• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability Score

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Performance study of propensity score methods against regression with covariate adjustment

  • Park, Jincheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2015
  • In observational study, handling confounders is a primary issue in measuring treatment effect of interest. Historically, a regression with covariate adjustment (covariate-adjusted regression) has been the typical approach to estimate treatment effect incorporating potential confounders into model. However, ever since the introduction of the propensity score, covariate-adjusted regression has been gradually replaced in medical literatures with various balancing methods based on propensity score. On the other hand, there is only a paucity of researches assessing propensity score methods compared with the covariate-adjusted regression. This paper examined the performance of propensity score methods in estimating risk difference and compare their performance with the covariate-adjusted regression by a Monte Carlo study. The study demonstrated in general the covariate-adjusted regression with variable selection procedure outperformed propensity-score-based methods in terms both of bias and MSE, suggesting that the classical regression method needs to be considered, rather than the propensity score methods, if a performance is a primary concern.

New Dispersion Function in the Rank Regression

  • Choi, Young-Hun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 2002
  • In this paper we introduce a new score generating (unction for the rank regression in the linear regression model. The score function compares the $\gamma$'th and s\`th power of the tail probabilities of the underlying probability distribution. We show that the rank estimate asymptotically converges to a multivariate normal. further we derive the asymptotic Pitman relative efficiencies and the most efficient values of $\gamma$ and s under the symmetric distribution such as uniform, normal, cauchy and double exponential distributions and the asymmetric distribution such as exponential and lognormal distributions respectively.

Clinical Prognostic Score for Predicting Disease Remission with Differentiated Thyroid Cancers

  • Somboonporn, Charoonsak;Mangklabruks, Ampica;Thakkinstian, Ammarin;Vatanasapt, Patravoot;Nakaphun, Suwannee
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.2805-2810
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    • 2016
  • Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy with a generally good prognosis. Knowing long-term outcomes of each patient helps management planning. The study was conducted to develop and validate a clinical prognostic score for predicting disease remission in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer based on patient, tumor and treatment factors. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 1,217 differentiated thyroid cancer patients from two tertiary-care hospitals in the Northeast of Thailand was performed. Associations between potential clinical prognostic factors and remission were tested by Cox proportional-hazards analysis in 852 patients (development cohort). The prediction score was created by summation of score points weighted from regression coefficients of independent prognostic factors. Risks of disease remission were estimated and the derived score was then validated in the remaining 365 patients (validation cohort). Results: During the median follow-up time of 58 months, 648 (76.1%) patients in the development cohort had disease remission. Five independent prognostic factors were identified with corresponding score points: duration from thyroid surgery to $^{131}I$ treatment (0.721), distant metastasis at initial diagnosis (0.801), postoperative serum thyroglobulin level (0.535), anti-thyroglobulin antibodies positivity (0.546), and adequacy of serum TSH suppression (0.293). The total risk score for each patient was calculated and three categories of remission probability were proposed: ${\leq}1.628$ points (low risk, 83% remission), 1.629-1.816 points (intermediate risk, 87% remission), and ${\geq}1.817$ points (high risk, 93% remission). The concordance (C-index) was 0.761 (95% CI 0.754-0.767). Conclusions: The clinical prognostic scoring model developed to quantify the probability of disease remission can serve as a useful tool in personalized decision making regarding treatment in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

병원 입원 환자를 위한 낙상예방중재 효과의 비교우위: 네트워크 메타분석 (Comparative Effect of Interventions for Fall Prevention in Hospitals: Network Meta-analysis)

