• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Rainfall

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Probability Characteristics of Probable Rainfall and Recorded Maximum Rainfall in Korea. (한국주요지점에 대한 확률강우량과 관측최대강우량의 확률분석)

  • Jeong, Mahn;Lee, Jong-Kyu
    • Water for future
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 1981
  • The characteristics of point rainfall for three different durations in Seoul Pusan Taegu and Gwangju have been analysed by the probabilistic ainfall method and the M-year maximum rainfall method. The probabilities that the T-year probabilistic rainfall did not occur during the observation period, compared with the values obtained from the observed data. were smaller than the theoretical values. The averages of the probabilities that the M-year maximum-ten-minute rainfall did not occur in the consequent N-years were larger than the theoretical values, the M-year maximumone hour rainfall were smaller than the theoretical ones, and the M-year maximum daily rainfall nearly agreed with them, and while those of Japan were smaller than the theoretical values. It is recommended from the results that the recorded maximum value should be used as a design value rather than the probabilistic rainfall.

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Characteristics Analyses of Timely Rainfall Events Above Probability Precipitation on Each Frequency (빈도별 확률강우량을 초과하는 시간강우사상의 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Tae Suk;Kim, Eun Cheol;Moon, Young-Il;Ahn, Jae Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.6B
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    • pp.513-526
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    • 2009
  • The flood control countermeasure establish for reducing of the flood damages. Design frequency usually reflects the current situation of the station, the importance and the design rainfall. Therefore, this study calculated frequency for duration maximum rainfall with the area which happened the flood damages by main heavy rainfall events recently. Also, to analyze for the temporal characteristics of rainfall event exceed by design rainfall, excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event calculated. To grasp the temporal variation, About excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event have analyzed by change and trend test. Also, rainfall observatory did grouping by cluster analysis using position of rainfall observatory and characteristic timely rainfall. For the grouping rainfall observatory by the cluster analysis calculated average of excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event. To compare for the temporal characteristics, the change and trend test had analyzed about excess rainfall, excess frequency by regional groups.

A Study on Error of Frequence Rainfall Estimates Using Random Variate (무작위변량을 이용한 강우빈도분석시 내외삽오차에 관한 연구)

  • Chai, Han Kyu;Eam, Ki Ok
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.20 no.A
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2000
  • In the study rainfall frequency analysis attemped the many specific property data record duration it is differance from occur to error-term and probability ditribution of concern manifest. error-term analysis of method are fact sample data using method in other hand it is not appear to be fault that sample data of number to be small random variates. Therefore, day-rainfall data: to randomicity consider of this study sample data to the Monte Carlo method by randomize after data recode duration of form was choice method which compared an assumed maternal distribution from splitting frequency analysis consequence. In the conclusion, frequency analysis of chuncheon region rainfall appeared samll RMSE to the Gamma II distribution. In the rainfall frequency analysis estimate RMSE using random variates great transform, RMSE is appear that return period increasing little by little RMSE incresed and data number incresing to RMSE decreseing.

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An Evaluation of Extreme Precipitation based on Local Downpour using Empirical Simulation Technique (Empirical Simulation Technique 기법을 이용한 집중호우의 극한강우 평가)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 2009
  • The occurrence causes of the extreme rainfall to happen in Korea can be distinguished with the typhoons and local downpours. The typhoon events attacked irregularly to induce the heavy rainfall, and the local downpour events mean a seasonal rain front and a local rainfall. Almost every year, the typhoons and local downpours that induced a heavy precipitation be generated extreme disasters like a flooding. Consequently, in this research, There were distinguished the causes of heavy rainfall events with the typhoons and the local downpours at Korea. Also, probability precipitation was computed according to the causes of the local downpour events. An evaluation of local downpours can be used for analysis of heavy rainfall event in short period like a flash flood. The methods of calculation of probability precipitation used the parametric frequency analysis and the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST). The correlation analysis was computed between annual maximum precipitation by local downpour events and sea surface temperature, moisture index for composition of input vectors. At the results of correlation analysis, there were revealed that the relations closely between annual maximum precipitation and sea surface temperature. Also, probability precipitation using EST are bigger than probability precipitation of frequency analysis on west-middle areas in Korea. Therefore, region of west-middle in Korea should prepare the extreme precipitation by local downpour events.

