• Title/Summary/Keyword: Project Uncertainties

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Genetic counseling in Korean health care system (유전상담의 제도적인 고찰)

  • Kim, Hyon-J.
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2007
  • Unprecedented amount of genetic information being generated from the result of Human Genome Project (HGP) and advances in genetic research is already forcing changes in the paradigm of health and disease. The ultimate goal of genetic medicine is to use genetic information and technology to develop new ways of treatment or even prevention of the disease on an individual level for 'personalized medicine'. Genetics is play ing an increasingly important role in the diagnosis, monitoring and management of common multifactorial diseases in addition to rare single-gene disorders. While wide range of genetic testing have provided benefits to patients and family, uncertainties surrounding test interpretation, the current lack of available medical options for the diseases, and risks for discrimination and social stigmatization may remain to be resolved. However an increasing number of genetic tests are becoming commercially available, including direct to consumer genetic testing, yet public is often unaw are of their clinical and social implications. The personal nature of information generated by a genetic test, its power to affect major life decisions and family members, and its potential misuse raise important ethical considerations. Therefore appropriate genetic counseling is needed for patient to be informed with the benefits, limitations and risks of genetic tests, prior to informed consent for the tests. Physician also should be familiar with the legal and ethical issues involved in genetic testing to tell patients how w ell a particular genetic risk factor relates with likelihood of disease, and be able to provide appropriate genetic counseling. Genetic counseling become a mandatory requirement as global standard for many genetic testing such as prenatal diagnosis, presymtomatic DNA diagnostic tests and cancer susceptibility gene test for familial cancer syndrome. In oder to meet the challenge of genetic medicine of 21 century in korean health care system, professional education program and certification board for medical genetics specialist including non-MD genetic counselors should be addressed by medical society and regulatory policy of national health insurance reimbursement for genetic counseling to be in place to promote the implementation of clinical genetic service including genetic counseling for proper genetic testing.

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Projecting the climatic influences on the water requirements of wheat-rice cropping system in Pakistan (파키스탄 밀-옥수수 재배시스템의 기후변화를 반영한 필요수량 산정)

  • Ahmad, Mirza Junaid;Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.486-486
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    • 2018
  • During the post green revolution era, wheat and rice were the main crops of concern to cater the food security issues of Pakistan. The use of semi dwarf high yielding varieties along with extensive use of fertilizers and surface and ground water lead to substantial increase in crop production. However, the higher crop productivity came at the cost of over exploitation of the precious land and water resources, which ultimately has resulted in the dwindling production rates, loss of soil fertility, and qualitative and quantitative deterioration of both surface and ground water bodies. Recently, during the past two decades, severe climate changes are further pushing the Pakistan's wheat-rice system towards its limits. This necessitates a careful analysis of the current crop water requirements and water footprints (both green and blue) to project the future trends under the most likely climate change phenomenon. This was done by using the FAO developed CROPWAT model v 8.0, coupled with the statistically-downscaled climate projections from the 8 Global Circulation Models (GCMs), for the two future time slices, 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080), under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The wheat-rice production system of Punjab, Pakistan was considered as a case study in exploration of how the changing climate might influence the crop water requirements and water footprints of the two major crops. Under the worst, most likely future scenario of temperature rise and rainfall reduction, the crop water requirements and water footprints, especially blue, increased, owing to the elevated irrigation demands originating from the accelerated evapotranspiration rates. A probable increase in rainfall as envisaged by some GCMs may partly alleviate the adverse impacts of the temperature rise but the higher uncertainties associated with the predicated rainfall patterns is worth considering before reaching a final conclusion. The total water footprints were continuously increasing implying that future climate would profoundly influence the crop evapotranspiration demands. The results highlighted the significance of the irrigation water availability in order to sustain and improve the wheat-rice production system of Punjab, Pakistan.

