• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.95-102
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• 1994

The series of the papers consist of three parts to describe the development, calibration, and applications of the flood forecasting models for the Youngsan Estuarine Dam located at the mouth of the Youngsan river. And this paper discusses the hydrologic model for inflow simulation at Naju station, which constitutes 64 percent of the drainage basin of 3521 .6km$^2$ in area. A simplified TANK model was formulated to simulate hourly runoff from rainfall And the model parameters were optirnized using historical storm data, and validated with the records. The results of this paper were summarized as follows. 1. The simplified TANK model was formulated to conceptualize the hourly rainfall-run-off relationships at a watershed with four tanks in series having five runoff outlets. The runoff from each outlet was assumed to be proportional to the storage exceeding a threshold value. And each tank was linked with a drainage hole from the upper one. 2. Fifteen storm events from four year records from 1984 to 1987 were selected for this study. They varied from 81 to 289rn'm The watershed averaged, hourly rainfall data were determined from those at fifteen raingaging stations using a Thiessen method. Some missing and unrealistic records at a few stations were estimated or replaced with the values determined using a reciprocal distance square method from abjacent ones. 3. An univariate scheme was adopted to calibrate the model parameters using historical records. Some of the calibrated parameters were statistically related to antecedent precipitation. And the model simulated the streamflow close to the observed, with the mean coefficient of determination of 0.94 for all storm events. 4. The simulated streamflow were in good agreement with the historical records for ungaged condition simulation runs. The mean coefficient of determination for the runs was 0.93, nearly the same as calibration runs. This may indicates that the model performs very well in flood forecasting situations for the watershed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.11
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• pp.985-996
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• 2014

When designing hydraulic structures, the chosen method of time distribution in a hyetograph is highly significant. There are several methods used for measuring time distribution. In the case of Huff (1967), which is widely used in Korea, the Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT, 2000), and the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MOLTMA, 2011) have long been increasing their use of this method. The MOLTMA uses the conventional Huff method's measurement of 1 inch (25.4 mm) as the threshold. Many researchers have pointed out that this method often leads to underestimation, because of the excessive flatness. Therefore, for this study, a new time distribution method was developed to analyze only extreme rainfall events-those over the standard of severe rainstorms (that is, more than 30 mm per hour or 80 mm per day)-and that was verified using a rainfall-runoff model and applying it to a real basin.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.193-200
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• 2020

Hydrological drought is directly associated with lack of available water in rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater. It is important to analyze hydrological drought for efficient water resource management because most of rainfall is concentrated in wet seasons and water supply is highly dependent on dams and reservoirs in South Korea. Generally, a threshold level method is useful for defining hydrological droughts. However, this method causes interdependent problems between drought events which result in skewed results in further statistical analysis. Therefore, it is necessary to determine a proper threshold level to represent regional drought characteristics. In this study, applying 50~99 percentiles of daily flow-duration curve, hydrological drought events were extracted, and independence tests were conducted for 12 watersheds. The Poisson independence test showed that 87~99 percentiles were available for most stations except for Yeoju and Pyeongtaek. The generalized Pareto independence test showed that 80~90 percentiles were the most common. Mean excess plot showed that 80 ~ 90 percentiles were the most common. Therefore, the common ranges of the three independent tests were determined for each station and proper threshold levels were recommended for large river basins; 70~76 percentiles for the Han River basin, 87~91 percentiles for the Nakdong River basin, 86~98 percentiles for the Geum River basin, and 85~87 percentiles for the Youngsan and Seomjin River basin.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.173-185
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• 2019

The Korean Peninsula is considered as one of the most typhoon related disaster prone areas. In particular, the potential risk of flooding in coastal areas would be greater when storm surge and heavy rainfall occurred at the same time. In this context, understanding the mechanism of the interactions between them and estimating the risk associated with the concurrent occurrence are of particular interests especially in low-lying coastal areas. In this study, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto (Poisson-GP) distribution based storm surge frequency analysis model to combine the occurrence of the exceedance of a threshold, that is the peaks over threshold (POT), within a Bayesian framework. The storm surge frequency analysis technique developed through this study might contribute to the improvement of disaster prevention technology related to storm surge in the coastal area.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.117-133
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• 2014

In this study, we analysed impacts of the recent increasing trend of exceedance rainfall thresholds for separation of data set and different research periods using Quantile Regression (QR) approach. And also we performed significant test for time series data using linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and Sen test over the Korean major 8-city. Spring and summer precipitation was tend to significant increase, fall and winter precipitation was tend to decrease, and heavy rainy days in last 30 years have increased from 3.1 to 15 percent average. In addition, according to the annual ranking of rainfall occurs Top $10^{th}$ percentile of precipitation for 3IQR (inter quartile range) of the increasing trend, most of the precipitation at the point of increasing trend was confirmed. Quantile 90% percentile of the average rainfall 43.5mm, the increasing trend 0.1412mm/yr, Quantile 99% percentile of the average rainfall 68.0mm, the increasing trend in the 0.1314mm/yr were analyzed. The results can be used to analyze the recent increasing trend for the annual maximum value series information and the threshold extreme hydrologic information. And also can be used as a basis data for hydraulic structures design on reflect recent changes in climate characteristics.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.270-283
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• 2024

