• Journal of Gastric Cancer
• /
• 제21권3호
• /
• pp.236-245
• /
• 2021

Purpose: The numeric N stage has replaced the topographic N stage in the current tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging in gastric carcinoma. However, the usefulness of the topographic N stage in the current TNM staging system is uncertain. We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of the topographic N stage in the current TNM staging system. Materials and Methods: We reviewed the data of 3350 patients with gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy. The anatomic regions of the metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) were classified into 2 groups: perigastric and extra-perigastric. The prognostic value of the anatomic region was analyzed using a multivariate prognostic model with adjustments for the TNM stage. Results: In patients with lymph node metastasis, extra-perigastric metastasis demonstrated significantly worse survival than perigastric metastasis alone (5-year survival rate, 39.6% vs. 73.1%, respectively, P<0.001). Extra-perigastric metastasis demonstrated significantly worse survival within the same pN stage; the multivariate analysis indicated that extra-perigastric metastasis was an independent poor prognostic factor (hazard ratio=1.33; 95% confidence interval=1.01-1.75). The anatomic region of the MLNs improved the goodness-of-fit (likelihood ratio statistics, 4.57; P=0.033) of the prognostic model using the TNM stage. Conclusions: The anatomic region of MLNs has an independent prognostic value in the numeric N stage in the current TNM staging of gastric carcinoma.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권2호
• /
• pp.747-751
• /
• 2015

Background: Stage III colon cancer patients demonstrate diverse clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model in order to better predict their survival. Materials and Methods: From 2004 to 2010, 548 patients were retrospectively analyzed, among whom 328 were defined as the study group and the remaining 220 served as a validation group. Clinico-pathologic features, including age, gender, histological grade, T stage, number of positive lymph nodes, number of harvest lymph nodes, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels and pretreatment neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), were collected. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to detect prognostic factors and multivariate analysis was applied to identify independent examples on which to develop a prognostic model. Finally, the model was further validated with the validation group. Results: Histological grade (p=0.002), T stage (p=0.011), number of positive lymph nodes (p=0.003), number of harvested lymph nodes (p=0.020), CEA (p=0.005), and NLR (p<0.001) were found as prognostic factors while histological grade [RR(relative risk):0.632, 95%CI (Confidence interval) 0.405~0.985, p=0.043], CEA (RR:0.644, 95%CI:0.431~0.964, p=0.033) and NLR (RR:0.384, 95%CI:0.255~0.580, p<0.001) levels were independent. The prognostic model based on these three factors was able to classify patients into high risk, intermediate and low risk groups (p<0.001), both in study and validation groups. Conclusions: Histological grade, pretreatment CEA and NLR levels are independent prognostic factors in stage III colon cancer patients. A prognostic model based on these factors merits attention in future clinical practice.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제13권3호
• /
• pp.1059-1063
• /
• 2012

Objective: Angiogenesis represents a key element in the pathogenesis of malignancy. There are no robust data on prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-targeted therapy. The present study was conducted to establish a prognostic model for patients using an oxaliplatin-based or irinotecan-based chemotherapy plus bevacizumab in metastatic colorectal cancer. Methods: Baseline characteristics and outcomes on 170 patients treated with FOLFIRI or XELOX plus anti-VEGF therapy-naive metastatic colorectal cancer were collected from three Turkey cancer centers. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify independent prognostic factors for OS. Results: The median OS for the whole cohort was 19 months (95% CI, 14.3 to 23.6 months). Three of the seven adverse prognostic factors according to the Anatolian Society of Medical Oncology (ASMO) were independent predictors of short survival: serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) greater than the upper limit of normal (ULN; p<0.001); neutrophils greater than the ULN (p<0.0014); and progression free survival (PFS) less than 6 months (p =0.001). Conclusion: Serum LDH and neutrophil levels were the main prognostic factors in predicting survival, followed by PFS. This model validates incorporation of components of the ASMO model into patient care and clinical trials that use VEGF-targeting agents.

