• 제목/요약/키워드: Project risk

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In the middle of a perfect storm: political risks of the Belt and Road project at Kyaukphyu, Myanmar

  • Morris, David
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.210-236
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    • 2021
  • China's Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure connectivity and other projects are presented in much of the discourse as a grand strategy to trap developing nations in debt, to exert asymmetric power and construct a new world economic order. The asymmetric relationship between China and Myanmar might therefore be expected to generate a range of political risks for stakeholders. Myanmar itself presents a "perfect storm" of problems, with dysfunctional governance, civil conflict, under-development and growing economic dependence on China. The Kyaukphyu port project and associated Special Economic Zone in Myanmar's troubled Rakhine state is investigated as a case study of risks on the Belt and Road. While worst case fears China might seize military control of the port appear unlikely, at least in current conditions, empirical observation indicates the complexity on the ground generates an array of other risks - as well as opportunities, should conditions allow. Further, despite challenges and constrained capacity, Myanmar governments have demonstrated agency, including by re-negotiating control and costs of the Kyaukphyu project. The case underlines that conditions are more complicated than simply China's asymmetric power. A sceptical approach is taken to normative discourses in order to build inductive understanding of how stakeholders and local experts perceive dynamics underway. A political risk approach is deployed to develop a framework to identify, analyse and assess risks for actors in relation to the Kyaukphyu project. The research findings are presented on an interim basis, given current constraints on field interviews due to the current crisis.

IMPACT OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL COST VARIATION ON THE ON THE FEASIBILITY OF BUILDING PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A CASE STUDY IN VIETNAM RISK

  • Soo-Yong Kim;Luu Truong Van;Byeong-Gi Yoo;Luong Thanh Dung
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.96-105
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a study on the impact of variation of construction material prices on the feasibility of building projects in Vietnam. The paper makes use of Monte-Carlo simulation for financial risk analysis of net present Value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). To well illustrate the influencing, a case study is presented. The research results show that there is a strong correlation between steel prices, gold prices, and $US exchange rate. Outputs of statistics also reveal that the concurrent variation of prices of cement, steel, sand, brick, formwork and stone has strongly negative impact on NPV and IRR of building projects. The results also indicate that the proportion of steel cost to total construction cost is 17.95% which is the cause of risks for the feasibility of building project in Vietnam. The paper stresses that feasibility study of building project must integrate the impact of construction materials prices in order to mitigate risks in developing countries as Vietnam.

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Risk Identification and Management Strategies for BIM Projects

  • Ng, Ron C.W.;Cheng, Jack C.P.;Das, Moumita
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2020.12a
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2020
  • The construction industry is undergoing a digital transformation in which Building Information Modelling (BIM) is a key technology. The potential of BIM in several areas such as design optimization, time management, cost management, and asset management/facility management (AM/FM) is widely acknowledged by the AECO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operation) industry around the world. However, BIM implementation in construction projects is faced with problems such as project delay and cost overruns. The lack of identification of risks in BIM projects and standard guidelines on mitigation techniques furthers poor performance, dissatisfaction, and disputes between employers and project participants, which results in low BIM adoption rates. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to identify the potential risks in BIM implementation under the primary categories - (1) technical, (2) contractual, (3) management-related, and (4) personnel-related risks in BIM projects and present solutions to reduce, manage, and mitigate risks. To meet the objective of this paper, a survey was designed and conducted in the Hong Kong construction industry in which over 140 respondents from different disciplines, with experience in BIM projects, have participated. Based on the analysis of the survey data, the most severe and frequently occurring BIM risks and their potential mitigation strategies were identified and discussed in this paper.

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Reclaiming Multifaceted Financial Risk Information from Correlated Cash Flows under Uncertainty

  • Byung-Cheol Kim;Euysup Shim;Seong Jin Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.602-607
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    • 2013
  • Financial risks associated with capital investments are often measured with different feasibility indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This paper aims at demonstrating practical applications of probabilistic feasibility analysis techniques for an integrated feasibility evaluation of the IRR and PBP. The IRR and PBP are concurrently analyzed in order to measure the profitability and liquidity, respectively, of a cash flow. The cash flow data of a real wind turbine project is used in the study. The presented approach consists of two phases. First, two newly reported analysis techniques are used to carry out a series of what-if analyses for the IRR and PBP. Second, the relationship between the IRR and PBP is identified using Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the integrated feasibility evaluation of stochastic cash flows becomes a more viable option with the aide of newly developed probabilistic analysis techniques. It is also shown that the relationship between the IRR and PBP for the wind turbine project can be used as a predictive model for the actual IRR at the end of the service life based on the actual PBP of the project early in the service life.