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Evaluation of mode-shape linearization for HFBB analysis of real tall buildings

  • Tse, K.T.;Yu, X.J.;Hitchcock, P.A.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.423-441
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    • 2014
  • The high frequency base balance (HFBB) technique is a convenient and relatively fast wind tunnel testing technique for predicting wind-induced forces for tall building design. While modern tall building design has seen a number architecturally remarkable buildings constructed recently, the characteristics of those buildings are significantly different to those that were common when the HFBB technique was originally developed. In particular, the prediction of generalized forces for buildings with 3-dimensional mode shapes has a number of inherent uncertainties and challenges that need to be overcome to accurately predict building loads and responses. As an alternative to the more conventional application of general mode shape correction factors, an analysis methodology, referred to as the linear-mode-shape (LMS) method, has been recently developed to allow better estimates of the generalized forces by establishing a new set of centers at which the translational mode shapes are linear. The LMS method was initially evaluated and compared with the methods using mode shape correction factors for a rectangular building, which was wind tunnel tested in isolation in an open terrain for five incident wind angles at $22.5^{\circ}$ increments from $0^{\circ}$ to $90^{\circ}$. The results demonstrated that the LMS method provides more accurate predictions of the wind-induced loads and building responses than the application of mode shape correction factors. The LMS method was subsequently applied to a tall building project in Hong Kong. The building considered in the current study is located in a heavily developed business district and surrounded by tall buildings and mixed terrain. The HFBB results validated the versatility of the LMS method for the structural design of an actual tall building subjected to the varied wind characteristics caused by the surroundings. In comparison, the application of mode shape correction factors in the HFBB analysis did not directly take into account the influence of the site specific characteristics on the actual wind loads, hence their estimates of the building responses have a higher variability.

Estimation of Optimal Training Period for the Deep-Learning LSTM Model to Forecast CMIP5-based Streamflow (CMIP5 기반 하천유량 예측을 위한 딥러닝 LSTM 모형의 최적 학습기간 산정)

  • Chun, Beom-Seok;Lee, Tae-Hwa;Kim, Sang-Woo;Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Jung, Young-Hun;Do, Jong-Won;Shin, Yong-Chul
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we suggested the optimal training period for predicting the streamflow using the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model based on the deep learning and CMIP5 (The fifth phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project) future climate scenarios. To validate the model performance of LSTM, the Jinan-gun (Seongsan-ri) site was selected in this study. We comfirmed that the LSTM-based streamflow was highly comparable to the measurements during the calibration (2000 to 2002/2014 to 2015) and validation (2003 to 2005/2016 to 2017) periods. Additionally, we compared the LSTM-based streamflow to the SWAT-based output during the calibration (2000~2015) and validation (2016~2019) periods. The results supported that the LSTM model also performed well in simulating streamflow during the long-term period, although small uncertainties exist. Then the SWAT-based daily streamflow was forecasted using the CMIP5 climate scenario forcing data in 2011~2100. We tested and determined the optimal training period for the LSTM model by comparing the LSTM-/SWAT-based streamflow with various scenarios. Note that the SWAT-based streamflow values were assumed as the observation because of no measurements in future (2011~2100). Our results showed that the LSTM-based streamflow was similar to the SWAT-based streamflow when the training data over the 30 years were used. These findings indicated that training periods more than 30 years were required to obtain LSTM-based reliable streamflow forecasts using climate change scenarios.

Tunnel wall convergence prediction using optimized LSTM deep neural network

  • Arsalan, Mahmoodzadeh;Mohammadreza, Taghizadeh;Adil Hussein, Mohammed;Hawkar Hashim, Ibrahim;Hanan, Samadi;Mokhtar, Mohammadi;Shima, Rashidi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.545-556
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    • 2022
  • Evaluation and optimization of tunnel wall convergence (TWC) plays a vital role in preventing potential problems during tunnel construction and utilization stage. When convergence occurs at a high rate, it can lead to significant problems such as reducing the advance rate and safety, which in turn increases operating costs. In order to design an effective solution, it is important to accurately predict the degree of TWC; this can reduce the level of concern and have a positive effect on the design. With the development of soft computing methods, the use of deep learning algorithms and neural networks in tunnel construction has expanded in recent years. The current study aims to employ the long-short-term memory (LSTM) deep neural network predictor model to predict the TWC, based on 550 data points of observed parameters developed by collecting required data from different tunnelling projects. Among the data collected during the pre-construction and construction phases of the project, 80% is randomly used to train the model and the rest is used to test the model. Several loss functions including root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to assess the performance and precision of the applied method. The results of the proposed models indicate an acceptable and reliable accuracy. In fact, the results show that the predicted values are in good agreement with the observed actual data. The proposed model can be considered for use in similar ground and tunneling conditions. It is important to note that this work has the potential to reduce the tunneling uncertainties significantly and make deep learning a valuable tool for planning tunnels.

