• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability type Item

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A study of improved ways of the predicted probability to criminal types (범죄유형별 범죄발생 예측확률을 높일 수 있는 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Young-Suk;Kim, Jin-Mook;Park, Koo-Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2012
  • Modern society, various great strength crimes are producing. After all crimes happen, it is most important that prevent crime beforehand than that cope. So, many research studied to prevent various crime. However, existing method of studies are to analyze and prevent by society and psychological factors. Therefore we wishes to achieve research to forecast crime by time using Markov chain method. We embody modelling for crime occurrence estimate by crime type time using crime occurrence number of item data that is collected about 5 great strength offender strength, murder, rape, moderation, violence. And examined propriety of crime occurrence estimate modelling by time that propose in treatise that compare crime occurrence type crime occurrence estimate price and actuality occurrence value. Our proposed crime occurrence estimate techniques studied to apply maximum value by critcal value about great strength crime such as strength, murder, rape etc. actually, and heighten crime occurrence estimate probability by using way to apply mean value about remainder crime in this paper. So, we wish to more study about wide crime case and as the crime occurrence estimate rate and actuality value by time are different in crime type hereafter applied examples investigating.

Development of the Three-tier Test Items for the Thinking Skills of the Scientific Inquiry (과학적 탐구 사고력의 3단계 선다형 평가 연구)

  • Lee, Moo
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.643-650
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    • 1998
  • In order to assess students' higher mental abilities, such as scientific inquiry thinking skills, the essay type items would be more adequate than the multiple choice itmes. However, due to the present condition in which a huge number of students take the examination at the same time, it is inevitable to use the multiple choice type. For this reason, it is necessary to develop a new type of multiple choice items which can reduce the disadvantages of the traditional multiple choice type and can achieve a similar level of validity as subjective type assessment. The three-tier multiple choice test items which can be used for a large sample of students and especially for scientific inquiry thinking abilities, are proposed and examined. The three-tier multiple choice test items asked firstly conclusion or the results of calculation or experimental apparatus, secondly the processes of calculation or of developing conclusion, thirdly asking relevant scientific concepts. For the item analysis, 1 point was given to the correct answer, while 0 point was given to the wrong one. The data were processed through the computer program developed in Turbo C 2.0 language with an IBM compatable personal computer. The average score in the sub-items asking for scientific concepts was lower than that in the sub-items asking for results or processes. The score of guessing by chance in the three-tier multiple choice items was only 0.13%, so that the probability of making correct answers by just guessing would be extremely low. The three-tier multiple choice items, even if they are objective items, are thought to assess thinking skills of the scientific inquiry meaningfully excluding the possibility of guessing by chance.

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ANOVA of Satisfaction based on Navigation Location and Number of Items in Mobile Applications (모바일 어플리케이션의 네비게이션 위치와 항목 수에 따른 만족도에 대한 분산 분석)

  • Park Sung-Hum;Kim Tae-Wan
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2022
  • The user interface is a very important factor in application usability. The user interface of a typical application has a navigation system and the selection of the item takes place to move the movement. In this study, we would like to see if there are differences in user satisfaction depending on the location of the navigation and the number of items. The methods of in this study, a random group of 135 adult men and women who randomly selected four to six items as independent variables was conducted on the top, bottom, side, and three locations of navigation in a typical application. As a result, the navigation system rejected the null hypothesis of 0.000 and 0.008 respectively, with a significant probability of 0.05 or less than 0.000 and 0.008, respectively. It was also confirmed that the study theory of whether the interaction of navigation location and number of items creates a difference in satisfaction was significant with a significant probability of 0.016. In the post-analysis (Schefe), there were significant differences in the position of navigation, as each group was classified as a new group at the top <bottom <, and in the number of items, there were significant differences between the two groups of six <4 . Conclusion of this research, depending on the results of some significant differences in satisfaction with the location of the navigation and the number of items, it can be seen that the satisfaction of the interface increases when the navigation position is located at the bottom. However, follow-up research is needed on whether side-type navigation is suitable for different mobile sizes.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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