• Title/Summary/Keyword: QRA

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A Study on the Single-Family House Price Determinants Analyzed by Quantile Regression: In case of locating single family houses in Seoul (분위회귀분석을 적용한 단독주택의 가격형성요인에 관한 연구: 서울시 소재 단독주택을 대상으로)

  • Yang, Seungchul
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.690-704
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    • 2014
  • Single family houses are the traditional & typical type of house in human history. But there had been little attention to single family houses in Korea so that there was little studies on single family houses. This study aimed to analyse price determinants of single family houses in Seoul, using Quantile Regression Analysis(QRA). Because single family houses has large levels of price, quantile regression analysis is more proper than Ordinary Least Square(OLS). The Results of analysis showed that, land coverage ratio, zoning, passed years, basement floor, hight of land, shape of land were important factors to single family houses price. The scale of effect of land coverage ratio to single family houses price was different to price levels of single family houses. And basement floor affected more negative effects to middle price, location and zoning had positive effects to high price single family houses. The degree of influence of determinants of single family houses price was deferent by region, KangBuk and KangNam. In KangNam, land coverage ratio and accessibilities were more important in low price single family houses, green zone and more far way is affected positive effects on single family houses price. In Kangbuk, land coverage ratio affects similar effects on single family houses price.

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The Comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment of LNG Tank Designs for the Safety Improvement of Above Ground Membrane Tank (지상식 멤브레인 LNG저장탱크 안전성 향상을 위한 설계형식별 정량적 위험성 비교 평가)

  • Lee S.R.;Kwon B.G.;Lee S.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.9 no.4 s.29
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    • pp.57-61
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    • 2005
  • The objective of paper is to carry out a comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of two KOGAS tank designs using a fault tree methodology, a standard 'Full Containment' tank and a 'Membrane' tank. For the membrane tank, both the initial KOGAS design and 4 modified KOGAS designs have been assessed, giving six separate cases. In this paper, the frequencies of releases are quantified using a fault tree approach. For clarity in the analysis, and to ensure consistency, all cases have been quantified using the same fault tree. Logic within the fault tree is used to select each of the cases. Full quantification of risks is often difficult, owing to a lack of relevant failure data, but the aim of this study has been to be as quantitative as possible, with full transparency of failure information. The most significant general cause of external LNG leaks is predicted to be a seismic event, which has been quantified nominally. 4modified KOGAS desiens to Prevent damage of bottom membrane panels that was shown in preparatory estimation could quantitively confirm safety improvement. According to result, the predicted frequencies of an external LNG leak for the full containment and modified membrane tanks are very similar, failures due to dropped pumps are predicted to be significantly greater for the membrane tank with thickened plate than for the full containment tank.

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A study on the safety improvement of above ground membrane LNG storage tank (상지상식 멤브레인 액화천연가스 저장탱크의 안전성 향상 방안)

  • Lee, Seung Rim;Kim, Han Sang
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.339-345
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    • 2012
  • RMembrane LNG storage tanks have been recently investigated to replace full-containment LNG storage tanks because of safety and cost aspects. Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Finite Element Method (FEM) were used to evaluate safety of membrane LNG storage tanks. In this study, structural safety evaluation results via FEM analysis showed that both membrane type and full-containment type cryogenic LNG storage tanks with 140,000 $m^3$ capacity were equivalently safe in terms of strength safety and leakage safety of a storage tank system. Also, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) was used to improve the safety of membrane LNG storage tanks and membrane LNG tanks were modified by adding three safety equipments: impact absorber structure for the low part of the membrane, the secondary barrier to diminish the thermal stress of the corner part of the outer tank, and a pump catcher in case of falling of a pump. Consequently, the safety of the modified membrane LNG storage tanks were proved to be equivalent to that of full-containment LNG storage tanks.

Numerical Study of Fire Behavior Induced by Gas Leakage in Combined Cycle Power Plant (복합발전플랜트 내의 가스 화재 거동에 관한 수치해석)

  • Park, Jaeyong;Sung, Kunhyuk;Li, Longnan;Choi, Jinwook;Kim, Daejoong;Lee, Seong Hyuk;Ryou, Hong Sun
    • Journal of ILASS-Korea
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2015
  • To date, the demand for Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) has been continuously increased to overcome the problem of air pollution and lack of energy. In particular, the underground CCPP is exposed to substantial fire and explosion risks induced by gas leakage. The present study conducted numerical simulations to examine the fire behavior and gas leakage characteristics for a restricted region including gas turbine and other components used in a typical CCPP system. The commercial code of FLUENT V.14 was used for simulation. From the results, it was found that flammable limit distribution of leakage gas affects fire behavior. Especially, the flame is propagated in an instant in restricted region with LNG gas. In addition, consequence analysis factors such as critical temperature and radiation heat flux are introduced. These results would be useful in making the safety guidelines for the underground CCPP.

