• Title/Summary/Keyword: Project Assessment

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Future drought risk assessment under CMIP6 GCMs scenarios

  • Thi, Huong-Nguyen;Kim, Jin-Guk;Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kang, Dong-Won;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.305-305
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    • 2022
  • A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

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Comparative analysis of simulated runoff extreme values of SWAT and LSTM (SWAT 및 LSTM의 모의 유출량 극값 비교분석)

  • Chae, Seung Taek;Song, Young Hoon;Kim, Jin Hyuck;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.365-365
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    • 2022
  • 강우에 따른 유역 내 유출량은 수문순환에서 중요한 요소 중 하나이며, 과거부터 강우-유출 모델링을 위한 여러 물리적 수문모형들이 개발되어왔다. 또한 최근 딥러닝 기술을 기반으로한 강우-유출 모델링 접근 방식이 유효함을 입증하는 여러 연구가 수행됨에 따라 딥러닝을 기반으로한 유출량 모의 연구도 활발히 진행되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 물리적 수문모형인 SWAT(Soil Water Assessment Tool)과 딥러닝 기법 중 하나인 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)을 사용하여 연구대상지 유출량을 모의했으며, 두 모형에 의해 모의 된 유출량의 극값을 비교 분석했다. 연구대상지로는 영산강 유역을 선정했으며, 영산강 유역의 과거 기간의 기후 변수 모의를 위해 CMIP(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)6 GCM(General Circulation Model)을 사용했다. GCM을 사용하여 모의 된 기후 변수들은 영산강 유역 내 기상관측소의 과거 기간 관측 값을 기반으로 분위사상법을 사용하여 편이보정 됐다. GCM에 의해 모의 된 기후 변수 및 SWAT, LSTM에 의해 모의 된 유출량은 각각 영산강 유역 내 기상관측소 및 수위관측소의 관측 값을 기반으로 재현성을 평가했다. SWAT 및 LSTM을 사용하여 모의 된 유출량의 극값은 GEV(General Extreme Value) 분포를 사용하여 추정하였다. 결과적으로 GCM의 기후 변수 모의 성능은 과거 기간 관측 값과 비교했을 때 편이보정 후에서 상당히 향상되었다. 유출량 모의 결과의 경우 과거 기간 유출량의 관측 값과 비교했을 때 LSTM의 모의 유출량이 SWAT보다 과거 기간 유출량을 보다 근접하게 모의했으며, 극값 모의 성능의 경우 또한 LSTM이 SWAT보다 높은 성능을 보였다.

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The Opportunities and Challenges of Implementing BEAM Plus in Hong Kong from the Perspectives of Government and Developers

  • Lau, Ka-ho;Fu, Man-man;Yim, Yik-fung;Zayed, Tarek;Sun, Yi
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2020.12a
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    • pp.333-342
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    • 2020
  • Due to the enhancing environmental concerns worldwide with the need of increasing demand for sustainability of building design, maintenance and operation, key stakeholders including the government and developers in many countries strike for the benefits in implementing the green design and building concepts in constructing, infrastructure as well as the buildings. Different countries have their standards or certifications for green buildings while the adoption rate of BEAM-Plus in HK is relatively less compared with other developed countries such as Europe, USA and Japan. Therefore, in the present research, BEAM-Plus, the beginning assessment method of green standard implemented in HK, will be mainly discussed. Current situation of BEAM-Plus implementation in HK will be reviewed and then adopt a systematic approach via literature review and research paper, questionnaire with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to depict the opportunities and challenges from the perspective of government and developers regarding implementing BEAM-Plus in HK and thus investigate the implementation gaps. It is found that for both the macro level of opportunity and challenge, the most important criterion is political, in which the weighting value are 0.3114 and 0.2321 respectively. It is obvious that government plays a critical and significant role in affecting the development of BEAM plus. Technological difficulty is also an important factor that challenging and hindering the implementation of BEAM plus, the weighting value is 0.2194 under challenge hierarchy. More experts and professionals should be imported to Hong Kong to enhance the technique is building green buildings. At the end of this paper, solutions and actions will also be suggested and concluded in alleviating the challenges. Finally, solutions and actions are suggested and concluded in alleviating the challenges. Findings from this research can guide developers to consider adopting green elements, government and Green Building Council in HK to review green buildings' policy.

