• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk analysis

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Quantitative Fire Risk Assesment for the Subway Platform Types (지하철 승강장 형식에 따른 정량적 화재 위험성 평가)

  • Rie, Dong-Ho;Kim, Ha-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.21 no.6 s.78
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2006
  • Subway platform is divided into Side-platform type and Center-platform type. In this study does quantitative fire risk assesment of subway platform types in numerical analysis by using CFD model. From the result of this study, 1) All exhaust mode was low-end result it seems most fire risk at Side-platform station. 2) All exhaust mode was low-end result it seems most fire risk at Center-Platform station. 3) When comparing same type exhaust mode of Side-platform and Center-platform that last thing was visible $9.1{\sim}72.34%$ low-end fire risk. Center-platform is more opera-tive than Side-platform that reduce fire risk when that was same dimension and external environment. Designer look upon a fire characteristic of subway platform types when he make smoke control air volume and platform area design.

Evaluation of Best Value for Safety Facilities on Highway Using Risk-based VE Approach - A Case Study of Median Barrier - (위험도기반 가치공학적 기법을 적용한 고속도로 교통안전시설 최고가치평가 : 중앙분리대 적용사레를 중심으로)

  • Ji, Dong-Han;O, Young-Tae;Choi, Hyun-Ho;Kim, Sung-Hun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2008
  • Since the concerns for safety of highway traffic safety facilities inherent in various environmental risk is increased, systematic performance, cost, and effect analysis process is needed for this. In case of median barrier among various traffic safety facilities, quantitative risk assessment is inevitable because it has lots of direct/indirect risk factors. Thus, this study suggests an advanced VE(Value Engineering) approach incorporating quantitative risk analysis. For the applicability, suggested VE approach considering alternative 1(140cm) and 2(127cm) is applied to median barrier in fields. Also, major improvement objects are extracted from governing factors of cost and performance based on functional analysis. It is concluded that the proposed risk assessment methodology will provide rational and practical solutions for best value and the approach could effectively applied for various traffic safety facilities by slight modification of suggest process.

A Quantitative Collision Probability Analysis in Port Waterway (항만수로의 정량적인 충돌확률 분석)

  • Jeong, Jung-Sik;Kim, Kwang-Il;Park, Gyei-Kark
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.373-378
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    • 2012
  • In terms of the maritime accident prevention, risk analysis at targeted warterways is important for planning safety waterways. This paper analyzes the maritime accidents probability in the Mokpo waterways, South Korea, based on the IWRAP(IALA Waterway Risk Assessment) of the quantitative accident probability tool. Vessel collision probability cate is calculated by vessels meeting direction, using IWRAP. This paper contribute to advance improvement of vessel traffic service by VTS sector providing vessel fairway risk data.

Risk Analysis System in Fuzzy Set Theory (퍼지 집합론을 이용한 위험분석 시스템)

  • 홍상우
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.13 no.21
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 1990
  • An assessment of risk in industrial and urban environments is essential in the prevention of accident and in the analysis of situations which are hazardous to public health and safety. The risk imposed by a particular hazard increases with the likelihood of occurence of the event, the exposure and the possible consequence of that event. In a traditional approach, the calculation of a quantitative value of risk is usually based on an assignment of numerical values of each of the risk factors. Then the product of the values of likelihood, exposure and consequences called risk score is derived. However vagueness and imprecision in mathematical quantification of risk are equated with fuzziness rather than randomness. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the area of systems safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique based on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

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A Study for Influence Measurement of Error by Quantitative Analysis (정량적 분석에 의한 오류의 영향 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eun-Ser
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2012
  • There are many problems that cause the process improvement of software and hardware, personality errors during software development. This paper propose the quantitative analysis of error that removes and manages the system problems as well.

A Study on Implementation of Risk Based Inspection Procedures to a Petrochemical Plant (RBI 절차의 석유화학 플랜트 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jung-Soo;Shim, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Ji-Yoon;Yoon, Kee-Bong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.416-423
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    • 2003
  • During the last ten years, the need has been increased for reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments and ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. RBI (Risk Based Inspection) methodology is one of the most promising technologies satisfying the need in the field of integrity management. In this study, a user-friendly software, realRBl for RBI based on the API 581 code was developed. This software has modules for evaluating qualitative and semi-quantitative risk level, analyzing quantitative risks using the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, and assessing the likelihood of failure. A quantitative analysis was performed for 16 columns in a domestic NCC (Naphtha Cracking Center) plant whose operating time reaches about 12 years. Each column was considered as two equipment parts by dividing into top and bottom. Generic column failure frequencies were adjusted based on likelihood data. After determining release rate, release duration and release mass for each failure scenario, flammable/explosive and toxic consequences were assessed. Current risks for 32 equipment parts were evaluated and risk based prioritization were determined as a final result.

