• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk

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Measuring the Confidence of Human Disaster Risk Case based on Text Mining (텍스트마이닝 기반의 인적재난사고사례 신뢰도 측정연구)

  • Lee, Young-Jai;Lee, Sung-Soo
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.63-79
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    • 2011
  • Deducting the risk level of infrastructure and buildings based on past human disaster risk cases and implementing prevention measures are important activities for disaster prevention. The object of this study is to measure the confidence to proceed quantitative analysis of various disaster risk cases through text mining methodology. Indeed, by examining confidence calculation process and method, this study suggests also a basic quantitative framework. The framework to measure the confidence is composed into four stages. First step describes correlation by categorizing basic elements based on human disaster ontology. Secondly, terms and cases of Term-Document Matrix will be created and the frequency of certain cases and terms will be quantified, the correlation value will be added to the missing values. In the third stage, association rules will be created according to the basic elements of human disaster risk cases. Lastly, the confidence value of disaster risk cases will be measured through association rules. This kind of confidence value will become a key element when deciding a risk level of a new disaster risk, followed up by preventive measures. Through collection of human disaster risk cases related to road infrastructure, this study will demonstrate a case where the four steps of the quantitative framework and process had been actually used for verification.

A Study on Quantitative Software Risk Management Methodology applied Risk Analysis Model (위험분석 모델을 적용한 정량적인 소프트웨어 위험관리 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Eom, Jung Ho;Lee, Dong Young;Chung, Tai M.
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2009
  • In the paper, we proposed the systematical and quantitative software risk management methodology based on risk analysis model. A software risk management consists of the basic risk management method(BRIMM) and the detailed risk management method(DRIMM). BRIMM is applied to unimportant phases or the phase which also the risk factor does not heavily influence to project. DRIMM is used from the phase which influences highly in project success or the phase where the risk factor is many. Fulfilling risk management combined two methods, we can reduce project's budget, term and resource's usage, and prevent risk with the optimum measures obtained by the exact risk analysis.

Quantitative Approaches in Use to Assess Cancer Risk

  • Anderson Elizabeth L.
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02a
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    • pp.450-468
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    • 1994
  • Scientists have long used conventional toxicological methods to establish 'safe levels of exposure' for chemicals presumed to have threshold health effects or doses below which significant effects are unlikely to occur. These same methods cannot be used to establish safe levels of exposure for non-threshold pollutants. such as carcinogens. Therefore. Federal regulatory agencies in the United States are using risk assessment methods to provide information for public health policy decisions concerning increases in risk associated with increases in exposure to carcinogenic and other non-threshold pollutants. Acceptable exposure/risk levels are decided by policymakers who consider descriptions and estimates of risks together with social and economic benefits from the uses of the chemical. 1bis paper focuses on the development of quantitative risk assessment approaches by Federal regulatory agencies in the United States, and identifies the mathematical models currently being used for risk extrapolation. including their inherent uncertainties. The uncertainties and limitations of these methods have led some scientists to question the utility of quantitative risk extrapolation. The experience of the; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). as summarized in this paper. can provide a realistic basis for evaluating the pros and cons. Finally. shortcomings in current risk assessment methods and their use in policy decisions are explored. and areas for possible improvement. given current scientific knowledge. are identified.

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Development of RBI Procedures and Implementation of a Software Based on API Code (III) - Quantitative Approach (API 기준에 근거한 RBI 절차 개발 및 소프트웨어의 구현 (III) - 정량적 접근법 -)

  • 송정수;심상훈;최송천;윤기봉
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2003
  • During the last decade, effort has been made f3r reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments and ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. Hence, it was required to develop advanced methods which meet this need. RBI(Risk Based Inspection) methodology is one of the most promising technology satisfying the requirements in the field of integrity management. In this study, a quantitative assessment algorithm fir RBI based on the API 581 code was reconstructed for developing an RBI software. The user-friendly realRBI software is developed with a module for evaluating quantitative risk md financial risk using the potential consequence and the likelihood. Also, inspection planning module for inspection time and inspection method are included in it.

Quantitative Risk Assessment in Major Smartphone Operating Systems in Asian Countries

  • Joh, HyunChul
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.1494-1502
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    • 2014
  • Since smartphones are utilized in the ranges from personal usages to governmental data exchanges, known but not patched vulnerabilities in smartphone operating systems are considered as major threats to the public. To minimize potential security breaches on smartphones, it is necessary to estimate possible security threats. So far, there have been numerous studies conducted to evaluate the security risks caused by mobile devices qualitatively, but there are few quantitative manners. For a large scale risk evaluation, a qualitative assessment is a never ending task. In this paper, we try to calculate relative risk levels triggered by software vulnerabilities from unsecured smartphone operating systems (Android and iOS) among 51 Asian countries. The proposed method combines widely accepted risk representation in both theory and industrial fields. When policy makers need to make a strategic decision on mobile security related agendas, they might find the presented approach useful.

