• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall Error

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Analysis of Spatial Precipitation Field Using Downscaling on the Korean Peninsula (상세화 기법을 통한 한반도 공간 강우장 분석)

  • Cho, Herin;Hwang, Seokhwan;Cho, Yongsik;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.11
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    • pp.1129-1140
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    • 2013
  • Precipitation is one of the important factors in the hydrological cycle. It needs to understand accurate of spatial precipitation field because it has large spatio-temporal variability. Precipitation data obtained through the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 product is inaccurate because it has 25 km space scale. Downscaling of TRMM 3B43 product can increase the accuracy of spatial precipitation field from 25 km to 1 km scale. The relationship between precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) (1 km space scale) which is obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) sensor loaded in Terra satellite is variable at different scales. Therefore regression equations were established and these equations apply to downscaling. Two renormalization strategies, Geographical Difference Analysis (GDA) and Geographical Ratio Analysis (GRA) are implemented for correcting the differences between remote sensing-derived and rain gauge data. As for considering the GDA method results, biases, the root mean-squared error (RMSE), MAE and Index of agreement (IOA) is equal to 4.26 mm, 172.16 mm, 141.95 mm, 0.64 in 2009 and 17.21 mm, 253.43 mm, 310.56 mm, 0.62 in 2011. In this study, we can see the 1km spatial precipitation field map over Korea. It will be possible to get more accurate spatial analysis of the precipitation field through using the additional rain gauges or radar data.

Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics in Gokgyochun Basin Using a Runoff Model (유출모형을 이용한 곡교천 유역의 강우-유출 특성 분석)

  • Hwan, Byungl-Ki;Cho, Yong-Soo;Yang, Seung-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.404-411
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the HEC-HMS was applied to determine rainfall-runoff processes for the Gokgyuchun basin. Several sub-basins have large-scale reservoirs for agricultural needs and they store large amounts of initial runoff. Three infiltration methods were implemented to reflect the effect of initial loss by reservoirs: 'SCS-CN'(Scheme I), 'SCS-CN' with simple surface method(Scheme II), and 'Initial and Constant rate'(Scheme III). Modeling processes include incorporating three different methods for loss due to infiltration, Clark's UH model for transformation, exponential recession model for baseflow, and Muskingum model for channel routing. The parameters were calibrated using an optimization technique with trial and error method. Performance measures, such as NSE, RAR, and PBIAS, were adopted to aid in the calibration processes. The model performance for those methods was evaluated at Gangcheong station, which is the outlet of study site. Good accuracy in predicting runoff volume and peak flow, and peak time was obtained using the Scheme II and III, considering the initial loss, whereas Scheme I showed low reliability for storms. Scheme III did not show good matches between observed and simulated values for storms with multi peaks. Conclusively, Scheme II provided better results for both single and multi-peak storms. The results of this study can provide a useful tool for decision makers to determine master plans for regional flood control management.

Major Factors Influencing Landslide Occurrence along a Forest Road Determined Using Structural Equation Model Analysis and Logistic Regression Analysis (구조방정식과 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 임도비탈면 산사태의 주요 영향인자 선정)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Sin;Moon, Seong-Woo;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.585-596
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    • 2022
  • This study determined major factors influencing landslide occurrence along a forest road near Sangsan village, Sancheok-myeon, Chungju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea. Within a 2 km radius of the study area, landslides occur intensively during periods of heavy rainfall (August 2020). This makes study of the area advantageous, as it allows examination of the influence of only geological and tomographic factors while excluding the effects of rainfall and vegetation. Data for 82 locations (37 experiencing landslides and 45 not) were obtained from geological surveys, laboratory tests, and geo-spatial analysis. After some data preprocessing (e.g., error filtering, minimum-maximum normalization, and multicollinearity), structural equation model (SEM) and logistic regression (LR) analyses were conducted. These showed the regolith thickness, porosity, and saturated unit weight to be the factors most influential of landslide risk in the study area. The sums of the influence magnitudes of these factors are 71% in SEM and 83% in LR.