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The Success Factors for Self-Service Business Intelligence System: Cases of Korean Companies (사용자 주도 비즈니스 인텔리전스 성공요인 고찰: 한국 기업 사례를 중심으로)

  • JungIm Lee;Soyoung Yoo;Ingoo Han
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2023
  • Traditional Business Intelligence environment is limited to support the rapidly changing businesses and the exponential growth of data in both volume and complexity of data. Companies should shift their business intelligence environment into Self-Service Business Intelligence (SSBI) environment in order to make smarter and faster decisions. However, firms seem to face various challenges in implementing and leveraging the effective business intelligence system, and academics do not provide sufficient studies related including the success factors of SSBI. This study analyzes the three cases of Korean companies in depth, their development process and the assessment of business intelligence, based on the theoretical model on the key success factors of business intelligence systems. The comparative analysis of the three cases including project managers' interviews and performance evaluations provide rich implications for the successful adoption and the use of business intelligence systems of firms. The study is expected to provide useful references for firms to fully leverage the effects of business intelligence systems and upgrade towards self-service business intelligence systems.

Empirical Examination of Determinants Affecting Safety Incidents in Building Construction (건축공사 안전사고에 대한 현장 요인별 영향력 분석)

  • Hur, Youn-Kyoung;Lee, Seung-Woo;Yoo, Wi-Sung;Song, Tae-Geun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.583-593
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    • 2023
  • For a holistic and precise assessment of safety benchmarks within a construction venture, it's paramount to delineate between the intrinsic features of the construction and its real-time, on-site performance metrics. In this study, we delved into genuine accident instances to discern the interplay between these construction attributes and on-ground performance determinants in relation to safety mishaps, employing the binomial logit analytical framework. Our scrutiny underscored that construction expenditure profoundly modulates the likelihood of fatal occurrences. Notably, variables pertinent to on-site safety protocols wielded considerable influence over both fatal mishaps and accidents implicating multiple personnel. These revelations intimate that while ascertaining the safety quotient of a construction initiative, a mere classification and recalibration based on fiscal dimensions can elucidate much. Yet, a comprehensive safety appraisal necessitates transcending quantitative indices, such as frequency of mishaps or casualty rates, to encapsulate the multifaceted interventions and strategies adopted at the construction locale.

Assessment of Quality Assurance in the Lifting and Assembly Phase of Modular Construction: An Importance-Performance Analysis Approach (중요도-성취도 분석을 이용한 모듈러 건축프로젝트 현장설치 및 양중 단계의 품질 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.595-605
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    • 2023
  • With the escalating prevalence of modular construction projects, there is a concurrent surge in scholarly and industrial intrigue in this domain, leading to a broadened spectrum of its applications. Modular construction, inherently facilitated by controlled factory settings, boasts the capability to consistently deliver edifices of superior quality. To optimize this advantage, the judicious integration of quality assurance methodologies during the site-specific phases of lifting and assembly is non-negotiable. This research embarked on a survey directed at project stakeholders, aiming to gauge the perceived significance and efficaciousness of prevailing quality preservation and oversight protocols during the aforementioned site stages, subsequently employing the Importance-Performance Analysis(IPA) for data interpretation. The findings elucidated that, while a majority of quality assurance procedures were adeptly executed, perceptual disparities existed among stakeholders regarding certain aspects, prompting recommendations for enhancement. This investigative endeavor lays a foundation, aiding future studies in amplifying the quality assurance cognizance among professionals during modular construction's site-assembly phase.

Method of Multiple Scenario Transformation and Simulation Based Evaluation for Automated Vehicle Assessment (자율주행자동차 평가를 위한 다중 시나리오 변환과 시뮬레이션 기반 평가 방법)

  • Donghyo Kang;Inyoung Kim;Seong-Woo Cho;Ilsoo Yun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.230-245
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    • 2023
  • The importance of evaluating the safety of Automated Vehicles (AV) is increasing with the advances in autonomous driving technology. Accordingly, an evaluation scenario that defines in advance the situations AV may face while driving is being used to conduct efficient stability evaluation. On the other hand, the single scenarios currently used in conventional evaluations address limited situations within short segments. As a result, there are limitations in evaluating continuous situations that occur on real roads. Therefore, this study developed a set of multiple scenarios that allow for continuous evaluation across entire sections of roads with diverse geometric structures to assess the safety of AV. In particular, the conditions for connecting individual scenarios were defined, and a methodology was proposed for developing concrete multiple scenarios based on the scenario evaluation procedure of the PEGASUS project. Furthermore, a simulation was performed to validate the practicality of these multiple scenarios.

