• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.225-234
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• 2018

In this paper, we consider a problem of partitioning a search area into smaller rectangular regions, so that multiple platforms can conduct search operations independently without requiring unnecessary coordination among themselves. The search area consists of cells where each cell has some prior information regarding the probability of target existence. The detection probability in particular cell is evaluated by multiplying the observation probability of the platform and the target existence probability in that cell. The total detection probability within the search area is defined as the cumulative detection probability for each cell. However, since this search area partitioning problem is NP-Hard, we decompose the problem into three sequential phases to solve this computationally intractable problem. Additionally, we discuss a special case of this problem, which can provide an optimal analytic solution. We also examine the performance of the proposed approach by comparing our results with the optimal analytic solution.

• 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘텐츠학회 2013년도 춘계 종합학술대회 논문집
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• pp.251-252
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• 2013

Most of the Historic Preservation Areas are very vulnerable to disasters. The aim of this study is to build probability of street blockade for evacuation routes planning from each house to an evacuation place at a large-scale disaster in such a historic preservation area. The study area is Hamanaka Machi Happongi Shuku in Kashima city, Saga Prefecture, which has been designated as a preservation district of traditional buildings. To achieve this aim, we referred to the formula for probability of street blockade for normal city area made by Tokyo Fire Agency. We revised it, considering the width of street under 4 m, structure of houses along the street, and the distance from the house to main street with the width over 4 m. Then, we applied the revised formula to the study area.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.305-314
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• 2017

This study aimed to predict changes in forest area using a probability density function, in order to promote effective forest management in the area north of the civilian control line (known as the Minbuk area) in Korea. Time series analysis (2010 and 2016) of forest area using land cover maps and accessibility expressed by distance covariates (distance from buildings, roads, and civilian control line) was applied to a probability density function. In order to estimate the probability density function, mean and variance were calculated using three methods: area weight (AW), area rate weight (ARW), and sample area change rate weight (SRW). Forest area increases in regions with lower accessibility (i.e., greater distance) from buildings and roads, but no relationship with accessibility from the civilian control line was found. Estimation of forest area change using different distance covariates shows that SRW using distance from buildings provides the most accurate estimation, with around 0.98-fold difference from actual forest area change, and performs well in a Chi-Square test. Furthermore, estimation of forest area until 2028 using SRW and distance from buildings most closely replicates patterns of actual forest area changes, suggesting that estimation of future change could be possible using this method. The method allows investigation of the current status of land cover in the Minbuk area, as well as predictions of future changes in forest area that could be utilized in forest management planning and policymaking in the northern area.

• 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘텐츠학회 2016년도 춘계 종합학술대회 논문집
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• pp.239-240
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• 2016

Traditional town with wooden houses like Japanese historic local town is vulnerable to disaster. Wooden houses crowed in this study area, there is no gap between buildings and buildings. When disaster occurs, they can not use evacuation routes based on the value of probability of rubble flow. Disaster prevention design of traditional town using spatial information for residents is a modern idea in the field of disaster prevention study. Therefore, it is basically important and effective to create information, especially on the current situation such as dangerousness of the area. Here, we report on a disaster prevention design regarding probability of street blockade and probability of rubble flow at a large earthquake directly under our study area. In this study, we explain about necessity of temporary evacuation areas like open space. As a result, we found some ideas to secure evacuation routes from traditional houses to designated refuge places using temporary evacuation areas.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.40.2-40.2
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• 2011

We investigated solar flare occurrence probability depending on sunspot group classification and its area change. For this study, we used the McIntosh sunspot group classification and then selected most flare-productive six sunspot groups : DKI, DKC, EKI, EKC, FKI and FKC. For each group, we classified it into three sub-groups according to the sunspot group area change : increase, steady and decrease. For sunspot data, we used the NOAA's active region information for 19 years (from 1992.01 to 2010.12). As a result, we found that the probabilities of the all "increase" sub-groups is noticeably higher than those of other sub-groups. In case of FKC McIntosh sunspot group, for example, the M-class flare occurrence probability of the "increase" sub-group is 65% while the "decrease" and "steady" sub-groups are 50% and 44%, respectively. In summary, when sunspot group area increases, the probability of solar flares noticeably increases. This is statistical evidence that magnetic flux emergence is an very important mechanism for triggering solar flares.

