• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probit analysis

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Determinants of Participation in Environment-Friendly Agricultural Production Organization - Focusing on Chungnam Area - (친환경농업 생산조직 참여결정 요인분석 - 충남지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Seo, Hwan-Seok;Hwang, Jae-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.271-288
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    • 2019
  • It has continuously promoted to scale up the agricultural management body in order to cope with the market-opening pressure such as the UR negotiation, the DDA negotiation, and more conclusions of FTAs and to enhance the competitiveness of our agriculture. This study evaluated the factors associated with production organization participation centered on environmentally-friendly agriculture farmers in order to improve the production efficiency of environmentally-friendly agriculture in the aspect of production. In order to achieve this objective, this study evaluated the factors that contributed to participating in an organization using the bivariate probit model focusing on environmentally-friendly agriculture farmers in Chungnam. This study examined the validity and reliability of the study model through exploratory factor analysis. The results of factor analyses identified four factors: "distribution", "production", "organization operation", and "social capital". The results of the bivariate probit model showed that distribution significantly affected production activities and distribution, organization operation, agricultural income, and gender significantly influenced sale activities. Environmentally-friendly production organization had not been able to provide the productive support that was needed for local farmers to produce environmentally-friendly agricultural products in a region. Additionally, farming education did not provide the information needed by the farmers. Although producers had a network within a production organization, it was operated mainly for administrators. Therefore, participants felt somewhat lacking. This study identified the level of organization of producer organizations in Chungnam area, where environmentally-friendly agriculture is well activated. This study suggested implications for future production organization participation by evaluating factors affecting participation quantitatively.

Developing the Accident Injury Severity on a Field of Construction Work Using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 적용한 공사장 교통 사고심각도 분석)

  • Hong, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2011
  • The traffic accidents at a construction site, which happen due to construction vehicles' frequent access to a construction site, its subsequent conflicts with ordinary vehicles and pedestrians, and inappropriate installation & management of traffic security facilities, have not many proportions in all traffic accidents, but obviously, the accident damage is quite serious when comparing the level of the fatal per one accident. This research conducted an analysis of traffic accident injury severity using Ordered Probit Model in relation to 241 traffic accident cases that occurred caused by construction sites among the traffic accidents that took place in Seoul and Gyeoggi-do region for two years from 2006 until 2007. As a result, the significant variables enough to explain traffic accident injury severity were analyzed to be the state of road surface, linear shape of an accident spot & whether the damaging car belongs to the vehicle for construction, and whether vehicles have access to a construction site at the time of an accident. Through this, this research found out some fact as follows: first, there need to be more aggressive management of the vehicles for construction and a year-round placement of the manpower who can control vehicular access to a construction site. Second, it is necessary to get drivers to recognize the fact that there exists a construction site on the construction section which is on the border of curved roads in advance to prevent a traffic accident, helping to reduce socioeconomic loss & costs incurred by a traffic accident.

An Analysis of the Effects of Water Pollution on Life Satisfaction in Korea (한국의 수질오염이 생활만족도에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석)

  • Kim, Soo Jung;Kang, Sung Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.124-140
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    • 2016
  • Using the Korea Labor Institute Panel Study(KLIPS), this study investigates the impacts of water pollution on life satisfaction in Korea. Panel random-effects ordered probit model is used to consider the ordered property of life satisfaction data and heterogeneity of panel data. The proxy variables to reflect the degree of water pollution are biochemical oxygen demand(BOD) and total phosphorus(TP). In addition to the environmental variables above, other determinants used in various studies on life satisfaction such as economic, social, and demographic characteristics are included. Estimation results show that water pollution is negative and significant for life satisfaction. Other indicators such as income, age, house ownership, gender, education are positively related while urban residence and own business are shown to be negatively related.

Analysis of Intra-city Bus Demand during Rainfall Using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 강우시 시내버스 이용수요의 변동분석)

  • Jeong, Heon-Yeong;Song, Geum-Yeong;Kim, Gwang-Uk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2011
  • After implementing "Semi-public management system of intra-city bus", the burden of financial aid for unprofitable routes is on the increase in Busan metro city. It becomes a heavy burden on the local finance, which needs to be resolved for improving the intra-bus system. The rainfall is one of the factors influencing the demands for intra-bus in urban transportation. Motivated by this fact, this study investigates the impact of rainfall on the intra-city bus demand. Actual bus users are surveyed on their patterns and recognition of using the bus according to the amount of rainfall. A rainfall forecast model using ordered probit model is presented, and the elasticity of the intra-city bus utilization to the amount of rainfall is also analyzed. The resulting findings could be applied to promote the use of intra-city buses and also be utilized as basic data for other studies to improve the intra-city bus system.

An Exploratory Study on User Characteristics of Social Media: From the Perspective of Consumer Innovativeness (소셜미디어 이용자 특성에 대한 탐색적 연구: 소비자혁신성을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Hyunchul;Kim, Yongwon;Kim, Yongkyu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.195-206
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to analyze the effect of consumer characteristics such as consumer innovativeness on using popular social media in Korea. Social media usage is estimated by probit and multinomial probit model with user characteristics using Korea media panel data of 2019. According to the analysis, users with hedonoc innovativeness are likely to use social media, while users with cognitive innovativeness are not likely to use it. Regarding individual social media usage, functional innovativeness increases the probability of using Kakaostory, and hedonic innovativeness increases the likelihood of using Instagram. However, cognitive innovativeness decreases the probability of using Kakaosotry and Naver Band. This study gives insights into finding out specific social media for marketing certain products with innovativeness. In future research, it may be worthwhile to analyze under the assumption that a social media user is using several social media simultaneously.

