• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.191-200
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• 2007

This paper introduces a tool for predicting potential cost overrun during project execution and for quantifying the uncertainty on the expected project cost, which is occasionally changed by the unknown effects resulted from project's complications and unforeseen environments. The model proposed in this stuff is useful in diagnosing cost performance as a project progresses and in monitoring the changes of the uncertainty as indicators for a warning signal. This model is intended for the use by project managers who forecast the change of the uncertainty and its magnitude. The paper presents a mathematical approach for modifying the costs of incomplete work packages and project cost, and quantifying reduced uncertainties at a consistent confidence level as actual cost information of an ongoing project is obtained. Furthermore, this approach addresses the effects of actual informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incomplete work packages and describes the impacts on the variation of the uncertainty for the expected project cost incorporating Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis (MPA) and Bayes' Theorem. For the illustration purpose, the Introduced model has employed an example construction project. The results are analyzed to demonstrate the use of the model and illustrate its capabilities.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.195-214
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to explore the applicability of AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to select more productive projects among various proposed projects in a particular company. To achieve this research objective, the characteristics of project evaluation and selection are first reviewed with respect to when, where, and how the decision is made. Then the theoretical basis of the AHP is briefly reviewed along with its mathematical underpinnings to construct the framework of project evaluation and selection. To be more specific, the evaluation and selection criteria were reorganized in the AHP-based framework to make the process of project evaluation and selection more productive. Project evaluation and selection is one of the most important activities for the most companies to be more advantageous in the market. Despite the importance of decision making process of project selection, not many of how to choose the best project were suggested as the reliable project selection methods in the industries. It may be because it involves various activities related to conflict resolution among different evaluation criteria, high uncertainties of market, and the unclear tradeoff among various project objectives. Furthermore, the decision, once made at this point, tends to be irrevocable until the whole process turns out to be a complete success or failure. As the result, the AHP method showed better financial performance rather than the traditional method in a case study.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.143-147
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• 2010

Due to the diversification and complication of construction projects, controlling risks from the early design-planning phase gives huge impact on success of the construction project. As a part of managing uncertainties it is also important to estimate the project cost several times. Especially, estimating project cost in the early stage gives effects on making a budget for projects. This study estimated the apartment project cost using case-based reasoning(CBR), which is the process of solving new problems based on the past problems. For this, we deduced the apartment cost influence factors which can be gathered in the early stage of project. Based on the factors we established the database for apartment project and calculated the attribute value, attribute similarity and case similarity. Although we retrieve the most similar case from the database, it is very hard to utilize it directly due to the uniqueness of each project. So, Genetic Algorithm(GA) was applied in revising the cost of the retrieved-case. Therefore, the accuracy of the prediction was improved by GA optimization.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.101-110
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• 2008

In order to achieve the best performance of a project, uncertainties involved in the building construction process need to be identified in the planning phase of the project. Risk management plays a significant role in construction to minimize risk occurred due to uncertainties of a project. Although the importance of the risk management has been known to the construction industry, a more effective system should be developed to meet the demands of the industry. The purpose of this study is to develop the effective risk management system for scheduling the construction processes. The study provides a tool that can optimize the management system which would assist managers to identify schedule risks in the planning phase of the project.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.907-913
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• 2009

Pipeline construction is a highly repetitive and resource-intensive process that is exposed to various constraints and uncertainties in the working environment. Effective look-ahead scheduling based on the most recent project performance data can greatly improve project execution and control. This study enhances the traditional linear scheduling method with stochastic simulation to incorporate activity performance uncertainty in look-ahead scheduling. To facilitate the use of this stochastic method, a computer program, Stochastic Linear Scheduling Method (SLSM), was designed and implemented. Accurate look-ahead scheduling can help schedulers to better anticipate problem areas and formulate new plans to improve overall project performance.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.43-58
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• 2013

This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.747-753
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• 2009

