• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Score

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Prediction of New Customer's Degree of Loyalty of Internet Shopping Mall Using Continuous Conditional Random Field (Continuous Conditional Random Field에 의한 인터넷 쇼핑몰 신규 고객등급 예측)

  • Ahn, Gil Seung;Hur, Sun
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we suggest a method to predict probability distribution of a new customer's degree of loyalty using C-CRF that reflects the RFM score and similarity to the neighbors of the customer. An RFM score prediction model is introduced to construct the first feature function of C-CRF. Integrating demographical similarity, purchasing characteristic similarity and purchase history similarity, we make a unified similarity variable to configure the second feature function of C-CRF. Then parameters of each feature function are estimated and we train our C-CRF model by training data set and suggest a probabilistic distribution to estimate a new customer's degree of loyalty. An example is provided to illustrate our model.

A Study on Design of S-BSC(Safety-Balanced ScoreCard) for Total Safety Evaluation (종합 안전평가를 위한 S-BSC(Safety-Balanced ScoreCard) 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Kwang-Mo
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2008
  • Risk is the probability of an adverse event given exposure to hazard. There are many reason for unsafety situation without safety operation. The reason is no safety evaluation system in small enterprise. And then this study purposes safety management activities that is evaluation system for total safety efficiency's maximization. Therefore, in this study, this model that can evaluate quantitative activities in small enterprise that maximize safety efficiency wishes to do design using balanced scorecard. In other words, this study aims to suggest a performance measurement model reflecting the characteristics of safety evaluation system, especially the model for return manufacturing related to safety, and to develop the S-BSC(Safety-Balanced ScoreCard) measurement model using a weight lifetime value to which a relative weight is applied by using AHP based on the BSC.

Speaker Identification Using Score-based Confidence in Noisy Environments (스코어 기반 관측신뢰도를 이용한 잡음환경하 화자식별)

  • Min, So-Hee;Song, Min-Gyu;Na, Seung-You;Choi, Seung-Ho;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Speech Sciences
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.145-156
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    • 2007
  • The performance of speaker identification is severely degraded in noisy environments. Recently probability weighting method based on observation membership was proposed for overcoming the noise problem[1]. In the paper[1] the observation confidence was calculated from SNR with sigmoid function. However, estimating SNR needs additive calculation amount and estimated SNR is corrupted in dynamic noisy environments. In this paper we propose estimation methods of the observation confidence based on score-based reliabilities (SBR) of entropy and dispersion measures. Generally SBRs are obtained from speaker models' probabilities. The proposed methods are evaluated with ETRI speaker recognition DB. We compared the performances of the proposed methods with those in [1][8]. The experimental results show that the proposed methods can be successfully applied for the case where SNR is not available.

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Study on the Age Determination in Korean Adult Teeth by Gustafson에s Method (Gustafson 방법에 의한 한국인 영구치에서의 연령감정에 관한 연구)

  • 김동원;김종열
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.103-116
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    • 1984
  • Randumly sampled out 157 extracted Korean adult teeth, aged 12 to 79 years, was applicated to estimat the age by Gustafson's method, were evaluated and analyzed in terms of phyological aging change. The results are as follows : 1. It was reconfirmed that there existed comparatively close correlationship between age and score, especially in old age. 2. Korean score had comparatively high level than those of European. 3. In the probability of age edetermination, the estimation error was the most high level in the age of 70~ with ±4.47, and next order was in the age of 10-19 with ±5.20,60-69 with ±5.8,30-39 with ±5.98,50-59 ±6.20,40-49 with ±6.72,20-29 with ±9.28.Mean value was ±8.03. 4. The regression equation is as follows. y=3.55x+8.52(r=8.75) standard deviation σ=±8.03 (y= estimated age x=score) 5. In age determination with those data, needs to estimate slightly lower than caculated age in range of 10-49, and higher in 50-70 for the real age determination.

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Retrospective Study of Predictors of Bone Metastasis in Prostate Cancer Cases

