• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제38권3호
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• pp.159-168
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• 2015

Aggregate Production Planning determines levels of production, human resources, inventory to maximize company's profits and fulfill customer's demands based on demand forecasts. Since performance of aggregate production planning heavily depends on accuracy of given forecasting demands, choosing an accurate forecasting method should be antecedent for achieving a good aggregate production planning. Generally, typical forecasting error metrics such as MSE (Mean Squared Error), MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and CFE (Cumulated Forecast Error) are utilized to choose a proper forecasting method for an aggregate production planning. However, these metrics are designed only to measure a difference between real and forecast demands and they are not able to consider any results such as increasing cost or decreasing profit caused by forecasting error. Consequently, the traditional metrics fail to give enough explanation to select a good forecasting method in aggregate production planning. To overcome this limitation of typical metrics for forecasting method this study suggests a new metric, WACFE (Weighted Absolute and Cumulative Forecast Error), to evaluate forecasting methods. Basically, the WACFE is designed to consider not only forecasting errors but also costs which the errors might cause in for Aggregate Production Planning. The WACFE is a product sum of cumulative forecasting error and weight factors for backorder and inventory costs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed metric by conducting intensive experiments with demand data sets from M3-competition. Finally, we showed that the WACFE provides a higher correlation with the total cost than other metrics and, consequently, is a better performance in selection of forecasting methods for aggregate production planning.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.63-76
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• 2006

Marine production forecasting in fisheries is a crucial factor for managing and maintaining fishery resources. Thus this paper aims to generate a forecasting model of total marine production. The most generally method of time series model is to generate the most optimal single forecasting model. But the method could induce a different forecasting results when it does not properly infer a model To overcome the defect, I am trying to propose a single forecasting through multiple time series model. In other word, by comparing and integrating the output resulted from ARIMA and VAR model (which are typical method in a forecasting methodology), I tried to draw a forecasting. It is expected to produce more stable and delicate forecasting prospect than a single model. Through this, I generated 3 models on a yearly and monthly data basis and then here I present a forecasting from 2006 to 2010 through comparing and integrating 3 models. In conclusion, marine production is expected to show a decreasing tendency for the coming years.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.55-61
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• 1986

Mathematical forecasting models and a practical computer based forecasting system are developed for planning production in a manufacturing and distribution network. The forecasting system works at the highest level of a hierarchical computer-based decision support system consisting of the forecasting system, an aggregate planning system and a shop floor scheduling system. The dynamics of business operations for an actual company have been considered to make this study a unique comprehensive analysis of a real world forecasting problem.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.137-145
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• 2020

Various elements of Fabrication (FAB), mass production of existing products, new product development and process improvement evaluation might increase the complexity of production process when products are produced at the same time. As a result, complex production operation makes it difficult to predict production capacity of facilities. In this environment, production forecasting is the basic information used for production plan, preventive maintenance, yield management, and new product development. In this paper, we tried to develop a multiple linear regression analysis model in order to improve the existing production capacity forecasting method, which is to estimate production capacity by using a simple trend analysis during short time periods. Specifically, we defined overall equipment effectiveness of facility as a performance measure to represent production capacity. Then, we considered the production capacities of interrelated facilities in the FAB production process during past several weeks as independent regression variables in order to reflect the impact of facility maintenance cycles and production sequences. By applying variable selection methods and selecting only some significant variables, we developed a multiple linear regression forecasting model. Through a numerical experiment, we showed the superiority of the proposed method by obtaining the mean residual error of 3.98%, and improving the previous one by 7.9%.

• 산업공학
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.222-236
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• 1999

This paper presents a design and implementation of an intelligent-integrated production-logistics systems. The situation considered here is that there are multiple manufacturing plants and multiple distribution centers. Effective distribution resource and production planning are required to reduce inventory cost and to avoid inventory shortage. We propose an intelligent forecasting scheme of each distribution centers, adaptive inventory replenishment planning, distribution resource planning, and integrated production planning system. In forecasting a huge number of on-line model identification is performed using neural network approximation capability. An efficient adaptive replenishment planning and distribution resource planning are also presented in connection with forecasting scheme. An appropriate production is also requested based on production lead-time and the results of distribution planning. Experimental simulations are presented to verify the proposed approach using real data.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.333-347
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• 2000

