• 제목/요약/키워드: Project Uncertainties

검색결과 120건 처리시간 0.028초

무기 획득과정에서의 요구사항 결정 프레임워크 (Framework for Determining Requirements in the Weapons systems Acquisition Process)

  • 윤하늘;옥영호;왕지남
    • 시스템엔지니어링학술지
    • /
    • 제8권1호
    • /
    • pp.77-82
    • /
    • 2012
  • In Weapons acquisition process, if the requirements are not clear, it leads to confusion and conflict in business. In the development of next-generation weapons, to define and derive requirements has to start from decision of operational concept. It is difficult task and has many uncertainties. This paper has goal about development of knowledge acquisition process that derive military operational scenario-based requirements acquisition process and framework that classify and save the derived requirements for next project. That framework can generate new class and category, also suggest that verification of requirements. It help to derive and manage the requirements, and make it easy to grasp the requirements. Accordingly, it can help make military requirement plan and weapon acquisition process.

대안 평가를 위한 의사결정 기법 (Decision Methods for Evaluation of Alternatives)

  • 남기창;홍상표
    • 환경영향평가
    • /
    • 제9권4호
    • /
    • pp.363-372
    • /
    • 2000
  • For any particular development project or environmental regulations, decision-making criteria is required and conflicts among criteria should be resolved. It is necessary to investigate criteria that government agencies employ in making decisions that influence the environment. The evaluation of alternative development proposals and regulatory measures involves much more than environmental issues. Economic, technical, and social factors should be considered along with environmental impacts when making evaluations. Evaluation should be based on values of all individuals who may be affected by public or private decisions. There are many evaluation methods for determining how individuals and groups value alternative public actions. Numerous weighting-scaling methodologies can be used in such evaluations. These methodologies represent adaptations of multiple-criteria or multiple-attribute decision-making techniques. Environmental risk assessment which accounts for uncertainties in choosing among alternative policies and projects is increasingly used.

  • PDF

풍력자원의 불확실성을 고려한 사업자측면에서의 투자타당성 (A Stochastic Analysis of a Wind Power Investment)

  • 이재걸;박민혁;이윤경;김정주
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.357-360
    • /
    • 2007
  • Any investment analysis has to deal with the uncertainty that arises over the course of operating the invested project. When it comes to an wind power, such analysis gets even more complicated, as the wind resource or the current is inherently unstable and unpredictable. Different from predecessors in the field of analyzing wind power economics, this paper proposes a stochastic methodology of analyzing the economic efficiency of an investment in wind power to explicitly address those uncertainties or risks. A probability distribution is assigned to each variable to generate a probability distribution of the economic value of an investment through a Monte-Carlo simulation

  • PDF

Geological Safety Evaluation and Monitoring of Nuclear Facility Sites in South Korea

  • Lee, Hyunwoo;Woo, Hyeon Dong;Chun, Hyun Ju;Im, Chang-Bock
    • 지질공학
    • /
    • 제24권4호
    • /
    • pp.609-613
    • /
    • 2014
  • The Korean Peninsula, located at the southeastern tip of the Eurasian Plate, is known to be tectonically stable, and no critical evidence has yet been found that would override the safety design of nuclear facilities in South Korea. Because a nuclear power plant, like other major social overhead capital facilities, could cause great damage to both the environment and society through an unexpected tectonic event, even one of extremely low probability, like the Fukushima accident, a defense-in-depth safety approach is required in geological and geotechnical site safety evaluation for nuclear projects. This paper introduces the regulatory procedures that are in place to confirm nuclear site safety and site monitoring (e.g., earthquakes and groundwater) systems applied to nuclear facilities in order to reduce inherent uncertainties within the site safety review of geological and seismological issues related with a NPP project.

Evaluation of Saxton Critical Experiments

  • Joo, Hyung-Kook;Noh, Jae-Man;Jung, Hyung-Guk;Kim, Young-Il;Kim, Young-Jin
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국원자력학회 1997년도 추계학술발표회논문집(1)
    • /
    • pp.191-196
    • /
    • 1997
  • As a part of International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP), SAXTON critical experiments were reevaluated. The effects on $K_{eff}$ of the uncertainties in experiment parameters, fuel rod characterization, soluble boron, critical water level, core structure, $^{241}$ Am and $^{241}$ Pu isotope number densities, random pitch error, duplicated experiment, axial fuel position, model simplification, etc., were evaluated and added in benchmark-model $k_{eff}$. In addition to detailed model, the simplified model for Saxton critical experiments was constructed by omitting the top, middle, and bottom grids and ignoring the fuel above water.r.r.

