• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.85-99
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• 1995

Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권12호
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• pp.4531-4544
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• 2021

Because the traditional network information security vulnerability risk assessment method does not set the weight, it is easy for security personnel to fail to evaluate the value of information security vulnerability risk according to the calculation value of network centrality, resulting in poor evaluation effect. Therefore, based on the network security data element feature system, this study designed a quantitative assessment method of network information security vulnerability detection risk under single transmission state. In the case of single transmission state, the multi-dimensional analysis of network information security vulnerability is carried out by using the analysis model. On this basis, the weight is set, and the intrinsic attribute value of information security vulnerability is quantified by using the qualitative method. In order to comprehensively evaluate information security vulnerability, the efficacy coefficient method is used to transform information security vulnerability associated risk, and the information security vulnerability risk value is obtained, so as to realize the quantitative evaluation of network information security vulnerability detection under single transmission state. The calculated values of network centrality of the traditional method and the proposed method are tested respectively, and the evaluation of the two methods is evaluated according to the calculated results. The experimental results show that the proposed method can be used to calculate the network centrality value in the complex information security vulnerability space network, and the output evaluation result has a high signal-to-noise ratio, and the evaluation effect is obviously better than the traditional method.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제52권6호
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• pp.750-754
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• 2014

초고농도 과산화수소 제조를 위한 투과증발 공정의 정량적 위험성 분석을 수행하였다. 잠재적 주요 사고는 분해반응에 따른 폭발 및 화재이며 실험실 규모일 때 사고결과는 카테고리 3에 속하는 것으로 판단된다. 대상공정에서 분해반응이 일어나는 과정을 사건트리 형태로 모델링하고 사고원인들의 확률함수를 유사사건 발생빈도 자료를 근거로 설정하였다. 구축된 모델을 사용하여 사고율을 계산한 결과, 수용 가능한 위험수준, 즉 사고빈도가 $10^{-4}/yr$ 이하가 되려면 추가 안전장치가 필요한 것으로 파악되었다. 이를 위해 방호계층분석을 적용한 결과, 촉매반응을 막기 위한 본질적 안전설계, 과열을 막기 위한 SIF (safety instrumented function), 그리고 분해반응이 일어나더라도 폭발로 이어지지는 것을 막는 릴리프 시스템이 요구되었다. 제안된 방법은 과산화수소 농축을 포함한 다양한 화학공정의 안전관리시스템 개발에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.62-69
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• 1999

The quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis by accident scenario in the process of EPS(Expendable Poly Stylene) reaction process are conducted. And the decision making process is studied followed by selecting various alternatives to safety management and facility improvement. The result are as follows; 1) The object of decision making through comprehensive risk assessment are the scenario which can cause four major accident, which are made by process analysis, work analysis and hazard identification. 2) Frequency analysis of ETA, FTA, HRA and consequence analysis of accident to each have been conducted. The each frequency values are yielded $9.2{\times}10_{-5}/yr$ to scenarios $1, 8.2{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ to scenario 2, $4.5{\times}10^{-6}/yr$ scenario 3 and $1.8{\times}10^{-7}/yr$ to scenario 4. The each scenarios have been conducted consequence analysis. 3) The calculated values have been obtained 4.00 to scenario 1, 3.25 to scenario 2, 2.43 to scenario 3 and 1.34 to scenario 4, as the weight value had been applied to the quantitative and normalized criteria of all components. As a risk criteria, scenario 1 have been selected, which is the most dangerous scenario as a result of ranking the scenario. 4) According to the importance of FTA and contribute to scenario 1, the cost-benefit values are yielded $8.05\times10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(Al), $1.55{\times}10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(A2) and $2.32{\times}10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(A3). As a result of final alternative(Al) has been selected, which is the most optimized alternative.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.220-225
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• 2013

항구 등 선박교통이 밀집된 구역에서 선박의 사고는 빈번하게 발생한다. 해양사고는 한번 발생하면 대형사고로 이어질 확률이 높으므로, 철저한 해상교통관리가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 실 해역의 통계적인 해상교통정보와 실시간 선박 통항분포를 바탕으로 항로 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 시뮬레이터를 개발하고자 한다. 항로 위험도 평가 시뮬레이터는 항로정보 입력부, 통항분포 분석부, 알고리즘 실행부로 구성하였다. 또한 완도해역의 해상교통정보를 시뮬레이터에 적용하여 항로의 정량적인 항로 위험도를 산출하고자 한다.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.23-28
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• 2007

정량적 원인분석이 가능한 위험기반검사(KS-RBI) 프로그램을 사용하여 화학설비의 사고 피해범위를 산출하고, 일반적인 정량적 위험성 평가를 수행하는 프로그램인 K-CARM에서 얻은 결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과, KS-RBI 프로그램에 의해 산출한 사고피해 크기는 K-CARM의 결과와 비교적 잘 일치하여 KS-RBI 프로그램이 정량적 위험성 평가에 적극 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 또한 사업장에서는 가중평균에 의한 사고 피해영역을 활용함으로써 현실성 있는 피해완화조치와 비상조치계획을 수립할 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 7th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Summit Forum on Sustainable Construction and Management
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• pp.328-331
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to derive construction-phase risk factors in SMEs' advance into overseas plant construction projects. For this, construction-phase risk factors were investigated on the basis of the analysis of Korean construction companies, overseas plant industry-related research institutes, and overseas data. In addition, major risk factors were derived from the investigated construction-phase risk factors, and quantitative risk factors and qualitative risk factors were analyzed and derived from these major risk factors, by the use of three rounds of the Delphi analysis.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.18-23
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• 2010

이 논문에서는 실제 설치예정인 도시가스 고압배관에 대하여 정량적 위험성 평가를 실시하고, 평가 결과 위험이 허용영역 밖에 위치하는 경우에는 위험경감조치를 도출하였다. 또한, 도출한 위험경감조치별 위험감소율을 계산하였다. 정량적 위험성 평가결과, 복사열에 의한 사고피해거리는 바람의 속도와 대기안정도에 따라 크게 좌우됨을 알 수 있었다. 위험감소율이 가장 큰 조치는 배관의 부식관리, MOV 설치 및 타공사로 인한 배관손상방지조치를 모두 이행하도록 하는 10번 조치로서 75%의 위험감소효과가 있었다.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.505-513
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• 2023

Hydrogen infrastructure is expanding. High-capacity hydrogen refueling stations offer advantages because they can refuel a variety of light and heavy-duty vehicles, and multi-port refueling technology is developing to reduce charging time for heavy-duty vehicles. In this study, we suggest directions to lower the risk by analyzing the risk factors for each process involved in the installation of a high-capacity multi-port hydrogen refueling station in Changwon city. We conducted both qualitative and quantitative risk assessments of the equipment to evaluate the station. A hazard and operability study was performed for qualitative risk assessment, and PHAST/SAFETI were used for quantitative risk assessment. Quantitative risk assessment was used to calculate the consequence analysis of the facility to ensure secure design prior to station development and to predict individual and societal risks in various scenarios. As a result, the station's risk level was determined to be as low as reasonably practicable.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.635-641
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• 2017

In this study, the components of packaged hydrogen filling station were analyzed and risk factors were examined. Risk scenarios were constructed and quantitative risk assessments were conducted through a general risk assessment program (phast/safeti 7.2). Through the risk assessment, the range of damage according to accident scenarios and the ranking that affects the damage according to the risk factors are listed, and scope of damage and countermeasures for risk reduction are provided. The quantitative risk assessment result of the packaged hydrogen filling station through this task will be used as the basic data for improving the safety of the packaged filling system and preparing safety standards.