• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Success

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Development of a decision framework for the designing and implementation of a sustainable underground water storage system

  • Gladden, Lennox Alexander;Park, Namsik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.244-244
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    • 2015
  • Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) in the form of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) systems are being applied for numerous water augmentation projects both in developed and developing countries. Given the onset of Climate Change and its influence on weather patterns and land use, it has been acknowledged the utilization of this technology will be ever increasing. This technique like all others does have its drawbacks or disadvantages, whereby to overcome these drawbacks or disadvantages it is recommended that logical planning process be followed. In this study, we developed a decision framework known as "Decision framework for the planning, designing, construction/testing and implementation of subsurface water storage system" to further standardize the planning and design process of subsurface water storage system to increase the probability of having a successful ASR/ASTR project. The formulation of this framework was based on earlier frameworks, guidelines, published papers and technical reports which were compiled into a data collection database. The database of which consider both qualitative and quantitative aspect for example recharge objectives, site location, water chemistry of the native, source and recovered water, aquifer characteristics(hydraulic conductivity, transmissivity, porosity), injection/pumping rate, ecological constraints, societal restrictions, regulatory restrictions etc. The assimilation of these factors into a singular framework will benefit the broad spectrum of stakeholder as it maps the chronological order under which ASR project should be undertaken highlighting at each stage the feasibility of the project. The final stage of which should result in fully operational ASR system. The framework was applied to two case studies and through the application of a modified ASR site selection suitability index (Brown et al., 2005) a score was derived to identify the performance of each site. A high score of which meant a maximize chance of success given the reduce presence of project constraints.

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Long-term Results of Endoscopic Deflux$^{(R)}$ Injection for Vesicoureteral Reflux in Children

  • Kim, Hwanik;Kim, Byung Soo;Cheong, Hae Il;Cho, Byoung Soo;Kim, Kwang Myeong
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: We evaluated the long-term results of endoscopic Deflux$^{(R)}$ injection for treating vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in children. Methods: Between September 2004 and September 2014, 243 children (137 boys and 106 girls) with a mean age of 53 months underwent Deflux$^{(R)}$ injection. Our clinical protocol included radionuclide voiding cystography (RNC) at postoperative 3 months, 1 year and 3 years to assess the VUR resolution. Results: The cure rates at 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years by patients were 70.8%, 64.3%, and 65.6% for the total patients and 79.2%, 75.2%, and 76.4%, for the ureters, respectively. The recurrence rate of postoperative febrile urinary tract infection (UTI) was 20% in patients without VUR at postoperative 1 year. Twenty patients undergoing ureteroneocystostomy (UNC) significantly had younger age (P=0.003), higher VUR grade (P<0.001), and lower success rates of Deflux$^{(R)}$ injection (P<0.05). On univariate analysis, older age (P=0.014) and lower grade of VUR (P=0.031) were the significant predictors of a successful outcome. But there was none on multivariate analysis. Younger age, especially age of 0-12 month-old, was the only significant predictor of postoperative febrile UTI recurrence on both univariate and multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Deflux$^{(R)}$ injection is efficacious with a low complication rate for the anti-reflux procedure in children. There is low recurrence rate of UTI though VUR persists, and high probability of no VUR at 3 years if no VUR at 1 year. It is recommendable not to perform follow-up RNC at 3 years routinely if no VUR at 1 year.

A Study on the Analysis and the Improvement of Land and Sea Breeze Model Experiment suggested to 2009 Revised Elementary Science Curriculum (2009 개정 교육과정 초등과학에서 제시된 해륙풍 모형실험 분석 및 개선 방안)