  • 강현욱;고지운
    • 근관절건강학회지
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.218-229
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aimed to assess and compare the effectiveness of various fall prevention interventions in hospitals through a network meta-analysis. Methods: A network meta-analysis was conducted using the "netmeta" package in R software (v4.1), employing a frequency method. Odds ratios of fall rates and injurious fall rates were utilized to confirm the effects of interventions for fall prevention. Comparative rankings of these interventions were determined using cumulative probability (P-score). Results: Comparative rankings via cumulative probability (P-scores) revealed individualized education as the most effective intervention for fall incidence (P-Score 87.8%). Followed by fall-preventing sensors (60.9%), multicomponent interventions (47.4%), usual care (33.2%), and environmental modification (20.7%). For fall-related injuries, individualized education ranked highest (P-Score 97.1%), followed by multicomponent interventions (76.0%), usual care (47.6%), environmental modification (24.2%), and fall-preventing sensors (5.1%). Conclusion: This study provides valuable insights into the relative effectiveness of diverse interventions in preventing fall incidence through network meta-analysis. The findings aim to support nurses in making informed decisions when implementing fall prevention strategies in clinical practice.

A Study of Choice for Analysis Method on Repeated Measures Clinical Data

  • Song, Jung
    • 대한임상검사과학회지
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    • 제45권2호
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    • pp.60-65
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    • 2013
  • Data from repeated measurements are accomplished through repeatedly processing the same subject under different conditions and different points of view. The power of testing enhances the choice of pertinent analysis methods that agrees with the characteristics of data concerned and the situation involved. Along with the clinical example, this paper compares the analysis of the variance on ex-post tests, gain score analysis, analysis by mixed design and analysis of covariance employable for repeating measure. Comparing the analysis of variance on ex post test, and gain score analysis on correlations, leads to the fact that the latter enhances the power of the test and diminishes the variance of error terms. The concluded probability, identified that the gain score analysis and the mixed design on interaction between "between subjects factor" and "within subjects factor", are identical. The analysis of covariance, demonstrated better power of the test and smaller error terms than the gain score analysis. Research on four analysis method found that the analysis of covariance is the most appropriate in clinical data than two repeated test with high correlation and ex ante affects ex post.

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은닉마르코브 모델의 부합확률연산의 정수화 알고리즘 개발 (I) (Development of an Integer Algorithm for Computation of the Matching Probability in the Hidden Markov Model (I))

  • 김진헌;김민기;박귀태
    • 전자공학회논문지B
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    • 제31B권8호
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 1994
  • The matching probability P(ο/$\lambda$), of the signal sequence(ο) observed for a finite time interval with a HMM (Hidden Markov Model $\lambda$) indicates the probability that signal comes from the given model. By utilizing the fact that the probability represents matching score of the observed signal with the model we can recognize an unknown signal pattern by comparing the magnitudes of the matching probabilities with respect to the known models. Because the algorithm however uses floating point variables during the computing process hardware implementation of the algorithm requires floating point units. This paper proposes an integer algorithm which uses positive integer numbers rather than float point ones to compute the matching probability so that we can economically realize the algorithm into hardware. The algorithm makes the model parameters integer numbers by multiplying positive constants and prevents from divergence of data through the normalization of variables at each step. The final equation of matching probability is composed of constant terms and a variable term which contains logarithm operations. A scheme to make the log conversion table smaller is also presented. To analyze the qualitive characteristics of the proposed algorithm we attatch simulation result performed on two groups of 10 hypothetic models respectively and inspect the statistical properties with repect to the model order the magnitude of scaling constants and the effect of the observation length.

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욕창예방을 위한 체위변경 중재 효과의 비교순위: 네트워크 메타분석 (Comparative Effects and Ranks of Repositioning for Pressure Ulcer Prevention in Adults: A Network Meta-analysis)

  • 고지운
    • 근관절건강학회지
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: A network meta-analysis was conducted to assess the comparative effects and ranks of repositioning for pressure ulcer prevention in adults. Methods: A network meta-analysis was performed in a frequency method, using the "netmeta" package of R software version 4.1. The effects of repositioning intervention were confirmed by the odds ratio. The comparative ranking of the repositioning effects was confirmed using the cumulative probability (P-score). Results: Seven intervention studies were included in this study. Based on the P-score, the use of the repositioning system was ranked as the most effective among all interventions (P-score 78.7%). Next was 3~4-hour repositioning combined with memory foam mattress use (P-score 77.2%), use of wearable sensor (P-Score 61.4%), 2-hour repositioning combined with memory foam mattress use (P-score 59.1%), 2-hour repositioning combined with powered air pressure redistribution mattress use (P-score 18.0%), and 4-hour repositioning combined with powered air pressure redistribution mattress use (P-score 18.0%). Conclusion: This study provides information on the relative comparative value of various repositioning interventions to prevent pressure ulcers using network meta-analysis. This is expected to be useful for nurses' decision-making when applying repositioning interventions in clinical practice

