• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability based maintenance

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Management of Neighbor Cell Lists and Physical Cell Identifiers in Self-Organizing Heterogeneous Networks

  • Lim, Jae-Chan;Hong, Dae-Hyoung
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.367-376
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we propose self-organizing schemes for the initial configuration of the neighbor cell list (NCL), maintenance of the NCL, and physical cell identifier (PCI) allocation in heterogeneous networks such as long term evolution systems where lower transmission power nodes are additionally deployed in macrocell networks. Accurate NCL maintenance is required for efficient PCI allocation and for avoiding handover delay and redundantly increased system overhead. Proposed self-organizing schemes for the initial NCL configuration and PCI allocation are based on evolved universal terrestrial radio access network NodeB (eNB) scanning that measures reference signal to interference and noise ratio and reference symbol received power, respectively, transmitted from adjacent eNBs. On the other hand, the maintenance of the NCL is managed by adding or removing cells based on periodic user equipment measurements. We provide performance analysis of the proposed schemes under various scenarios in the respects of NCL detection probability, NCL false alarm rate, handover delay area ratio, PCI conflict ratio, etc.

Estimating the Loss Ratio of Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation through Stochastic Analysis

  • Hong, Taehoon;Koo, Choongwan;Lee, Minhyun
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2013
  • As climate change and environmental pollution become one of the biggest global issues today, new renewable energy, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) system, is getting great attention as a sustainable energy source. However, initial investment cost of PV system is considerable, and thus, it is crucial to predict electricity generation accurately before installation of the system. This study analyzes the loss ratio of solar photovoltaic electricity generation from the actual PV system monitoring data to predict electricity generation more accurately in advance. This study is carried out with the following five steps: (i) Data collection of actual electricity generation from PV system and the related information; (ii) Calculation of simulation-based electricity generation; (iii) Comparative analysis between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation based on the seasonality; (iv) Stochastic approach by defining probability distribution of loss ratio between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation ; and (v) Case study by conducting Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) based on the probability distribution function of loss ratio. The results of this study could be used (i) to estimate electricity generation from PV system more accurately before installation of the system, (ii) to establish the optimal maintenance strategy for the different application fields and the different season, and (iii) to conduct feasibility study on investment at the level of life cycle.

ESTIMATING THE LOSS RATIO OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC ELECTRICITY GENERATION THROUGH STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS

  • Taehoon Hong;Choongwan Koo;Minhyun Lee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2013
  • As climate change and environmental pollution become one of the biggest global issues today, new renewable energy, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) system, is getting great attention as a sustainable energy source. However, initial investment cost of PV system is considerable, and thus, it is crucial to predict electricity generation accurately before installation of the system. This study analyzes the loss ratio of solar photovoltaic electricity generation from the actual PV system monitoring data to predict electricity generation more accurately in advance. This study is carried out with the following five steps: (i) Data collection of actual electricity generation from PV system and the related information; (ii) Calculation of simulation-based electricity generation; (iii) Comparative analysis between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation based on the seasonality; (iv) Stochastic approach by defining probability distribution of loss ratio between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation ; and (v) Case study by conducting Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) based on the probability distribution function of loss ratio. The results of this study could be used (i) to estimate electricity generation from PV system more accurately before installation of the system, (ii) to establish the optimal maintenance strategy for the different application fields and the different season, and (iii) to conduct feasibility study on investment at the level of life cycle.

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Selection of Probability Distribution of Pavement Life Based on Reliability Method (신뢰성 개념을 이용한 적정 포장 수명분포 선정)

  • Do, Myung-Sik;Kwon, Soo-Ahn
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we present the methodology about an optimal probability distribution selection as well as survival rate estimation with the national highway database from 1999 to 2008. Probability paper methods are adopted to estimate the parameters of each hazard model. The goodness-of-fit test, such as the Anderson-Darling statistics, was performed. As a result, we found that Lognormal distributionan is an appropriate distribution of newly constructed sections as well as overlayed sections. We also ascertained that the results of survival rate for pavement life between the proposed method and observed data are similar. Such a selection methodology and measures based on reliability theory can provide useful information for maintenance plans in pavement management systems as long as additional life data on pavement sections are accumulated.

Reliability-Based Structural Integrity Assessment of Wall-Thinned Pipes Using Partial Safety Factor (부분안전계수를 이용한 감육배관의 신뢰도 기반 건전성 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Bin;Huh, Nam-Su;Park, Chi-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3_1spc
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    • pp.518-524
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    • 2013
  • Recently, probabilistic assessments of nuclear power plant components have generated interest in the nuclear industries, either for the efficient inspection and maintenance of older nuclear plants or for improving the safety and cost-effective design of newly constructed nuclear plants. In the present paper, the partial safety factor (PSF) of wall-thinned nuclear piping is evaluated based on a reliability index method, from which the effect of each statistical variable (assessment parameter) on a certain target probability is evaluated. In order to calculate the PSF of a wall-thinned pipe, a limit state function based on the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) concept is first constructed. As for the reliability assessment method, both the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method and second-order reliability method (SORM) are employed to determine the PSF of each probabilistic variable. The present results can be used for developing maintenance strategies considering the priorities of input variables for structural integrity assessments of wall-thinned piping, and this PSF concept can also be applied to the optimal design of the components of newly constructed plants considering the target reliability levels.