  • Kang, Houn Tae;Lee, Gyuho;Noh, Suk Goo
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the problems of land and sea breeze model experiment that has presented in $5^{th}$ grade curriculum in chapter "Weather and our lives" and makes better model simulation so that learners can have better and more effective way to study it. To survey the opinions from dedicated teachers about land and sea breeze model experiment, we produced the survey through interview with science exclusive teacher from M elementary school. An elementary science education expert, 3 men of science EdD modified and complemented survey and started Delphi survey to 12 science teachers who have career teaching more than 3 years. The problems found in this survey were 'one heat bulb, short heating time, small temperature difference of water and sand, lack of class time, empty space between sand and water, back of transparent boxes, little amount of scent and the location of the it' etc. But the most of all, it is hard to see the successful result of the experiment. Based on these kinds of investigations, and lots of trial and error, redesigned the new model experiment that has the most similarity to the real one and high probability of success. According to this, it was able to see the smoke forms horizontal movement along the sand and the smoke goes in one circulation cycle. through this experiment, we made a conclusion that although those scientific experiments in textbook were developed through lots of considerations of expert, to consider the aspect of consumer, it needs to reach the educational agreement about simulation experiment so that It can lead to successful experiment and high quality education.

Repeated Transsphenoidal Surgery for Pituitary Tumors (경접형골동접근법에 의한 뇌하수체종양의 재수술)

  • Koh, Young-Cho;Yoo, Heon;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Whang, Do-Yun;Jang, Jin-Soon;Park, Hyo-Il
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.929-934
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    • 2000
  • Objective : The results of secondary transsphenoidal surgery(TSS) for either residual or recurring pituitary adenomas have been reported to be unfavorable. To evaluate the effectiveness of secondary TSS, we analyzed the surgical results of residual or recurred pituitary adenomas in patients who underwent secondary TSS from 1992 to 1998. Material and Methods : Among the 95 patients who underwent TSS during this period, 14(15%) received repeated TSS. Two of the 14 patients underwent three TSS. Among the 11 patients with pituitary adenomas, three had nonfunctioning tumors ; six prolachnomas ; two GH-secreting adenomas. The remaining three patieats had craniopharyngioma, pituitary abscess and hemangioendothelioma respectively. The interval between the two surgical procedures ranged from one week to 33 months(mean ; 12 months). Causes of the secondary TSS were tumor recurrence in 11 patients, intentional staged operation in three, persistent disease despite medical therapy and CSF leak after initial operation in one respectively. Treatments prior to secondary TSS were medical treatment only in eight patients. Results : During the repeated operationtss some adhesion was noted in septal mucous membrane. The sphenoid cavity was filled with fibrous tissue which correlated with the methods of reconstruction of the sellar floor at the previous operation. There was no statistically significant difference in success rate of surgery between the initial and the second TSS(86% vs 81%). The complication rate was similar between the two procedures. There was no statistically significant factors affecting the results of second TSS. Conclusion : Transsphenoidal reoperation was regarded as a suitable approach for treating recurrent pituitary adenomas in spite of some degree of operative difficulties. In patients with transsphenoidally resectable tumor residuals or recurrences confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging, remissions can be obtained with high probability, especially in secondary surgery after an staged decompression.

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A Study on the Fracture Strength of All-Ceramic Crown according to the Zirconia Coping Design using CAD/CAM System (CAD/CAM을 이용하여 제작한 전부도재관의 지르코니아 코핑 디자인에 따른 파절강도에 관한 연구)

  • Bulgan, L.;Cho, In-Ho;Shin, Soo-Yeon
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.111-123
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    • 2006
  • A Study on the Fracture Strength of All-Ceramic Crown according to the Zirconia Coping Design using CAD/CAM System L. Bulgan, In-Ho Cho, Soo-Yeon Shin Department of Prosthodontics, Graduate School, Dankook University The fracture strength of prosthesis is important, because it affects the function, and long term success of prosthesis and teeth. The purpose of this study was to compare the fracture strength of zirconia coping designs. Experimental test group were classified into three designs according to coping design, Modified design: Zirconia coping margin was located at 1mm above the axiogingival line angle. Collarless design: The coping margin terminated at the axiogingival line angle Butt design: The coping margin was extended to the finishing line of prepared margin. A $Cercon^{(R)}$(Degussa, Germany) CAD/CAM system was used to make the zirconia coping. Fracture strength was measured using loading machine at a cross head speed of 1mm/min. The results were statistically analyzed using the one-way ANOVA and multiple comparison test. Statistical significance was set in advance at the probability level of less than 0.05. The result : I. Collarless($738N{\pm}155N$) and Modified($755N{\pm}185N$) groups showed significantly a lower fracture strength than Butt($1057N{\pm}262N$) group(p<0.05). II. There were no statistical differences of the fracture strength between Modified($755N{\pm}185N$) and Collarless($738N{\pm}155N$) groups. III. When comparing the fractured surface, all the group showed porcelain fracture, which were fractured at the labial surface of baked porcelain The butt design of the zirconia coping has higher fracture strength than modified and collarless design.