A Study on the Change of Occurrence Characteristics of Daily Seoul Rainfall using Markov Chain (마코프 연쇄를 이용한 서울지점 일강우의 발생특성 변화 연구)

  • Hwang, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Joong-Hoon;Yoo, Chul-Sang;Jung, Sung-Won;Joo, Jin-Gul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.9
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    • pp.747-758
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    • 2009
  • In this study, long-term variabilities of rainfall-occurrence characteristics are analyzed using rainfall data at Seoul, which is the longest data record existing in world. first, the accuracy of Chukwooki data set (CWK) are evaluated in view of rainfall-occurrence probability by analyzing the transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics based on Markov chain. And long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities are analyzed using two dimensional LOWESS regression. From the results of analyzed transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics, it is different that rainfall-occurrence characteristics between CWK and modern rain gage data set (MRG) for original rainfall data sets (M00). For characteristics of rainfall series, occurrences probabilities of rainfall are increased and durations of each rainfall are shorter than past. And from the results of analyzing the long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities, in case of M20, lengths of dry spells between CWK and MRG are not different significantly and lengths of wet spells are decreased persistently after A.D. 1830. Especially, decreasing trend for lengths of wet spells at recent september are appeared significantly. These results are considered with increasing trend of recent rainfall, it is concluded that recent frequencies and intensities of rainfall are increasing.

지점우량 자료의 분포형 설정과 내용안전년수에 따르는 확률강우량에 관한 고찰 - 국내 3개지점 서울, 부산 및 대구를 중심으로 -

  • Lee, Won-Hwan;Lee, Gil-Chun;Jeong, Yeon-Gyu
    • Water for future
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 1972
  • This thesis is the study of the rainfall probability depth in the major areas of Korea, such as Seoul, Pusan and Taegu. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the rainfall in connection with the safe planning of the hydraulic structures and with the project life. The methodology used in this paper is the statistical treatment of the rainfall data in the above three areas. The scheme of the paper is the following. 1. The complementation of the rainfall data We tried to select the maximm values among the values gained by the three methods: Fourier Series Method, Trend Diagram Method and Mean Value Method. By the selection of the maximum values we tried to complement the rainfall data lacking in order to prevent calamities. 2. The statistical treatment of the data The data are ordered by the small numbers, transformed into log, $\sqrt{}, \sqrt[3]{}, \sqrt[4], and$\sqrt[5], and calculated their statistical values through the electronic computer. 3. The examination of the distribution types and the determination of the optimum distibution types By the $x^2-Test$ the distribution types of rainfall data are examined, and rejected some part of the data in order to seek the normal rainfall distribution types. In this way, the optimum distribution types are determined. 4. The computation of rainfall probability depth in the safety project life We tried to study the interrelation between the return period and the safety project life, and to present the rainfall probability depth of the safety project life. In conclusion we set up the optimum distribution types of the rainfall depths, formulated the optimum distributions, and presented the chart of the rainfall probability depth about the factor of safety and the project life.ct life.

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Landslide Hazard Mapping and Verification Using Probability Rainfall and Artificial Neural Networks (미래 확률강우량 및 인공신경망을 이용한 산사태 위험도 분석 기법 개발 및 검증)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Lee, Sa-Ro;Jeon, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to analyse the landslide susceptibility and the future hazard in Inje, Korea using probability rainfalls and artificial neural network (ANN) environment based on geographic information system (GIS). Data for rainfall probability, topography, and geology were collected, processed, and compiled in a spatial database using GIS. Deokjeok-ri that had experienced 694 landslides by Typhoon Ewinia in 2006 was selected for analysis and verification. The 50% of landslide data were randomly selected to use as training data while the other 50% being used for verification. The probability of landslides for target years (1 year, 3 years, 10 years, 50 years, and 100 years) was calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by 1-day rainfall of 202 mm or 3-day cumulative rainfalls of 449 mm.

