• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantified risk analysis

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Risk Assessment of Dropped Object in Offshore Engineering through Quantified Risk Analysis (정량적 위험해석을 이용한 크레인 낙하물의 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Chul-Ho;Lee, Joo-Sung
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2017
  • Previous methods to evaluate the risk of dropped objects rely on personnel experience of the engineer or operator without analyzed data. However analyzing historical statistic data is the best approach to find the safest operation route and to achieve more reasonable and reliable calculation results. By counting the failure frequency and fatal accident rate the risk can be quantified, and so controlled or mitigated with best economical risk reducing measures. This analysis gives a crane operator with useful information for selecting the best crane operation route, and a designer with an estimation of risk level for the dropped objects from a safety point of view.

Risk Factors Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Tunnel Construction Project (터널 건설 프로젝트 리스크 분석 및 리스크 정량화 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Seung-A;Ahn, Sungjin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.363-364
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    • 2023
  • The tunnel construction projects is demanded more efficient risk management measures and loss forecasts to prepare for risk losses from an increase in the trend of tunnel construction. This study aims to analyze the risk factors that caused the loss of material in actual tunnel construction and to develop a quantified predictive loss model, based on the past loss record of tunnel construction projects.

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The Assessment of the Risk Index of Live-line Works on Distribution Line by the Accident Analysis (재해분석을 통한 배전선로 활선작업 공종별 위험지수 평가)

  • Choi, Seung-Dong;Hyun, So-Young;Han, Hyeong-Ju;Shin, Woon-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.8-14
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    • 2011
  • The live-line works are very dangerous because of direct contacts with the distribution line or neighboring contacts. So the purpose of this study is to identify the risk factor by accident occurrence form and accident case analysis, and to suggest the quantified risk index by risk occurrence frequency and risk strength analysis. And the risk index assessment is researched by accident cases analysis on work type. Accident cases of transmission distribution line are researched based on data of the Ministry of Employment and Labor in the last ten-year period (2000~2009). In results of this paper, high risk isn't always a priority of safety measures. Risk occurrence frequency and risk strength have to be considered according to detail work types, work methods and conditions of field work. And safety management measures must be planned according to risk occurrence frequency and risk strength.

Study on the Establishment of a Safety Allowance Level of Disastrous and Hazardous Facilities in Large Cities (대도시 위해.위험시설에 대한 안전도 수용기준 정립에 관한 연구)

  • 고재선;윤명오
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2001
  • In today's world, rise in the establishment of social infrastructure resulting from population saturation in large cities has led to more extensive and frequent use of chemical materials on facilities. A result, unexpected and serious accidents, hazards, contingencies and disasters are more prevalent than ever. Such phenomenon calls for more devoted and concerted efforts towards finding ways to reduce the safety hazards that are seen to take place more often than before with the increase in the number of facilities that are prone to bring disaster and hazard coupled with the conventional safety problems that continue to exist even today. In developed countries, such challenge is addressed by various appropriate countermeasures drawn up by local professional committees on industrial facilities, whose members conduct offsite and onsite evaluation un the potential industrial disasters and its seriousness and provide their advice thereof. Against this backdrop, this study aims at identifying a comprehensive safety allowance level (safety acceptable level) when imposing limitation on the development of conventional or new facilities, for the fur pose of establishing a safety allowance level of disastrous and dangerous facilities in Korea. This is done by assessing and applying the level of danger each individual is exposed to in a randomly selected region (disastrous and dangerous areas in Seoul) based on probability of quantitative hazards, as well as simulation and calculation methods which include: i) social disaster evaluation method applying Quantified Risk Assessment of Health & Safety Executive of UK and Matrix of Risk of Evaluated Sources of Hazard; ii) Fault Tree or Event Tree Analysis and etc.

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Deriving of Major Risk Factors for Planning Phase of u-City Project (U-City사업 계획단계에서의 핵심 리스크 요인 도출)

  • Kim, Ho-Ki;Kwon, Soon-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2011
  • u-City projects are different with the existing urban development projects progress via convergence with IT technology. Therefore, it inheres many risk factors more than the existing development projects as including more complexity and variety. The risk management system to systematically manage those risks which get identified and quantified is required. Especially, the planning phase that is appeared the various forms has a large effect on the success of the business. However, the management of risk factors remains in the passive form. So the problems on u-City project in the planning phase and risk factors of existing development business were analyzed for the continuous growth and the successful performance of u-City project, and those risk factors was identified and quantified by using statistical technique. In the results of it, the core risk factors were obtained through which way and the basis for the effective risk management in u-City business is provided.