Regional Frequency Analysis by Rainfalls using GEV Distribution (GEV 분포에 의한 강우자료의 지역빈도분석)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Lee, Hyeon-Gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.403-407
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    • 2006
  • This research aims to reduce severe damages to human beings and properties from floods that ravage Korea every year, by estimating right time to hydraulic structures based on the characteristics of variations in flood flows. To establish this permanent means for the flood mitigation, this research analyse design floods of various dams and hydraulic structures in connection with time of occurrence of the weather abnormalities in Korea. This research was derived the optimal regionalization of the precipitation data which can be classified by the climatologically and geographically homogeneous regions in Korea. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smimov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the GEV distribution among applied distributions. The regional and at-site analyses using L-moment for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Error tests were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

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Correction of Radar Reflectivity over Beam Blocking Area by Accumulated Radar Reflectivity (레이더 반사도 누적 방법을 이용한 지형에 의한 부분차폐영역의 레이더 반사도 보정)

  • Park, Sung-Hwan;Jung, Sung-Hwa;Lee, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Kyeong-Eak
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.8
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    • pp.607-617
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    • 2009
  • Radar beam blocking which is partially or entirely interrupted by obstacles like a mountain causes underestimation of the rainfall. In this paper, partially blocked radar reflectivity is retrieved using the ARM(Accumulated Reflectivity Map). ARM is made by accumulation of the radar reflectivity and very useful product to analyze the beam blockage. The blockage correcting map could be obtained by assuming the spatially uniform reflectivity field in the ARM. This method is applied to the cases of typhoon and Changma, and we obtain the MFE(Mean Fractional Error) from two radar data, the one is objective radar data which is affected by blockage and the other is comparative radar data which is not affected by blockage. Before blocking correction, MFE is 20-35%. However, after correction, MFE decreases to 7-10%.

Parameter Estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Formula Using Genetic Algorithm(II): Separation of Short and Long Durations (유전자알고리즘을 이용한 강우강도식 매개변수 추정에 관한 연구(II): 장.단기간 구분 방법의 제시)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Tae-Son;Kim, Soo-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.823-832
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the separation of short and long durations for estimation the parameters of IDF curve is suggested by using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA). Objective functions are to minimize root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative RMSE between observed and computed values. The criteria for separation are two; the first one is to estimate more precisely the parameters of IDF curve and the second is to make a single IDF curve without non-continuous duration point. For this purpose 22 rainfall recording gauges operated by Korea Meteorological Administration are selected and three IDF curves that are used generally in South Korea are tested. The result shows that the IDF curve developed by Heo et al. (1999) would be the best of three tested IDF curves, and the suggested parameter estimation method using MOGA can compute more reliable parameters compared with empirical regression analysis.

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Topographic Effect in the Radiative Transfer Process (복사전달과정에서 지형효과에 따른 기상수치모델의 민감도 분석)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Min, Jae-Sik;Jang, Min;Kim, Bu-Yo;Zo, Il-Sung;Lee, Kyu-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.385-398
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    • 2017
  • Numerical weather prediction experiments were carried out by applying topographic effects to reduce or enhance the solar radiation by terrain. In this study, x and ${\kappa}({\phi}_o,\;{\theta}_o)$ are precalculated for topographic effect on high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with 1 km spatial resolution, and meteorological variables are analyzed through the numerical experiments. For the numerical simulations, cases were selected in winter (CASE 1) and summer (CASE 2). In the CASE 2, topographic effect was observed on the southward surface to enhance the solar energy reaching the surface, and enhance surface temperature and temperature at 2 m. Especially, the surface temperature is changed sensitively due to the change of the solar energy on the surface, but the change of the precipitation is difficult to match of topographic effect. As a result of the verification using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Automated Weather System (AWS) data on Seoul metropolitan area, the topographic effect is very weak in the winter case. In the CASE 1, the improvement of accuracy was numerically confirmed by decreasing the bias and RMSE (Root mean square error) of temperature at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m and relative humidity. However, the accuracy of rainfall prediction (Threat score (TS), BIAS, equitable threat score (ETS)) with topographic effect is decreased compared to without topographic effect. It is analyzed that the topographic effect improves the solar radiation on surface and affect the enhancements of surface temperature, 2 meter temperature, wind speed, and PBL height.