Purpose: Considering the rising frequency of earthquakes in Korea, it is crucial to revise the rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering following earthquake events. This study was conducted to provide scientific justification and preliminary data for adjusting rainfall thresholds for landslide early warnings after earthquakes through soil physical experiments. Method: The study analyzed the change in soil shear strength by direct shear tests on disturbed and undisturbed samples collected from cut slopes. Also, The study analyzed the soil strength parameters of remolded soil samples subjected to drying and wetting conditions, focusing on the relationship between the degree of saturation after submergence and the strength parameters. Result: Compaction water content variation in direct shear tests showed that higher water content and saturation in disturbed samples led to a significant decrease in cohesion (over 50%) and a reduction in shear resistance angle (1~2°). Additionally, during the ring shear tests, the shear strength was observed to gradually decrease once water was supplied to the shear plane. The maximum shear strength decreased by approximately 65-75%, while the residual shear strength decreased by approximately 53-60%. Conclusion: Seismic activity amplifies landslide risk during subsequent rainfall, necessitating proactive mitigation strategies in earthquake-prone areas. This research is anticipated to provide scientific justification and preliminary data for reducing the rainfall threshold for landslide initiation in earthquake-susceptible regions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.S1
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• pp.101-110
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• 2000

This paper introduces the equivalent frequency response method(EFRM) into runoff analysis. This EFRM originally had been developed to analyze dynamic behavior of nonlinear elements such as threshold and saturation in control engineering. Many runoff models are described by nonlinear ordinary of partial differential equations This paper presents that these nonlinear differential equations can be converted into semi-linear ones based on EFRM. The word of "a semi-linear equation" means that the coefficients of derived equations depend on average rainfall.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1541-1545
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• 2010

최근 이상기후 및 기후변화로 인하여 전 세계의 피해가 증가하고 있다. 하지만 그 피해를 최소화하기 위하여 과도한 비용을 지출 할 수 없기 때문에 적정 설계 빈도에 맞는 치수 정책을 수립한다. 본 연구는 적정 설계 빈도의 설계를 위해 자료기간에 따른 확률강우량의 변화 특성에 대해 분석 하였고, 빈도별 확률강우량을 초과하는 강우사상의 시간적 특성을 분석하기 위해 초과횟수를 산정하여 경향성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석 대상 자료는 기상청에서 관할하고 있는 관측소 중에서 비교적 장기간의 자료를 보유하고 있는 16개 지점을 선정하여 분석하였다. 선정된 지점을 관측년수를 3가지로 나누어 구분하여 빈도해석을 실시하였고, 그 결과 많은 지역에서 확률강우량이 증가하는 것을 확인 할 수 있었다. 또한 빈도해석을 통해 산정된 확률강우량으로 기준을 정하였고, 그 기준을 초과하는 초과횟수를 산정하여 경향성 분석을 수행하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2000.05a
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• pp.1-2
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• 2000

This paper introduces the equivalent frequency response method (EFRM) into runoff analysis. This EFRM originally had been developed to analyze dynamic behavior of nonlinear elements such as threshold and saturation in control engineering. Many runoff models are described by nonlinear ordinary or partial differential equations. This paper presents that these nonlinear differential equations can be converted into semi-linear ones based on EFRM. The word of “a semi-linear equation” means that the coefficients of derived equations depend on average rainfall

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.387-393
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• 2018

Considering the effect of climate change, a quantitative analysis of extreme drought is needed to reduce the damage from extreme droughts. Therefore, in this study, a quantitative risk analysis of extreme drought was conducted. The threshold level method was applied to define a drought event using Cheugugi rainfall data in past, gauged rainfall data in present, and climate change scenario rainfall data in future. A bivariate drought frequency analysis was performed using the copula function to simultaneously consider two major drought characteristics such as duration and severity. Based on the bivariate drought frequency curves, the risks for the past, present and future were calculated and the risks for future extreme drought were analyzed comparing with the past and present. As a result, the mean drought duration of the future was shorter than that of past and present, however, the mean drought severity was much larger. Therefore short term and severe droughts were expected to occur in the future. In addition, the analysis of the maximum drought risk indicated that the future maximum drought risk was 1.39~1.94 times and 1.33~1.81 times higher than the past and present. Finally, the risk of extreme drought over past and present maximum drought in the future was very high, ranging from 0.989 to 1.0, and the occurrence probability of extreme drought was high in the future.