• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real Output Growth

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Information Variables for the Predictability of Future Changes in Real Growth (실질 성장의 미래 변화 예측을 위한 정보변수)

  • Kim, Tae Ho;Jung, Jae Hwa;Kim, Min Jeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.253-265
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    • 2013
  • It has been interested in developing useful information variables that are able to predict the future movement of final objects to attain the specific policy and strategic target. Term structure of interest rates is known as an important variable to predict future business and economic activity, yet there is little empirical work on the predictability of future changes in real output. This study attempts to develop the statistical model and examine whether domestic term structure of interest rates can predict variations of future cumulative changes in real growth on a long time horizon.

Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Variables and the Liquidity of Jordanian Commercial Banks

  • AL-QUDAH, Ali Mustafa
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2020
  • This study aimed to explore the impact of macroeconomic (Real GDP growth (GDPG), Inflation rate (INF)) and bank -specific variables (profitability (ROA), capital adequacy (CADEQ), non-performing loans (NPL), deposit growth (DEPG)) on the liquidity (lIQ) of 13 listed Jordanian commercial banks for the period 2011-2018. Panel data analysis, Pooled least square, fixed effects model and random effects model, Lagrange multiplier test, and Hausman test were used. The random effects model output shows that, macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on Jordanian commercial banks liquidity since inflation has a positive impact while GDPG has a negative impact on banks (LIQ). On the other hand among the bank-specific variables capital adequacy and deposit growth have a positive significant impact on banks (LIQ), while (NPL) and (SIZE) have a negative significant impact on Jordanian commercial banks liquidity. But ROA has a negative insignificant impact on (LIQ). The findings of the study suggest that commercial banks departments need to pay attention to the economic and internal variables of banks in order to maintain acceptable levels of liquidity.

Neural Network Analysis in Forecasting the Malaysian GDP

  • SANUSI, Nur Azura;MOOSIN, Adzie Faraha;KUSAIRI, Suhal
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to develop basic artificial neural network models in forecasting the in-sample gross domestic product (GDP) of Malaysia. GDP is one of the main indicators in presenting the macro economic condition of a country as set by the world authority bodies such as the World Bank. Hence, this study uses an artificial neural network-based approach to make predictions concerning the economic growth of Malaysia. This method has been proposed due to its ability to overcome multicollinearity among variables, as well as the ability to cope with non-linear problems in Malaysia's growth data. The selected inputs and outputs are based on the previous literatures as well as the economic growth theory. Therefore, the selected inputs are exports, imports, private consumption, government expenditure, consumer price index (CPI), inflation rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and money supply, which includes M1 and M2. Whilst, the output is real gross domestic product growth rate. The results of this study showed that the neural network method gives the smallest value of mean error which is 0.81 percent with a total difference of 0.70 percent. This implies that the neural network model is appropriate and is a relevant method in forecasting the economic growth of Malaysia.

Nonlinear Observer flay Applications of Fermentation Process in Stirred Tank Bioreactor

  • Kim, Hak-Kyeong;Nguyen, Tan-Tien;Kim, Sang-Bong
    • Transactions on Control, Automation and Systems Engineering
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.244-250
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    • 2002
  • This paper proposed a modified observer based on Busawon's high gain observer using an appropriate time depended function, which can be chosen to make each estimated state converge faster to its real value. The stability of the modified observer is proved by using Lyapunov function. The modified nonlinear observer is applied to estimate the states in stirred tank bioreactor: out-put substrate concentration, output biomass concentration and the specific growth rate of the process. The convergences of the modified observer and Busawon's observer are compared trough simulation results. As the results, the modified observer converges faster to its real value than the well-known Busawon's observer.

Structural Breaks, Manufacturing Revolutions, and Economic Catch-up: Empirical Validation of Historical Evidence from South Korea

  • SALAHUDDIN, Taseer;YULEK, Murat A.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2022
  • The main goal of this study is to look at how South Korea can catch up to the rest of the world through policy-driven structural change and manufacturing revolutions. To achieve the objective, this study used annual data on real exports and real GDP from the World Development Indicator WDI of South Korea for the period 1960 to 2019. The study's goal is to use econometrics to detect this policy-driven structural change trend. Multiple nonlinear Granger causality test was used to accomplish this. The findings revealed structural breaks and nonlinearities in the dynamic link between South Korea's real GDP and real exports. Furthermore, results also show evidence of multiple structural breaks in South Korean data. South Korea's economic catch-up was the result of a constant reevaluation of industrial policies, readjustment, and structural change to constantly explore and utilize comparative advantage, realizing economies of scale at the global level, and reallocating and redistribution of resources towards productive sectors with high value-added output, according to econometric analysis. If South Korea would have not done this structural change this miracle to escape the middle-income trap would not have been possible. These findings support the descriptive evidence of structural change in favor of manufacturing revolutions and value addition industry development in South Korea.

