• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.36 no.6_3
• /
• pp.1711-1720
• /
• 2020

Particulate matter (PM) that has been artificially generated during the recent of rapid industrialization and urbanization moves and disperses according to weather conditions, and adversely affects the human skin and respiratory systems. The purpose of this study is to predict the PM10 concentration in Seoul using meteorological factors as input dataset for multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) models, and compared and evaluated the performance of the models. First, the PM10 concentration data obtained at 39 air quality monitoring sites (AQMS) in Seoul were divided into training and validation dataset (8:2 ratio). The nine meteorological factors (mean, maximum, and minimum temperature, precipitation, average and maximum wind speed, wind direction, yellow dust, and relative humidity), obtained by the automatic weather system (AWS), were composed to input dataset of models. The coefficients of determination (R2) between the observed PM10 concentration and that predicted by the MLR, SVM, and RF models was 0.260, 0.772, and 0.793, respectively, and the RF model best predicted the PM10 concentration. Among the AQMS used for model validation, Gwanak-gu and Gangnam-daero AQMS are relatively close to AWS, and the SVM and RF models were highly accurate according to the model validations. The Jongno-gu AQMS is relatively far from the AWS, but since PM10 concentration for the two adjacent AQMS were used for model training, both models presented high accuracy. By contrast, Yongsan-gu AQMS was relatively far from AQMS and AWS, both models performed poorly.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
• /
• v.39 no.6
• /
• pp.351-361
• /
• 2021

The seriousness of fire is rising because fire causes enormous damage to property and human life. Therefore, this study aims to predict various risk factors affecting fire by fire type. The predictive analysis of fire factors was carried out targeting Gyeonggi-do, which has the highest number of fires in the country. For the analysis, using machine learning methods SVM (Support Vector Machine), RF (Random Forest), GBRT (Gradient Boosted Regression Tree) the accuracy of each model was presented with a high fit model through MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), and based on this, predictive analysis of fire factors in Gyeonggi-do was conducted. In addition, using machine learning methods such as SVM (Support Vector Machine), RF (Random Forest), and GBRT (Gradient Boosted Regression Tree), the accuracy of each model was presented with a high-fit model through MAE and RMSE. Predictive analysis of occurrence factors was achieved. Based on this, as a result of comparative analysis of three machine learning methods, the RF method showed a MAE = 1.765 and RMSE = 1.876, as well as the MAE and RMSE verification and test data were very similar with a difference between MAE = 0.046 and RMSE = 0.04 showing the best predictive results. The results of this study are expected to be used as useful data for fire safety management allowing decision makers to identify the sequence of dangers related to the factors affecting the occurrence of fire.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.30 no.1
• /
• pp.41-55
• /
• 2017

This study predicts the average scores of top 150 PGA golf players on 132 PGA Tour tournaments (2013-2015) using data mining techniques and statistical analysis. This study also aims to predict the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs. Linear and nonlinear regression methods were used to predict average scores. Stepwise regression, all best subset, LASSO, ridge regression and principal component regression were used for the linear regression method. Tree, bagging, gradient boosting, neural network, random forests and KNN were used for nonlinear regression method. We found that the average score increases as fairway firmness or green height or average maximum wind speed increases. We also found that the average score decreases as the number of one-putts or scrambling variable or longest driving distance increases. All 11 different models have low prediction error when predicting the average scores of PGA Tournaments in 2015 which is not included in the training set. However, the performances of Bagging and Random Forest models are the best among all models and these two models have the highest prediction accuracy when predicting the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.27-33
• /
• 2021

The whole world now is dealing with Coronavirus, and it has turned to be one of the most widespread and long-lived pandemics of our times. Reports reveal that the infectious disease has taken toll of the almost 80% of the world's population. Amidst a lot of research going on with regards to the prediction on growth and transmission through Symptomatic carriers of the virus, it can't be ignored that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers also play a crucial role in spreading the reach of the virus. Classification Algorithm has been widely used to classify different types of COVID-19 carriers ranging from simple feature-based classification to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). This research paper aims to present a novel technique using a Random Forest Machine learning algorithm with hyper-parameter tuning to classify different types COVID-19-carriers such that these carriers can be accurately characterized and hence dealt timely to contain the spread of the virus. The main idea for selecting Random Forest is that it works on the powerful concept of "the wisdom of crowd" which produces ensemble prediction. The results are quite convincing and the model records an accuracy score of 99.72 %. The results have been compared with the same dataset being subjected to K-Nearest Neighbour, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), and Decision Tree algorithms where the accuracy score has been recorded as 78.58%, 70.11%, 70.385,99% respectively, thus establishing the concreteness and suitability of our approach.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
• /
• v.28 no.5
• /
• pp.109-126
• /
• 2023

Early detection of forest fires is essential in preventing large-scale forest fires. Predicting forest fires serves as a vital early detection method, leading to various related studies. However, many previous studies focused solely on climate and geographic factors, overlooking human factors, which significantly contribute to forest fires. This study aims to develop forest fire prediction models that take into account human, weather and geographical factors. This study conducted a comparative analysis of four machine learning models alongside the logistic regression model, using forest fire data from Gangwon-do spanning 2003 to 2020. The results indicate that XG Boost models performed the best (AUC=0.925), closely followed by Random Forest (AUC=0.920), both of which are machine learning techniques. Lastly, the study analyzed the relative importance of various factors through permutation feature importance analysis to derive operational insights. While meteorological factors showed a greater impact compared to human factors, various human factors were also found to be significant.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.225-232
• /
• 2023

