• Title/Summary/Keyword: ROC Curve

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The Preconceptional Level of Peripheral Natural Killer Cells which was Expected to Bring Successful Treatment Outcome using Low-dose Intravenous Gamma Immunoglobulin (IVIg) Infusion in Patients with Recurrent Spontaneous Abortion (습관성 유산 환자에서 저용량 면역글로불린 치료와 말초혈액 내 Natural Killer (NK) 세포의 임계치에 관한 연구)

  • Cha, Sun Hwa;Kim, Hae Suk;Kim, Hye Ok;Song, In Ok;Yoo, Keun Jai;Koong, Mi Kyung;Kang, Inn Soo;Yang, Kwang Moon
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.217-222
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    • 2005
  • Objectives: We aimed to investigate the clinical effect of low-dose intravenous immunoglobulin treatment in unexplained recurrent spontaneous aborters (RSA) with elevated peripheral CD56+ natural killer (NK) cell levels and to determine the pre-conceptional NK cell percentage predictive of subsequent successful pregnancy outcome. Materials and Methods: Sixty four cases of unexplained recurrent miscarriage with elevated peripheral NK cells (>15%) were received low dose IVIg infusion at the dosage of 400 mg/Kg/month after confirmation of gestational sac and continued until 20 weeks. The patients were divided into two groups according to the pregnancy outcome: Group I was success of treatment defined as live birth at or after 25 gestational weeks and Group II was failure of treatment. The preconceptional levels of the peripheral blood NK cells were compared between two groups. Results: Fifty-three pregnancies resulted in live births after 25 weeks and 11 resulted in abortion (Overall success rate of IVIG treatment was 82.8%). Preconceptional CD56+ NK cell percentage in group II ($27.4{\pm}1.9%$) was higher than those in group I ($22.3{\pm}0.8%$). By using ROC curve, optimal discrimination between success and failure of treatment was achieved with ${\leq}27%$ of preconceptional NK cell percentage. Conclusion: In RSA patients with elevated NK cells, we suggest that preconceptional peripheral blood CD56+ NK cell level could be a useful marker for predicting successful treatment outcome of low-dose IVIg infusion.

The Clinical Features and Risk Factors of Seizure After Doxylamine Intoxication (독실라민 중독시 발생할 수 있는 발작의 특성과 위험인자)

  • Song, Beom-Soo;Lee, Ki-Man;Kim, Sun-Wook;You, Je-Sung;Chung, Tae-Nyung;Park, Yoo-Seok;Jung, Sung-Phil;Goo, Hong-Du;Park, In-Cheol
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Doxylamine is antihistamine drug that is used as a hypnotic. It is also used for suicidal attempts because it can be easily purchased at the pharmacy without a prescription. There were many articles about the complications after doxylamine intoxication such as a rhabdomyolysis, but only a few articles have reported on seizure. We reviewed the cases of doxylamine intoxication with seizure that were treated in the emergency department. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of the patients who were over 15 years old and who were intoxicated by doxylamine at 3 emergency medical centers from January 2006 to June 2010. We reviewed the patients' age, gender, the dose of doxylamine ingested, if gastrointestinal decontamination was done, the time from intoxication to hospital arrival, the seizure history, treatment of seizure, the electroencephalography (EEG) results, the brain computed tomography (CT) results and the blood test results. Results: There were 168 patients who were intoxicated by doxylamine during the study period. Twelve patients had a seizure episode. The differences between the patients who developed seizure and the patients who did not were the dose and the serum levels of sodium and creatinine. The only clinically meaningful difference was the amount of doxylamine. The amount of doxylamine ingested (>29 mg/kg) predicted the development of seizure with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 92% on the ROC curve. One patient among the seizure patients expired in the emergency department. Conclusion: In case of doxylamine intoxicated patients, there is close relationship between seizure and ingested amount, so close observation needs to be done for the patients who ingest too much because doxylamine can cause death. Further prospective studies are needed for doxylamine intoxicated patients with a seizure episode.