Analyis of stormwater and runoff characteristics in Anseongcun basin using HEC-HMS (HEC-HMS을 이용한 안성천 유역의 강우 유출 특성 분석)

  • Hwang, Byung-Gi;Yang, Seung-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2018
  • The HEC-HMS model was applied to identify the rainfall-runoff processes for the Anseongchun basin, where the lower part of the stream has been damaged severely by tropical storms in the past. Modeling processes include incorporating with the SCS-CN model for loss, Clark's UH model for transformation, exponential recession model for baseflow, and Muskingum model for channel routing. The parameters were calibrated through an optimization technique using a trial and error method. Sensitivity analysis after calibration was performed to understand the effects of parameters, such as the time of concentration, storage coefficient, and base flow related constants. Two storm water events were simulated by the model and compared with the corresponding observations. Good accuracy in predicting the runoff volume, peak flow, and the time to peak flow was achieved using the selected methods. The results of this study can be used as a useful tool for decision makers to determine a master plan for regional flood control management.

A Simulation of the Runoff and the NPS Pollutants Discharge using SWMM Model (SWMM 모형을 이용한 도시 유역의 유출 및 NPS 오염물 배출 모의)

  • 신현석;윤용남
    • Water for future
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 1993
  • This study was conducted for two purposes. The first was the selection of the proper model for the urban runoff, and NPS(non-point source) loads and the second was the adjustment of the selected model through the calibration and the verification of the observed data on an urban drainage basin. The selected model for this study was the Storm Water Management Model(SWMM) developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency(EPA). In particular, the Runoff Block for the surface discharge and the Transport Block for the flow routing was used. The study basin is Youngdu basin, which is a typical developed urban drainage basin. The four rainfall events for the runoff and the two for the four NPS pollutants(SS, BOD, COD and TN) were used for the calibration and the estimation of the model parameters. This study performed the calibration with regard to the peak discharge, the time to peak discharge, the volume and the relative error for three items. It was shown that SWMM can successfully be used for the prediction of the runoff and the NPS pollutants discharge. The result of this study can be used as the basis for the analysis of the correlation between the runoff and the NPS pollutants discharges, and the analysis of the mass balance with the monthly and annual NPS loads in an urban drainage basin.

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Estimation of Potential Water Resources in Mega Cities in Asia

  • Takuya, Komura;Toshitsugu, Moroizumi;Kenji, Okubo;Hiroaki, Furumai;Yoshiro, Ono
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2008
  • The water shortage in mega cities in Asia, which face a rapid growth in urban population, is an outstanding problem. It is important, therefore, to accurately estimate the water balance in each city in order to use the limited water resources effectively. In this study, we estimated the potential water resources in し sixteen mega cities in Asia. The target cities were Delhi and Calcutta, India; Colombo, Sri Lanka; Dhaka, Bangladesh; Yangon, Myanmar; Bangkok, Thailand; Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Singapore; Jakarta, Indonesia; Hanoi, Vietnam; Beijing and Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China; Seoul, the People's Republic of Korea; Manila, the Philippines, and Sapporo and Tokyo, Japan. The potential water resources were estimated by subtracting the actual evaporation from the amount of rainfall. The actual evaporation was estimated using the potential evaporation obtained by Hamon's equation which requires the air temperature and the possible hours of sunshine. When the results of Hamon's and Penman's evaporation equations were compared, a considerable error appeared in the low latitude region. The estimation using Hamon's equation was corrected with the linear regression line of Hamon's and Penman's equations. A classification of the land cover was carried out based on satellite photographs of the target cities, and the volume of surface runoff for each city was obtained using the runoff ratios which depended on the land cover. As a result, the potential water resources in the above mega cities in Asia were found to be greater than the world average. However, the actual water resources which are available for one person to use are probably very limited.

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