Market Expansion Strategies for Small or Medium-sized Construction Companies by Developing Quantitative Risk Assessment Model

  • Yoo, Jinhyuk;Koh, Seungyoon;Seo, Induck;Cha, Heesung
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.742-743
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    • 2015
  • Korean construction industry has developed with national economy growth for a couple of decades. However, because of slump of real estate, the domestic construction industry was intimidated. In this situation, many construction company has no choice but to go abroad to find construction projects. However, almost small or medium-sized construction companies are very hard to operate their business because they have small funding ability and weak labor power. Therefore, this study aims to propose an assessment tool through analyzing risk factors of overseas construction projects for small or medium-sized companies by examining preceding research and interviewing industry experts. Weights of the risk factors are determined through the surveys of the industry practitioners. All of the data is configured into the assessment tool and this converts the quantitative information which leads to the optimal of strategies choice. This paper provides a quantitative measurement of possible performance and detailed assessment of each itemized risk factors. This assessment tool is qualified for industry experts so that it can safely be applied to the future projects. Ultimately, many small or medium sized construction companies will benefit from the tool proposed in this study to examine the potential of the overseas market expansion.

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Risk Analysis Method Applied to Train Control Systems for Safety Assurance (열차제어시스템 안전성 확보를 위한 위험도 분석 방법 적용)

  • Jo, Hyun-Jeong;Hwang, Jong-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.71-76
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    • 2007
  • Failures of equipments for train control systems are linked directly to extensive damages of human lives or financial losses from the increasing uses of train control equipments utilizing computers. Then safety activities for assuring safety and reliability are needed during the system life-cycle. Risk analysis is important phase to increase safety from determining the risk presented by the identified hazard. In this paper, we investigated several methods for risk estimation of safety activities, and then we drew a comparison between original methods to suggest optimized one in the application to train control systems. In the result of the comparison, we had plan to propose the risk analysis method called Best-Practice(BP) risk method combining advantages of the qualitative and the quantitative analysis. In addition, we attempted to apply the BP-risk method to domestic train control systems handling in Korea.

Two-layer Investment Decision-making Using Knowledge about Investor′s Risk-preference: Model and Empirical Testing.

  • Won, Chaehwan;Kim, Chulsoo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2004
  • There have been many studies to build a model that can help investors construct optimal portfolio. Most of the previous models, however, are based upon the path-breaking Markowitz model (1959) which is a quantitative model. One of the most important problems with that kind of quantitative model is that, in reality, most of the investors use not only quantitative, but also qualitative information when they select their optimal portfolio. Since collecting both types of information from the markets are time consuming and expensive, making a set of target assets smaller, without suffering heavy loss in the rate of return, would attract investors. To extract only desired assets among all available assets, we need knowledge that identifies investors' preference for the risk of the assets. This study suggests two-layer decision-making rules capable of identifying an investor's risk preference and an architecture applying them to a quantitative portfolio model based on risk and expected return. Our knowledge-based portfolio system is to build an investor's preference-oriented portfolio. The empirical tests using the data from Korean capital markets show the results that our model contributes significantly to the construction of a better portfolio in the perspective of an investor's benefit/cost ratio than that produced by the existing portfolio models.

Fire and Explosion Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessment on LNG Test Plant (LNG 시험 플랜트의 정량적 위해도 평가를 위한 화재 및 폭발사고 해석)

  • Han, Yong Shik;Kim, Myungbae;Do, Kyu Hyung;Kim, Tae Hoon;Choi, Byungil
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2015
  • Fire and explosion analysis are performed for the quantitative risk assessment on the LNG test plant. From the analysis for a case of fire due to large leakage of LNG from the tank, it is obtained that loss of lives can be occurred within the radius of 60 m from the fire origin. Specially, wind can extend the extent of damage. Because the LNG test plant is not enclosed, the explosion overpressure is less than 6 kPa and the explosion has little effect on the integrity of the LNG test plant.