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Performances of Prognostic Models in Stratifying Patients with Advanced Gastric Cancer Receiving First-line Chemotherapy: a Validation Study in a Chinese Cohort

  • Xu, Hui;Zhang, Xiaopeng;Wu, Zhijun;Feng, Ying;Zhang, Cheng;Xie, Minmin;Yang, Yahui;Zhang, Yi;Feng, Chong;Ma, Tai
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.268-278
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: While several prognostic models for the stratification of death risk have been developed for patients with advanced gastric cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy, they have seldom been tested in the Chinese population. This study investigated the performance of these models and identified the optimal tools for Chinese patients. Materials and Methods: Patients diagnosed with metastatic or recurrent gastric adenocarcinoma who received first-line chemotherapy were eligible for inclusion in the validation cohort. Their clinical data and survival outcomes were retrieved and documented. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the models. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for patients in different risk groups divided by 7 published stratification tools. Log-rank tests with pairwise comparisons were used to compare survival differences. Results: The analysis included a total of 346 patients with metastatic or recurrent disease. The median overall survival time was 11.9 months. The patients were different into different risk groups according to the prognostic stratification models, which showed variability in distinguishing mortality risk in these patients. The model proposed by Kim et al. showed relative higher predicting abilities compared to the other models, with the highest χ2 (25.8) value in log-rank tests across subgroups, and areas under the curve values at 6, 12, and 24 months of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.72), 0.60 (0.54-0.65), and 0.63 (0.56-0.69), respectively. Conclusions: Among existing prognostic tools, the models constructed by Kim et al., which incorporated performance status score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, and tumor differentiation, were more effective in stratifying Chinese patients with gastric cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy.

Acoustic Analysis and Auditory-Perceptual Assessment for Diagnosis of Functional Dysphonia (기능성 음성장애의 진단을 위한 음향학적, 청지각적 평가)

  • Kim, Geun-Hyo;Lee, Yeon-Yoo;Bae, In-Ho;Lee, Jae-Seok;Lee, Chang-Yoon;Park, Hee-June;Lee, Byung-Joo;Kwon, Soon-Bok
    • Journal of Clinical Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.212-222
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    • 2018
  • Background and Objectives : The purpose of this study was to compare the measured values of acoustic and auditory perceptual assessments between normal and functional dysphonia (FD) groups. Materials and Methods : 102 subjects with FD and 59 normal voice groups were participated in this study. Mid-vowel portion of the sustained vowel /a/ and two sentences of 'Sanchaek' were edited, concatenated, and analyzed by Praat script. And then auditory-perceptual (AP) rating was completed by three listeners. Results : The FD group showed higher acoustic voice quality index version 2.02 and version 3.01 (AVQIv2 and AVQIv3), slope, Hammarberg index (HAM), grade (G) and overall severity (OS), values than normal group. Additionally, smoothed cepstral peak prominence in Praat (PraatCPPS), tilt, low-to high spectral band energies (L/H ratio), long-term average spectrum (LTAS) in FD group were lower than normal voice group. And the correlation among measured values ranged from -0.250 to 0.960. In ROC curve analysis, cutoff values of AVQIv2, AVQIv3, PraatCPPS, slope, tilt, L/H ratio, HAM, and LTAS were 3.270, 2.013, 13.838, -22.286, -9.754, 369.043, 27.912, and 34.523, respectively, and the AUC of each analysis was over .890 in AVQIv2, AVQIv3, and PraatCPPS, over 0.731 in HAM, tilt, and slope, over 0.605 in LTAS and L/H ratio. Conclusions : In conclusion, AVQI and CPPS showed the highest predictive power for distinguishing between normal and FD groups. Acoustic analyses and AP rating as noninvasive examination can reinforce the screening capability of FD and help to establish efficient diagnosis and treatment process plan for FD.

Classify the Acute Drug Intoxication Patients with Poisoning Severity Score(PSS) and Calculate the Optimal Cutoff Value of PSS, PSSsum to Predict Poor Prognosis (급성 약물 중독 환자에서 Poisoning Severity Score (PSS)를 이용한 중증도 분류와 중증도 분류에 있어 PSS 값과 PSSsum 값의 Optimal Cutoff Value)

  • Park, Hyun Woo;Park, Ha Young;Kim, Han Byeol;Park, Keon Woo;Lee, Sang Hun;Lee, Hyun Wook;Lee, Je Won;Hwang, Tae Sik
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study examined the Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) from acute poisoning patients, to determine the relationships among the PSS, PSSsum, the primary outcome (prolonged stay at the ER over 24 hours, general ward and ICU admission and the application of intubation and mechanical ventilator, and the administration of inotropes). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted through the EMR for 15 months. The PSS grade was classified according to the evidence of symptoms and signs. The differences in the primary outcomes between the PSS of when a single organ was damaged, and the PSS, PSSsum combined with the grade of when multiple organs were damaged, were studied. The cutoff value was calculated using the receiving operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results: Of the 284 patients; 85 (29.9%) were men with a mean age of 48.8 years, and their average arrival time to the ER was $4.4{\pm}6.7\;hours$. The most frequently used drug was hypnotics. The number of patients with PSS grade 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 17, 129, 122, 24, and one, respectively. No ICU admissions, application of intubation and mechanical ventilators, administration of inotropes were observed among the patients with PSS grades 0 and 1 but only on patients with PSS grades 2 to 4. At PSS, when separating the patients according to the number of damaged organs, 17 had no symptoms, 133 had one organ damaged, 75 had two organs damaged, 36 had three organs damaged, and 23 had four organs damaged. Significant differences were observed between increasing number of damaged organs and the primary outcome. Conclusion: Among the acute poisoning patients, the PSS was higher in severity when the grade was higher. The number of damaged organs and the primary outcome showed meaningful statistical differences. This study confirmed that when the patients' PSS>2 and PSSsum>5, the frequency of ICU admission was higher, and they were considered to be severe with an increased prescription risk of application of intubation and mechanical ventilator, and the administration of inotropes.