  • Ho, Christopher Chee Kong;Seong, Poh Keat;Zainuddin, Zulkifli Md;Abdul Manaf, Mohd Rizal;Parameswaran, Muhilan;Razack, Azad H.A.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.3289-3292
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    • 2013
  • Introduction: The purpose of this study was to identify clinical profiles of patients with low risk of having bone metastases, for which bone scanning could be safely eliminated. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cross sectional study looked at prostate cancer patients seen in the Urology Departments in 2 tertiary centres over the 11 year period starting from January 2000 to May 2011. Patient demographic data, levels of PSA at diagnosis, Gleason score for the biopsy core, T-staging as well as the lymph node status were recorded and analysed. Results: 258 men were included. The mean age of those 90 men (34.9%) with bone metastasis was $69.2{\pm}7.3$ years. Logistic regression found that PSA level (P=0.000) at diagnosis and patient's nodal-stage (P=0.02) were the only two independent variables able to predict the probability of bone metastasis among the newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients. Among thowse with a low PSA level less than 20ng/ml, and less than 10ng/ml, bone metastasis were detected in 10.3% (12 out of 117) and 9.7% (7 out of 72), respectively. However, by combining PSA level of 10ng/ml or lower, and nodal negative as the two criteria to predict negative bone scan, a relatively high negative predictive value of 93.8% was obtained. The probability of bone metastasis in prostate cancer can be calculated with this formula: -1.069+0.007(PSA value, ng/ml)+1.021(Nodal status, 0 or 1)=x Probability of bone metastasis=$2.718^x/1+2.718^x$. Conclusion: Newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients with a PSA level of 10ng/ml or lower and negative nodes have a very low risk of bone metastasis (negative predictive value 93.8%) and therefore bone scans may not be necessary.

Building a Korean-English Parallel Corpus by Measuring Sentence Similarities Using Sequential Matching of Language Resources and Topic Modeling (언어 자원과 토픽 모델의 순차 매칭을 이용한 유사 문장 계산 기반의 위키피디아 한국어-영어 병렬 말뭉치 구축)

  • Cheon, JuRyong;Ko, YoungJoong
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.901-909
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, to build a parallel corpus between Korean and English in Wikipedia. We proposed a method to find similar sentences based on language resources and topic modeling. We first applied language resources(Wiki-dictionary, numbers, and online dictionary in Daum) to match word sequentially. We construct the Wiki-dictionary using titles in Wikipedia. In order to take advantages of the Wikipedia, we used translation probability in the Wiki-dictionary for word matching. In addition, we improved the accuracy of sentence similarity measuring method by using word distribution based on topic modeling. In the experiment, a previous study showed 48.4% of F1-score with only language resources based on linear combination and 51.6% with the topic modeling considering entire word distributions additionally. However, our proposed methods with sequential matching added translation probability to language resources and achieved 9.9% (58.3%) better result than the previous study. When using the proposed sequential matching method of language resources and topic modeling after considering important word distributions, the proposed system achieved 7.5%(59.1%) better than the previous study.

Evaluation of Probability of Survival Using Trauma and Injury Severity Score Method in Severe Neurotrauma Patients

  • Moon, Jung-Ho;Seo, Bo-Ra;Jang, Jae-Won;Lee, Jung-Kil;Moon, Hyung-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.42-46
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    • 2013
  • Objective : Despite several limitations, the Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) is normally used to evaluate trauma systems. The aim of this study was to evaluate the preventable trauma death rate using the TRISS method in severe trauma patients with traumatic brain injury using our emergency department data. Methods : The use of the TRISS formula has been suggested to consider definitively preventable death (DP); the deaths occurred with a probability of survival (Ps) higher than 0.50 and possible preventable death (PP); the deaths occurred with a Ps between 0.50 and 0.25. Deaths in patients with a calculated Ps of less than 0.25 is considered as non-preventable death (NP). A retrospective case review of deaths attributed to mechanical trauma occurring between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2011 was conducted. Results : A total of 565 consecutive severe trauma patients with ISS>15 or Revised Trauma Score<7 were admitted in our institute. We excluded a total of 24 patients from our analysis : 22 patients younger than 15 years, and 2 patients with burned injury. Of these, 221 patients with head injury were analyzed in the final study. One hundred eighty-two patients were in DP, 13 in PP and 24 in NP. The calculated predicted mortality rates were 11.13%, 59.04%, and 90.09%. The actual mortality rates were 12.64%, 61.547%, and 91.67%, respectively. Conclusion : Although it needs to make some improvements, the present study showed that TRISS performed well in predicting survival of traumatic brain injured patients. Also, TRISS is relatively exact and acceptable compared with actual data, as a simple and time-saving method.