Onshore and Offshore Gas Hydrate Production Tests (육상 및 해상 가스하이드레이트 생산시험에 대한 고찰)

  • Lee, Sung-Rock;Kim, Se-Joon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.275-289
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    • 2014
  • Recent scaled-up onshore and offshore field production tests revealed that the expectancy to produce gas from the gas hydrate deposits is gradually increasing, recognizing its potentials as one of the future energy resources. The total produced gas was approximately $480m^3$ by the hot water circulation method for 6 days' operation in Mallik 2002 project in Canada. In Mallik 2006-2008 project, the gas was successfully produced stably by the depressurization method for 6 days, up to $13,000m^3$ cumulatively. The depressurization method applied in the Mallik test was revealed as an effective way to produce gas from gas hydrates. The Alaska North Slope field trial in 2012 to inject mixed gas of $CO_2$ and $N_2$ to exchange $CH_4$ was successfully completed for the first time to produce maximum $1,270m^3$ per day. The remarkable achievement is that Japan has completed first offshore production test in the Eastern Nankai Trough, and produced approximately $120,000m^3$ of methane by the depressurization method for 6 days in March 2013. The technical challenges and uncertainties obtained from Nankai Trough production test give Korea more considerations in the aspects of well completion, reservoir formation and seafloor stability, sand control, flow assurance, and etc., due to the different geological environments and geomechnical properties in Ulleung Basin in Korea.

Introduction of InsurTech and Analysis of Re-Entry into Chinese Insurance Market for Korean Insurance Companies (인슈어테크 도입과 한국 보험회사의 중국 보험시장 재진출 전략 분석 연구)

  • Hwang, Ki-Sik;Choi, Sin-Young;Kim, Se-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.1147-1152
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    • 2018
  • In the recent, Chinese insurance market has taken a introduction of InsurTech. It is a combination of insurance and fintech. This means that the policyholder design their own insurance and take out the policy on-line without insurance planner. This trend is remarkable issue. Growth rate of InsurTech in China have significantly been growing. In addition, Chinese insurance market has kept generally stable and fast growth rate, although Chinese forecasting economic growth is subject to massive uncertainties. Nevertheless, the increase in the number of Korean insurance companies fails to settle into Chinese insurance market due to lack of awareness about newness of Chinese insurance market. Moreover, Korean insurance company in China or planning to enter are not prepared for InsurTech yet. Chinese insurance market is valuable for Korean insurance companies. This paper suggests implications of re-entry into Chinese insurance market to Korean insurance companies by analyzing policies which could make environment to endorse Chinese insurtech and case of Chinese insurtech companies.

Strategies for Multilateral Development Banks Utilization to Enhance International Construction Competitiveness (해외건설 수주경쟁력 강화를 위한 다자간개발은행 활용 방안)

  • Sohn, Tae-Hong;Jung, Chang-Goo;Jang, Hyoun-Seung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.5D
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    • pp.493-498
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    • 2012
  • Korean construction companies have maintained stable market share based on high technology and cost competitiveness although international construction market has been stalled due to increasing global economy uncertainties. However, Korean construction companies have relied heavily on the general types of projects in Middle East and Asia although the portion of different types of projects such as Build-Transfer-Operate (BTO), Build-Transfer-Lease (BTL), and Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) has been increasing in the market. When delivering huge projects requiring contractors deal with activities from project planning to operation, securing finance sources and profitability is deemed critical. Therefore, Korean construction companies need more attentions on the construction market supported by Multilateral Development Banks. However, Korean construction companies have not utilized effective strategies for the market entry and also government supportive policies are not useful enough to help construction companies. This study aims both to analyze the contract structure of Korean construction companies for presenting critical factors that need to be prepared and to suggest various methods that can be applied to support construction companies that have much interest in the Multilateral Development Banks. According to the results of study, it is important that Korean government provide structural information system, make a specialized organization, prevent over-heating among Korean construction companies, and collaborate with Official Development Agency. In addition, it appeared that the fairness and financial stability of project have recognized main advantages of the Multilateral Development Banks.

