• Disaster Prevention Review
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.161-175
• /
• 2013

• Water for future
• /
• v.47 no.7
• /
• pp.18-35
• /
• 2014

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.51 no.spc
• /
• pp.1091-1103
• /
• 2018

Having knowledge regarding to which region is prone to drought or flood is a crucial issue in water resources planning and management. This could be more challenging when the occurrence of these hazards affected by climate change. In this study the future streamflow during the wet season (July to September) and dry season (October to March) for the twenty first century of South Korea was investigated. This study used the statistics of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of one global climate model (i.e., INMCM4) with 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios as inputs for The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) model. The PRMS model was tested for the historical periods (1966-2016) and then the parameters of model were used to project the future changes of 5 large River basins in Korea for three future periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s) compared to the reference period (1976-2005). Then, the different responses in climate and streamflow projection during these two seasons (wet and dry) was investigated. The results showed that under INMCM4 scenario, the occurrence of drought in dry season is projected to be stronger in 2025s than 2055s from decreasing -7.23% (-7.06%) in 2025s to -3.81% (-0.71%) in 2055s for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Regarding to the far future (2085s), for RCP 4.5 is projected to increase streamflow in the northern part, and decrease streamflow in the southern part (-3.24%), however under RCP8.5 almost all basins are vulnerable to drought, especially in the southern part (-16.51%). Also, during the wet season both increasing (Almost in northern and western part) and decreasing (almost in the southern part) in streamflow relative to the reference period are projected for all periods and RCPs under INMCM4 scenario.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.53 no.6
• /
• pp.427-436
• /
• 2020

It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2017.05a
• /
• pp.403-403
• /
• 2017

기후변화에 따라 도시의 홍수유출이 어떻게 변화할 것인가를 살펴보는 것은 안전한 도시를 설계하는데 매우 중요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 도시홍수유출의 변화를 살펴보고자 하였다. 하지만 기후변화 시나리오 자료는 물리적인 계산량의 한계로 인해 월이나 일 단위의 결과를 갖고 있어 도시홍수유출의 모의에 직접 적용하기 곤란하다. 이를 위해 시단위까지 자료의 상세화가 필요한데 본 연구에서는 기존에 개발된 "K번째 최근접 표본 재추출 방법에 의한 일 강우량의 추계학적 분해" 방법을 기상청의 RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 적용하였다. 이와 같이 추계학적인 방법을 이용해 강우를 시간단위로 분해하면 일단위 강우량은 보존되면서 다양한 시단위의 강우 시나리오를 얻을 수 있으므로 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 시단위로 상세화 하는 동시에 동일한 일단위 강우량을 갖는 많은 시단위 자료를 생성해 낼 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 방법을 통해 확장된 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 이용해 호우사상을 추출하고 SWMM을 이용하여 도시 홍수유출을 모의함으로써 많은 가상의 홍수유출 자료를 확보할 수 있으며, 이를 통계적으로 분석하여 각 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 도시홍수유출의 변화를 살펴보았다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2020.06a
• /
• pp.338-338
• /
• 2020

강우-유출 모형에 의한 유출해석은 하천의 기후변화 및 재난대응, 수자원확보, 유역개발 등의 정책수립을 위한 가장 기본적인 과정이다. 이를 위해 다양한 물리적 강우-유출모형이 개발되었으며 많은 연구들에 의해 유용성이 증명되었다. 그러나 메콩강 유역과 같이 물리적 데이터의 양적, 질적 신뢰도가 부족한 지역을 대상으로 하는 경우 모형의 기본적인 불확실성 외에 다양한 기초자료 및 매개변수의 결정 또는 추정에 의한 추가적인 불확실성이 포함된다. 본 연구에서는 물리적 강우-유출모형에 대한 대안으로 데이터 기반의 black-box 모형인 LSTM 모형을 이용하여 메콩강 본류 Kratie지점을 대상으로 강우-유출해석시스템을 구축하였다. 이후 기후변화시나리오를 적용하여 미래유출변화를 모의를 수행하였다. 도출된 결과는 물리적 강우-유출모형인 SWAT 모형의 유출해석결과의 비교를 수행하고 이를 통해 LSTM 모형의 적용성을 판단하였다. 관측유량 및 기온자료를 제외한 모형에서 요구되는 기초자료는 범용 입력자료를 이용하고 미래기간의 예측을 위해 편의보정 된 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 기후변화시나리오가 적용되었다. 두 모형의 Kratie 지점에 대한 미래 유출예측결과는 경향성 분석결과 두 모형 모두 시나리오 별 통계적으로 유의한 수준의 경향은 도출되지 않았으나 RCP 4.5 시나리오에 대비 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 연평균 유량의 변동성이 크게 나타나는 것으로 분석되는 등 결과의 유사성을 보이고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이를 통해 LSTM 모형에 의한 유출예측결과가 단순 시계열 변화에 따른 유출변화 모의에 있어서 SWAT의 결과에 비해 높은 재현성을 보이는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구와 같이 유출량의 시 계열 변화만을 필요로 하는 경우 적은 데이터만으로 비교적 정확한 결과를 도출하는 LSTM 모형은 매우 효과적으로 사용될 수 있다고 판단된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.5
• /
• pp.267-275
• /
• 2013

