• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.156-166
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• 2001

A stochastic continuum(SC) modeling technique was developed to simulate the groundwater flow pathway in fractured rocks. This model was developed to overcome the disadvantageous points of discrete fracture network(DFN) modes which has the limitation of fracture numbers. Besides, SC model is able to perform probabilistic analysis and to simulate the conductive groundwater pathway as discrete fracture network model. The SC model was formulated based on the discrete fracture network(DFN) model. The spatial distribution of permeability in the stochastic continuum model was defined by the probability distribution and variogram functions defined from the permeabilities of subdivided smaller blocks of the DFN model. The analysis of groundwater travel time was performed to show the consistency between DFN and SC models by the numerical experiment. It was found that the stochastic continuum modes was an appropriate way to provide the probability density distribution of groundwater velocity which is required for the probabilistic safety assessment of a radioactive waste disposal facility.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.167-174
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• 2004

This paper is to introduce an article published in Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 2003. In this research, a fracture mechanics model is developed to illustrate the importance of time-dependence far brittle fractured rock. In particular a model is developed fer the time-dependent degradation of rock joint cohesion. Degradation of joint cohesion is modeled as the time-dependent breaking of intact patches or rock bridges along the joint surface. A fracture mechanics model is developed utilizing subcritical crack growth, which results in a closed-form solution for joint cohesion as a function of time. As an example, a rock block containing rock bridges subjected to plane sliding is analyzed. The cohesion is found to continually decrease, at first slowly and then more rapidly. At a particular value of time the cohesion reduces to value that results in slope instability. A second example is given where variations in some of the material parameters are assumed. A probabilistic slope analysis is conducted, and the probability of failure as a function of time is predicted. The probability of failure is found to increase with time, from an initial value of 5% to a value at 100 years of over 40%. These examples show the importance of being able to predict the time-dependent behavior of a rock mass containing discontinuities, even for relatively short-term rock structures.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.604-609
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• 2003

Flaw geometries, applied stress, and material properties are major input variables for the fracture mechanics analysis. Probabilistic approach can be applied for the consideration of uncertainties within these input variables. But probabilistic analysis requires many assumptions due to the lack of initial flaw distributions data. In this study correlations are examined between initial flaw distributions and in-service flaw distributions on structures under cyclic load. For the analysis, LEFM theories and Monte Carlo simulation are applied. Result shows that in-service flaw distributions are determined by initial flaw distributions rather than fatigue crack growth rate. So initial flaw distribution can be derived from in-service flaw distributions.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.192-192
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• 2008

As the lifetime of nuclear power plants (NPPs) reaches design life, the probability for fatal accidents increases. Most of accidents are known to be caused by degradation of mechanical components. Pressure tubes are the most important components in CANDU reactor. They are subjected to various aging mechanisms such as delayed hydride cracking (DHC), irradiation and corrosion, etc. Therefore, the integrity of pressure tube is key concern in CANDU reactor. Up to recently, conventional deterministic approaches have been utilized to evaluate the integrity of components. However, there are many uncertainties to prevent a rational evaluation. The objective of this paper is to assess the failure probability of pressure tube in CANDU. To do this, probability fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis based on the Genetic Algorithm (GA) is performed. For the verification of the analysis, a comparison of the PFM analysis using a commercial code and mathematical method is carried out.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.257-265
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• 2011

Plant-specific analyses of 5 types of domestic reactors in Korea are performed to assure the structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during transients which are expected to initiate pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events. The failure probability of the RPV due to PTS is obtained by performing probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. The through-wall cracking frequency is calculated and compared to the acceptance criterion. Considering the fluence at the end of life expected by surveillance test, the sufficient safety margin is expected for the structural integrity of all reactor pressure vessels except for the oldest one during the pressurized thermal shock events. If the flaw with aspect ratio of 1/12 is considered to eliminate the conservatism, the acceptance criteria is not exceeded for all plants until the fluence level of $8{\times}10^{19}\;n/cm^2$, generating sufficient margin beyond the design life.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.577-588
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• 2016