A Study on the Collecting Method of Reliability Database for Gas Facilities (가스설비의 신뢰도데이터 수집방법에 관한 연구)

  • Rhie, Kwang-Won;Yoon, Ik-Keun;Han, Sang-Tae;Oh, Sin-Kyu;Kim, Tae-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2008
  • The safety assessment for facility industry is now being periodically performed. For the purpose of scientific safety management, QRA(Quantitative Risk Assessment) is also being performed, and reliability data of the facilities is essential to perform the assessment. Generally, the existing safety assessment is performed by using the values announced in other industry processes, which result in the drop of reliability. In order to solve this problem, there is an urgent need to establish reliability database for the facilities. The most appropriate method is to perform a direct reliability analysis towards the facilities undergoing safety assessment. In this study, in compliance with the assessment method and procedure of OREDA-2002 handbook, the facility reliability data are collected, which include the calendar time and operational time in terms of different facility items, the number of failures in terms of different failure mode, the mean, standard deviation, lower limit and upper limit of failure rate, and the failure rate. And the data process method for this special occasion is also proposed when the number of failure is 0.

Analysis of LPG Facility Siting Considering BLEVE (BLEVE를 고려한 LPG 시설 Siting 분석)

  • Kim, Taebeom;Lee, Kyounglim;Lee, Juhee;Jung, Seungho;Lee, Kunmo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2016
  • In previous studies on LPG siting in Korea, the scope have not included the probability of the secondary events of adjacent LPG tanks or structures from an explosion source. Therefore, it is essential to first identify the phenomenon which can be caused by BLEVE and then, properly assess their effects to each target including secondary event. In this study, we calculated the effects from a potential BLEVE of 15 ton LPG tank causing damages of storage tanks (LPG), structures and human using Phast ver. 6.7 and then suggested three risk zones (Zone I, II, III) assuming the consequences such as overpressure, heat radiation and missile effect by fragments. Zone I and II are divided at the line of 50% occurrence of the secondary event. Zone II and III are divided by Individual Risk(IR). The zone approach in this study can be used for more effective and safer Land Use Planning (LUP) for the future.

A Study on Risk Assessment in Transporting Hazardous Material (위험물질 수송 시 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu Byung Tae;Ko Jae Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.6 no.4 s.18
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2002
  • In this research, the goal is to ascertain the potential danger when transporting hazardous material by considering the important elements that contribute to such situation, instead of relying on the quantitative risk assessment of fixed facilities. Also, this study will verify the social and personal risk according to damage zone limits, by applying the worst case scenario and the alternative scenario that occur during the transportation process. Moreover, it has selected the optimum transportation route for maximum safety. The result of this research could be used to construct a systematic emergency system that can minimize the damage from serious industrial accidents, by effectively decreasing the danger zone and forming a connection between the community, the society, and the industries according to such evaluations.

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Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Dropped Objects for Corroded Subsea Pipelines (부식을 고려한 해저 파이프라인의 확률론적 중량물 낙하 충돌 위험도 해석)

  • Kumar, Ankush;Seo, Jung Kwan
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2018
  • Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has been used in shipping and offshore industries for many years, supporting the decision-making process to guarantee safe running at different stages of design, fabrication and throughout service life. The assessments of a risk perspective are informed by the frequency of events (probability) and the associated consequences. As the number of offshore platforms increases, so does the length of subsea pipelines, thus there is a need to extend this approach and enable the subsea industry to place more emphasis on uncertainties. On-board operations can lead to objects being dropped on subsea pipelines, which can cause leaks and other pipeline damage. This study explains how to conduct hit frequency analyses of subsea pipelines, using historical data, and how to obtain a finite number of scenarios for the consequences analysis. An example study using probabilistic methods is used.

Verification on Separation Distance Criteria when Transporting Dangerous Goods in Korea Railroad (국내 철도 위험물 운송 시 격리차 운영기준 안전성 검증)

  • Lee, Byeongwoo;Park, Dasung;Kang, Taesun;Jung, Seungho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.28-33
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    • 2019
  • After the Tianjin Port explosion on 2015, it is highlighted that securing safety for dangerous goods in Korea and try to establish safety standards for railroad dangerous substances transport. In Korea, the regulation for the transport of dangerous goods is stipulated to need 3 buffer cars. However, It is inefficient that 3 buffer cars. because 3 buffer cars, increase transportation too much costs in transit and it is too strict compared to other country rules. The purpose of this study was to improve transportation efficiency by mitigating the criteria for isolated railroads through rational safety assessment. In order to verify this, we used a risk assessment software which is PHAST 7.2 developed by DNV GL. We calculated safety distances that could prevent ignitions setting up scenarios when relief system work installed on a train loaded with propylene, nonane. As a result, we confirmed that buffer cars can be reduced from three to one. This result would be implemented in the application of Korail.

A Study on Zone-based Risk Analysis System using Real-time Data (실시간 데이터를 이용한 지역기반 위험분석 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jeong Seok;Bang, Hyo Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2013
  • Energy industry facilities can cause fatal damage for internal industry employee as well as external general people because handling various kinds of gas and harmful substance might be spread to large scale severe accident by fire, explosion, and toxic gas leakage. In order to prevent these accidents, quantification by damage effect on structure and human is tried by using quantitative risk assessment, but it is difficult to process instantly exceptional cases and requires knowledge of expert. This paper aims to minimize exceptional cases and knowledge of expert, and present risk with human perceptible. So, we designed and developed zone-base risk analysis system that can compute risk of zone in real time at that point using database and incremental model.