A Study on the Differentiation of Women with Perimenstrual Symptom Severity and Perimenstrual Distress Patterns (월경 전후기 증상 정도 및 월경고통 유형 판별요인)

  • Park, Young-Joo;Ryu, Ho-Shin
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study was to describe perimenstrual symptom severity levels and perimenstrual distress patterns of women. The study performed the discriminant analysis in which included seven factors : age, pariety, social support, menstrual socialization(mother's symptom, sister's symptom, and menstrual effect), attitude of sex role and depression. The subjects were 283 women that they were not pregnant or lactating, had at least one period in past three months, would understand the purpose of study and willingly accepted the participation. The data analysis was done by pc-SAS program after data collection from Nov. 20, 1997 to Dec. 18, 1997. The descriptive analysis was done to explore general characteristics of the subjects and the stepwise discriminant analysis was done to verify factors in relation to perimenstrual symptom severity levels(severe vs mild menstrual symptom group) and perimenstrual distress patterns(spasmodic vs congestive menstrual symptom group). The instruments were selected for this study from Interpersonal Support Evaluation List(ISEL) by Cohen and Hoberman(1983), Center for Epidemic Studies Depression(CES-D) by Radloff(1977), and Sex Role Attitude Scale by Yunok Suh(1995), Mother's symptom and sister's symptom measurements by Woods, Mitchell & Lentz(1995), and menstrual effect by Brooks-Gun & Ruble(1980). The major findings of this study are as follows : 1. Of the 283 women, 93 women(32.9%) were assessed to severe perimenstrual symptom group and 190 women(67.1%) were assessed to mild perimenstrual symptom group. Results from the stepwise discriminant analysis showed three factors, such as depression, menstrual effect, and age, significantly related to perimenstrual symptom severity and they explained 20% of the total variance. The linear discriminant equation included three factors related to perimenstrual symptom groups was showed(Z=1.445 depression+0.174 menstrual effect-0.054 age). The cutting score(Z) was 2.809. We classified the severe perimenstrual symptom group by more than the cutting score 2.809 and the mild perimenstrual symptom by less or equal than the cutting score 2.809. The correctedness of posterior probability from discriminant equation was 72% as two perimenstrual symptom group classifications. 2. Of the 264 women, 139 women(52.7%) were assessed to spasmodic perimenstrual distress group and women(47.3%) were assessed to congestive perimenstrual distress group. Results from the stepwise discriminant analysis showed two factors, such as depression, age, significantly related to perimenstrual distress groups and they explained 8% of the total variance. The linear discriminant equation included two factors related to perimenstrual distress group was showed(Z=-0.084 age-0.776 depression). The cutting score(Z) was -3.759. We classified the spasmodic perimenstrual distress group by more than cutting score -3.759 and the congestive perimenstrual distress group by less or equal than cutting score -3.759. The correctedness of posterior probability from discriminant equation was 65% as two perimenstrual distress group classifications.

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Construction of Probability Identification Matrix and Selective Medium for Acidophilic Actinomycetes Using Numerical Classification Data

  • Seong, Chi-Nam;Park, Seok-Kyu;Michael Goodfellow;Kim, Seung-Bum;Hah, Yung-Chil
    • Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 1995
  • A probability identification matrix of acidophilic Streptomyces was constructed. The phenetic data of the strains were derived from numerical classification described by Seong et al. The minimum number of diagnostic characters was determined using computer programs for calculation of different separation indices. The resulting matrix consisted of 25 clusters versus 53 characters. Theoretical evaluation of this matrix was achieved by estimating the chuster overlap and the identification scores for the Hypothetical Median Organisms (HMO) and for the representatives of each cluster. Cluster overlap was found to be relatively small. Identification scores for the HMO and the randomly selected representatives of each cluster were satisfactory. The matrix was assessed practically by applying the matrix to the identification of unknown isolates. Of the unknown isolates, 71.9% were clearly identified to one of eight clusters. The numerical classification data was also used to design a selective isolation medium for antibiotic-producing organisms. Four chemical substances including 2 antibiotics were determined by the DLACHAR program as diagnostic for the isolation of target organisms which have antimicrobial activity against Micrococcus luteus. It was possible to detect the increased rate of selective isolation on the synthesized medium. Theresults show that the numerical phenetic data can be applied to a variety of purposes, such as construction of identification matrix and selective isolation medium for acidophilic antinomycetes.

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Development of an User Interface Design Method using Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (적응형 유전알고리즘을 이용한 사용자 인터페이스 설계 방법 개발)

  • Jung, Ki-Hyo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.173-181
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    • 2012
  • The size and layout of user interface components need to be optimally designed in terms of reachability, visibility, clearance, and compatibility in order for efficient and effective use of products. The present study develops an ergonomic design method which optimizes the size and layout of user interface components using adaptive genetic algorithm. The developed design method determines a near-optimal design which maximizes the aggregated score of 4 ergonomic design criteria (reachability, visibility, clearance, and compatibility). The adaptive genetic algorithm used in the present study finds a near-optimum by automatically adjusting the key parameter (probability of mutation) of traditional genetic algorithm according to the characteristic of current solutions. Since the adaptive mechanism partially helps to overcome the local optimality problem, the probability of finding the near-optimum has been substantially improved. To evaluate the effectiveness of the developed design method, the present study applied it to the user interface design for a portable wireless communication radio.