• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of damage occurrence

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Development of Deterioration Prediction Model and Reliability Model for the Cyclic Freeze-Thaw of Concrete Structures (콘크리트구조물의 반복적 동결융해에 대한 수치 해석적 열화 예측 및 신뢰성 모델 개발)

  • Cho, Tae-Jun;Kim, Lee-Hyeon;Cho, Hyo-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2008
  • The initiation and growth processes of cyclic ice body in porous systems are affected by the thermo-physical and mass transport properties, as well as gradients of temperature and chemical potentials. Furthermore, the diffusivity of deicing chemicals shows significantly higher value under cyclic freeze-thaw conditions. Consequently, the disintegration of concrete structures is aggravated at marine environments, higher altitudes, and northern areas. However, the properties of cyclic freeze-thaw with crack growth and the deterioration by the accumulated damages are hard to identify in tests. In order to predict the accumulated damages by cyclic freeze-thaw, a regression analysis by the response surface method (RSM) is used. The important parameters for cyclic freeze-thawdeterioration of concrete structures, such as water to cement ratio, entrained air pores, and the number of cycles of freezing and thawing, are used to compose the limit state function. The regression equation fitted to the important deterioration criteria, such as accumulated plastic deformation, relative dynamic modulus, or equivalent plastic deformations, were used as the probabilistic evaluations of performance for the degraded structural resistance. The predicted results of relative dynamic modulus and residual strains after 300 cycles of freeze-thaw show very good agreements with the experimental results. The RSM result can be used to predict the probability of occurrence for designer specified critical values. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the life cycle management of concrete structures considering the accumulated damages due to the cyclic freeze-thaw using the proposed prediction method.

Fire Safety Analysis of Fire Suppression System for Aircraft Maintenance Hangar Using Fault Tree Method (Fault Tree를 활용한 항공기 격납고 소화시스템의 화재 안전성 분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Guk
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2017
  • An aircraft maintenance hangar is a building that stores, maintains, and inspects expensive aircraft. The frequency of fire occurrence is low, but the resulting human and material damage can be very serious. Therefore, in this study, we conducted a qualitative analysis of the fire safety of the currently operating fire suppression systems for aircraft maintenance hangars using the Fault Tree method, and then performed a quantitative analysis using the failure rate data for the derived basic events and analyzed the importance of the minimal cut sets. As a result of the qualitative analysis by the minimal cut set, it was found that there were 14 accident paths that could be expanded to a large fire, due to the fire control failure of the aircraft hangar fire suppression system. The quantitative analysis revealed that, the probability of the fire expanding into a large one is $2.08{\times}E-05/day$. The analysis of the importance of the minimal cut set shows that four minimal cut sets, namely the fire detector and foam head action according to the zone and blocking of the foam by the aircraft wing and the fire plume, had the same likelihood of causing the fire to develop into a large one, viz. 24.95% each, which together forms the majority of the likelihood. It was confirmed for the first time by fault tree method that the fire suppression system of aircraft maintenance hangars is not suitable for fires under the aircraft wings and needs to be improved.

A Study on the Design of Prediction Model for Safety Evaluation of Partial Discharge (부분 방전의 안전도 평가를 위한 예측 모델 설계)

  • Lee, Su-Il;Ko, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2020
  • Partial discharge occurs a lot in high-voltage power equipment such as switchgear, transformers, and switch gears. Partial discharge shortens the life of the insulator and causes insulation breakdown, resulting in large-scale damage such as a power outage. There are several types of partial discharge that occur inside the product and the surface. In this paper, we design a predictive model that can predict the pattern and probability of occurrence of partial discharge. In order to analyze the designed model, learning data for each type of partial discharge was collected through the UHF sensor by using a simulator that generates partial discharge. The predictive model designed in this paper was designed based on CNN during deep learning, and the model was verified through learning. To learn about the designed model, 5000 training data were created, and the form of training data was used as input data for the model by pre-processing the 3D raw data input from the UHF sensor as 2D data. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the accuracy of the model designed through learning has an accuracy of 0.9972. It was found that the accuracy of the proposed model was higher in the case of learning by making the data into a two-dimensional image and learning it in the form of a grayscale image.

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Flood Risk Mapping with FLUMEN model Application (FLUMEN 모형을 적용한 홍수위험지도의 작성)

  • Cho, Wan Hee;Han, Kun Yeun;Ahn, Ki Hong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2B
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2010
  • Recently due to the typhoon and extreme rainfall induced by abnormal weather and climate change, the probability of severe damage to human life and property is rapidly increasing. Thus it is necessary to create adequate and reliable flood risk map in preparation for those natural disasters. The study area is Seo-gu in Daegu which is located near Geumho river, one of the tributaries of Nakdong river. Inundation depth and velocity at each time were calculated by applying FLUMEN model to the target area of interest, Seo-gu in Daegu. And the research of creating flood risk map was conducted according to the Downstream Hazard Classification Guidelines of USBR. The 2-dimensional inundation analysis for channels and protected lowland with FLUMEN model was carried out with the basic assumption that there's no levee failure against 100 year precipatation and inflow comes only through the overflowing to the protected lowland. The occurrence of overflowing was identified at the levee of Bisan-dong located in Geumho watershed. The level of risk was displayed for house/building residents, drivers and pedestrians using information about depth and velocity of each node computed from the inundation analysis. Once inundation depth map and flood risk map for each region is created with this research method, emergency action guidelines for residents can be systemized and it would be very useful in establishing specified emergency evacuation plans in case of levee failure and overflowing resulting from a flood.