  • PDF

확률적 방법에 의한 철도시설물의 LCC 분석 (Probability- based Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Railroad Structures)

  • 소병춘;최영민;조선규;신경철;정재동
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국철도학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.971-976
    • /
    • 2004
  • The management of railroad structures is more difficult and complicate because there are many structures such as rail, bridge, tunnel, station, and so on. Therefore, LCC(Life Cycle Cost) analysis of railroad structures as public infrastructure must contain a maintenance cost as well as an initial cost in order to make a more effective management during the life cycle on the design phase. This paper presents a cost classification scheme considering user costs such as value of delayed time of passenger and freight. Also, in this study it is developed a probabilistic life cycle cost(PLCC) analysis model of railroad structures taking into account uncertainties and variations of input variables in order to analyze LCC. It may be stated that the model proposed in this study can greatly contribute to the making optimal decision, the estimate of the maintenance cost and the allocate of budget in the project of railroad structures.

  • PDF

ISM기법을 이용한 도시재생사업 리스크 요인의 상관성 분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on Correlation Analysis of Risk Factors for Urban Regeneration Using ISM method)

  • 박범석;김윤식;한상원;현창택
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국건축시공학회 2013년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
    • /
    • pp.192-193
    • /
    • 2013
  • In recent years, risks associated with mixed used development in urban regeneration projects which have actively been implemented have been on the rise due to uncertainties and complexities of those projects. Thus, risk management is needed to effectively manage those risks that may occur during the process of a project. Many studies have contributed to deal with risk management of those projects. These studies, however, have focused main on identification stage and deriving the main risk factors and have limitations on presenting the relationship among those risk factors. Since many risks are interdependent and have multiple effects, the purpose of this study is to present a way(ISM method) to provide a hierarchical structural framework of risks in Urban Regeneration. The structural of risks can helps decision makers to trace the actual source of these risks.

  • PDF

An Economic Analysis of Potential Cost Savings from the Use of Low Voltage DC (LVDC) Distribution Network

  • Hur, Don;Baldick, Ross
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제9권3호
    • /
    • pp.812-819
    • /
    • 2014
  • The proposed technical work attempts to compare the two key technologies of power distribution, i.e. direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) in a fiscal manner. The DC versus AC debate has been around since the earliest days of electric power. Here, at least four types of a low voltage DC (LVDC) distribution are examined as an alternative to the existing medium voltage AC (MVAC) distribution with an economic assessment technique for a project investment. Besides, the sensitivity analysis will be incorporated in the overall economic analysis model to cover uncertainties of the input data. A detailed feasibility study indicates that many of the common benefits claimed for an LVDC distribution will continue to grow more profoundly as it is foreseen to arise with the increased integration of renewable energy sources and the proliferation of energy storage associated with the enhanced utilization of uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems.

대형 융합 연구사업의 최선단 연구기획 관리전략 (Fuzzy-Front-End Management Strategies under High Risk and Fast-Changing Environment)

  • 송용일;이대희;박성배;정윤철
    • 기술혁신연구
    • /
    • 제12권3호
    • /
    • pp.135-157
    • /
    • 2004
  • As the speed of technological changes increase with the investment requirements steadily expanding, private firms and government-funded research institutes experience similar pressures with respect to the necessity of risk reduction and technological alliances in R&D activities. This paper first attempts to review previous research in managing R&D projects with large, risky, and long-term investment requirements. Our primary focus is placed on the "fuzzy front-end" (FFE) projects with uncertainties at the investigation and planning stages. We analyze various elements that create FFE conditions, classify them into basic constructs, and suggest tools and methods to deal with FFE conditions. The findings suggest that both initial FFE conditions and the effectiveness of FFE management affect the performance of the project later on, and thus, especially for large projects, we must deal with FFE seriously in a comprehensive manner. We utilize in-depth panel interviews and case studies to approach the research questions.

  • PDF

Neutron yield and energy spectrum of 13C(alpha,n)16O reaction in liquid scintillator of KamLAND: A Nedis-2m simulation

  • Vlaskin, Gennady N.;Bedenko, Sergey V.;Ghal-Eh, Nima;Vega-Carrillo, Hector R.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제53권12호
    • /
    • pp.4067-4071
    • /
    • 2021
  • The 13C (α,n)16O reaction cross-section is important data for nuclear physics, astrophysical, and neutrino physics experiments, however, they exhibit uncertainties due to the discrepancies in the experimental data. In this study, using the Nedis-2m program code, the energy spectrum of α-induced neutrons in a thin carbon target was calculated and the corresponding reaction cross-section was refined in the alpha particle energy range of 5-8 MeV. The results were used to calculate the intensity and energy spectrum of background neutrons produced in the liquid scintillator of KamLAND. The results will be useful in a variety of astrophysical and neutrino experiments especially those based on LS or Gd-LS detectors.