• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantile regression

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Is It Possible to Achieve IMO Carbon Emission Reduction Targets at the Current Pace of Technological Progress?

  • Choi, Gun-Woo;Yun, Heesung;Hwang, Soo-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The primary purpose of this study is to verify whether the target set out by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for reducing carbon emissions from ships can be achieved by quantitatively analyzing the trends in technological advances of fuel oil consumption in the container shipping market. To achieve this purpose, several scenarios are designed considering various options such as eco-friendly fuels, low-speed operation, and the growth in ship size. Design/methodology - The vessel size and speed used in prior studies are utilized to estimate the fuel oil consumption of container ships and the pace of technological progress and Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) regulations are added. A database of 5,260 container ships, as of 2019, is used for multiple linear regression and quantile regression analyses. Findings - The fuel oil consumption of vessels is predominantly affected by their speed, followed by their size, and the annual technological progress is estimated to be 0.57%. As the quantile increases, the influence of ship size and pace of technological progress increases, while the influence of speed and coefficient of EEDI variables decreases. Originality/value - The conservative estimation of carbon emission drawn by a quantitative analysis of the technological progress concerning the fuel efficiency of container vessels shows that it is not possible to achieve IMO targets. Therefore, innovative efforts beyond the current scope of technological progress are required.

Estimating China's Capital Flows-at-risk: The Case of Potential US Financial Sanctions

  • DAEHEE, JEONG
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.43-78
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    • 2022
  • The arena of strategic competition between the US and China is expandable from international politics, trade and commerce to finance. What would happen if financial sanctions against China are imposed by the US? Would US financial sanctions lead to a sudden outflow of foreign capital and a liquidity crisis in China? We try to address these questions by estimating China's capital flows-at-risk with the CDS premium on Chinese sovereign funds. We follow Gelos et al. (2019) in setting up a quantile regression model from which China's foreign capital flow-at-risks are estimated. Based on our analysis of China's monthly capital flow data, we find that a rise in the CDS premium has statistically significant negative impacts on China's foreign capital flows-at-risk, mainly in banking flows. However, the analysis also found that due to favorable global conditions, an increase in the CDS premium is unlikely to trigger a shift to a sudden outflow of foreign capital at the moment. Meanwhile, this study found no statistically significant correlation between Korea's capital flows-at-risk and the CDS premium, suggesting that the negative impact of US financial sanctions on China would not increase the probability of capital flight from Korea in a significant manner.

ROBUST TEST BASED ON NONLINEAR REGRESSION QUANTILE ESTIMATORS

  • CHOI, SEUNG-HOE;KIM, KYUNG-JOONG;LEE, MYUNG-SOOK
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.145-159
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    • 2005
  • In this paper we consider the problem of testing statistical hypotheses for unknown parameters in nonlinear regression models and propose three asymptotically equivalent tests based on regression quantiles estimators, which are Wald test, Lagrange Multiplier test and Likelihood Ratio test. We also derive the asymptotic distributions of the three test statistics both under the null hypotheses and under a sequence of local alternatives and verify that the asymptotic relative efficiency of the proposed test statistics with classical test based on least squares depends on the error distributions of the regression models. We give some examples to illustrate that the test based on the regression quantiles estimators performs better than the test based on the least squares estimators of the least absolute deviation estimators when the disturbance has asymmetric and heavy-tailed distribution.

Asymptotic Properties of Regression Quanties Estimators in Nonlinear Models (비선형최소분위추정량의 점근적 성질)

  • Choi, Seung-Hoe;Kim, Tae-Soo;Park, Kyung-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we consider the Regression Quantiles Estimators in nonlinear regression models. This paper provides the sufficient conditions for strong consistency and asymptotic normality of proposed estimation and drives asymptotic relative efficiency of proposed estimatiors with least square estimation. We give some examples and results of Monte Carlo simulation to compare least square and regression quantile estimators.

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Characteristics and Determinants of Household Electricity Consumption for Different Levels of Electricity Use in Korea (국내 가구의 전력소비 수준에 따른 특성 및 결정요인)

  • Kim, Yong-Rae;Kim, Min-Jeong
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.66 no.7
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    • pp.1025-1031
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    • 2017
  • This study compares the characteristics and the determinants of household electricity consumption for low electricity consuming and high electricity consuming households. The data are drawn from a household energy consumption sample survey by Korea Energy Economics Institute in 2015. The results show the differences in socio-demographic, dwelling, and electricity consumption characteristics between two households. Next, the factors affecting the household's electricity consumption are investigated. Common factor affecting the electricity consumption function is only the number of electrical appliances. There are also the differences in major determinants of the household's electricity consumption functions for two households. The results of this study would be useful for understanding socio-demographic, dwelling, and electricity consumption characteristics of low electricity consuming and high electricity consuming households.