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The Effect of Startup Support Policy on Entrepreneurship: Focusing on TIPS Support Projects by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups (창업지원정책이 기업가정신에 미치는 영향: 중소벤처기업부 팁스(TIPS) 지원사업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Mijoo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2022
  • This study studied the effect of the TIPS support project of the Ministry of SMEs and Startups on the entrepreneurship of TIPS start-ups. The Tips start-up company, which is the subject of the study, was selected for the TIPS support project, participated in all commercialization funds, incubation facilities, and capacity building programs, and was selected as a company that received private investment. One-on-one in-depth interviews were conducted for about eight weeks from January 14, 2022 to March 11, 2022. For this study, the TIPS support project was subdivided into four categories: commercialization funds, incubation facilities, capacity building programs, and private investment attraction, and entrepreneurship factors were classified into four categories: innovation, challenge spirit, leadership, and risk-taking. As a result of the in-depth interview, the influence of the TIPS support project on entrepreneurship factors was in the order of challenge spirit, innovation, risk-taking, and leadership. Specifically, it was found that commercialization funds influenced innovation and risk-taking, incubation facilities had a challenge spirit and risk-taking, competency-building programs had a challenge spirit and leadership, and attracting private investment had an influence on innovation and challenge spirit. The implications of this study are that the TIPS support project, a private investment-led technology start-up support program, was introduced in 2013 and as of the end of March 2022, and a report was prepared focusing on visible performance such as private investment performance and employment rate. However, through this study, by analyzing whether the TIPS support project contributed to the cultivation of entrepreneurship for TIPS start-ups, it was found that it had a positive influence not only on quantitative growth but also on qualitative growth.

An Evaluation Models for R&D Projects Selection (연구개발과제 선정을 위한 단계별 평가모형)

  • 이상철;하정진;김성희
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.17 no.31
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 1994
  • Sequentiality in decision making is an inherent characteristic of the R&D Process, Conceptual changes are noted during the Course of the Project which represent a continuous improvement in the quality of the data available during the various project stages. In this paper, Eight characteristic types of project evaluation models have been developed economic index models, portfolio models, decision theory models, risk analysis models, frontier models, scoring models, profile models and checklists. Each of these will be critically reviewed and appraised.

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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRAM MANAGEMENT SUPPORTING SYSTEM

  • Tetsuya Yamada;Shigehiko Tanabe
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.480-489
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    • 2007
  • Program management is a concept to deal with huge and complex business activities from social, economical, cultural and environmental points of view and increase their value for client and society. The aim of this study is to establish a framework of program management process and develop a supporting system for program management. In this paper we propose a framework and a proto type supporting system based on case studies and report the result of application to an urban redevelopment using partially implemented software.

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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES FROM HOMELAND SECURITY VIEWPOINTS

  • Chun Nen Huang;Yao-Chen Kuo
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.292-301
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    • 2009
  • The employment of risk management theory in Urban Disaster Management System (UDMS) has become an important trend in recent years. The viewpoint of risk management is mainly a comprehensive risk assessment of various internal and external factors, and a subsequent handling of risks. Through continuous and systematic accumulation and analysis of risk information, disaster prevention and rescue system is established. Taking risk management theory as the foundation, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has developed a series of UDMS in the mega-cities all over the world. With this system as a common platform, OECD cooperates with different cities to develop disaster prevention and rescue system consisting of vulnerability assessment methods, risk assessment and countermeasures. The paper refers to the urban disaster vulnerability assessment and risk management of OECD and the mega-cities of different advanced and developed countries in the world, and then constructs a preliminarily drafted structure for the vulnerability assessment methods and risk management mechanism in the metropolitan districts of Taiwan.

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Project Risk Assessment Through Construction Sequence Analyses for Industrial Plant Construction Projects (산업플랜트 건설 프로젝트의 주요 공정 시퀀스 분석을 통한 리스크 평가)

  • Lee, Kyusung;Choi, Jaehyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.140-151
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    • 2013
  • In 2011 and 2012, Korean construction firms awarded around $ 64.5. Billion each year from the overseas market in 2011. This contract value accounted for overwhelming portion of total overseas construction contract values, and this growth is expected to continue for the next decade. However, contract scopes awarded to the Korean construction firms mainly involve detailed design and construction phases due to their competitiveness for the construction techniques. In other words, front-end-engineering-design and construction project management are not considered part of core business due to the lack of project management skills and experience. The researchers focused on development of construction sequence model required to improve construction planning and scheduling skills for the Korean construction firms. The model identifies critical work items and the sequence throughout project execution process. In addition, the researchers developed a risk evaluation method by applying fuzzy theory to the critical construction activities for the industrial plant construction projects. Developed methodology will help project practitioners to develop project schedule in a timely and effe ctive manner and evaluate project risks associated with scheduling process for the industrial plant construction projects.

A Comparative Analysis of Integrated Project Delivery in Construction Versus Traditional Methods

  • Peressini, Anthony;Bristow, James;Motahari, Mahmoud;Karakouzian, Moses
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.669-677
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, different types of traditional project delivery methods in the construction industry were explored and a comparative analysis against Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) were performed. The advantages of IPD method for all parties, owner/engineer/architect/general contractor, were explored by reviewing the most recent literature. The literature suggests that IPD method should be the dominating project delivery method and diluting the conventional methods such as Design-Bid-Build due to more collaborative and mutually beneficial ways of doing construction; IPD is newer and a more comprehensive method to capture the intrinsic values of project collaboration. This paper presents a comparison of the commonly used methods of project delivery, Design-bid-build, CMAR, & Design-Build and addresses their advantages and disadvantages in differing project scopes and sizes. Several industry leaders with experience in the four types of project delivery addressed were surveyed. The survey results show an overwhelming desire for future projects to go toward IPD from the contractor/owner/RDP. The biggest obstacle facing a project from using IPD appears to be trust.

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