• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall Error

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Parameter optimization of agricultural reservoir long-term runoff model based on historical data (실측자료기반 농업용 저수지 장기유출모형 매개변수 최적화)

  • Hong, Junhyuk;Choi, Youngje;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2021
  • Due to climate change the sustainable water resources management of agricultural reservoirs, the largest number of reservoirs in Korea, has become important. However, the DIROM, rainfall-runoff model for calculating agricultural reservoir inflow, has used regression equation developed in the 1980s. This study has optimized the parameters of the DIROM using the genetic algorithm (GA) based on historical inflow data for some agricultural reservoirs that recently begun to observe inflow data. The result showed that the error between the historical inflow and simulated inflow using the optimal parameters was decreased by about 80% compared with the annual inflow with the existing parameters. The correlation coefficient and root mean square error with the historical inflow increased to 0.64 and decreased to 28.2 × 103 ㎥, respectively. As a result, if the DIROM uses the optimal parameters based on the historical inflow of agricultural reservoirs, it will be possible to calculate the long-term reservoir inflow with high accuracy. This study will contribute to future research using the historical inflow of agricultural reservoirs and improvement of the rainfall-runoff model parameters. Furthermore, the reliable long-term inflow data will support for sustainable reservoir management and agricultural water supply.

Analysis of the Optimal Window Size of Hampel Filter for Calibration of Real-time Water Level in Agricultural Reservoirs (농업용저수지의 실시간 수위 보정을 위한 Hampel Filter의 최적 Window Size 분석)

  • Joo, Dong-Hyuk;Na, Ra;Kim, Ha-Young;Choi, Gyu-Hoon;Kwon, Jae-Hwan;Yoo, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.3
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    • pp.9-24
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    • 2022
  • Currently, a vast amount of hydrologic data is accumulated in real-time through automatic water level measuring instruments in agricultural reservoirs. At the same time, false and missing data points are also increasing. The applicability and reliability of quality control of hydrological data must be secured for efficient agricultural water management through calculation of water supply and disaster management. Considering the characteristics of irregularities in hydrological data caused by irrigation water usage and rainfall pattern, the Korea Rural Community Corporation is currently applying the Hampel filter as a water level data quality management method. This method uses window size as a key parameter, and if window size is large, distortion of data may occur and if window size is small, many outliers are not removed which reduces the reliability of the corrected data. Thus, selection of the optimal window size for individual reservoir is required. To ensure reliability, we compared and analyzed the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) of the corrected data and the daily water level of the RIMS (Rural Infrastructure Management System) data, and the automatic outlier detection standards used by the Ministry of Environment. To select the optimal window size, we used the classification performance evaluation index of the error matrix and the rainfall data of the irrigation period, showing the optimal values at 3 h. The efficient reservoir automatic calibration technique can reduce manpower and time required for manual calibration, and is expected to improve the reliability of water level data and the value of water resources.

A Modified grid-based KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model (ModKIMSTORM) (I) - Theory and Model - (격자기반 운동파 강우유출모형 KIMSTORM의 개선(I) - 이론 및 모형 -)

  • Jung, In Kyun;Lee, Mi Seon;Park, Jong Yoon;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6B
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    • pp.697-707
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    • 2008
  • The grid-based KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model (KIMSTORM) by Kim (1998) predicts the temporal variation and spatial distribution of overland flow, subsurface flow and stream flow in a watershed. The model programmed with C++ language on Unix operating system adopts single flowpath algorithm for water balance simulation of flow at each grid element. In this study, we attempted to improve the model by converting the code into FORTRAN 90 on MS Windows operating system and named as ModKIMSTORM. The improved functions are the addition of GAML (Green-Ampt & Mein-Larson) infiltration model, control of paddy runoff rate by flow depth and Manning's roughness coefficient, addition of baseflow layer, treatment of both spatial and point rainfall data, development of the pre- and post-processor, and development of automatic model evaluation function using five evaluation criteria (Pearson's coefficient of determination, Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency, the deviation of runoff volume, relative error of the peak runoff rate, and absolute error of the time to peak runoff). The modified model adopts Shell Sort algorithm to enhance the computational performance. Input data formats are accepted as raster and MS Excel, and model outputs viz. soil moisture, discharge, flow depth and velocity are generated as BSQ, ASCII grid, binary grid and raster formats.

