• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rational Expectations

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A Study of Characteristics of Expectation in Inflation Dynamics (물가동학에서 기대변수의 특성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jaejoon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.95-120
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    • 2014
  • This paper attempts to demonstrate the critical role of expectation horizons in economic agents building their expectations for the future. It starts with the analysis of what constraints the economics-based assumption related to information efficiency could impose in the stochastic process, and then suggests a new concept, random revision of expectation, to refer to the case when the adjustment process of expected variables employs newly generated information only. According to the inflation dynamics formula drawn under this condition, the demand pressure measured by output gap is found to cause different impacts on inflation according to different expectation horizons. The empirical analysis of this model using the data on Korea reveals that a short expectation horizon causes coefficient estimates to become small and statistically less significant.

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Review : Effects of Corn Processing on Nutrient Utilization in Ruminants (반추가축에 있어서 옥수수 알곡의 가공이 영양소 이용에 미치는 영향에 관한 고찰)

  • Kim, W.Y.;Kim, H.W.;Lee, K.J.
    • Journal of Practical Agriculture & Fisheries Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.102-115
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    • 2001
  • Through out the last few decades, processing methods for ingredients of feed grains, such as grinding, flaking, extrusion, soaking, cracking etc., have been adopted in order to improve the nutrient digestibility in ruminants. Among feed grains, processing methods for whole corns have been the most frequently studied since corns are utilized as the thumb ingredients in formulating feeds. In these days, flaking of whole corns is the most incessantly used in formulation feeds, resulting in enhancing the performance of ruminants. Recently formulating non-forage feed for beef cattle, especially Holsteins, without processing whole corns is carrying out through various feed companies with expectations of whole corns acting like forages. However, it can not be ruled out that whole corns might possibly result in decreasing the productivity due to the depression of nutrient utilizations. Therefore, one must reevaluate the non-forage feeds as well as makes an effort to develop the rational and effective methodology in processing whole corns with the consideration of rumen eco-system.

A Study on the Internet Venture Company (인터넷 벤처기업 창업자의 행위특성에 관한 이론적 연구)

  • 이제홍
    • The Journal of Information Technology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.101-123
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    • 2001
  • The competitive environments of the 2001s appears to demand not only information technology(IT), but also practical use of internet network in all business areas. Accordingly, Chief Information Officers(CIO) are recognizing that these objectives can only be achieved through conscious mind and business mind in digital management. Thus, the main concern of CIO in an organization is development and management of human resource in digital management innovation. To make a successful organizational innovation CIO needs to have the conscious mind for change of human resource management. To study the determinants of the level of management in Korean venture firms, Top management characteristics, resource dependence and organizational power perspective, rational expectations, There is direct successful factors of Venture firm, it is they got th notion that for venture an appropriate manager which is as important as the technical leadership itself. also they employed the people who are very good at skilled management.

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A Critical Analysis of the Characteristics and Causes of the Changes in Marriage Rates and Recommendations for Family Policy (혼인율 특성, 변화요인 분석과 가족정책 제언)

  • Chung, Hyun-Sook
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.24 no.6 s.84
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    • pp.177-193
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    • 2006
  • This study analyzes marriage and fertility rates in Korea and makes recommendations for family policy. Based on the 'The Report of Marriage & Divorce Statistics in 2005' and data from the Korea Statistical Information System (KOSIS) of the National Statistics Organization, the trends, reasons for marriage rates changes, and future expectations were critically reviewed. In addition, the relationship between marriage and fertility rates was analyzed. The principle characteristics of marriage rates are as follows: 1) the M-shape of the longitudinal crude marriage rates; 2) the increased age of individuals entering their the first marriage; 3) the increase in remarriage rates; 4) the changes in the patterns of remarriage; 5) the increased in the age at which individuals remarry and; 6) the increase in marriage to non-Koreans. The marriage and fertility rates changes are a permanent normative shift because of 1) later marriage because of women's increased education and labor force participation 2) rational choices about birth control 3) reduced population because of the aging of baby boomers 4) structural changes in the marriage market and 5) egalitarian changes in women's attitudes toward marriage and family. The recommendations for future family policy were as follows: 1) the need for a realistic, long-term family policy because the current marriage patterns will continue; 2) the need to develop new statistics such as fertility rates that are based on marriage cohort or birth cohort because family behavior is a mixture of personal, social and political responses; 3) the need for impact analysis of current family policy about increasing fertility rates; 4) the need for a new family perspective that encompasses diverse marriage and family patterns; 5) the need to focus on men's role in families because of women's changing roles and family interaction patterns and; 6) the need for preventive family policies such as family life education.

The Transmission of Foreign Disturbances into a Small Country (해외경제교란이 소국경제에 미치는 영향)

  • Son, Il-Tae
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.3-29
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the transmission of domestic and foreign real and monetary disturbances into a small country with heavy imports of intermediate goods, and to analyze how the wage indexation in a small country affects the transmission of foreign disturbances into a small country. We consider the two countries, a small country and the rest of the world, two goods, and rational expectations world model under flexible exchange rate system with perfect capital mobility. We find out that foreign disturbances are transmitted into a small country through the price channel, the foreign output multiplier channel, and the nominal interest rate channel, and the foreign real balance channel. We have conducted an empirical investigation by using the Korean data for a small country and the U.S. data for a large country to see how real and monetary disturbances originating from the US affects the Korean economy with wage indexation.

