• Title/Summary/Keyword: RCP 8.5

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Prediction of SWAT Stream Flow Using Only Future Precipitation Data (미래 강수량 자료만을 이용한 SWAT모형의 유출 예측)

  • Lee, Ji Min;Kum, Donghyuk;Kim, Young Sug;Kim, Yun Jung;Kang, Hyunwoo;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lee, Gwan Jae;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2013
  • Much attention has been needed in water resource management at the watershed due to drought and flooding issues caused by climate change in recent years. Increase in air temperature and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change are affecting hydrologic cycles, such as evaporation and soil moisture. Thus, these phenomena result in increased runoff at the watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been used to evaluate rainfall-runoff at the watershed reflecting effects on hydrology of various weather data such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed. For bias-correction of RCP data, at least 30 year data are needed. However, for most gaging stations, only precipitation data have been recorded and very little stations have recorded other weather data. In addition, the RCP scenario does not provide all weather data for the SWAT model. In this study, two scenarios were made to evaluate whether it would be possible to estimate streamflow using measured precipitation and long-term average values of other weather data required for running the SWAT. With measured long-term weather data (scenario 1) and with long-term average values of weather data except precipitation (scenario 2), the estimate streamflow values were almost the same with NSE value of 0.99. Increase/decrease by ±2, ±4 in temperature and humidity data did not affect streamflow. Thus, the RCP precipitation data for Hongcheon watershed were bias-corrected with measured long-term precipitation data to evaluate effects of climate change on streamflow. The results revealed that estimated streamflow for 2055s was the greatest among data for 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. However, estimated streamflow for 2085s decreased by 9%. In addition, streamflow for Spring would be expected to increase compared with current data and streamflow for Summer will be decreased with RCP data. The results obtained in this study indicate that the streamflow could be estimated with long-term precipitation data only and effects of climate change could be evaluated using precipitation data as shown in this study.

Determination of the Optimal Spatial Interpolation Methods for Estimating Missing Precipitation Data in Not Covered Area by Climate Change Scenario (기후변화시나리오 데이터 누락지역의 강수자료 보완을 위한 최적 공간보간기법 선정)

  • Jang, Dong Woo;Park, Hyo Seon;Choi, Jin Tak
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2015
  • 공간보간기법은 미계측지역의 강수예측을 위해 통상적으로 사용되는 방법 중의 하나이다. 이 연구에서는 기상청에서 제공하고 있는 RCP 8.5 시나리오에 의한 남한상세 강수자료 중 지형이 복잡한 도서지역에서 제공되지 않는 데이터 누락격자에 대하여 최적의 공간보간기법을 선정하여 강수자료를 생성할 수 있도록 하였다. 적합한 보간기법을 선정하기 위해 데이터 누락지역에 대한 분석을 수행하였고, 최신 행정구역도에 맞추어 1km×1km 격자를 한반도 전체지역에 맞추어 생성된 격자를 사용하였다. ESRI사의 ArcGIS 프로그램을 이용하여 공간보간기법을 적용하였다. 사용된 보간법은 역거리가중치법(IDW), 정규크리깅(Ordinary Kriging), 보편크리깅(Universal Kriging), 스플라인(Spline)이며 가장 적합한 공간보간기법을 선정하기 위해 기후변화시나리오에 의한 데이터 중 해안선 주변 특정격자에서의 값을 누락시켜 공간보간기법을 통해 생성된 값과 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 값을 정량적으로 비교하였다. 공간보간기법의 적합도 평가를 위해 MAE(Mean Absolute Error), MSE(Mean Squared Error), PBIAS(Percent of BIAS), G(goodness of prediction) 분석을 수행하였고, 산점도 분석을 통해 실제값과 보간값의 오차율 평가를 병행하여 최적 공간보간기법을 결정하였다. 사용된 강수데이터는 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 2015~2019년 중 강수가 높게 나타난 8월 자료를 이용하였다. 해안선 지역의 강수량 추정시 역거리 가중치법과 크리깅방법은 일부 지점에서 과다 추정되는 경향이 있고, 스플라인 방법이 전체적인 총 강수량이 기후변화시나리오에 의한 실제값과 유사한 것으로 나타났다. 실제값과 보간값의 교차검증을 수행한 결과 정규크리깅 기법이 가장 높은 정확도를 보였으며, 전체적으로 실제값과 유사한 범위내의 강수량이 생성되는 것으로 나타났다.

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The change of grain quality and starch assimilation of rice under future climate conditions according to RCP 8.5 scenario (RCP 8.5 시나리오에 따른 미래 기후조건에서 벼의 품질 및 전분 동화 특성 변화)

  • Sang, Wan-Gyu;Cho, Hyeoun-Suk;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Shin, Pyong;Baek, Jae-Kyeong;Lee, Yun-Ho;Cho, Jeong-Il;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.296-304
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of climate change on rice yield and quality. Experiments were conducted using SPAR(Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) chambers, which was designed to create virtual future climate conditions, in the National Institute of Crop Science, Jeonju, Korea, in 2016. In the future climate conditions(+2.8C temp, 580 ppm CO2) of year 2051~2060 according to RCP 8.5 scenario, elevated temperature and CO2 accelerated the heading date by about five days than the present climate conditions, resulted in a high temperature environment during grain filling stage. Rice yield decreased sharply in the future climate conditions due to the high temperature induced poor ripening. And the spikelet numbers, ripening ratio, and 1000-grain weight of brown rice were significantly decreased compared to control. The rice grain quality was also decreased sharply, especially due to the increased immature grains. In the future climate conditions, expression of starch biosynthesis-related genes such as granule-bound starch synthase(GBSSI, GBSSII, SSIIa, SSIIb, SSIIIa), starch branching enzyme(BEIIb) and ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase(AGPS1, AGPS2, AGPL2) were repressed in developing seeds, whereas starch degradation related genes such as αamylase(Amy1C, Amy3D, Amy3E) were induced. These results suggest that the reduction in yield and quality of rice in the future climate conditions is likely caused mainly by the poor grain filling by high temperature. Therefore, it is suggested to develop tolerant cultivars to high temperature during grain filling period and a new cropping system in order to ensure a high quality of rice in the future climate conditions.