No Association between Egg Intake and Prostate Cancer Risk: A Meta-analysis

  • Xie, Bo;He, Huadong
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.4677-4681
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    • 2012
  • Objective: Egg consumption has been suggested to increase the risk of colorectal and some other cancers. The present study summarized and quantified the current evidence relating dietary intake of eggs and prostate cancer. Materials and methods: Literature searches were conducted to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts published up to July 2012. Twenty manuscripts from nine cohort studies and 11 case-control studies were identified. Summary risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for case-control and cohort studies separately. Results: Neither the case-control not the cohort studies showed any association of prostate cancer incidence with egg consumption (case-control studies: odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.86-1.31; cohort studies: relative risk 0.97, 95% CI 0.97-1.07). The results were consistent in subgroup analysis. Furthermore, no association was observed between egg consumption and prostate cancer-specific mortality. Conclusions: Our analyses provided no evidence of a significant influence of egg consumption on prostate cancer incidence and mortality. However, more studies, particularly large prospective studies, are needed.

A multi-state model approach for risk analysis of pensions for married couples with consideration of mortality difference by marital status

  • Stefani, Anastasia;Kwon, Hyuk-Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.611-626
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    • 2021
  • Marital status has been identified as an important risk factor affecting adult mortality. Many studies have found that marriage has positive effects on mortality and increases life expectancy. Since most pension contracts providing retirement income are provided to married couples, mortality assumption for actuarial valuation based on the entire population is likely to overestimate the actual mortality of the group of beneficiaries specified in the contracts. This study considered the differences in mortality according to marital status to analyze the length and value of the payments of a typical pension contract for a married couple. The study quantified the effect on actuarial measurements of considering marital status in mortality assumptions with a multi-state model framework using Korean experience mortality data organized by marital status. The results of analysis indicate that considering marital status in mortality assumptions improves mortality risk management.

Methods for Nonlinear Structural Response Analysis of Offshore Structures with Passive Fire Protection under Fires (해양플랜트 구조물의 화재 사고 시 PFP 효과를 고려한 비선형 구조응답 해석 기법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong Hwan;Lee, Dong Hun;Ha, Yeon Chul;Kim, Bong Ju;Seo, Jung Kwan;Paik, Jeom Kee
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.294-305
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    • 2014
  • In offshore structures, fire is one of the most important hazardous events. The concern of fires has recently been reflected in the rules and quantified risk assessment based design practice. Within the framework of quantified risk assessment and the management of offshore installations, therefore, more refined computations of the consequences or hazardous action effects due to fire are required. To mitigate fire risk, passive fire protection(PFP) is widely used on offshore structures. This study presents methods for a nonlinear structural response analysis considering the PFP effects under fires. It is found that a structural response analysis is most likely to use valuable technology for the optimization and design of offshore structures with PFP. Thermal and structural response analyses have been performed using LS-DYNA and FAHTS/USFOS. The results of these structural response analyses are compared with each other.

A Study on the Application of Risk Management for Medical Device Software Test (의료기기 소프트웨어 테스트 위험관리 적용 방안 연구)

  • Kim, S.H.;Lee, jong-rok;Jeong, Dong-Hun;Park, Hui-Byeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2012.10a
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    • pp.495-497
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    • 2012
  • Development of application risk management for medical device software test. First, Through questionnaires, Medical device manufacturers, Analysis of software validation and risk management status. Second, Analyzed by comparing the difference between black box testing and white box testing. Third, After analyzing the potential for software analysis tools using code derived factors were quantified, Finally, Medical device risk management process so that it can be applied to build the framework by FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) technique. Through this Difficult to build software validation and risk management processes for manufacturers to take advantage of support in medical device GMP(Good Manufacture Practice).

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Fault Tree Analysis for Risk Assessment of CO2 Leakage from Geologic Storage (지중 저장 이산화탄소의 누출 위험도 평가를 위한 결함수 분석)

  • Lee, Sang Il;Lee, Sang Ki;Hwang, Jin Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.359-366
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    • 2009
  • CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) is considered as the most promising interim solution to deal with the greenhouse gas such as $CO_2$ responsible for global warming. Even though carefully chosen geologic formations are known to contain stored gas for a long time period, there are potential risks of leakage. Up to now, applicable risk assessment procedures for the leakage of $CO_2$ are not available. This study presents a basis for risk analysis applicable to a complex geologic storage system. It starts with the classification of potential leakage pathways. Receptors and the leakage effect on them are identified and quantified. Then, a fault tree is constructed, which yields the minimum cut set (i.e., the most vulnerable leakage pathway) and quantifies the probability of the leakage risk through the cut set. The methodology will provide a tool for risk assessment in a CCS project. The outcomes of the assessment will not only ensure the safety of the CCS system but also offer a reliable and efficient monitoring plan.