• Genomics & Informatics
• /
• 제16권4호
• /
• pp.32.1-32.7
• /
• 2018

Ovarian cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in gynecological malignancies. Over 70% of ovarian cancer cases are high-grade serous ovarian cancers and have high death rates due to their resistance to chemotherapy. Despite advances in surgical and pharmaceutical therapies, overall survival rates are not good, and making an accurate prediction of the prognosis is not easy because of the highly heterogeneous nature of ovarian cancer. To improve the patient's prognosis through proper treatment, we present a prognostic prediction model by integrating high-dimensional RNA sequencing data with their clinical data through the following steps: gene filtration, pre-screening, gene marker selection, integrated study of selected gene markers and prediction model building. These steps of the prognostic prediction model can be applied to other types of cancer besides ovarian cancer.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제46권6호
• /
• pp.773-782
• /
• 2014

The general path model (GPM) is one approach for performing degradation-based, or Type III, prognostics. The GPM fits a parametric function to the collected observations of a prognostic parameter and extrapolates the fit to a failure threshold. This approach has been successfully applied to a variety of systems when a sufficient number of prognostic parameter observations are available. However, the parametric fit can suffer significantly when few data are available or the data are very noisy. In these instances, it is beneficial to include additional information to influence the fit to conform to a prior belief about the evolution of system degradation. Bayesian statistical approaches have been proposed to include prior information in the form of distributions of expected model parameters. This requires a number of run-to-failure cases with tracked prognostic parameters; these data may not be readily available for many systems. Reliability information and stressor-based (Type I and Type II, respectively) prognostic estimates can provide the necessary prior belief for the GPM. This article presents the Bayesian updating framework to include prior information in the GPM and compares the efficacy of including different information sources on two data sets.

• 환경영향평가
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.109-116
• /
• 2002

The diagnostic and prognostic methods for generating 3 dimensional wind field were comparatively analyzed and 4 dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique by incorporating Automatic Weather System (AWS) into the prognostic methods was discussed for the urban scale air quality model. The A WS covered the urban scale grid distance of 10.6 km and 4.3 km in South Korea and Kyong-in region, respectively. This is representing that AWS for FDDA could be fairly well accommodated in prognostic model with the meso${\gamma}$~ microa scale (~5 km), indicating that the 3 dimensional wind field by FDDA technique could be a useful interpretative tool in urban area for the atmospheric environmental impact assessment.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제17권5호
• /
• pp.2369-2374
• /
• 2016

Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is a cancer group that shares molecular and cellular origin but shows different clinical courses and prognoses. Several prognostic factors have been reported for predicting recurrence for individual patients. This literature review aimed to evaluate prognostic scores for predicting recurrence of DTC. Materials and Methods: A search of the MEDLINE database for articles published until December 2015 was carried out using the terms "thyroid neoplasms AND (recurrent OR persistent) AND (score OR model OR nomogram)". Studies were eligible for review if they indicated the development of prognostic scoring models, derived from a group of independent prognostic factors, in predicting disease recurrence in DTC patients. Results: Of the 308 articles obtained, five were eligible for evaluation. Two scoring models were developed for DTC including both papillary and follicular carcinoma, one for papillary carcinoma, and the other two for papillary microcarcinoma. The number of patients included in the score development cohort ranged from 59 to 1,669. The number of evaluated potential prognostic factors ranged from 4 to 25. Tumor-related factors were the most common factors included in the final scores, with cervical lymph node metastases being the most common. Only two studies showed internal validation of the derived score. Conclusions: There is a paucity of prognostic scores for predicting disease recurrence in patients with DTC, in particular for follicular thyroid carcinoma. Several limitations of the created scores were found. Performance of the scores has not been adequately studied. Comprehensive validation in multiple cohorts is recommended before widespread use.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제13권11호
• /
• pp.5767-5772
• /
• 2012