Democratization and Politics of Trasformismo : Explaining the 1990 Three-Party Merger in South Korea

  • Kwon, Hyeokyong
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.2-12
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    • 2017
  • Research on democratic transitions has relatively ignored the question of why some countries experience a regressive form of political pacts, while others do not. This paper develops a simple game-theoretic model to explain the phenomenon of collusive pacts in the process of democratization. Trasformismo is a term that refers to a system of political exchange based on informal clientelistic politics. The existing studies of the politics of trasformismo have emphasized the timing of industrialization and the tradition of strong state as conditions of the politics of trasformismo. However, not every late industrializers and not every strong states experienced some variants of collusive political pacts in their trajectories of democratization. In this paper, I contend that the politics of trasformismo is rather a generalizable pattern of political elites' behavior under particular circumstances. By developing a simple game theoretic model, this paper suggests the conditions under which political actors are likely to collude to a regressive form of political pacts. The model shows that the likelihood of collusion to a regressive form of political pacts is a function of a set of parameters. First, a higher level of incumbency advantage in electoral competition is likely to be associated with a higher probability of collusive political pacts. Second, a higher degree of the monopoly of political representation of political parties without a close link with a variety of societal forces is likely to induce collusive behavior among politicians. Third, the ruling party leader's expectations about the likelihood of a safe extrication are related to collusive political pacts. This paper then engages in a case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea. The 1990 Korean case is interesting in that the ruling party created a new party after having merged with two opposition parties. This case can be considered a result of political maneuver in a context of democratization. The case study suggests the empirical relevance of the game-theoretic model. As the game of trasformismo and the case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea have shown, the collusive political pact was neither determined by a certain stage of economic development nor by a particular cultural systems. Rather, it was a product of the art of trasformismo based on party leaders' rational calculations of the expected likelihood of taking governing power.

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The Impacts of Need for Cognitive Closure, Psychological Wellbeing, and Social Factors on Impulse Purchasing (인지폐합수요(认知闭合需要), 심리건강화사회인소대충동구매적영향(心理健康和社会因素对冲动购买的影响))

  • Lee, Myong-Han;Schellhase, Ralf;Koo, Dong-Mo;Lee, Mi-Jeong
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.44-56
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    • 2009
  • Impulse purchasing is defined as an immediate purchase with no pre-shopping intentions. Previous studies of impulse buying have focused primarily on factors linked to marketing mix variables, situational factors, and consumer demographics and traits. In previous studies, marketing mix variables such as product category, product type, and atmospheric factors including advertising, coupons, sales events, promotional stimuli at the point of sale, and media format have been used to evaluate product information. Some authors have also focused on situational factors surrounding the consumer. Factors such as the availability of credit card usage, time available, transportability of the products, and the presence and number of shopping companions were found to have a positive impact on impulse buying and/or impulse tendency. Research has also been conducted to evaluate the effects of individual characteristics such as the age, gender, and educational level of the consumer, as well as perceived crowding, stimulation, and the need for touch, on impulse purchasing. In summary, previous studies have found that all products can be purchased impulsively (Vohs and Faber, 2007), that situational factors affect and/or at least facilitate impulse purchasing behavior, and that various individual traits are closely linked to impulse buying. The recent introduction of new distribution channels such as home shopping channels, discount stores, and Internet stores that are open 24 hours a day increases the probability of impulse purchasing. However, previous literature has focused predominantly on situational and marketing variables and thus studies that consider critical consumer characteristics are still lacking. To fill this gap in the literature, the present study builds on this third tradition of research and focuses on individual trait variables, which have rarely been studied. More specifically, the current study investigates whether impulse buying tendency has a positive impact on impulse buying behavior, and evaluates how consumer characteristics such as the need for cognitive closure (NFCC), psychological wellbeing, and susceptibility to interpersonal influences affect the tendency of consumers towards impulse buying. The survey results reveal that while consumer affective impulsivity has a strong positive impact on impulse buying behavior, cognitive impulsivity has no impact on impulse buying behavior. Furthermore, affective impulse buying tendency is driven by sub-components of NFCC such as decisiveness and discomfort with ambiguity, psychological wellbeing constructs such as environmental control and purpose in life, and by normative and informational influences. In addition, cognitive impulse tendency is driven by sub-components of NFCC such as decisiveness, discomfort with ambiguity, and close-mindedness, and the psychological wellbeing constructs of environmental control, as well as normative and informational influences. The present study has significant theoretical implications. First, affective impulsivity has a strong impact on impulse purchase behavior. Previous studies based on affectivity and flow theories proposed that low to moderate levels of impulsivity are driven by reduced self-control or a failure of self-regulatory mechanisms. The present study confirms the above proposition. Second, the present study also contributes to the literature by confirming that impulse buying tendency can be viewed as a two-dimensional concept with both affective and cognitive dimensions, and illustrates that impulse purchase behavior is explained mainly by affective impulsivity, not by cognitive impulsivity. Third, the current study accommodates new constructs such as psychological wellbeing and NFCC as potential influencing factors in the research model, thereby contributing to the existing literature. Fourth, by incorporating multi-dimensional concepts such as psychological wellbeing and NFCC, more diverse aspects of consumer information processing can be evaluated. Fifth, the current study also extends the existing literature by confirming the two competing routes of normative and informational influences. Normative influence occurs when individuals conform to the expectations of others or to enhance his/her self-image. Whereas informational influence occurs when individuals search for information from knowledgeable others or making inferences based upon observations of the behavior of others. The present study shows that these two competing routes of social influence can be attributed to different sources of influence power. The current study also has many practical implications. First, it suggests that people with affective impulsivity may be primary targets to whom companies should pay closer attention. Cultivating a more amenable and mood-elevating shopping environment will appeal to this segment. Second, the present results demonstrate that NFCC is closely related to the cognitive dimension of impulsivity. These people are driven by careless thoughts, not by feelings or excitement. Rational advertising at the point of purchase will attract these customers. Third, people susceptible to normative influences are another potential target market. Retailers and manufacturers could appeal to this segment by advertising their products and/or services as products that can be used to identify with or conform to the expectations of others in the aspiration group. However, retailers should avoid targeting people susceptible to informational influences as a segment market. These people are engaged in an extensive information search relevant to their purchase, and therefore more elaborate, long-term rational advertising messages, which can be internalized into these consumers' thought processes, will appeal to this segment. The current findings should be interpreted with caution for several reasons. The study used a small convenience sample, and only investigated behavior in two dimensions. Accordingly, future studies should incorporate a sample with more diverse characteristics and measure different aspects of behavior. Future studies should also investigate personality traits closely related to affectivity theories. Trait variables such as sensory curiosity, interpersonal curiosity, and atmospheric responsiveness are interesting areas for future investigation.