Application of Integrated Modelling Framework Consisted of Delft3D and HABITAT for Habitat Suitability Assessment (생물서식지 적합성 평가를 위한 Delft3D와 HABITAT 모델의 연계 적용)

  • Lim, Hyejung;Na, Eun Hye;Jeon, Hyeong Cheol;Song, Hojin;Yoo, Hojun;Hwang, Soon Hong;Ryu, Hui-Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.217-228
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    • 2021
  • This paper discusses a methodology where an integrated modelling framework is used to quantify the risk derived from anthropic activities on habitats and species. To achieve this purpose, a tool comprising the Delft3D and HABITAT model, was applied in the Yeongsan river. Delft3D effectively simulated the operational condition and flow of weirs in river. In accuracy evaluation of the Delft3D-FLOW, the Bias, Pbias, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Index of Agreement (IOA) were used, and the result was evaluated as grade above 'Satisfactory'. The HABITAT calculated Habitat Suitability Value (HSV) for the following eight species: mammal, fish, aquatic plant, and benthic macroinvertebrate. An Area was defined as a suitable habitat if the HSV was larger than 0.5. HABITAT was judged accurately by measuring the Correct Classification rate (CCR) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For benthic macroinvertebrate, the CCR and AUC were 77% and 0.834, respectively, at thresholds of 0.017 and 4 inds/m2 for HSV and individuals per unit area. This meant that the HABITAT model accurately predicted the appearance of the benthic macroinvertebrates by approximately 77% and that the probability of false alarms was also very low. As a result of evaluating the suitability of habitats, in the Yeongsan river, if the annual "lowest level" (Seungchon weir: 2.5 EL.m/ Juksan weir: -1.35 EL.m) was maintained, the average habitat improvement effect of 6.5%P compared to the 'reference' scenario was predicted. Consequently, it was demonstrated that the integrated modelling framework for habitat suitability assessment is able to support the remedy aquatic ecological management.

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning based Prediction Models for University Students Dropout (머신러닝 기반 대학생 중도 탈락 예측 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Seok-Bong Jeong;Du-Yon Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2023
  • The increase in the dropout rate of college students nationwide has a serious negative impact on universities and society as well as individual students. In order to proactive identify students at risk of dropout, this study built a decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, and deep learning-based dropout prediction model using academic data that can be easily obtained from each university's academic management system. Their performances were subsequently analyzed and compared. The analysis revealed that while the logistic regression-based prediction model exhibited the highest recall rate, its f-1 value and ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve) value were comparatively lower. On the other hand, the random forest-based prediction model demonstrated superior performance across all other metrics except recall value. In addition, in order to assess model performance over distinct prediction periods, we divided these periods into short-term (within one semester), medium-term (within two semesters), and long-term (within three semesters). The results underscored that the long-term prediction yielded the highest predictive efficacy. Through this study, each university is expected to be able to identify students who are expected to be dropped out early, reduce the dropout rate through intensive management, and further contribute to the stabilization of university finances.

Validation and Reliability of the Sleep Problem Screening Questionnaire: Focusing on Insomnia Symptoms (수면 문제 선별 질문지의 신뢰도, 타당도 연구: 불면증상을 중심으로)

  • JuYeal Lee;SunWoo Choi;HyunKyung Shin;JeongHo Seok;Sooah Jang
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.22-27
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a screening tool that is simple and easy to use for assessing sleep problems, including hypersomnolence, restless legs syndrome, and insomnia. We also examined the reliability and validity of this tool. Methods: We developed the Sleep Problem Screening Questionnaire (SPSQ), which consists of three sub-sections: insomnia (SPSQi), hypersomnolence (SPSQh), and restless legs syndrome (SPSQr). Subsequently, the participants, consisting of 222 patients with insomnia disorder and 78 healthy individuals, completed both the SPSQ and the comparative scale (Korean version of the Insomnia Severity Index). The analysis was then conducted using this data. Results: The SPSQ demonstrated good convergent and discriminant validity, as well as satisfactory internal consistency. A cutoff score of 6 on the SPSQi was found to be optimal for distinguishing individuals with insomnia. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the SPSQ is a reliable and valid tool for screening sleep problems among general adult population. However, there is a limitation as a comparison and validation with scales related to restless legs syndrome and hypersomnolence were not conducted.