Input Variables Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Mutual Information (상호정보량 기법을 적용한 인공신경망 입력자료의 선정)

  • Han, Kwang-Hee;Ryu, Yong-Jun;Kim, Tae-Soon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2010
  • Input variable selection is one of the various techniques for improving the performance of artificial neural network. In this study, mutual information is applied for input variable selection technique instead of correlation coefficient that is widely used. Among 152 variables of RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) output results, input variables for artificial neural network are chosen by computing mutual information between rainfall records and RDAPS' variables. At first the rainfall forecast variable of RDAPS result, namely APCP, is included as input variable and the other input variables are selected according to the rank of mutual information and correlation coefficient. The input variables using mutual information are usually those variables about wind velocity such as D300, U925, etc. Several statistical error estimates show that the result from mutual information is generally more accurate than those from the previous research and correlation coefficient. In addition, the artificial neural network using input variables computed by mutual information can effectively reduce the relative errors corresponding to the high rainfall events.

Improvement of Non-linear Estimation Equation of Rainfall Intensity over the Korean Peninsula by using the Brightness Temperature of Satellite and Radar Reflectivity Data (기상위성 휘도온도와 기상레이더 반사도 자료를 이용한 한반도 영역의 강우강도 추정 비선형 관계식 개선)

  • Choi, Haklim;Seo, Jong-Jin;Bae, Juyeon;Kim, Sujin;Lee, Kwang-Mog
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the quantitative precipitation estimation method based on satellite brightness temperature. The non-linear equation for rainfall estimation is improved by analysing precipitation cases around the Korean peninsula in summer. Radar reflectivity is adopted the CAPPI 1.5 and CMAX composite fields that provided by the Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA). In addition, the satellite data are used infrared, water vapor and visible channel measured from meteorological imager sensor mounted on the Chollian satellite. The improved algorithm is compared with the results of the A-E method and CRR analytic function. POD, FAR and CSI are 0.67, 0.76 and 0.21, respectively. The MAE and RMSE are 2.49 and 6.18 mm/h. As the quantitative error was reduced in comparison to A-E and qualitative accuracy increased in compare with CRR, the disadvantage of both algorithms are complemented. The method of estimating precipitation through a relational expression can be used for short-term forecasting because of allowing precipitation estimation in a short time without going through complicated algorithms.

The Relationship between Parameters of the SWAT Model and the Geomorphological Characteristics of a Watershed (SWAT 모형의 매개변수와 유역의 지형학적 특성 관계)

  • Lee, Woong Hee;Lee, Ji Haeng;Park, Ji Hun;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2016
  • The correlation relationships and their corresponding equations between the geomorphological parameters and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model parameters by Sequential Uncertainty Fitting - version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm of SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) were developed at the Seom-river experimental watershed. The parameters of the SWAT model at the Soksa-river experimental watershed were estimated by the developed equations. The SWAT model parameters were estimated by SUFI-2 algorithm of SWAT-CUP with rainfall-runoff data from the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007. Rainfall-runoff simulation of the SWAT model was carried out at the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007 for the applicability of the estimated parameters by the developed equations. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between the observed and the simulated rainfall-runoffs using the estimated parameters by developed equations of correlation analysis and the optimum parameters by SUFI-2 of SWAT-CUP were $1.09m^3/s$ and $0.93m^3/s$ respectively at the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007. Therefore, it is considered that the parameter estimation of the SWAT model by the geomorphological characteristics parameters has applicability.

Investigating Remotely Sensed Precipitation from Different Sources and Their Nonlinear Responses in a Physically Based Hydrologic Model (다른 원격탐사 센서로 추출한 강우자료의 이질성과 이에 의한 비선형유출반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Nam-Sun;Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.10 s.171
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    • pp.823-832
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation is the most important component to the study of water and energy cycle in hydrology. In this study we investigate rainfall retrieval uncertainty from different sources of remotely sensed precipitation field and then probable error propagation in the simulation of hydrologic variables especially, runoff on different vegetation cover. Two remotely sensed rainfall retrievals (space-borne IR-only and ground radar rainfall) are explored and compared visually and statistically. Then, an offline Community Land Model (CLM) is forced with in situ meteorological data to simulate the amount of runoff and determine their impact on model predictions. A fundamental assumption made in this study is that CLM can adequately represent the physical land surface processes. Results show there are big differences between different sources of precipitation fields in terms of the magnitude and temporal variability. The study provides some intuitions on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via the interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach. Eventually it will contribute to the understanding of water resources redistribution to the climate change in Korean Peninsula.