A Conceptual Approach for Discovering Proportions of Disjunctive Routing Patterns in a Business Process Model

  • Kim, Kyoungsook;Yeon, Moonsuk;Jeong, Byeongsoo;Kim, Kwanghoon
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.1148-1161
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    • 2017
  • The success of a business process management system stands or falls on the quality of the business processes. Many experiments therefore have been devoting considerable attention to the modeling and analysis of business processes in process-centered organizations. One of those experiments is to apply the probabilistic theories to the analytical evaluations of business process models in order to improve their qualities. In this paper, we excogitate a conceptual way of applying a probability theory of proportions into modeling business processes. There are three types of routing patterns such as sequential, disjunctive, conjunctive and iterative routing patterns in modeling business processes, into which the proportion theory is applicable. This paper focuses on applying the proportion theory to the disjunctive routing patterns, in particular, and formally named proportional information control net that is the formal representation of a corresponding business process model. In this paper, we propose a conceptual approach to discover a proportional information control net from the enactment event histories of the corresponding business process, and describe the details of a series of procedural frameworks and operational mechanisms formally and graphically supporting the proposed approach. We strongly believe that the conceptual approach with the proportional information control net ought to be very useful to improve the quality of business processes by adapting to the reengineering and redesigning the corresponding business processes.

Evaluation of the bond strength between aged composite cores and luting agent

  • Polat, Serdar;Cebe, Fatma;Tuncdemir, Aliriza;Ozturk, Caner;Usumez, Aslihan
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.108-114
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    • 2015
  • PURPOSE. The aim of this study was to evaluate effect of different surface treatment methods on the bond strength between aged composite-resin core and luting agent. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Seventy-five resin composites and also seventy-five zirconia ceramic discs were prepared. 60 composite samples were exposed to thermal aging (10,000 cycles, 5 to $55^{\circ}C$) and different surface treatment. All specimens were separated into 5 groups (n=15): 1) Intact specimens 2) Thermal aging-air polishing 3) Thermal aging- Er:YAG laser irradiation 4) Thermal aging- acid etching 5) Thermal-aging. All specimens were bonded to the zirconia discs with resin cement and fixed to universal testing machine and bond strength testing loaded to failure with a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min. The fractured surface was classified as adhesive failure, cohesive failure and adhesive-cohesive failure. The bond strength data was statistically compared by the Kruskal-Wallis method complemented by the Bonferroni correction Mann-Whitney U test. The probability level for statistical significance was set at ${\alpha}$=.05. RESULTS. Thermal aging and different surface treatment methods have significant effect on the bond strength between composite-resin cores and luting-agent (P<.05). The mean baseline bond strength values ranged between $7.07{\pm}2.11$ and $26.05{\pm}6.53$ N. The highest bond strength of $26.05{\pm}6.53$ N was obtained with Group 3. Group 5 showed the lowest value of bond strength. CONCLUSION. Appropriate surface treatment method should be applied to aged composite resin cores or aged-composites restorations should be replaced for the optimal bond strength and the clinical success.