Nanotechnology-enabled diagnostics for the correlation between serum APN, Cystatin C and MMP-9 levels in patients with hypertension during pregnancy

  • Hui Deng;Yu-Lan Fan;Yu-Qi Wang;Yin Yang;Da-Yong Jiang
    • Advances in nano research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.213-219
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    • 2024
  • Nanotechnology is one of the critical factors involved in enhancing the sensitivity of serum biomarker detection. To explore the relationship between serum APN, Cystatin C and MMP-9 levels in patients with hypertension during pregnancy and the severity and prognosis of the disease. A total of 75 cases of hypertensive disorder complicating pregnancy (HDCP) patients who were admitted to the hospital from February 5, 2023 to May 9, 2024, were selected as the study group, and 70 healthy pregnant women who were in the same gestational week were selected as the control group. The serum APN, MMP-9 and Cys C levels of pregnant women and HDCP patients with different disease severity were compared between the two groups, and the receiver characteristic curve (ROC) was used to analyze its diagnostic value. The serum APN, MMP-9 and Cys C levels of HDCP patients with different prognosis were compared, and the factors affecting the prognosis of patients were analyzed by Logistic regression. Nanoparticles could aslo enable the sensitive detection and quantification of APN, Cystatin C, and MMP-9 in serum samples, thus increasing the accuracy of the study. The serum MMP-9 and Cys C levels of pregnant women in the study group were significantly increased, and the APN level was significantly decreased (P<0.05). Serum MMP-9 and Cys C levels in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension, mild preeclampsia, and severe preeclampsia gradually increased (r=0.768, 0.766; P<0.001), and APN levels gradually decreased (r=-0.748, P< 0.001). In the diagnosis of patients with HDCP, the sensitivity, specificity and AUC of APN single diagnosis were 70.00%, 82.67% and 9.848 respectively. The sensitivity, specificity and AUC of MMP-9 single diagnosis were 82.86%, 74.67% and 298.300 respectively. The sensitivity, specificity and AUC of Cys C single diagnosis were 80.00%, 74.67% and 1.301 respectively. There were significant differences in age, BMI, parity, dysthymia, disease severity, APN, MMP-9 and Cys between patients with poor prognosis of HDCP and patients with good prognosis of HDCP (P<0.001). The patient's age, BMI, disease severity, APN, MMP-9 and Cys Cwere all related to HDCP. They were related risk factors of HDCP (P<0.05).

The Prognostic Role of B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (만성폐쇄성폐질환의 급성 악화시 예후 인자로서의 혈중 B-type Natriuretic Peptide의 역할)

  • Lee, Ji Hyun;Oh, So Yeon;Hwang, Iljun;Kim, Okjun;Kim, Hyun Kuk;Kim, Eun Kyung;Lee, Ji-Hyun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.600-610
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    • 2004
  • Background : The plasma B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP) concentration increases with the degree of pulmonary hypertension in patients with chronic respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to examine the prognostic role of BNP in the acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD). Method : We selected 67 patients who were admitted our hospital because of an acute exacerbation of COPD. Their BNP levels were checked on admission at the Emergency Department. Their medical records were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups according to their in-hospital mortality. The patients' medical history, comobidity, exacerbation type, blood gas analysis, pulmonary function, APACHE II severity score and plasma BNP level were compared. Results : Multiple logistic regression analysis identified three independent predictors of mortality: $FEV_1$, APACHE II score and plasma BNP level. The decedents group showed a lower $FEV_1$($28{\pm}7$ vs. $37{\pm}15%$, p=0.005), a higher APACHE II score($22.4{\pm}6.1$ vs. $15.8{\pm}4.7$, p=0.000) and a higher BNP level ($201{\pm}116$ vs. $77{\pm}80pg/mL$, p=0.000) than the sSurvivors group. When the BNP cut-off level was set to 88pg/mL using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 90% and the specificity was 75% in differentiating between the survivors and decedents. On Fisher's exact test, the odds ratio for mortality was 21.2 (95% CI 2.49 to 180.4) in the patients with a BNP level > 88pg/mL. Conclusion : The plasma BNP level might be a predictor of mortality in an acute exacerbation of COPD as well as the $FEV_1$ and APACHE II score.