• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quality of Predictions

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ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF ICU PATIENTS OF COVID-19 BY USING A SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL MODEL

  • Hyojung Lee;Giphil Cho
    • East Asian mathematical journal
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.119-125
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    • 2024
  • Predicting the number of ICU patients holds significant importance, serving as a critical aspect in efficiently allocating resources, ensuring high-quality care for critically ill individuals, and implementing effective public health strategies to mitigate the impact of diseases. This research focuses on estimating ICU patient numbers through the development of a simple mathematical model. Utilizing data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, this model becomes a valuable tool for predicting and managing ICU resource requirements during the ongoing pandemic. By incorporating historical data on infected individuals and fatalities from previous weeks, we establish a straightforward equation. We found the substantial impact of the delay in infected individuals, particularly those occurring more than five weeks earlier, on the accuracy of ICU predictions. Proactively preparing for potential surges in severe cases becomes feasible by forecasting the demand for intensive care beds, ultimately improving patient outcomes and preventing excessive strain on medical facilities.

Indoor and outdoor pullout tests for retrofit anchors in low strength concrete

  • Cavunt, Derya;Cavunt, Yavuz S.;Ilki, Alper
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.951-968
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    • 2016
  • In this study, pullout capacities of post-installed deformed bars anchored in low strength concrete using different bonding materials are investigated experimentally. The experimental study was conducted under outdoor and indoor conditions; on the beams of an actual reinforced concrete building and on concrete bases constructed at Istanbul Technical University (ITU). Ready-mixed cement based anchorage mortar with modified polymers (M1), ordinary cement with modified polymer admixture (M2), and epoxy based anchorage mortar with two components (E) were used as bonding material. Furthermore, test results are compared with the predictions of current analytical models. Findings of the study showed that properly designed cement based mortars can be efficiently used for anchoring deformed bars in low quality concrete. It is important to note that the cost of cement based mortar is much lower with respect to conventional epoxy based anchorage materials.

ANN-XGB based predictions of dissolved oxygen (ANN-XGB를 이용한 수중 산소 농도 예측)

  • Jo, Gwanghyun;Lee, Keun Young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.457-458
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    • 2022
  • The dissolved oxygen (DO) is one of the factors of ecosystem that affects survival of aquatic life. Artificial neural network - XGboost (ANN-XGB), which was trained by water quality and weather data obtained at Anyang-streamto, was employed to forecast DO after 1 hours. We document the perforamnce of ANN-XGB.

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The Analysis of the Supercomputer Trends in Weather and Climate Research Areas (기상 및 기후 연구 분야의 슈퍼컴퓨터 보유 추이 분석)

  • Joh, Minsu;Park, Hyei-Sun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2005
  • It is challenging work to predict weather and climate conditions of the future in advance. Since ENIAC was developed, weather and climate research areas have been taking advantage of the improvements in computer hardware. High performance computers allows researchers to build high quality models that allow them to make good predictions of what might happen in the future. Statistics on the high performance computers are one of the major interest to not only manufacturers but also the users such as weather and climate researchers. For this reason, the Top500 Supercomputer Sites Report has been being released twice a year since 1993 to provide a reliable basis for tracking and detecting trends in high performance computing. Using the Top500 Report, a short review on the supercomputer trends in weather and climate research areas is provided in this article.

The Pressure Drop Characteristics in Small Diameter Tubes Using HCFC Alternative Refrigerants (세관내 HCFC계 대체냉매의 압력강하에 관한 연구)

  • Son, C.H.;Lee, H.R.;Jeong, J.H.;Choi, Y.S.;Oh, H.K.
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2000.04b
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    • pp.347-352
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    • 2000
  • The pressure drop characteristics of R-22 and R-410A(a mixture of 50wt% R-32 and 50wt% R-125) flowing in a small diameter tube with 1.77[mm] inner diameter and 3.14[mm] outer diameter was investigated experimentally. the mass fluxes of refrigerants are ranged from 450 to $1050[kg/(m^2{\cdot}s)]$ and the qualites are varied from 0.05 to 0.95. The main experimental results were summarized as follows; The single-phase liquid friction factors for small diameter tubes are higher than those predicted by the Blasius equation. In case of two-phase flow, the pressure gradient of the small diameter tube increases with increasing mass velocity and vapor quality. The experimental data are not well correlated by predictions which were proposed for the large diameter tube.

