and to evaluate its performance for real-time flow forecast. The study area is the 747.5$\textrm{km}^2$ Hwecheon basin with outlet at Gaejin and the 8 single flow events during 1983-1986 are selected for comparison and verification of model parameter and model performance. The used model parameters in this study are the same values on field work. It is shown that results from the existing model highly depend on the events, but those from the developed model are stable and well predict the flows for the selected flood events. The coefficient of model efficiency between observed and predicted flows for the events was above 0.90. It is concluded that the developed model that can consider model and observation uncertainties during a flood event is feasible and produces reliable real-time flow forecasts on the area.

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Artificial Neural Network-based Real Time Water Temperature Prediction in the Soyang River (인공신경망 기반 실시간 소양강 수온 예측)

  • Jeong, Karpjoo;Lee, Jonghyun;Lee, Keun Young;Kim, Bomchul
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.65 no.12
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    • pp.2084-2093
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    • 2016
  • It is crucial to predict water temperature for aquatic ecosystem studies and management. In this paper, we first address challenging issues in predicting water temperature in a real time manner and propose a distributed computing model to address such issues. Then, we present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based water temperature prediction model developed for the Soyang River and a cyberinfrastructure system called WT-Agabus to run such prediction models in an automated and real time manner. The ANN model is designed to use only weather forecast data (air temperature and rainfall) that can be obtained by invoking the weather forecasting system at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and therefore can facilitate the automated and real time water temperature prediction. This paper also demonstrates how easily and efficiently the real time prediction can be implemented with the WT-Agabus prototype system.

Impact of Snow Depth Initialization on Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature over East Asia for Winter Season (겨울철 동아시아 지역 기온의 계절 예측에 눈깊이 초기화가 미치는 영향)

  • Woo, Sung-Ho;Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Kim, Baek-Min;Kim, Seong-Joong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.117-128
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    • 2012
  • Does snow depth initialization have a quantitative impact on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction skill? To answer this question, a snow depth initialization technique for seasonal forecast system has been implemented and the impact of the initialization on the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature during the wintertime is examined. Since the snow depth observation can not be directly used in the model simulation due to the large systematic bias and much smaller model variability, an anomaly rescaling method to the snow depth initialization is applied. Snow depth in the model is initialized by adding a rescaled snow depth observation anomaly to the model snow depth climatology. A suite of seasonal forecast is performed for each year in recent 12 years (1999-2010) with and without the snow depth initialization to evaluate the performance of the developed technique. The results show that the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature over East Asian region sensitively depends on the initial snow depth anomaly over the region. However, the sensitivity shows large differences for different timing of the initialization and forecast lead time. Especially, the snow depth anomaly initialized in the late winter (Mar. 1) is the most effective in modulating the surface air temperature anomaly after one month. The real predictability gained by the snow depth initialization is also examined from the comparison with observation. The gain of the real predictability is generally small except for the forecasting experiment in the early winter (Nov. 1), which shows some skillful forecasts. Implications of these results and future directions for further development are discussed.