Seismic Fragility Evaluation of Cable Supported Bridges Based on Probability Distribution Using Safety Factors of Structural Members (안전율 확률분포에 근거한 케이블지지교량 주요부재의 내진성능 취약도 평가)

  • Park, Jin-Woo;Kim, Chang-Sung;Kim, Doo-Kie
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to rationally determine the priority of seismic reinforcement of main(key) members of bridges. Cable Supported bridge was selected as the evaluation target and the reliability based on the probability distribution was used to evaluate the seismic fragility of the key members as a quantitative indicator. The safety factor, which is a random variable, is considered an artificial (fixed load and live load) load and a natural (earthquake, wind, temperature, etc.) load. The seismic load is applied as a possible earthquake during the lifetime of the bridge. From analyzing the fragility of each key member based on the seismic reliability, it can be concluded that the shoe (23.8%) was the most fragile, where the other members are ranked as place concrete (20.5%), pier (18.9%), foundation (17.3%) and cable (5.0%) respectively.

Analysis Technique on Time-dependent PDF (Probability of Durability Failure) Considering Equivalent Surface Chloride Content (균등 표면 염화물량을 고려한 시간 의존적 내구적 파괴확률 해석기법)

  • Lee, Hack-Soo;Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2017
  • Recently durability design based on deterministic or probabilistic method has been attempted since service life evaluation in RC(Reinforced Concrete) structure exposed to chloride attack is important. The deterministic durability design contains a reasonable method with time effect on surface chloride content and diffusion coefficient, however the probabilistic design procedure has no consideration of time effect on both. In the paper, a technique on PDF(Probability of Durability Failure) evaluation is proposed considering time effect on diffusion and surface chloride content through equivalent surface chloride content which has same induced chloride content within a given period and cover depth. With varying period to built-up from 10 to 30 years and maximum surface chloride content from $5.0kg/m^3$ to $10.0kg/m^3$, the changing PDF and the related service life are derived. The proposed method can be reasonably applied to actual durability design with preventing conservative design parameters and considering the same analysis conditions of the deterministic method.

Rating and Lifetime Prediction of a Bridge with Maintenance (유지관리보수가 된 교량의 내하력평가 및 잔존수명 예측)

  • Seung-Ie Yang;Han-Jung Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2003
  • Bridges are rated at two levels by either Load Factor Design (LFD) or Allowable Stress Design (ASD). The lower level rating is called Inventory Rating and the upper level rating is called Operating Rating. To maintain bridges effectively, there is an urgent need to assess actual bridge loading carrying capacity and to predict their remaining life from a system reliability viewpoint. The lifetime functions are introduced and explained to predict the time-dependent failure probability. The bridge studied in this paper was built 30 years ago in rural area. For this bridge, the load test and rehabilitation were conducted. The time-dependent system failure probability is predicted with or without rehabilitation. As a case study, an optional rehabilitation is suggested, and fir this rehabilitation, load rating is computed and the time-dependent system failure probability is predicted. Based on rehabilitation costs and extended service lifes, the optimal rehabilitation is suggested.

Service Life Prediction and Carbonation of Bridge Structures according to Environmental Conditions (환경 조건에 따른 교량구조물의 탄산화 현황 및 내구수명 예측)

  • Kim, Hun-Kyom;Kim, Sung-Bo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.126-132
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    • 2010
  • Carbonation is the results of the interaction of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere with the alkaline hydroxides in the concrete. Reinforced steel corrosion due to concrete carbonation is one of main factors on the decrease in durability of RC structure. This study investigates the influence of carbonation on the bridges under various environment condition and quantifies the effect of carbonation various domestic field data. The failure probability of durability is evaluated on the basis of reliability concept. In addition, service life of the structures is predicted based on the intended probability of durable failure in domestic concrete specification. According to experimental results of the carbonation depth, the carbonation depth increased with structural age. It is analyzed that carbonation velocity of the structures under urban area and sea condition is 1.6-1.9 times faster than the river condition. Service life of the bridges under urban area and sea condition is decreased about 2.4-3.3 times than river condition.

Study on the sampling rate for the purpose of use in water distribution network data (상수도 관망 데이터의 사용목적에 관한 수집 주기 연구)

  • Lee, Kyounghwan;Suh, JungChul;Cha, Hunjoo;Song, Kyosin;Choi, Junemo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2013
  • Sampling rate of Hydraulic pressure data, depending on the intended use of the water distribution system is an important factor. If sampling interval of hydraulic data is short, that will be more useful but it demand a lot of expense for maintenance. In this study, based on simulation of water distribution system 2 khz data, statistical techniques of student t distribution, non-exceedance probability using the optimal sampling rate for research.