Planning the construction for a system of bored piles in building foundation engineering is (1) to predict the time duration required to complete all the bored piles with due consideration of relevant engineering factors and site constraints; then (2) to predict the total project time generally by aggregating the predicted working duration for construction of each bored pile. The duration for construction of an individual bored pile results from analyzing various working sequences and different activity duration (such as predrilling, excavation, steelfixing, air-lifting, and concreting, etc.), which is informed by experiences and site records of previous projects. However, determining the project duration for constructing many bored piles on one site is much more complicated than adding up the time duration for individual piles. In practice, project schedules are often found to be unrealistic and incorrect during the construction stage. This is because construction planning is not based on a exhaustive and comprehensive evaluation of site factors, such as site layout plan, site constraints, quality control, environmental control, safety control and logical relationships between different trades. In this paper, we identify those factors based on a foundation engineering site in Hong Kong with ninety-seven bored piles and address their effects on uncertainties in activity time and project time.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.51-64
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• 2022

Companies are planning and executing IT projects using information technology as a means to secure external competitiveness. However, IT projects have high risks and uncertainties due to the invisibility of outputs (systems, services, products), and changes in plans frequently occur during project execution. As a result, most IT projects are closed without achieving the target performance. This can lead to a waste of resources and money for the company, which in turn leads to the loss of opportunities to enter new markets. This study intends to analyze the effect of changes in the project plan on customer satisfaction, which is the project performance. Also, we want to find the importance of project planning so that the target performance of the IT project can be achieved. For the empirical analysis of this study, about 500 actual project data were collected. As for the analysis method, statistical analysis such as simple and multiple regression analysis and control effect was performed. Looking at the results of the analysis, it was found that the scope change affects the cost change and the schedule change. Also, changes in scope and cost were found to affect project performance. The theoretical performance of this study proved the theoretical fact that good project performance comes out if the IT project is executed as planned. The practical performance suggested the need for a change in project management by proving that thorough execution of the project planning stage can improve the project performance in the Korean project management culture, where the project planning stage is poorly performed for the rapid implementation of the IT project.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.459-468
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• 2007

The u-City construction project has become a hot topic in the construction market because it seems economic value-added field for construction firms. However, construction firms don't willingly participate in the u-City construction market because environments of the future business for the u-City are very uncertain. Scenario planning is a very powerful method in managing this uncertain planning situation and is based on scenarios that help each enterprise appropriately adapt itself to its own business environments. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. For the purpose of dealing with such uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible market scenarios of the u-City construction market in S.Korea through a scenario planning approach. From this perspective, we considered various aspects of the u-City construction such as market demands, technology development, policy level and management environment. After considering the relevant issues, we identified the main trends and key uncertainties. Finally, we developed three coherent u-City construction market scenarios. Construction firms can use these scenarios as a basic reference for market analysis and business strategy. Therefore, this paper is able to enhance the participation of construction firms in the u-City construction market.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.700-705
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• 2005

The purpose of this project is the derivation and development of techniques for the new estimation of robustness for the systems having uncertainties. The basic ideas to analyze the system which is the originally nonlinear is Lyapunov direct theorems. The nonlinear systems have various forms of terms inside the system equations and this investigation is confined in the form of bounded uncertainties. Bounded means the uncertainties are with same positive/negative range. The number of uncertainties will be the degree of freedoms in the calculation of the stability region. This is so called the robustness bounds. This proposition adopts the theoretical analysis of the Lyapunov direct methods, that is, the sign properties of the Lyapunov function derivative integrated along finite intervals of time, in place of the original method of the sign properties of the time derivative of the Lyapunov function itself. This is the new sufficient criteria to relax the stability condition and is used to generate techniques for the robust design of control systems with structured perturbations. Using this relaxing stability conditions, the selection of Lyapunov candidate function is of various forms. In this paper, the quadratic form is selected. this generated techniques has been demonstrated by recent research interest in the area of robust control design and confirms that estimation of robustness bounds will be improved upon those obtained by results of the original Lyapunov method. In this paper, the symbolic algebraic procedures are utilized and the calculating errors are reduced in the numerical procedures. The application of numerical procedures can prove the improvements in estimations of robustness for one-and more structured perturbations. The applicable systems is assumed to be linear with time-varying with nonlinear bounded perturbations. This new techniques will be extended to other nonlinear systems with various forms of uncertainties, especially in the nonlinear case of the unstructured perturbations and also with various control method.