Probabilistic Medium- and Long-Term Reservoir Inflow Forecasts (I) Long-Term Runoff Analysis (확률론적 중장기 댐 유입량 예측 (I) 장기유출 해석)

  • Bae, Deg-Hyo;Kim, Jin-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.3 s.164
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    • pp.261-274
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    • 2006
  • This study performs a daily long-term runoff analysis for 30 years to forecast medium- and long-term probabilistic reservoir inflows on the Soyang River basin. Snowmelt is computed by Anderson's temperature index snowmelt model and potenetial evaporation is estimated by Penman-combination method to produce input data for a rainfall-runoff model. A semi-distributed TOPMODEL which is composed of hydrologic rainfall-runoff process on the headwater-catchment scale based on the original TOPMODEL and a hydraulic flow routing model to route the catchment outflows using by kinematic wave scheme is used in this study It can be observed that the time variations of the computed snowmelt and potential evaporation are well agreed with indirect observed data such as maximum snow depth and small pan evaporation. Model parameters are calibrated with low-flow(1979), medium-flow(1999), and high-flow(1990) rainfall-runoff events. In the model evaluation, relative volumetric error and correlation coefficient between observed and computed flows are computed to 5.64% and 0.91, respectively. Also, the relative volumetric errors decrease to 17% and 4% during March and April with or without the snowmelt model. It is concluded that the semi-distributed TOPMODEL has well performance and the snowmelt effects for the long-term runoff computation are important on the study area.

Quantitative precipitation estimation of X-band radar using empirical relationship (경험적 관계식을 이용한 X밴드 레이더의 정량적 강우 추정)

  • Song, Jae In;Lim, Sanghun;Cho, Yo Han;Jeong, Hyeon Gyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2022
  • As the occurrences of flash floods have increased due to climate change, faster and more accurate precipitation observation using X-band radar has become important. Therefore, the Ministry of Environment installed two dual-pol X-band radars at Samcheok and Uljin. The radar data used in this study were obtained from two different elevation angles and composed to reduce the shielding effect. To obtain quantitative rainfall, quality control (QC), KDP retrieval, and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) methods were sequentially applied. To improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the X-band radar, we retrieved parameters for the relationship between rainfall rate and specific differential phase, which is commonly called the R-KDP relationship; hence, an empirical approach was developed using multiple rain gauges for those two radars. The newly suggested relationship, R = 27.4K0.81DP, slightly increased the correlation coefficient by 1% more than the relationship suggested by the previous study. The root mean square error significantly decreased from 3.88 mm/hr to 3.68 mm/hr, and the bias of the estimated precipitation also decreased from -1.72 mm/hr to -0.92 mm/hr for overall cases, showing the improvement of the new method.

Analysis of statistical models for ozone concentrations at the Paju city in Korea (경기도 파주시 오존농도의 통계모형 연구)

  • Lee, Hoon-Ja
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1085-1092
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    • 2009
  • The ozone data is one of the important environmental data for measurement of the atmospheric condition of the country. In this article, the Autoregressive Error (ARE) model and Neural Networks (NN) model have been considered for analyzing the ozone data at the northern part of the Gyeonggi-Do, Paju monitoring site in Korea. In the both ARE model and NN model, seven meteorological variables and four pollution variables are used as the explanatory variables for the ozone data set. The seven meteorological variables are daily maximum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, rainfall, dew point temperature, steam pressure, and amount of cloud. The four air pollution explanatory variables are Sulfur dioxide ($SO_2$), Nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$), Cobalt (CO), and Promethium 10 (PM10). The result showed that the NN model is generally better suited for describing the ozone concentration than the ARE model. However, the ARE model will be expected also good when we add the explanatory variables in the model.

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