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A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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Intelligent Brand Positioning Visualization System Based on Web Search Traffic Information : Focusing on Tablet PC (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 지능형 브랜드 포지셔닝 시스템 : 태블릿 PC 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.93-111
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    • 2013
  • As Internet and information technology (IT) continues to develop and evolve, the issue of big data has emerged at the foreground of scholarly and industrial attention. Big data is generally defined as data that exceed the range that can be collected, stored, managed and analyzed by existing conventional information systems and it also refers to the new technologies designed to effectively extract values from such data. With the widespread dissemination of IT systems, continual efforts have been made in various fields of industry such as R&D, manufacturing, and finance to collect and analyze immense quantities of data in order to extract meaningful information and to use this information to solve various problems. Since IT has converged with various industries in many aspects, digital data are now being generated at a remarkably accelerating rate while developments in state-of-the-art technology have led to continual enhancements in system performance. The types of big data that are currently receiving the most attention include information available within companies, such as information on consumer characteristics, information on purchase records, logistics information and log information indicating the usage of products and services by consumers, as well as information accumulated outside companies, such as information on the web search traffic of online users, social network information, and patent information. Among these various types of big data, web searches performed by online users constitute one of the most effective and important sources of information for marketing purposes because consumers search for information on the internet in order to make efficient and rational choices. Recently, Google has provided public access to its information on the web search traffic of online users through a service named Google Trends. Research that uses this web search traffic information to analyze the information search behavior of online users is now receiving much attention in academia and in fields of industry. Studies using web search traffic information can be broadly classified into two fields. The first field consists of empirical demonstrations that show how web search information can be used to forecast social phenomena, the purchasing power of consumers, the outcomes of political elections, etc. The other field focuses on using web search traffic information to observe consumer behavior, identifying the attributes of a product that consumers regard as important or tracking changes on consumers' expectations, for example, but relatively less research has been completed in this field. In particular, to the extent of our knowledge, hardly any studies related to brands have yet attempted to use web search traffic information to analyze the factors that influence consumers' purchasing activities. This study aims to demonstrate that consumers' web search traffic information can be used to derive the relations among brands and the relations between an individual brand and product attributes. When consumers input their search words on the web, they may use a single keyword for the search, but they also often input multiple keywords to seek related information (this is referred to as simultaneous searching). A consumer performs a simultaneous search either to simultaneously compare two product brands to obtain information on their similarities and differences, or to acquire more in-depth information about a specific attribute in a specific brand. Web search traffic information shows that the quantity of simultaneous searches using certain keywords increases when the relation is closer in the consumer's mind and it will be possible to derive the relations between each of the keywords by collecting this relational data and subjecting it to network analysis. Accordingly, this study proposes a method of analyzing how brands are positioned by consumers and what relationships exist between product attributes and an individual brand, using simultaneous search traffic information. It also presents case studies demonstrating the actual application of this method, with a focus on tablets, belonging to innovative product groups.