This study projected the future ocean wave climate changes based on global climate change scenario using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO according to the emission scenarios and using regional wave model. Annual mean significant wave height (SWH) is linked closely to annual mean wind speed during the forthcoming 21st Century. Because annual mean speed decreased in the western North Pacific, annual mean SWH is projected to decrease in the future. The annual mean SWH decreases for the last 30 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1971-2000 are 2~7% for RCP4.5 and 4~11% for RCP8.5, respectively. Also, extreme SWH and wind speed are projected to decrease in the future. In terms of seasonal mean, winter extreme SWH shows similar trend with annual extreme SWH; however, that of summer shows large increasing tendency compared with current climate in the western North Pacific. Therefore, typhoon intensity in the future might be more severe in the future climate.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2017.05a
• /
• pp.343-343
• /
• 2017

기후변화로 인하여 평균 기온 및 강수량이 증가하고 이에 따라 홍수의 발생 빈도가 증가한다. 기후변화에 따른 미래 예측은 기후변화 시나리오로 분석하고 있으며, 현재 사용하는 기후변화 시나리오는 2013년에 발간된 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5차 평가보고서(AR5)에서 2007년에 발간된 IPCC 4차 평가보고서(AR4)에 사용한 SRES(Special Report on Emission Scenario) 온실가스 시나리오를 대신하여 대표농도 경로 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)를 사용한다. 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 기온 상승률 및 강수량의 증가량, 극한 강우사상의 발생 빈도 및 발생 정도가 다르게 결정되며, 이에 따라 IPCC에서 제시하는 기후변화 취약성 평가 이론의 민감도 지수가 시나리오에 따라 증가하는 정도가 다르게 산정된다. 민감도 지수의 증가는 홍수위험지수의 증가로 이어지며, 이에 따라 치수대책 변화를 분석하여 치수안전도 개선 및 수재해에 의한 위험을 대비할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 연평균강수량, 일최대강수량과 같은 극치 강수량과 치수 대책 변화 및 치수대책변수의 현황, 치수대책변수의 개선가능범위 분석을 통한 치수안전도 개선 효과를 분석하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.55 no.11
• /
• pp.877-886
• /
• 2022

This study was carried out to analyze how the flow and water quality of the Sangsa Lake (juam control basin) change according to future climate change and what countermeasures are needed. Aquatic Ecosystem Model) was used in conjunction. As climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of AR5 (5th Assessment Report) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. For the climate change scenario, detailed data on the Sangsa Lake basin were used by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and after being evaluated as a correction and verification process for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021, the present, 2025-2036, 2045- The summer period from June to August and the winter period from December to February were analyzed separately for each year by dividing it into 2056 and 2075-2086. RCP 8.5 was higher than RCP 4.5 as an arithmetic mean for the flow rate of the watershed of the superior lake for the entire simulation period, and TN and TP also showed a tendency to be higher at RCP 4.5. However, in RCP 8.5, the outflow of pollutants decreased during the dry season and the outflow of pollutants increased during the summer, indicating that the annual pollutant outflow was concentrated during the flood season, and it is analyzed that countermeasures are needed.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.595-607
• /
• 2013

In this study we estimated ETCCDI and frequency based precipitation using observed precipitation and precipitation from Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios for 58 weather stations which have the recorded data more than 30 years. We tried to eliminate the bias by Quantile Mapping and tested for outliers of simulated data under climate change scenario. Then we estimated ETCCDI related to precipitation and frequency based precipitation for the future. In addition to this study examined the changes of frequency based precipitation for the future target periods. According to the result, dry days will be increased in Korean Peninsula in the 2090s. Also it showed that the number of heavy precipitation day more than 80mm/day tends to be increased in 3~7% in the future. The precipitation of 24-hour duration under climate change will be increased by 17.7% for 80-year frequency, 18.2% for 100-year frequency and 19.6% for 200-year frequency in 2090s. In the 21st century, the damage caused by natural disasters is expected to be increased due to increase of precipitation and the change of runoff characteristics under climate change. Therefore, the proposed ETCCDI and precipitation frequency under climate change are expected to be used for the future natural disaster plan.