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Prototype of NMR Based Sensor For Non-Destructive Sugar Content Measurement in Fruits

  • Cho, Seoung-In;Chung, Chang-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 1996.06c
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 1996
  • A 4.1MHz 1H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) sensor was designed and manufactured to evaluate the internal quality of fruit. The magnet console having 963 gauss magnetic field induction was used for the NMR sensor. To optimize evaluate the NMR sensor, glycerol and sugar-water solutions were used. 1H(proton) resonance signals were use of to estimate the sugar contents in fruits the proton resonance signals and were validated . The standard errors of predictions(SEP) were 0.565(apple) , 0.394(pear) and 0.415(kiwi) respectively. The result implied that is possible to evaluate apple , pear and kiwi into 3 grades using the NMR sensor.

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Improvement of Item-Based Collaborative Filtering by Applying Each Customer's Purchase Patterns in Offline Shopping Malls (오프라인 쇼핑몰에서 고객의 과거 구매 패턴을 활용한 아이템 기반 협업필터링 성능 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Seok Bong
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2017
  • Item-based collaborative filtering (IBCF) is an important technology that is widely used in recommender system of online shopping malls. It uses historical information to compute item-item similarity and make predictions. However, in offline shopping each customer's purchasing pattern can be occurred continuously and repeatedly due to time and space constraints contrast to online shopping. Those facts can make IBCF to have limitations from being applied to offline shopping malls directly. In order to improve the quality of recommendations made by IBCF in offline shopping mall, we propose an ensemble approach that considers both item-item similarity of IBCF and each customer's purchasing patterns which are modeled by item networks. Our experimental results show that this approach produces recommendation results superior to those of existing works such as pure IBCF or bestseller approaches.

Evaluation of the Image Backtrack-Based Fast Direct Mode Decision Algorithm

  • Choi, Yungho;Park, Neungsoo
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.685-692
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    • 2012
  • B frame bi-directional predictions and the DIRECT mode coding of the H.264 video compression standard necessitate a complex mode decision process, resulting in a long computation time. To make H.264 feasible, this paper proposes an image backtrack-based fast (IBFD) algorithm and evaluates the performances of two promising fast algorithms (i.e., AFDM and IBFD). Evaluation results show that an image backtrack-based fast (IBFD) algorithm can determine DIRECT mode macroblocks with 13% higher accuracy, as compared with the AFDM. Furthermore, IBFD is shown to reduce the motion estimation time of B frames by up to 23% with a negligible quality degradation.

A Mechanistic Critical Heat Flux Model for High-Subcooling, High-Mass-Flux, and Small-Tube-Diameter Conditions

  • Kwon, Young-Min;Chang, Soon-Heung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.17-33
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    • 2000
  • A mechanistic model based on wall-attached bubble coalescence, previously developed by the authors, was extended to predict a vow high critical heat flux (CHF)in highly subcooled flow boiling, especially for high mass flux and small tube diameter conditions. In order to take into account the enhanced condensation due to high subcooling and high mass velocity in small diameter tubes, a mechanistic approach was adopted to evaluate the non-equilibrium flow quality and void fraction in the subcooled water flow boiling, with preserving the structure of the previous CHF model. Comparison of the model predictions against highly subcooled water CHF data showed relatively good agreement over a wide range of parameters. The significance of the proposed CHF model lies in its generality in applying over the entire subcooled flow boiling regime including the operating conditions of fission and fusion reactors.

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The Stability of Individual Differences in Child-Mother Attachment across 3 Year Periods (애착의 지속성에 관한 단기종단적 연구 : 영아기의 낯선상황 애착유형과 유아기의 애착안정성)

  • Park, Ung Im;Yoo, Myoung Hee
    • Korean Journal of Child Studies
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 1997
  • This article reports the developmental stability of individual differences in children's attachment qualities with their mothers and the relations between the preschoolers' attachment security to mothers and maternal parenting behavior. 24 infants were observed with mothers in the Strange Situation to assess the infant-mother attachment patterns at 16 months of age. After 3 years, attachment security was assessed using Attachment Q-Set, and the modified IPBI (Iowa Parent Behavior Inventory: Mother Form) was administered to mothers to assess their parenting behavior. Analyses revealed significant differences in children's attachment security scores by infancy attachment patterns. That is 11 of 12 children's attachment to mothers qualities were stable across the 3 year periods. The attachment security scores related positively to the responsive maternal parenting behavior. Changes in child-mother attachment quality over time were related to maternal responsiveness. Collectively, these findings were consistent with predictions from attachment theory.

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