Two-dimensional Inundation Analysis Using Stochastic Rainfall Variation and Geographic Information System (추계학적 강우변동생성 기법과 GIS를 연계한 2차원 침수해석)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Cho, Wan-Hee;Han, Kun-Yeun;Ahn, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 2010
  • Recently actual rainfall pattern is decreasing rainy days and increasing in rainfall intensity and the frequency of flood occurrence is also increased. To consider recent situation, Engineers use deterministic methods like a PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation). If design storm wouldn't occur, increasing of design criteria is extravagant. In addition, the biggest structure cause trouble with residents and environmental problem. And then it is necessary to study considering probability of rainfall parameter in each sub-basin for design of water structure. In this study, stochastic rainfall patterns are generated by using log-ratio method, Johnson system and multivariate Monte Carlo simulation. Using the stochastic rainfall patterns, hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis and 2nd flooding analysis were performed based on GIS for their applicability. The results of simulations are similar to the actual damage area so the methodology of this study should be used about making a flood risk map or regidental shunting rout map against the region.

Drought Risk Analysis in Seoul Using Cheugugi and Climate Change Scenario Based Rainfall Data (측우기 및 미래 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 활용한 서울지역의 가뭄 위험도 분석)

  • Kim, Ji Eun;Yu, Ji Soo;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.387-393
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    • 2018
  • Considering the effect of climate change, a quantitative analysis of extreme drought is needed to reduce the damage from extreme droughts. Therefore, in this study, a quantitative risk analysis of extreme drought was conducted. The threshold level method was applied to define a drought event using Cheugugi rainfall data in past, gauged rainfall data in present, and climate change scenario rainfall data in future. A bivariate drought frequency analysis was performed using the copula function to simultaneously consider two major drought characteristics such as duration and severity. Based on the bivariate drought frequency curves, the risks for the past, present and future were calculated and the risks for future extreme drought were analyzed comparing with the past and present. As a result, the mean drought duration of the future was shorter than that of past and present, however, the mean drought severity was much larger. Therefore short term and severe droughts were expected to occur in the future. In addition, the analysis of the maximum drought risk indicated that the future maximum drought risk was 1.39~1.94 times and 1.33~1.81 times higher than the past and present. Finally, the risk of extreme drought over past and present maximum drought in the future was very high, ranging from 0.989 to 1.0, and the occurrence probability of extreme drought was high in the future.

Assessing the Climatic Suitability for the Drywood Termite, Cryptotermes domesticus Haviland (Blattodea: Kalotermitidae), in South Korea (마른나무흰개미(가칭)의 국내 기후적합성 평가)

  • Min-Jung Kim;Jun-Gi Lee;Youngwoo Nam ;Yonghwan Park
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.215-220
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    • 2023
  • A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.

Ecological Importance of Water Budget and Synergistic Effects of Water Stress of Plants due to Air Pollution and Soil Acidification in Korea (한국에서 수분수지의 생태적 중요성과 대기오염 및 토양 산성화로 인한 식물의 수분스트레스 증대 효과)

  • 이창석;이안나
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2003
  • Korea has plentiful precipitation but rainfall events concentrate on several months of rainy season in her weather condition. Korea, therefore, experiences drought for a given period every year. Moreover the soil has usually low water holding capacity, as it is composed coarse particles originated from the granite. Response of several oaks and the Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora) on water stress showed that water budget was significant factor determining vegetation distribution. In addition, dehydration level due to cold resistance mechanism of several evergreen plants during the winter season was closely related to their distribution in natural condition. Experimental result under water stress showed that the Korean red pine was very tolerant to desiccation but the seedlings showed high mortality during the dry season. The mortality tended to proportionate to soil moisture content of each site. A comparison between soil moisture content during June when it is severe dry season and moisture content of the culture soil when the pine seedlings reached the permanent wilting point due to water withheld proved that high mortality during the dry season was due to water deficit. Water potential of sample plants measured during the exposure experiment to the air pollutant showed a probability that water related factors would dominate the occurrence of visible damage and the tolerance level of sample plants. In both field survey and laboratory experiment, plants exposed to air pollution showed more rapid transpiration than those grown in the unpolluted condition. The result would due to injury of leaf surface by air pollutants. Aluminum (Al/sup 3+/) increased in the acid soil not only inhibits root growth but also leads to abnormal distribution of root system and thereby caused water stress. The water stresses due to air pollution and soil acidification showed a possibility that they play dominating roles in inducing forest decline additionally to the existing water deficit due to weather and soil conditions in Korea. Sludge, which can contribute to improve field capacity, as it is almost composed of organic matter, showed an effect ameliorating the retarded growth of plant in the acidified soil. The effect was not less than that of dolomite known in widely as such a soil ameliorator. Litter extract contributed also to mitigate the water stress due to toxic Al/sup 3+/. We prepared a model showing the potential interaction of multiple stresses, which can cause forest decline in Korea by synthesizing those results. Furthermore, we suggested restoration plans, which can mitigate such forest decline in terms of soil amelioration and vegetation restoration.