Effects of Continental Evaporation for Precipitation Over East Asia in the Past and the Future of HadGEM2-AO Climate Model (HadGEM2-AO 기후모델에 따른 과거와 미래의 동아시아 강수량에 대한 육지 증발량의 영향)

  • Kim, Jin-Uk;Lee, Johan;Boo, Kyung-On;Shim, Sungbo;Kim, Jee-Eun;Byun, Young-Hwa
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.553-563
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    • 2016
  • Land evaporation contribution to precipitation over East Asia is studied to understand terrestrial moisture source of continental precipitation. Moisture recycling of precipitation relying on terrestrial evaporation is estimated based on the analysis method of Van der Ent et al. (2010). We utilize HadGEM2-AO simulations for the period of 1970~1999 and 2070~2099 from RCP8.5. Globally, 46% of terrestrial precipitation is depending from continental evaporation. 58% of terrestrial evaporation returns as continental precipitation. Over East Asia, precipitation has been affected by local evaporation and transported moisture. The advection of upwind continental evaporation results from the prevailing westerlies from the midwestern of Eurasian continent. For the present-day period, about 66% of the precipitation over the land of East Asia originates from land evaporation. Regionally, the ratios change and the ratios of precipitation terrestrial origin over the Northern inland and Southern coast of East Asia are 82% and 48%, respectively. Seasonally, the continental moisture recycling ratio is larger during summer (JJA) than winter (DJF). According to RCP8.5, moisture recycling ratio is expected to change. At the end of the 21st century, the impact of continental moisture sources for precipitation over East Asia is projected to be reduced by about 5% compared to at the end of 20th century. To understand the future changes, moisture residence time change is investigated using depletion and replenishment time.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Anti-Drought Capacity for Boryeong Dam using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 보령댐의 내한능력 평가)

  • Kim, Won Jin;Jung, Chung Gil;U, So-Yeong;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.24-24
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    • 2018
  • 최근 10년간 우리나라에 빈번하게 발생한 가뭄 가운데 2014년과 2015년에 발생한 가장 극심한 가뭄으로 금강유역은 평년의 84.4%의 강수량을 기록하였고, 특히 2015년 6월부터 9월까지의 강수량은 343.1 mm로 평년 대비 38.3% 수준에 머물렀다. 금강유역 내에 위치한 보령댐은 충남 서부지역 8개 시 군에 생활용수와 공업용수를 공급하고 있는 중요한 수원으로 현재 심각한 물 부족으로 저수율이 30%를 밑돌고 있어 대상지역의 현재 및 장래 물 부족 대책이 필요한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 보령댐 유역(297.4km2)을 대상으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모델과 GCM(General Circulation Model) 기후변화 시나리오를 활용하여 극한 기후변화 사상이 반영된 보령댐의 내한능력을 평가하고자 하였다. 유역의 물수지 분석을 위해 보령댐 유역을 대상으로 기상자료, 보령댐 운영자료를 수집하였으며. SWAT 모형의 신뢰성 있는 유출량 보정을 위해 보령댐의 실측 방류량을 이용하여 댐 운영모의를 고려하였고 유입량 및 방류량 자료를 활용하여 모형의 보정(2005~2009)과 검증(2010~2017)을 실시하였다. 기후변화에 따른 내 저수지 내한능력평가를 위해 APCC의 26개 CMIP5 GCM 자료 중 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오 특성을 분석하여 극한 기후 시나리오를 선정하여 Historical 기간(1980~2017)과 미래 기간(2000~2099)을 대상으로 극한 기후변화 사상에 따른 보령댐 유역의 내한능력을 평가하였다.

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Study on the Effects of Future Urban Growth on Surface Ozone Concentrations in the Seoul Metropolitan Region (수도권 미래 도시성장이 오존농도 변화에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Seok, Hyeon-Bae;Jeong, Ju-Hee;Kang, Yoon-Hee;Kim, Hyunsu;Kim, Yoo-Keun
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.31-46
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the regional climate (WRF) and air quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate the effects of future urban growth on surface ozone concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR). These analyses were performed based on changes in ozone concentrations during ozone seasons (May-June) for the year 2050 (future) relative to 2012 (present) by urban growth. The results were compared with the impacts of RCP scenarios on ozone concentrations in the SMR. The fractions of urban in the SMR (25.8 %) for the 2050 were much higher than those (13.9 %) for the 2012 and the future emissions (e.g., CO, NO, NO2, SO2, VOC) were increased from 121 % (NO) to 161.3 % (NO2) depending on emission material. The mean and daily maximum 1-h ozone in the SMR increased about 3 - 7 ppb by the effect the RCP scenarios. However, the effect of urban growth reduced the mean ozone by 3 ppb in the SMR and increased the daily maximum 1-h ozone by 2 - 5 ppb over the northeastern SMR and around the coastline. In particular, the ozone pollution days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard (100 ppb) were far more affected by urban growth than mean values. As a result, the average number of days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard increased up to 10 times.