Categorical Financial Analyses on the Level of Corporate Cash Reserves for the Korean Chaebol Firms in the Post-Era of the Global Financial Crisis (국제금융위기 이후 한국 재벌기업들의 현금유보 수준에 대한 계층별 재무적 특성요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.729-739
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    • 2016
  • The primary objective of implementing the study was to further investigate any pronounced financial components affecting the level of cash retention for the Korean chaebol firms. The research was framed to test for two hypotheses on the cash savings with utilizing the chaebol firms during the post-era of the global financial turmoil (from 2009 to 2013). In the first hypothesis test, any significant explanatory variables relative to the cash holdings, were identified in each corresponding category of the conditional quantile regression (CQR) model, while multilogistic regression analysis was performed to discriminate relevant financial factors in each pair of classes consisting of the chaebol firms. Concerning the results, liquidity, agency costs, and cash conversion cycle were found to be statistically significant in the majority of classified categories in the former test and liquidy, firm size, and dividend yield, also showed discriminating powers in each pair of categorical for the firms in the latter test.

EVALUATION OF PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHODS FOR NONLINEAR TIME SERIES REGRESSION MODELS

  • Kim, Tae-Soo;Ahn, Jung-Ho
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.27 no.1_2
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    • pp.315-326
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    • 2009
  • The unknown parameters in regression models are usually estimated by using various existing methods. There are several existing methods, such as the least squares method, which is the most common one, the least absolute deviation method, the regression quantile method, and the asymmetric least squares method. For the nonlinear time series regression models, which do not satisfy the general conditions, we will compare them in two ways: 1) a theoretical comparison in the asymptotic sense and 2) an empirical comparison using Monte Carlo simulation for a small sample size.

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Impacts of Core Elements of ISO26000 using Quantile Regression Analysis on Organizational Trust of Casino Industry (분위수 회귀분석을 이용한 ISO26000의 핵심요소가 카지노기업의 조직신뢰에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hwa-Yong;Kim, Sang-Hyuck
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.173-194
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study drew the core elements of ISO26000 by analyzing the elements suitable to the characteristics of casino companies, and examined the influence of the core elements of ISO26000 on organizational trust following the level of organizational trust of employees. As a result of the factor analysis, among the 7 measurement items of ISO26000, improvement of governance and fair operating practices were simplified into one factor and thus 6 factors were used for empirical analysis. Therefore, multiple regression analysis using least square method was conducted to examine the impacts of the 6 elements. As a result, 5 variables excluding human rights had significant impacts on the organizational trust. Concretely, the 5 core elements of ISO26000 (labor practices, governance and fair operation, consumer issues, environment and community social and economic development) had significant impact on organization trust in order. In addition, the results of quantile regression analysis show the core elements of ISO26000 had different impacts on organizational trust depending on the level of organizational trust of employees.

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Generalized nonlinear percentile regression using asymmetric maximum likelihood estimation

  • Lee, Juhee;Kim, Young Min
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.627-641
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    • 2021
  • An asymmetric least squares estimation method has been employed to estimate linear models for percentile regression. An asymmetric maximum likelihood estimation (AMLE) has been developed for the estimation of Poisson percentile linear models. In this study, we propose generalized nonlinear percentile regression using the AMLE, and the use of the parametric bootstrap method to obtain confidence intervals for the estimates of parameters of interest and smoothing functions of estimates. We consider three conditional distributions of response variables given covariates such as normal, exponential, and Poisson for three mean functions with one linear and two nonlinear models in the simulation studies. The proposed method provides reasonable estimates and confidence interval estimates of parameters, and comparable Monte Carlo asymptotic performance along with the sample size and quantiles. We illustrate applications of the proposed method using real-life data from chemical and radiation epidemiological studies.

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Technology Strategy and Technology Planning Capability on Firms' Profits (기업의 기술전략과 기술기획 역량이 경영성과에 미치는 영향 연구: 조직유연성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jongmin;Chung, Sunyang
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2015
  • Korea has increased R&D investment continuously for the improvement of global technological competencies. Korea ranked first in the world with 4.15 percent in the ratio of R&D investment to GDP. In particular, the private sector occupies a crucial position of technological innovations in Korea, constituting 78.5% of total R&D investment. However, quantitative growth strategy is no longer effective, so efforts to enhance efficiency by upgrading qualitative level are badly needed. This paper studied methods for improving firms' business performance. For this, it tried to empirically verify technology strategy and technology planning capability's influence factors on the improvement of business performance. The study showed that technology strategy and technology planning activities have positive effects on the improvement of business performance. And it was revealed that coordination flexibility contributes to the enhancement of business performance by positively controlling technology planning activities. The study performed sample survey on the companies with R&D centers and multiple regression analysis and quantile regression were used for the analysis.