• 지질공학
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.303-309
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• 2008

중요 석조문화재가 위치하고 있는 강원도 양양군 소재 진전사지 주변지역에 대한 사면재해 가능성을 예측하였다. 연구지역에 대한 현장조사, 실내시험, 지질 및 지형자료 분석을 통해 산사태에 유의한 영향요소를 평가하고 그 자료들을 예측모델에 적용하여 산사태예측도를 작성하였다. 그리고 산사태예측도에 의해 발생확률을 등급별로 분류함으로써 산사태로 인한 석조문화재의 피해가능성을 검토하였다. 산사태예측도에 의하면, 발생확률 70% 이상으로 산사태가 발생될 가능성이 높은 지역은 대상면적의 10.1%인 $3,489m^2$정도로 비교적 넓은 면적비율을 나타내었다. 피해영향권에 속한 높은 고도의 산사면에서 산사태가 발생할 경우 국보 제122호인 진전사지삼층석탑과 보물 제439호인 진전사지부도에 사태물질로 인한 피해가능성이 예상된다.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제14권11호
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• pp.135-144
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 집단 주거지역이 있는 도시지역을 대상으로 방범에 관한 위험도 확률지도 제작 기법을 제안한 것이다. 과거 발생했던 방범 사례를 분석하여 해당지역의 지형, 시설물, 속성 정보 등 도시 공간정보를 구성하는 객체를 바탕으로 육안으로 판별할 수 있는 특징을 판독키 (interpretation key)로 정하였다. 이 판독키를 작성하여 다른 지역에 동일하게 적용하여 방범 및 방재 위험도 확률지도를 생성하는 기법을 제안하였다. 이때 도시공간정보 객체 판독키는 방범 유형에 따라 달라지는 크기의 셀(cell)로 나누고 그 셀에 해당하는 위험지수를 설정하게 된다. 이 때 만들어진 여러 계층의 위험도 확률 지도를 통합하여 종합 위험도 확률 지도를 생성하였다.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.41-53
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• 2013

The study for the estimation potential natural vegetation was estimated the occurrence probability distribution using geographic information system(GIS) in Bukhansan National Park. Correlation and factor analysis were analyzed to estimate probability distribution. Coefficients were calculated by logistic regression analysis. Correlation coefficients were significantly at the 0.01 level. Commonality of elevation, annual mean temperature, warmth index and potential evapotranspiration were high value, but topographic index was low value. Communities of over the 0.3 points distribution probability, Quercus mogolica communities were the largest area, 76,940,900 $m^2$, Pinus densiflora communities area was 860,800 $m^2$, Quercus acutissima communities area was 500,100 $m^2$ and Quercus variabilis communities area was 1,000 $m^2$, but Q. aliena, Q. serrata, Carpinus laxiflora and Zelcova serrata communities was not appeared. Therefore, potential national vegetation of Bukhansan national park was likely to be Q. mongolica community, P. densiflora community, Q. acutissima community and Q. variabilis community.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 춘계 학술발표회 초청강연 및 논문집
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• pp.1378-1385
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• 2008

The probability of landslide hazards was predicted to natural terrain around the stone relics of Jinjeon-saji area, which is located in Yangyang, Kangwon Province. As the analysis results of field investigation, laboratory test and geology and geomorphology data, the effect factors of landslides occurrence were evaluated, and then the landslides prediction map was made up by use of prediction model considering the effect factors. The susceptibility of stone relics induced by landslides was investigated as the grading classification of occurrence probability using the landslides prediction map. In the landslides prediction map, the high probability area of landslides over 70% of occurrence probability was 3,489m3, which was 10.1% of total prediction area. If landslides are occurred at the high elevation area, the three stories stone pagoda of Jinjeon-saji (National treasure No.122) and the stone lantern of Jinjeon-saji (Treasure No.439) will be collapsed by debris flow.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.76.1-76.1
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• 2014

We investigate the solar flare and CME occurrence rate and probability depending on sunspot class and its area change. These CMEs are front-side, partial and full halo CMEs associated with X-ray flares. For this we use the Solar Region Summary(SRS) from NOAA, NGDC flare catalog, and SOHO/LASCO CME catalog for 16 years (from January 1996 to December 2011). We classify each sunspot class into two sub-groups: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each class, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot class area change: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". In terms of sunspot class area, the solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities noticeably increase at compact and large sunspot groups (e.g., 'Fkc'). In terms of sunspot area change, solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. For example, in case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' class, the flare occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. In case of the 'Eai' class, the CME occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-groups is five time higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results demonstrate statistically that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance solar flare and CME occurrence, especially for compact and large sunspot groups.