Balancing Water Supply Reliability, Flood Hazard Mitigation and Environmental Resilience in Large River Systems

  • Goodwin, Peter
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.1-1
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    • 2016
  • Many of the world's large ecosystems are severely stressed due to population growth, water quality and quantity problems, vulnerability to flood and drought, and the loss of native species and cultural resources. Consequences of climate change further increase uncertainties about the future. These major societal challenges must be addressed through innovations in governance, policy, and ways of implementing management strategies. Science and engineering play a critical role in helping define possible alternative futures that could be achieved and the possible consequences to economic development, quality of life, and sustainability of ecosystem services. Science has advanced rapidly during the past decade with the emergence of science communities coalescing around 'Grand Challenges' and the maturation of how these communities function has resulted in large interdisciplinary research networks. An example is the River Experiment Center of KICT that engages researchers from throughout Korea and the world. This trend has been complemented by major advances in sensor technologies and data synthesis to accelerate knowledge discovery. These factors combine to allow scientific debate to occur in a more open and transparent manner. The availability of information and improved communication of scientific and engineering issues is raising the level of dialogue at the science-policy interface. However, severe challenges persist since scientific discovery does not occur on the same timeframe as management actions, policy decisions or at the pace sometimes expected by elected officials. Common challenges include the need to make decisions in the face of considerable uncertainty, ensuring research results are actionable and preventing science being used by special interests to delay or obsfucate decisions. These challenges are explored in the context of examples from the United States, including the California Bay-Delta system. California transfers water from the wetter northern part of the state to the drier southern part of the state through the Central Valley Project since 1940 and this was supplemented by the State Water Project in 1973. The scale of these activities is remarkable: approximately two thirds of the population of Californians rely on water from the Delta, these waters also irrigate up to 45% of the fruits & vegetables produced in the US, and about 80% of California's commercial fishery species live in or migrate through the Bay-Delta. This Delta region is a global hotspot for biodiversity that provides habitat for over 700 species, but is also a hotspot for the loss of biodiversity with more than 25 species currently listed by the Endangered Species Act. Understanding the decline of the fragile ecosystem of the Bay-Delta system and the potential consequences to economic growth if water transfers are reduced for the environment, the California State Legislature passed landmark legislation in 2009 (CA Water Code SS 85054) that established "Coequal goals of providing a more reliable water supply for California and protecting, restoring, and enhancing the Delta ecosystem". The legislation also stated that "The coequal goals shall be achieved in a manner that protects and enhances the unique cultural, recreational, natural resource, and agricultural values of the Delta as an evolving place." The challenges of integrating policy, management and scientific research will be described through this and other international examples.

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A Study on Risks in China's Foreign Invested Water BOT Projects (중국 외국인투자 수처리 BOT 사업 리스크 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Choi, Jae-Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3D
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    • pp.295-302
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    • 2010
  • Since the late 1990s, the BOT mode in China has been extensively used in the water sector in order to attract private investment, improve technical and operational efficiency, and expand the coverage of water services. The BOT mode has been hailed as this provides a win-win structure between the government and private players through formalized procedures and an optimal risk allocation. However, recent market analyses show that some foreign investors are reluctant to participate in the market or even retreat due to uncertainties and risks in the market. This study aims to explore various risks in the Chinese water BOT market based on the thorough literature review, fieldwork, and the case studies on the two wholly foreign-owned BOT water projects: the Chengdu No. 6 and the Shanghai Dachang Water Supply BOT projects. The research results indicate that the Chinese BOT market embraces high risks in political, institutional and legal, and financial systems. The key to a successful takeoff of the BOT mode in the Chinese water market depends on the extent to which the government will be able to remove risky factors in political, institutional and legal, and financing systems. This research outcome will provide a useful reference to the Korean construction companies which consider expanding business to overseas water markets in the form of public private partnership.