Implementation of a Switched PV Technique for Rooftop 2 kW Solar PV to Enhance Power during Unavoidable Partial Shading Conditions

  • Kumar, B. Praveen;Winston, D. Prince;Christabel, S. Cynthia;Venkatanarayanan, S.
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.1600-1610
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    • 2017
  • We propose maximum power extraction from a rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) array during partial shading conditions. Partial shading is unavoidable during power extraction from rooftop PV systems due to nearby tall buildings (construction of additional floors) and trees (growth of trees). Many reconfiguration techniques can be used to extract maximum power in partial shading conditions, but in several cases, the real maximum power output is not achieved. In this study, a new switched PV technique is proposed to enhance the power output. The proposed technique is simple to use and more cost effective than other reconfiguration techniques. Therefore, it is suitable for rooftop applications. The power output of the proposed technique is compared with that of existing techniques with similar shading patterns. Eight panels with ratings of 250 watts (2 kW) each are used for testing. MATLAB simulation and hardware verification are done for the proposed and existing techniques. The proposed technique is implemented on a $4{\times}2$ PV array, although it can be extended to a number of arrays.

Method for Measuring Absolute Position of a Yard Crane for Port Automation (항만 자동화를 위한 야드 크레인의 절대위치 측정 기법)

  • Chun T.W.;Kim K.M.;Lee H.H.;Kim H.G.;Nho E.C.
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2003.07a
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    • pp.439-445
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    • 2003
  • Since 1960s. container shipping volume has increased dramatically and continuous on a trend of rapid growth, and so the number of containers handled at the port increases. In order to improve yard crane operating efficiency, the precise position measurement of the yard crane is important. This paper describes the method to measure the absolute position of yard crane using the output pulse of an encoder and infrared sensors. The crane position is calculated by counting the output pulse of an incremental encoder, which is mounted on the wheel in the crane. By the way, the wheel slippage on rail may cause some errors in crane position information obtained from encoder pulses, and the errors in the crane position information are compensated with infrared sensors. The performance of proposed method is verified on experimental results with the simulator of yard crane, the size of which is about 1/10 with the real crane.

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Method for Measuring Absolute Position of a Yard Crane for Port Automation (항만 자동화를 위한 야드 크레인의 절대위치 측정 기법)

  • 전태원;유우종;이홍희;김흥근;노의철
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2004
  • Since 1960s, a container shipping volume has increased dramatically and continuous on a trend of rapid growth, and so the number of containers handled at the port increases. The position measurement of the yard crane is very important for improving the operating efficiency of the port. This paper describes the method to measure the absolute position of yard crane accurately and rapidly, using both the output pulse of an encoder and infrared sensors. The crane position is calculated by counting the output pulse of an incremental encoder, which is mounted on the wheel in the crane. By the way, the wheel slippage on rail may cause some errors in the crane position information obtained from encoder pulse, and the infrared sensor is used to compensate for errors in the crane position information. The performance of proposed method is verified on experimental results with the simulator of yard crane, the size of which is about 1/10 with the real crane.

On Study for the JIT System By CIM(Computer Integrated Mfg) (JIT실현을 위한 CIM구축 사례연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Hyung;Lee, Youn-Heui
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.425-432
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    • 2004
  • This study for Customer Satisfaction(Customer Focus) by Profit security' in the field Process improvement activity and man-power upgrade in the learning of organization activity or upgrading ability of each peoples. This thesis study on the focus of KAPEC which introduce Toyota system can apply to VM, 3jeong, Right Box and Right Position), 5S, JIT(Just In Time), KAlZEN, KANBAN System, CIM, ERP, DAS an output of Factory. For strategic changes to take place in industry 3 key important factors need to be included ; integration of tasks functions and process, decentralization of information and responsibility and finally simplification of products and product structures. These describes how CIM can be implemented using these factors. This study for (1)System Integration, (2) Help Logistic Problems, (3) Partly facilitated growth. (4) Improved production planning (5) Real-time management. (6) Fast reporting (7) Productivity. Quality. Delivery Up, Cost reduction and Autonomy management, FMS in the Plant etc.

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Changes in the Business Cycle of the Korean Economy: Evidence and Explanations (한국 경기변동의 특징 및 안정성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jaejoon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.47-85
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    • 2009
  • With a relatively simple quantitative method, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics related to business cycles represented by macroeconomic variables of Korea since 1970. This empirical analysis deals with roughly following three topics: How to identify cyclical component with respect to trend; with what characteristics and how the economic variables of each sector move with in the phases of business cycle, and; whether there are signs of a structural change in the phases of business cycle. Section 2 discusses how to identify trends and cycle components, the basis assumption for the analysis of business cycle. Like the Korean economy, where a relatively high growth rate has been maintained, it is appropriate to determine its economic recession based on the fall in the growth trend, not in the absolute level of real output. And, it is necessary to apply the concept of growth cycle against a traditional concept of business cycle. Accordingly the setting of growth trend is of preliminary importance in identifying cyclical fluctuations. The analysis of Korea's GDP data since 1970, the decomposition of trends and cycles through the Band-pass filter is found to appropriately identify the actual phases of busyness cycle. Section 3 analyzes what particular relationship various economic variables have with output fluctuations during the phases of economic cycle, using the corss-correlation coefficients and prediction contribution. Section 4 monitors the stability of the phases of Korea's business cycle and quantitatively verifies whether there is a structural break, and then reviews the characteristics of variations in each sector. And, stylized facts observed through these studies are summarized in the conclusion. The macroeconomic stability of Korea, in particular, is found to continue to improve since 1970, except for the financial crisis period. Not only that, it is found that its volatility of economic growth rate as well as inflation have been reduced gradually. Meanwhile, until recently since 2000, the volatility in domestic demand has remained stable, while that in exports and imports has been increased slightly. But, in an over all perspective, Korea's business cycle variation is on the decline due to shorter response period to shocks and the formation of complementary relationship among economic sectors.

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