A Study on the Risk Management Tools against Infectious Diseases in the Port-Utilizing Semi-Quantitative Bow-Tie Method

  • Lim, Kukhwan;Oh, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 2022
  • Due to the global epidemic of infectious diseases, it has become important for all industries to respond to the risk of infectious diseases. Ports in each country are also responding to the risk of infectious diseases, but the occurrence of infectious diseases in ports of various countries is causing a lot of damage to the logistics of ports. Korea is in the same situation, and cases of infectious diseases in ports are steadily being announced. Therefore, this paper conducted semi-quantitative Bow-Tie risk assessment by substituting measures to cope with infectious disease risks in Korean ports into actual cases of port infectious diseases in Korea, deriving improvements and suggesting directions. As a result, it was concluded that it was necessary to standardize some of the countermeasures against infectious diseases and develop more countermeasures.

Management Approach Based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (정량적 리스크 평가를 기초로 한 경영관리)

  • Jung, Won
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.167-179
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    • 2008
  • System risk is the totality of all safety risks to customers, employees, suppliers, and other third parties that arise due to system operations. To assess the risk of major hazards with the potential to cause fatality to the customers and other members of the public, quantitative risk assessment methodologies are used. This paper presents the general principles of risk based management approach to improve the safety of high risk systems such as aviation, railway, and nuclear power plants. For the suitable risk control arrangement, case studies of acceptable risk level, risk rating matrix, and safety management philosophy are presented.

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A study on quantitative risk assessment for railway Tunnel fire (철도터널에서 차량화재시 정량적 위험도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Ji-Oh;Nam, Chang-Ho;Jo, Hyeong-Je;Kim, Jong-Won
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2010
  • As we learned in Daegu subway fire accident, fire in the railway tunnel is prone to develop to large disaster due to the limitation of smoke control and smoke exhaust. In railway tunnel, in order to ensure fire safety, fire prevention and fighting systems are installed by quantitative risk assessment results. Therefore, in this research, developed the program to establish quantitative risk assessment and suggested quantitative safety assessment method including fire scenarios in railway tunnel, fire and evacuation analysis model, fatality estimate model and societal risk criteria. Moreover, this method applys to plan preventing disaster for Honam high speed railway tunnel. As results, we presented the proper distance of escape route and societal risk criteria.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus foodborne illness of sea squirt (Halocynthia roretzi) in South Korea

  • Kang, Joohyun;Lee, Yewon;Choi, Yukyung;Kim, Sejeong;Ha, Jimyeong;Oh, Hyemin;Kim, Yujin;Seo, Yeongeun;Park, Eunyoung;Rhee, Min Suk;Lee, Heeyoung;Yoon, Yohan
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.78-88
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    • 2021
  • The annual consumption of fishery products, particularly sea squirt (Halocynthia roretzi), per person has steadily increased in South Korea. However, the quantitative risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus following intake of sea squirt has not been analyzed. This study focuses on quantitative predictions of the probability of consuming sea squirt and getting of V. parahaemolyticus foodborne illness. The prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus in sea squirt was evaluated, and the time spent by sea squirt in transportation vehicles, market displays, and home refrigerators, in addition to the temperature of each of these, were recorded. The data were fitted to the @RISK program to obtain a probability distribution. Predictive models were developed to determine the fate of V. parahaemolyticus under distribution conditions. A simulation model was prepared based on experimental data, and a dose-response model for V. parahaemolyticus was prepared using data from literature to estimate infection risk. V. parahaemolyticus contamination was detected in 6 of 35 (17.1%) sea squirt samples. The daily consumption quantity of sea squirt was 62.14 g per person, and the consumption frequency was 0.28%. The average probability of V. parahaemolyticus foodborne illness following sea squirt consumption per person per day was 4.03 × 10-9. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of foodborne illness caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus following sea squirt consumption in South Korea.

Case Studies of Risk Assessment in Analyzing Risks Associated with MSDS

  • Kim, Woo Jin;Jeong, Byung Yong
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.153-158
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    • 2013
  • Objective: This study aims to suggest different approaches in analyzing risks associated with musculoskeletal disorders (MSDS) for risk assessment. Background: Upon concluding that the changes in the industrial environments have made it hard to regulate diverse risk factors, the government has implemented a policy for risk assessment. Method: This study has proposed a method, creating programs using Excel that perform qualitative or quantitative analysis, for evaluating risk factors in risk assessments and has applied this in manufacture and service industries. Results: To verify the validity of the developed program, risk assessment has been performed on restaurant chefs as an example. For quantitative evaluation, the study has suggested approaches using the results for REBA evaluation and the analysis report on the work scenes of a fitting-shop in a shipbuilding industry. Application: Constructing and adapting a system using Excel in evaluating risk factors for risk assessments as this study suggests, is expected to contribute to revitalizing risk assessments.