COMPENSATION STRUCTURE AND CONTINGENCY ALLOCATION IN INTEGRATED PROJECT DELIVERY SYSTEMS

  • Mei Liu;F. H. (Bud) Griffis;Andrew Bates
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.338-343
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    • 2013
  • Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) as a delivery method fully capitalizes on an integrated project team that takes advantage of the knowledge of all team members to maximize project outcomes. IPD is currently the highest form of collaboration available because all three core project stakeholders, owner, designer and contractor, are aligned to the same purpose. Compared with traditional project delivery approaches such as Design-Bid-Build (DBB), Design-Build (DB), and CM at-Risk, IPD is distinguished in that it eliminates the adversarial nature of the business by encouraging transparency, open communication, honesty and collaboration among all project stakeholders. The team appropriately shares the project risk and reward. Sharing reward is easy, while it is hard to fairly share a failure. So the compensation structure and the contingency in IPD are very different from those in traditional delivery methods and they are expected to encourage motivation, inspiration and creativity of all project stakeholders to achieve project success. This paper investigates the compensation structure in IPD and provides a method to determine the proper level of contingency allocation to reduce the risk of cost overrun. It also proposes a method in which contingency could be used as a functional monetary incentive when established to produce the desired level of collaboration in IPD. Based on the compensation structure scenario discovered, a probabilistic contingency calculation model was created by evaluating the random nature of changes and various risk drivers. The model can be used by the IPD team to forecast the probability of the cost overrun and equip the IPD team with confidence to really enjoy the benefits of collaborative team work.

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Enhancements of the Modified PCF in IEEE 802.11 WLANs

  • Kanjanavapastit Apichan;Landfeldt Bjorn
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.313-324
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    • 2005
  • The success of the IEEE 802.11 standard has prompted research into efficiency of the different medium access methods and their support for different traffic types. A modified version of the point coordination function (PCF) called modified PCF has been introduced as a way to improve the efficiency over the standard method. It has been shown through a simulation study and a mathematical analysis that channel utilization can be much improved compared to the standard, in case there is no so-called hidden station problem. However, under the hidden station problem, the efficiency of the modified PCF would obviously decrease. In this paper, some enhancements of the modified PCF are introduced. Firstly, we propose a retransmission process to allow frames involved in collisions to be retransmitted. Then, we propose a collision resolution mechanism to reduce the frame collision probability due to the hidden station problem. In addition, we propose a priority scheme to support prioritization for different traffic types such as interactive voice and video, and real-time data traffic in the modified PCF. To prevent the starvation of one low priority traffic, minimum transmission period is also guaranteed to each traffic type via an admission control algorithm. We study the performance of the modified PCF under the hidden station problem and the performance of the modified PCF with priority scheme through simulations. To illustrate the efficiency of the priority scheme, we therefore compare its simulation results with those of some standardized protocols: The distributed coordination function (DCF), the enhanced distributed channel access (EDCA), the PCF, and our previously proposed protocol: The modified PCF without priority scheme. The simulation results show that the increment of delay in the network due to the hidden station problem can be reduced using the proposed collision resolution mechanism. In addition, in a given scenario the modified PCF with priority scheme can provide better quality of service (QoS) support to different traffic types and also support a higher number of data stations than the previous proposals.

Improvement of Automatic Present Weather Observation with In Situ Visibility and Humidity Measurements (시정과 습도 관측자료를 이용한 자동 현천 관측 정확도 향상 연구)

  • Lee, Yoon-Sang;Choi, Reno Kyu-Young;Kim, Ki-Hoon;Park, Sung-Hwa;Nam, Ho-Jin;Kim, Seung-Bum
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.439-450
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    • 2019
  • Present weather plays an important role not only for atmospheric sciences but also for public welfare and road safety. While the widely used state-of-the-art visibility and present weather sensor yields present weather, a single type of measurement is far from perfect to replace long history of human-eye based observation. Truly automatic present weather observation enables us to increase spatial resolution by an order of magnitude with existing facilities in Korea. 8 years of human-eyed present weather records in 19 sites over Korea are compared with visibility sensors and auxiliary measurements, such as humidity of AWS. As clear condition agrees with high probability, next best categories follow fog, rain, snow, mist, haze and drizzle in comparison with human-eyed observation. Fog, mist and haze are often confused due to nature of machine sensing visibility. Such ambiguous weather conditions are improved with empirically induced criteria in combination with visibility and humidity. Differences between instrument manufacturers are also found indicating nonstandard present weather decision. Analysis shows manufacturer dependent present weather differences are induced by manufacturer's own algorithms, not by visibility measurement. Accuracies of present weather for haze, mist, and fog are all improved by 61.5%, 44.9%, and 26.9% respectively. The result shows that automatic present weather sensing is feasible for operational purpose with minimal human interactions if appropriate algorithm is applied. Further study is ongoing for impact of different sensing types between manufacturers for both visibility and present weather data.