• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.12
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• pp.295-303
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• 2021

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of oil prices on economic growth and exchange rate in Saudi Arabia during the period 1980-2020. For this purpose, the linear and nonlinear ARDL models are estimated. The linear ARDL model shows that the oil price and economic growth are cointegrated. Moreover, the two variables have a significant positive association in the long run. However, the oil price has no significant impact on the exchange rate. When estimating the nonlinear ARDL model, it has been shown that oil price is only cointegrated with economic growth but not with the exchange rate. The estimation of nonlinear effects using the nonlinear ARDL model shows that economic growth is affected by both positive and negative oil shocks in the long run. However, the impact of positive shocks is higher than those of negative shocks. Moreover, results show that the short-run effects of positive and negative oil shocks are not statistically significant. Regarding the exchange rate, our results show that the effects of positive and negative oil shocks are not statistically significant. Consequently, this study concludes that the oil price has an asymmetric effect on economic growth in Saudi Arabia, but not on the exchange rate.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.5-14
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• 2018

This study is motivated based on concern from some renowned scholars and central bankers whom have raised the issue of the sustainability of the International Monetary System (IMS). Using the panel data set of four major international currencies, USD, JPY, EUR and GBP from 1973 to 2013 with Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, to re-examine whether Triffin dilemma still exists through investigating the relationship between the reserve share, current account balance and real effective exchange rate. The evidence from the result indicates that Triffin dilemma exists only in the long run, and shows that in the long-run, current account balance is proportionate to the increased real effective exchange rate while varies inversely with the reserve shares. However, the estimation for the short-run is not significant to prove the existence of Triffin dilemma. In addition, we investigated the non-dollar panel sample and found that the international monetary system still suffers from Triffin dilemma even without the dollar. To overcome Triffin dilemma, immediate step such as having currency swap mechanism is recommended. In medium term, a multi-polar Monetary System is suggested, and in the longer time, a supranational currency will be used to replace all the currencies in the world.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.79-87
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• 2016

Purpose - Since 1990, the sudden stop in capital flows has caused the economic crisis. The purpose of this research is to suggest the policy measures to mitigate the risk of the sudden stop in capital flows. To this end, we examine the theoretical framework and analyze the case study for countries which are faced with the sudden stop. Also we examine the structural problems of the foreign exchange market in Korea and derive the policy implications to prevent the sudden stop. Research design, data, and methodology - The criteria of whether the sudden stop in capital flows occurs are based upon Calvo et al. (2008). In case the proxy variable for the balance of capital account decreases from the average by over twice standard deviation, we determine that the sudden stop occurs for that country. The sample period is from January 1990 to December 2008, as in Calvo (2014). The sample countries are 17 developed countries and 19 emerging market countries, which are different from those of the previous papers as Agosin and Huaita (2012), and Calvo (2014). When the exchange market pressure index(EMPI) is deviated from the average by over three times standard deviation, we determine that the foreign exchange market is unstable for that country. Results - We find that the characteristics of the sudden stop in capital flows are the bunching or contagion among countries, the rapid drop in real effective exchange rate, and the huge decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Many countries tried to increase foreign exchange reserves and regulate capital flows. Also the foreign exchange market in Korea are found to be the volatile exchange rate, the vulnerable external debt and careless management of the foreign exchange derivatives transaction risk. Conclusions - To lessen the risk in the sudden stop of capital flows, this research suggests the some useful policy measures. To enhance the foreign exchange and distribution market stability, we should improve the price mechanism of exchange rate, hold the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserves, prevent excessive inflows of foreign exchange and promote sound transactions of foreign exchange derivatives.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.163-172
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• 2019

The paper aims to investigate the impact of the gap between domestic and international gold price on money demand in Vietnam, an emerging economy in the Asian region. We use a quarterly database collected from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2016. The time-series database includes 52 observations. The money demand is represented by M2; Domestic income is the Gross domestic product at the constant prices of 1994; Inflation rate is calculated by the Customer Price Index from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The result confirms the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the money demand and the gap between domestic and international gold price as well as some variables including domestic income, inflation, and real exchange rate. The regression results also show that the gap between domestic and international gold price has a positive impact on money demand in the Vietnamese economy. Besides, the domestic income and international gold price have positive impacts on money demand while the inflation and real exchange rate are negatively related in the long run. This proves that the gap between the domestic and international gold price really has a positive impact on money demand in Vietnam during the study period.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.125-151
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• 1990

This paper reviews the economic liberalization experiences of the Southern Cone countries and draws some lessons from their experiences. The Southern Cone countries-Chile, Argentina and Uruguay-followed the different sequences in liberalization. Chile implemented the fiscal reform and the following comprehensive trade reform in the beginning of liberalization, but capital controls were maintained until 1979. Argentina and Uruguay placed more emphasis on the financial reform with the goods market reformed afterwards, but the fiscal sector was never reformed in Argentina. Since the serious inflation plagued the Southern Cone countries, they combined the economic liberalization scheme with the economic stabilization programmes which are based on the monetarist model. Although economic situations in the Southern Cone countries are quite different from those of Korea, we can learn many lessons from their experiences. First, the monetary and fiscal policies should consist of strict financial discipline to bring in the stable domestic inflation. Without the domestic stabilization, the financial liberalization could disturb the domestic economy as the capital inflows in particular generate a real exchange rate appreciation. Second, the monetary approach which is based on the full purchasing power parity and perfect capital mobility make stabilization as simple as a matter of the appropriate exchange rate policy and the proper rate of domestic credit creation. The unsuccessful experiences with monetarist stabilization in the Southern Cone countries suggest that the monetarist model cannot make real exchange rate and real interest rate stable with the trade and financial reform. Third, both the theory and practice have not yet provided a precise solution on the optimal sequencing and speed of the goods and financial market. Nonetheless, it seems desirable to keep the real exchange rate and the real interest rate stable by gradually opening up the current account and then the capital account.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.409-433
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• 2014