Predicting Recessions Using Yield Spread in Emerging Economies: Regime Switch vs. Probit Analysis (금리스프레드를 이용한 신흥경제 국가의 불황 예측: 국면 전환 모형 vs. 프로빗 모형)

  • Park, Kihyun;Mohsin, Mohammed
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.53-73
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    • 2012
  • In this study we investigate the ability of the yield spread to predict economic recessions in two Asian economies. For our purpose we use the data from two emerging economies (South Korea and Thailand) that are also known for their openness in terms of exports and imports. We employ both two-regime Markov-Switching model (MS) and three-regime MS model to estimate the probability of recessions during Asian crisis. We found that the yield spread is confirmed to be a reliable recession predictor for Thailand but not for South Korea. The three-regime MS model is better for capturing the Asian financial crisis than two-regime MS model. We also tried to find the duration of economic expansions and recessions. We tested the hypothesis of asymmetric movements of business cycles. The MS results are also compared with that of the standard probit model for comparison. The MS model does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the yield spread in forecasting business cycles.

Consequence Analysis of the Fire & Explosion on the Flammable Liquid Handling Facility and LPG Station (제 4류 위험물 취급소 및 LPG 충전소의 화재$\cdot$폭발 피해 영향분석)

  • Lee Su-Kyung;Lee Chang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.3 no.2 s.7
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 1999
  • The XX company that is handling the class IV hazardous materials, located in Bu-Chon City and the LPG station in front of the XX company which is about 20 meters apart, was chosen as the standard model for this study In carrying out the consequence analysis, PHAST and Super-Chems were used for the study and utilizing the output of the simulation, we have evaluated the consequences throughout the probit analysis and explosion overpressure analysis. In case of Acetone, the effect distance of the damage on facilities-that is the result of radiation heat flux of $37.5kW/m^2$ by TNO model-is 68.51m by PHAST model and 40.93m by Super-Chem model. The risk assessment of the LPG station which is based on the explosion resulted as the analysis of the fire ball showed the diameter 125.2m, the height 206.2m and the duration 11.28sec and the effect distance for the radiant heat flux $37.5kW/m^2$ was 137.0m.

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The Risk Analysis for the Rail Transport of Explosives (폭약류의 철도수송에 따른 리스크 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Hean;Song, Dong-Woo;Lee, Su-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2011
  • This study presented quantitative risk analysis in case of transporting explosive materials by railway. Accident types were classified into accidents of in station and in transit. And the study presented an initial value of accident frequency through derailment accident and crushing one according to each type, and drew the results of accident frequency through event tree analysis. Damage impact evaluation used TNT equivalent method and probit analysis method. As the result of risk evaluation, railway transportation of explosive materials passing through areas which are high in population density is appeared to be able to cause a large number of personnel injury when occurring accidents. Specially, the accident of explosive transportation combined with petroleum was forecasted as easily resulting in large explosive accident. Consequently, there is a necessity to reduce consequences by decreasing passage through areas where are high in population density, and take measures for lessening the risks in case of transporting dangerous explosive materials.

Statistical Problems Caused by Sample Censoring and Their Solutions -Focused on the application to consumer research- (표본중도절단에 따른 통계학적 문제와 교정방법에 관한 고찰 -소비자분야 연구에의 적용을 중심으로-)

  • 나명균
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 1995
  • This paper discusses the bias that results from using nonrandomly selectd samples of consumer research. A two stage system (maximum likelihood probit analysis and ordinary least square analysis) is a solution to sample selection bias. Empirical results show that correcting for sample selection bias improves the validity of consumer research results.

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The Econometric Evaluation of the Impact of R&D Incentive on Technological Outcomes (R&D지원정책이 기술성과에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Lee, Johng-Ihl;Kim, Chan-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2007
  • Among numerous policy influencers' and researchers' advices and policy suggestions, there is little opposition to the proposition that technology is essential to the economic development. The role of technology has never been more emphasized than today in Korea as in any other countries. The effects of the government's innovation policy on corporate R&D activities and more broadly the economic welfare of a whole nation are widely recognized with intuitional and empirical evidence. That is, various R&D incentives reduce the marginal cost of a firm's R&D efforts, inducing as much increase of its R&D investment to result in a better chance to acquire target technology. This paper examines the impact of R&D incentives on the technological outcomes by analyzing individual firms' investment behaviors subject to the government's R&D incentive policies. An econometric model of technological outcomes is estimated on a project level with cross-sectional data. "Probit model" is employed for estimations. Special attention was given to the effectiveness of R&D programs by estimating policy impact by types of investment. The data were collected from 928 different R&D projects completed between 1987 and 1993. With the single equation approach, we were able to find that the structure of investment is a far more significant factor in technological outcomes than the total amount of investment. The analysis also shows that the two types of firms' matching investment, in-kind and cash, do not bear a complementary, but a substitutive relations to each other. It also reconfirms the proposition that R&D incentives increase firm's financial investment. Despite many supportive studies emphasizing the cooperation between innovation performers, it is also found that the larger the number of institutions involved in a project, the less likely it leads to a technological success, And meeting the proposed deadlines without postponing is estimated to be a good barometer to predict the outcome of an R&D project. Also the probabilities of success for major variables are represented for policy implications, after calculating marginal effects.

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