Owing to advancements in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and artificial-intelligence technologies, various machine-learning models can be employed to simulate and predict the number of traffic accidents under different weather conditions. Furthermore, we can analyze the relationship between weather and traffic accidents, allowing us to assess whether the current weather conditions are suitable for travel, which can significantly reduce the risk of traffic accidents. In this study, we analyzed 30000 traffic flow data points collected by traffic cameras at nearby intersections in Washington, D.C., USA from October 2012 to May 2017, using Pearson's heat map. We then predicted, analyzed, and compared the performance of the correlation between continuous features by applying several machine-learning algorithms commonly used in ITS, including random forest, decision tree, gradient-boosting regression, and support vector regression. The experimental results indicated that the gradient-boosting regression machine-learning model had the best performance.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.44 no.4
• /
• pp.12-22
• /
• 2021

This article suggests the machine learning model, i.e., classifier, for predicting the production quality of free-machining 303-series stainless steel(STS303) small rolling wire rods according to the operating condition of the manufacturing process. For the development of the classifier, manufacturing data for 37 operating variables were collected from the manufacturing execution system(MES) of Company S, and the 12 types of derived variables were generated based on literature review and interviews with field experts. This research was performed with data preprocessing, exploratory data analysis, feature selection, machine learning modeling, and the evaluation of alternative models. In the preprocessing stage, missing values and outliers are removed, and oversampling using SMOTE(Synthetic oversampling technique) to resolve data imbalance. Features are selected by variable importance of LASSO(Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression, extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost), and random forest models. Finally, logistic regression, support vector machine(SVM), random forest, and XGBoost are developed as a classifier to predict the adequate or defective products with new operating conditions. The optimal hyper-parameters for each model are investigated by the grid search and random search methods based on k-fold cross-validation. As a result of the experiment, XGBoost showed relatively high predictive performance compared to other models with an accuracy of 0.9929, specificity of 0.9372, F₁-score of 0.9963, and logarithmic loss of 0.0209. The classifier developed in this study is expected to improve productivity by enabling effective management of the manufacturing process for the STS303 small rolling wire rods.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• v.50 no.4
• /
• pp.443-458
• /
• 2024

The construction industry, one of the biggest producers of greenhouse emissions, is under a lot of pressure as a result of growing worries about how climate change may affect local communities. Geopolymer concrete (GPC) has emerged as a feasible choice for construction materials as a result of the environmental issues connected to the manufacture of cement. The findings of this study contribute to the development of machine learning methods for estimating the properties of eco-friendly concrete, which might be used in lieu of traditional concrete to reduce CO₂ emissions in the building industry. In the present work, the compressive strength (f_c) of GPC is calculated using random forests regression (RFR) methodology where natural zeolite (NZ) and silica fume (SF) replace ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBFS). From the literature, a thorough set of experimental experiments on GPC samples were compiled, totaling 254 data rows. The considered RFR integrated with artificial hummingbird optimization (AHA), black widow optimization algorithm (BWOA), and chimp optimization algorithm (ChOA), abbreviated as ARFR, BRFR, and CRFR. The outcomes obtained for RFR models demonstrated satisfactory performance across all evaluation metrics in the prediction procedure. For R² metric, the CRFR model gained 0.9988 and 0.9981 in the train and test data set higher than those for BRFR (0.9982 and 0.9969), followed by ARFR (0.9971 and 0.9956). Some other error and distribution metrics depicted a roughly 50% improvement for CRFR respect to ARFR.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.661-690
• /
• 2022

Adolescent delinquency is a substantial social problem that occurs in both offline and online domains. The current study utilized random forest algorithms to identify predictors of adolescents' online and offline delinquency. Further, we explored the applicability of classic delinquency theories (social learning, strain, social control, routine activities, and labeling theory). We used the first-grade and fourth-grade elementary school panels as well as the first-grade middle school panel (N=4,137) among the sixth wave of the nationally-representative Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey 2010 for analysis. Random forest algorithms were used instead of the conventional regression analysis to improve the predictive performance of the model and possibly consider many predictors in the model. Random forest algorithm results showed that classic delinquency theories designed to explain offline delinquency were also applicable to online delinquency. Specifically, salient predictors of online delinquency were closely related to individual factors(routine activities and labeling theory). Social factors(social control and social learning theory) were particularly important for understanding offline delinquency. General strain theory was the commonly important theoretical framework that predicted both offline and online delinquency. Findings may provide evidence for more tailored prevention and intervention strategies against offline and online adolescent delinquency.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
• /
• v.9 no.5
• /
• pp.153-160
• /
• 2020

Energy Consumption Predictions for Industries has a prominent role to play in the energy management and control system as dynamic and seasonal changes are occurring in energy demand and supply. This paper introduces and explores the steel industry's predictive models of energy consumption. The data used includes lagging and leading reactive power lagging and leading current variable, emission of carbon dioxide (tCO2) and load type. Four statistical models are trained and tested in the test set: (a) Linear Regression (LR), (b) Radial Kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM RBF), (c) Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and (d) Random Forest (RF). Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used for calculating regression model predictive performance. When using all the predictors, the best model RF can provide RMSE value 7.33 in the test set.