Due to the uncertainties related to the flaw assessment parameters, such as flaw size, fracture toughness, loading spectrum and so on, the probability concept is preferred over deterministic one in flaw assessment. In this study, efforts have been made to develop the reliability based flaw assessment procedure which combines the flaw assessment procedure of BS7910 and first-and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). Both crack length and depth of semi-elliptical surface crack at weld toe were handled as random variable whose probability distribution was defined as Gaussian with certain means and standard deviations. Then the limit state functions from static rupture and fatigue perspective were estimated using FORM and SORM in joint probability space of crack depth and length. The validity of predicted limit state functions were checked by comparing it with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. It was confirmed that the developed methodology worked perfectly in predicting the limit state functions without time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.81 no.5
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• pp.565-574
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• 2022

The infrastructures such as offshore, bridges, power plant, oil and gas piping and aircraft operate in a harsh environment during their service life. Structural integrity of engineering components used in these industries is paramount for the reliability and economics of operation. Two regression models based on the concept of Gaussian process regression (GPR) and Minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) were developed to predict stress intensity factor range (𝚫K). Both GPR and MPMR are in the frame work of probability distribution. Models were developed by using the fatigue crack growth data in MATLAB by appropriately modifying the tools. Fatigue crack growth experiments were carried out on Eccentrically-loaded Single Edge notch Tension (ESE(T)) specimens made of API 5L X65 Grade steel in inert and corrosive environments (2.0% and 3.5% NaCl). The experiments were carried out under constant amplitude cyclic loading with a stress ratio of 0.1 and 5.0 Hz frequency (inert environment), 0.5 Hz frequency (corrosive environment). Crack growth rate (da/dN) and stress intensity factor range (𝚫K) values were evaluated at incremental values of loading cycle and crack length. About 70 to 75% of the data has been used for training and the remaining for validation of the models. It is observed that the predicted SIF range is in good agreement with the corresponding experimental observations. Further, the performance of the models was assessed with several statistical parameters, namely, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Coefficient of Efficiency (E), Root Mean Square Error to Observation's Standard Deviation Ratio (RSR), Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE), Performance Index (ρ) and Variance Account Factor (VAF).

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2020

In general, an inspection schedule is established based on the long-term fatigue life during the design stage. However, in the design stage, it is difficult to clearly identify the uncertainty factors affecting long-term fatigue life. In this study, the probabilistic fatigue life assessment was conducted in accordance with the methodology of DNV-GL. Firstly, The initial crack distribution estimated through the initial crack propagation analysis was updated by reflecting the results of crack inspection. Secondly, the updated crack distribution was compared with the initial crack distribution, and the probability of failure was updated with the effect of crack inspection.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.693-700
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• 2004

The probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) is a useful analytical tool to assess the integrity of reactor pressure vessel(RPV) at the event of pressurized thermal shock(PTS). In PFM, the probabilities of flaw initiation and propagation are estimated by comparing the applied stress intensity factor with the fracture toughness calculated by the simulation of various stochastic variables. It is known that the results of PFM analyses are dependent on the choice of the stochastic parameters and assumptions. Of the various variables and assumptions, we investigated the effects of the RT$_{NDT}$ shift equations, fracture toughness curves, and flaw distributions on the PFM results for the three PTS transients. The results showed that the combined effects of the RT$_{NDT}$ shift equations and fracture toughness curves are complicated and dependent on the characteristics of the transients, the chemistry of the materials, the fast neutron fluence, and so on.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.31 no.9
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• pp.777-782
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• 2014

Usually, railway axles are designed for infinite life based on endurance limit of the material and the axle is not fractured immediately when a surface crack initiated. The railway axles have been inspected regularly by NDT such as ultrasonic testing, magnetic testing and eddy current testing and so on. Because the axle failure is profoundly influenced by the probability of missing a fatigue crack during an NDT inspection, it is necessary to evaluate the Non Destructive Interval of railway axle. In the present paper, the Non Destructive Interval of railway axle based on fracture mechanics and finite element analysis was investigated. It was shown that the Non Destructive Interval of railway axle can be evaluated using fracture mechanics approach and extended using NDT which a crack can detect clearly.