Reinterpretation of the protein identification process for proteomics data

  • Kwon, Kyung-Hoon;Lee, Sang-Kwang;Cho, Kun;Park, Gun-Wook;Kang, Byeong-Soo;Park, Young-Mok
    • Interdisciplinary Bio Central
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    • 제1권3호
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    • pp.9.1-9.6
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    • 2009
  • Introduction: In the mass spectrometry-based proteomics, biological samples are analyzed to identify proteins by mass spectrometer and database search. Database search is the process to select the best matches to the experimental mass spectra among the amino acid sequence database and we identify the protein as the matched sequence. The match score is defined to find the matches from the database and declare the highest scored hit as the most probable protein. According to the score definition, search result varies. In this study, the difference among search results of different search engines or different databases was investigated, in order to suggest a better way to identify more proteins with higher reliability. Materials and Methods: The protein extract of human mesenchymal stem cell was separated by several bands by one-dimensional electrophorysis. One-dimensional gel was excised one by one, digested by trypsin and analyzed by a mass spectrometer, FT LTQ. The tandem mass (MS/MS) spectra of peptide ions were applied to the database search of X!Tandem, Mascot and Sequest search engines with IPI human database and SwissProt database. The search result was filtered by several threshold probability values of the Trans-Proteomic Pipeline (TPP) of the Institute for Systems Biology. The analysis of the output which was generated from TPP was performed. Results and Discussion: For each MS/MS spectrum, the peptide sequences which were identified from different conditions such as search engines, threshold probability, and sequence database were compared. The main difference of peptide identification at high threshold probability was caused by not the difference of sequence database but the difference of the score. As the threshold probability decreases, the missed peptides appeared. Conversely, in the extremely high threshold level, we missed many true assignments. Conclusion and Prospects: The different identification result of the search engines was mainly caused by the different scoring algorithms. Usually in proteomics high-scored peptides are selected and low-scored peptides are discarded. Many of them are true negatives. By integrating the search results from different parameter and different search engines, the protein identification process can be improved.

독립표본에서 두 모비율의 차이에 대한 가중 POLYA 사후분포 신뢰구간 (The Weighted Polya Posterior Confidence Interval For the Difference Between Two Independent Proportions)

  • 이승천
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.171-181
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    • 2006
  • 모비율 차이의 구간 추정에서 표준으로 인식되고 있는 Wald 신뢰구간은 모비율 구간 추정과 마찬가지로 포함확률의 근사성에서 문제가 있다는 것이 알려져 있다. 이에 대한 대안으로 모비율 차이의 신뢰구간에 대한 많은 연구가 있어 왔으나 대부분의 신뢰구간은 매우 복잡한 과정을 통해 얻어지게 되어 있어 실용성에 대한 문제가 제기될 수 있다. 이와 비교하여 Agresti와 Caffo(2000)에 의해 제시된 신뢰구간은 매우 간편한 식에 의해 구할 수 있어 이해하기 쉽고 포함확률과 포함확률의 평균절대오차에 있어 다른 복잡한 신뢰 구간과 필적할 수 있다. 그러나 Agresti-Caffo 신뢰 구간은 포함확률이 명목 신뢰수준을 상회하는 보수적인 구간으로 알려져 있다. 본 논문에서는 이승천(2005)에서 이항비율의 신뢰구간을 구하기 위해 사용된 가중 Polya 사후분포를 이용하여 두 모비율 차이의 신뢰구간을 구하였다. 이렇게 구하여진 신뢰구간은 간편성은 물론 Agresti-Caffo 신뢰구간의 보수성을 개선하였다.