• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of reference

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Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.

Characteristics of the Graded Wildlife Dose Assessment Code K-BIOTA and Its Application (단계적 야생동식물 선량평가 코드 K-BIOTA의 특성 및 적용)

  • Keum, Dong-Kwon;Jun, In;Lim, Kwang-Muk;Kim, Byeong-Ho;Choi, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.252-260
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    • 2015
  • This paper describes the technical background for the Korean wildlife radiation dose assessment code, K-BIOTA, and the summary of its application. The K-BIOTA applies the graded approaches of 3 levels including the screening assessment (Level 1 & 2), and the detailed assessment based on the site specific data (Level 3). The screening level assessment is a preliminary step to determine whether the detailed assessment is needed, and calculates the dose rate for the grouped organisms, rather than an individual biota. In the Level 1 assessment, the risk quotient (RQ) is calculated by comparing the actual media concentration with the environmental media concentration limit (EMCL) derived from a bench-mark screening reference dose rate. If RQ for the Level 1 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 2 assessment, which calculates RQ using the average value of the concentration ratio (CR) and equilibrium distribution coefficient (Kd) for the grouped organisms, is carried out for the more realistic assessment. Thus, the Level 2 assessment is less conservative than the Level 1 assessment. If RQ for the Level 2 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 3 assessment is performed for the detailed assessment. In the Level 3 assessment, the radiation dose for the representative organism of a site is calculated by using the site specific data of occupancy factor, CR and Kd. In addition, the K-BIOTA allows the uncertainty analysis of the dose rate on CR, Kd and environmental medium concentration among input parameters optionally in the Level 3 assessment. The four probability density functions of normal, lognormal, uniform and exponential distribution can be applied.The applicability of the code was tested through the participation of IAEA EMRAS II (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety) for the comparison study of environmental models comparison, and as the result, it was proved that the K-BIOTA would be very useful to assess the radiation risk of the wildlife living in the various contaminated environment.

Effect of the Changing the Lower Limits of Normal and the Interpretative Strategies for Lung Function Tests (폐기능검사 해석에 정상하한치 변화와 새 해석흐름도가 미치는 영향)

  • Ra, Seung Won;Oh, Ji Seon;Hong, Sang-Bum;Shim, Tae Sun;Lim, Chae Man;Koh, Youn Suck;Lee, Sang Do;Kim, Woo Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won Dong;Oh, Yeon-Mok
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.61 no.2
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2006
  • Background: To interpret lung function tests, it is necessary to determine the lower limits of normal (LLN) and to derive a consensus on the interpretative algorithm. '0.7 of LLN for the $FEV_1$/FVC' was suggested by the COPD International Guideline (GOLD) for defining obstructive disease. A consensus on a new interpretative algorithm was recently achieved by ATS/ERS in 2005. We evaluated the accuracy of '0.7 of LLN for the $FEV_1$/FVC' for diagnosing obstructive diseases, and we also determined the effect of the new algorithm on diagnosing ventilatory defects. Methods: We obtained the age, gender, height, weight, $FEV_1$, FVC, and $FEV_1$/FVC from 7362 subjects who underwent spirometry in 2005 at the Asan Medical Center, Korea. For diagnosing obstructive diseases, the accuracy of '0.7 of LLN for the $FEV_1$/FVC' was evaluated in reference to the $5^{th}$ percentile of the LLN. By applying the new algorithm, we determined how many more subjects should have lung volumes testing performed. Evaluation of 1611 patients who had lung volumes testing performed as well as spirometry during the period showed how many more subjects were diagnosed with obstructive diseases according to the new algorithm. Results: 1) The sensitivity of '0.7 of LLN for the $FEV_1$/FVC' for diagnosing obstructive diseases increased according to age, but the specificity was decreased according to age; the positive predictive value decreased, but the negative predictive value increased. 2) By applying the new algorithm, 34.5% (2540/7362) more subjects should have lung volumes testing performed. 3) By applying the new algorithm, 13% (205/1611) more subjects were diagnosed with obstructive diseases; these subjects corresponded to 30% (205/681) of the subjects who had been diagnosed with restrictive diseases by the old interpretative algorithm. Conclusion: The sensitivity and specificity of '0.7 of LLN for the $FEV_1$/FVC' for diagnosing obstructive diseases changes according to age. By applying the new interpretative algorithm, it was shown that more subjects should have lung volumes testing performed, and there was a higher probability of being diagnosed with obstructive diseases.

SKU recommender system for retail stores that carry identical brands using collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering (협업 필터링 및 하이브리드 필터링을 이용한 동종 브랜드 판매 매장간(間) 취급 SKU 추천 시스템)

  • Joe, Denis Yongmin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.77-110
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the diversification and individualization of consumption patterns through the web and mobile devices based on the Internet have been rapid. As this happens, the efficient operation of the offline store, which is a traditional distribution channel, has become more important. In order to raise both the sales and profits of stores, stores need to supply and sell the most attractive products to consumers in a timely manner. However, there is a lack of research on which SKUs, out of many products, can increase sales probability and reduce inventory costs. In particular, if a company sells products through multiple in-store stores across multiple locations, it would be helpful to increase sales and profitability of stores if SKUs appealing to customers are recommended. In this study, the recommender system (recommender system such as collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering), which has been used for personalization recommendation, is suggested by SKU recommendation method of a store unit of a distribution company that handles a homogeneous brand through a plurality of sales stores by country and region. We calculated the similarity of each store by using the purchase data of each store's handling items, filtering the collaboration according to the sales history of each store by each SKU, and finally recommending the individual SKU to the store. In addition, the store is classified into four clusters through PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and cluster analysis (Clustering) using the store profile data. The recommendation system is implemented by the hybrid filtering method that applies the collaborative filtering in each cluster and measured the performance of both methods based on actual sales data. Most of the existing recommendation systems have been studied by recommending items such as movies and music to the users. In practice, industrial applications have also become popular. In the meantime, there has been little research on recommending SKUs for each store by applying these recommendation systems, which have been mainly dealt with in the field of personalization services, to the store units of distributors handling similar brands. If the recommendation method of the existing recommendation methodology was 'the individual field', this study expanded the scope of the store beyond the individual domain through a plurality of sales stores by country and region and dealt with the store unit of the distribution company handling the same brand SKU while suggesting a recommendation method. In addition, if the existing recommendation system is limited to online, it is recommended to apply the data mining technique to develop an algorithm suitable for expanding to the store area rather than expanding the utilization range offline and analyzing based on the existing individual. The significance of the results of this study is that the personalization recommendation algorithm is applied to a plurality of sales outlets handling the same brand. A meaningful result is derived and a concrete methodology that can be constructed and used as a system for actual companies is proposed. It is also meaningful that this is the first attempt to expand the research area of the academic field related to the existing recommendation system, which was focused on the personalization domain, to a sales store of a company handling the same brand. From 05 to 03 in 2014, the number of stores' sales volume of the top 100 SKUs are limited to 52 SKUs by collaborative filtering and the hybrid filtering method SKU recommended. We compared the performance of the two recommendation methods by totaling the sales results. The reason for comparing the two recommendation methods is that the recommendation method of this study is defined as the reference model in which offline collaborative filtering is applied to demonstrate higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The results of this model are compared with the Hybrid filtering method, which is a model that reflects the characteristics of the offline store view. The proposed method showed a higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The proposed method was proved by using actual sales data of large Korean apparel companies. In this study, we propose a method to extend the recommendation system of the individual level to the group level and to efficiently approach it. In addition to the theoretical framework, which is of great value.