In this paper, I estimate long-run elasticities of US real GDP and real exchange rate between Korean Won and US Dollar on export of Korean goods to US and analyze changes in their trend by using VECM and rolling regression with a fixed window. For the purposes I use the year data from 1990 to 2013 which are selected from UNCTAD, Korea Trade Association(KTA), and Bank of Korea(BOK). The results are that the long-run elasticities of US real GDP vary from 2.849 to 2.938 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. The elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US Dollar vary from 0.962 to 0.967 for the same period depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. In case of the results through the OLS and the rolling regression, the long-run elasticities of US. real GDP are 3.015 for Basic Model, 2.949 for the modified Model 1, and 2.125 for the modified Model 2 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models and all of them are significant statistically. The average of long-run elasticities of real US GDP before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008. On the other hand, the long-run elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US $ are 0.347 for Basic Model, 0.566 for the modified Model 1, and -0.217 for the modified Model 2 for the same period and all of them are significant statistically except for the modified Model 2. The average of long-run elasticities of real exchange rate before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.3-16
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• 2009

This paper investigates the existence of uncovered interest rate parity between the Korea-USA as well as the Korea-Japan. We may ascertain the existence of uncovered interest rate parity by examining the empirical relationship between real exchange rates and interest rate differentials in the Korea-USA as well as in the Korea-Japan. The empirical relationship between real exchange rates and interest rate differentials in the Korean-USA and Korean-Japanese economies is investigated using cointegration tests. In the context of this study, cointegration technique is appropriate to examine the relationship between two(or more) nonstationary time series. Also, this method is useful to detect the possibility that the nonstationarity in both series can be explained by a single factor. The empirical results support the nonexistence of a long run equilibrium relation between real exchange rates and interest rate differentials. Also, the results show that the nonstationarity cannot be explained by a single factor.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.305-329
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• 2003

This work analyzes the influence of the dollar and yen currency on the rate of return of the individual firms and its symmetries based on the data from Jan. 5 1987 to Dec. 28, 2001. GARCH and autoregressive error models were used for on the daily data, due to the heteroscedascity and autoregression of the error terms, and as for the monthly data, this paper follows the autoregressive error models. Daily data fumed out to be a better explanatory variable in detecting exchange rate exposure, and EGARCH(1, 1) and GJR-GRARCH(1, 1) have higher competence in analyzing the daily data. Also, most of the exposed firms have been exposed in the negative region, and appreciation of exchange rate does not help enhancing the asset value of the domestic value. Analysis on the asymmetries let us conclude that high proportion of domestic firms face asymmetric exchange rate exposure, and that the pricing-to-market theory carries more conviction than the real option theory. Furthermore, monthly data are more precise in analysis of asymmetries.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.5-9
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper examines whether fiscal and monetary expansion would affect output in Australia. Research design, data, and methodology - An extended IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium in the goods market and the money market is applied. The real effective exchange rate and the real stock price are included in order to determine whether there may be any substitution or wealth effect. The sample consists of Annual data ranging from 1990 to 2018. The GARCH process is used in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Results - Expansionary fiscal policy reduces output; whereas, expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, real appreciation of the Australian dollar, a lower U.S. interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation would increase output. The finding that expansionary fiscal policy has a negative impact on real GDP suggests that the negative crowding-out effect on private spending dominates the positive impact. Conclusions - Fiscal prudence needs to be pursued. Real depreciation of the Australian dollar hurts output. Monetary tightening in the U.S. generates a negative effect on Australia's output. A healthy stock market is conducive to economic growth as higher stock prices tend to result in the wealth and other positive effects, increasing consumption and business spending.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.95-104
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• 2019

Along with the economic globalization and network generalization, this provides a good opportunity to the development of cross-border e-commerce trade. Based on this background, this paper sets ASEAN countries as an example to exploit the determinants of cross-border e-commerce trade including the export and the import, respectively. The panel data from the year of 1998 to 2016 will be employed to estimate the relationship between cross-border e-commerce trade and relevant variables under the dynamic ordinary least squares and the error correction model. The findings of this paper show that there is a long-run relationship between cross-border e-commerce trade and relevant variables. Generally speaking, the GDP(+) and real exchange rate(-export & +import) have an effect on cross-border e-commerce trade. However, the population (+) and the terms of trade (-) only have an effect on cross-border e-commerce import. The empirical evidences show that the GDP and the real exchange rate always affect the development of cross-border e-commerce trade. Therefore, all ASEAN countries should try their best to develop the economic growth and focus on the exchange rate regime so as to meet the need of cross-border e-commerce trade development.