We employed various econometic methods to estimate the production index elasticity and the price elasticity of elecricity demand in Korea and compared the forecasting power of those methods. Cointegration models (ADL model, Engle-Granger model, Full Informtion Maximum Likelihood method by Johansen and Juselius) and Dynamic OLS by Stock and Watson were considered. The forecasting power test shows that Dynamic OLS has the best forecasting power. According to Dynamic OLS, the production index elasticity and the price elasticity of electricity demand in Korea are 0.13 and -0.40, respectively.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.462-470
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• 2012

The availability and efficient use of the feed resources in India are the primary drivers to maximize productivity of Indian livestock. Feed security is vital to the livestock management, extent of use, conservation and productivity enhancement. Assessment and forecasting of livestock feed resources are most important for effective planning and policy making. In the present study, 40 years of data on crop production, land use pattern, rainfall, its deviation from normal, area under crop and yield of crop were collected and modeled to forecast the likely production of feed resources for the next 20 years. The higher order auto-regressive (AR) models were used to develop efficient forecasting models. Use of climatic variables (actual rainfall and its deviation from normal) in combination with non-climatic factors like area under each crop, yield of crop, lag period etc., increased the efficiency of forecasting models. From the best fitting models, the current total dry matter (DM) availability in India was estimated to be 510.6 million tonnes (mt) comprising of 47.2 mt from concentrates, 319.6 mt from crop residues and 143.8 mt from greens. The availability of DM from dry fodder, green fodder and concentrates is forecasted at 409.4, 135.6 and 61.2 mt, respectively, for 2030.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• 제36권9호
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• pp.966-973
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• 2003

The purpose of this study was to investigate the utilization level of forecasting methods in contract foodservice management companies. Questionnaires were distributed and collected from 30 foodservice management companies contracted with universities and 49 university foodservices in Seoul and Kyungki area. Statistical data analysis was performed using SPSS/WIN 10.0 based on the production records of Yonsei University foodservices and the weather reports from a meteorological observatory. The results of this study were as follows: 1) The objectives of the fore-casting systems were identified as saving costs through eliminating the leftover, meeting the customer demands, and improving efficiency in food preparation.2) All of the university foodservices were already performing the forecasting methods but in foodservice management companies as a whole,89.7 percents were applying the method and only 55.2 percents had the separate forecasting department. 3) A large number of foodservice staffs in the head office (65.5％) answered that they often utilized intuitive estimates based on the past experiences and records for forecasting while 65.3% managing staffs in the university foodservices answered the same.4) Both in the head office and university foodservices, actual number of meals served were recorded. In the head office, mostly estimated numbers and actual numbers of meals were recorded while estimated, prepared, and actual numbers of meals served were recorded for most of the cases in university foodservices. 5) The primary factors considered for forecasting were the actual production records for the last month, the customer preference for the selected menu items, and the specific day of the week.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.66-78
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• 2012

This paper proposes a computation model of the quantity supplied to optimize inventory costs for the fast fashion. The model is based on a forecasting, a store and production capacity, an assortment planning and quick response model for fast fashion retailers, respectively. It is critical to develop a standardized business process and mathematical model to respond market trends and customer requirements in the fast fashion industry. Thus, we define a product supply model that consists of forecasting, assortment plan, store capacity plan based on the visual merchandising, and production capacity plan considering quick response of the fast fashion retailers. For the forecasting, the decomposition method and multiple regression model are applied. In order to optimize inventory costs. A heuristic algorithm for the quantity supplied is designed based on the assortment plan, store capacity plan and production capacity plan. It is shown that the heuristic algorithm produces a feasible solution which outperforms the average inventory cost of a global fast fashion company.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.61-69
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• 2015

이 연구에서는 국내 총 화물물동량에 대한 5개 계량경제모형들의 예측정확도를 비교한다. 적용된 5개 모형은 통상최소자승모형, 부분조정모형, 축소된 자기회귀분포시차모형, 벡터자기회귀 모형, 시간변동계수모형이다. 모형의 추정과 예측은 1970-2011년 동안의 연간 국내 화물물동량 자료와 광공업생산지수를 이용하여 수행되었다. 5개 모형은 반복적인 예측방법을 이용하여 1년 후, 3년 후, 5년 후 예측성능이 비교되었다. 추가적으로 장래변동성의 크기에 따라 두 예측기간으로 나누어 예측정확도를 비교하였고, 결과적으로 시간변동계수모형은 변동을 갖는 예측기간에 대해서 가장 높은 정확도를, 반면에 벡터자기회귀 모형은 점진적인 변화를 갖는 예측기간에 대해서 다른 모형에 비해 우수한 성능을 보여주는 것으로 분석되었다.