Introduction: Identification of simple and measurable prognostic factors is an important issue in treatment evaluation of breast cancer. The present study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic role of vascular invasion in lymph node negative breast cancer patients. Methods: in a retrospective design, we analyzed the recorded profiles of the 1,640 patients treated in the breast cancer department of Motahari clinic affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran, from January 1999 to December 2012. Overall and adjusted survivals were evaluated by the Cox proportional hazard model. All the hypotheses were considered two-sided and a p-value of 0.05 or less was considered as statistically significant. Results: Mean age in lymph node negative and positive patients was 50.0 and 49.8 respectively. In lymph node negative patients, the number of nodes, tumor size, lymphatic invasion, vascular invasion, progesterone receptor, and nuclear grade were significant predictors. In lymph node and lymphatic negative patients, vascular invasion also played a significant prognostic role in the survival which was not evident in lymph node negative patients with lymphatic invasion. Discussion: The results of our large cohort study, with long term follow up and using multivariate Cox proportional model and comparative design showed a significant prognostic role of vascular invasion in early breast cancer patients. Vascular invasion as an independent prognostic factor in lymph node negative invasive breast cancer.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권15호
• /
• pp.6255-6259
• /
• 2015

Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic value of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in gallbladder cancer (GBC). Materials and Methods: Serum ALP and GGT levels and clinicopathological parameters were retrospectively evaluated in 199 GBC patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to determine the cut-off values of ALP and GGT. Then, associations with overall survival were assessed by multivariate analysis. Based on the significant factors, a prognostic score model was established. Results: By ROC curve analysis, $ALP{\geq}210U/L$ and $GGT{\geq}43U/L$ were considered elevated. Overall survival for patients with elevated ALP and GGT was significantly worse than for patients within the normal range. Multivariate analysis showed that the elevated ALP, GGT and tumor stage were independent prognostic factors. Giving each positive factor a score of 1, we established a preoperative prognostic score model. Varied outcomes would be significantly distinguished by the different score groups. By further ROC curve analysis, the simple score showed great superiority compared with the widely used TNM staging, each of the ALP or GGT alone, or traditional tumor markers such as CEA, AFP, CA125 and CA199. Conclusions: Elevated ALP and GGT levels were risk predictors in GBC patients. Our prognostic model provides infomration on varied outcomes of patients from different score groups.

• Journal of Gastric Cancer
• /
• 제17권2호
• /
• pp.132-144
• /
• 2017

Purpose: To identify baseline prognostic factors for survival in patients with disease progression, during or after chemotherapy for the treatment of advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer. Materials and Methods: We pooled data from patients randomized between 2009 and 2012 in 2 phase III, global double-blind studies of ramucirumab for the treatment of advanced gastric or GEJ adenocarcinoma following disease progression on first-line platinum- and/or fluoropyrimidine-containing therapy (REGARD and RAINBOW). Forty-one key baseline clinical and laboratory factors common in both studies were examined. Model building started with covariate screening using univariate Cox models (significance level=0.05). A stepwise multivariable Cox model identified the final prognostic factors (entry+exit significance level=0.01). Cox models were stratified by treatment and geographic region. The process was repeated to identify baseline prognostic quality of life (QoL) parameters. Results: Of 1,020 randomized patients, 953 (93%) patients without any missing covariates were included in the analysis. We identified 12 independent prognostic factors of poor survival: 1) peritoneal metastases; 2) Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score 1; 3) the presence of a primary tumor; 4) time to progression since prior therapy <6 months; 5) poor/unknown tumor differentiation; abnormally low blood levels of 6) albumin, 7) sodium, and/or 8) lymphocytes; and abnormally high blood levels of 9) neutrophils, 10) aspartate aminotransferase (AST), 11) alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and/or 12) lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). Factors were used to devise a 4-tier prognostic index (median overall survival [OS] by risk [months]: high=3.4, moderate=6.4, medium=9.9, and low=14.5; Harrell's C-index=0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.68). Addition of QoL to the model identified patient-reported appetite loss as an independent prognostic factor. Conclusions: The identified prognostic factors and the reported prognostic index may help clinical decision-making, patient stratification, and planning of future clinical studies.