Improvement and application of SWMM-ING for carbon reduction in green infrastructure (그린인프라시설의 탄소저감을 위한 SWMM-ING 개선 및 적용성 평가)

  • Young Jun Lee;Chaeyoung Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, as part of the Green New Deal project toward a carbon-neutral society, it is necessary to build a climate-resilient urban environment to green the city, space, and living infrastructure. To this end, SWMM-ING was improved and the model was modified to analyze the carbon reduction effect. In addition, I plan to select target watersheds where urbanization is rapidly progressing and evaluate runoff, non-point pollution, and carbon reduction effects to conduct cost estimation and optimal design review for domestic rainwater circulation green infrastructure. In this study, green infrastructure facilities were selected using SWMM-ING. Various scenarios were presented considering the surface area and annual cost of each green infrastructure facility, and The results show that the scenario derived through the APL2 method was selected as the optimal scenario. In this optimal scenario, a total facility area of 190,517.5 m2 was applied to 7 out of 30 subwatersheds to achieve the target reduction. The target reduction amount was calculated a 23.50 % reduction in runoff and a 26.99 % reduction in pollutant load. Additionally, the annual carbon absorption was analyzed and found to be 385,521 kg/year. I aim to achieve additional carbon reduction effects by achieving the goal of reducing runoff and non-point pollution sources and analyzing annual carbon absorption. Moreover, considering the scale-up of these interventions across the basin, it is believed that an objective assessment of economic viability can be conducted.

Impacts assessment of Climate changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios II. Impacts assessment of hydrologic cycle changes in Yalu River (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 II. 압록강유역의 미래 수문순환 변화 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to assess the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle at a basin level in North Korea. The selected model for this study is MRI-CGCM 3, the one used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, this study adopted the Spatial Disaggregation-Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), which is one of the stochastic downscaling techniques, to conduct the bias correction for climate change scenarios. The comparison between the preapplication and postapplication of the SDQDM supported the study's review on the technique's validity. In addition, as this study determined the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle, it also observed the runoff in North Korea. In predicting such influence, parameters of a runoff model used for the analysis should be optimized. However, North Korea is classified as an ungauged region for its political characteristics, and it was difficult to collect the country's runoff observation data. Hence, the study selected 16 basins with secured high-quality runoff data, and the M-RAT model's optimized parameters were calculated. The study also analyzed the correlation among variables for basin characteristics to consider multicollinearity. Then, based on a phased regression analysis, the study developed an equation to calculate parameters for ungauged basin areas. To verify the equation, the study assumed the Osipcheon River, Namdaecheon Stream, Yongdang Reservoir, and Yonggang Stream as ungauged basin areas and conducted cross-validation. As a result, for all the four basin areas, high efficiency was confirmed with the efficiency coefficients of 0.8 or higher. The study used climate change scenarios and parameters of the estimated runoff model to assess the changes in hydrological cycle processes at a basin level from climate change in the Amnokgang River of North Korea. The results showed that climate change would lead to an increase in precipitation, and the corresponding rise in temperature is predicted to cause elevating evapotranspiration. However, it was found that the storage capacity in the basin decreased. The result of the analysis on flow duration indicated a decrease in flow on the 95th day; an increase in the drought flow during the periods of Future 1 and Future 2; and an increase in both flows for the period of Future 3.

Institutionalization of the Value of Ecosystem services (생태계 서비스 가치의 제도화)

  • Hwang, Eun-Ju;Chun, Jae-Kyong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.337-343
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    • 2017
  • This study is going to contribute the activation of ecosystem services written in the 3rd National Basic Plan for Nature Conservation(2016~2025) in Korea. Meanwhile we considered the benefits that the nature has given to the humankind as free goods or services which we may consume traditionally without due payment therefore. But on account of the expansion of cities and expedition of development, as the carrying capacity of the nature has been breached, people have come to try to restore and enhance artificially such vulnerable capacity. It is necessary to compensate the opportunity cost which the land owners or occupiers have to pay for conservation and maintenance of natural capitals which yield the ecosystem services. Therefore the institutionalization of ecosystem services should be established that the consumers who enjoy such services should share the interest from enjoying services with the land owners or occupiers who produce the ecosystem services, under the legal system which will make it possible to connect the benefit sharing with the conservation of environment. However it is the first task that the present legal system could not realize the fair and equitable benefit sharing between the producers and consumers of ecosystem services. And the second task in such legal system is that the value of ecosystem services could not be fully considered in the process of development planning. According to the analysis of this study, the institutionalization of ecosystem services in the government side and the civilian side could be realized to somewhat extent, although not sufficient. Especially the transactions of ecosystem services through the private contract among stakeholder are possible in the course of development planning or without any relevancy to a development project. The final task in the institutionalization of ecosystem services is how to assess the ecosystem services and to value the economic benefits therefrom on the basis of what kinds of procedures relating to some development processes. To overcome such difficulties, it is necessary that the state, trend and change of ecosystem services confronting with a developing project should be assessed concretely at the threshold of development. It is possible to integrate the ecosystem services into the environmental impact assessment(IEA), not by way of the Act of IEA, but by way of the Decree thereof.