An improvement on the Criteria of Special Weather Report for Heavy Rain Considering the Possibility of Rainfall Damage and the Recent Meteorological Characteristics (최근 기상특성과 재해발생이 고려된 호우특보 기준 개선)

  • Kim, Yeon-Hee;Choi, Da-Young;Chang, Dong-Eon;Yoo, Hee-Dong;Jin, Gee-Beom
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.481-495
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    • 2011
  • This study is performed to consider the threshold values of heavy rain warning in Korea using 98 surface meteorological station data and 590 Automatic Weather System stations (AWSs), damage data of National Emergency Management Agency for the period of 2005 to 2009. It is in need to arrange new criteria for heavy rain considering concept of rainfall intensity and rainfall damage to reflect the changed characteristics of rainfall according to the climate change. Rainfall values from the most frequent rainfall damage are at 30 mm/1 hr, 60 mm/3 hr, 70 mm/6 hr, and 110 mm/12 hr, respectively. The cumulative probability of damage occurrences of one in two due to heavy rain shows up at 20 mm/1 hr, 50 mm/3 hr, 80 mm/6 hr, and 110 mm/12 hr, respectively. When the relationship between threshold values of heavy rain warning and the possibility of rainfall damage is investigated, rainfall values for high connectivity between heavy rain warning criteria and the possibility of rainfall damage appear at 30 mm/1 hr, 50 mm/3 hr, 80 mm/6 hr, and 100 m/12 hr, respectively. It is proper to adopt the daily maximum precipitation intensity of 6 and 12 hours, because 6 hours rainfall might be include the concept of rainfall intensity for very-short-term and short-term unexpectedly happened rainfall and 12 hours rainfall could maintain the connectivity of the previous heavy rain warning system and represent long-term continuously happened rainfall. The optimum combinations of criteria for heavy rain warning of 6 and 12 hours are 80 mm/6 hr or 100 mm/12 hr, and 70 mm/6 hr or 110 mm/12 hr.

A Study on Special Quality of Hourly Precipitation of Typhoon happened in Korea (우리나라에 발생한 태풍의 시간 강우량 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.709-722
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    • 2007
  • The floods of Korea happens periodically during summer. The cause of heavy rain that provokes floods can be classified into typhoon and localized downpour. The typhoon happens in the tropical region. It causes one of the worst damage to Korea by extreme rainfall and strong wind. Usually, it is known that the flood damage by the typhoon is larger than that by the localized downpour. Therefore, this study classified rainfall events into typhoon events and localized downpour events based on the cause. Through statistical analyses of the rainfall data, this study investigated special quality of the rainfall during the time of typhoon. In analysis results, probability Precipitation calculated by the typhoon events were exposed bigger than that calculated by all rainfall events.

Characteristics of Changes in Water Quality in the Suyoung River During Rainfall Event (강우 시 수영강 유역의 수질변화 특성)

  • Kim, Suhyun;Kim, Jungsun;Kang, Limseok
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2019
  • Recently, it was realized that a significant portion of pollution from urban areas originates from non-point sources such as construction sites, washoff from impervious surfaces, and sewage input from unsewered areas and combined sewer overflows. Especially, Urban stormwater runoff is one of the most extensive cause of the deterioration of the water quality in streams located in urban area. The objective of this study was to investigate runoff characteristics of non-point pollutants source at the urban area in the Suyeong River. Water quality variations were investigated at two points of Suyeong River during a period of 10 rainfall events. Concentration difference of non-point pollution source appeared big by precedent number of days of no rainfall. In addition, Event mean Concentration (EMCs) that well represents runoff characteristics of storm water during rainfall, was calculated, and runoff pollutants loading was also examined. The probability distribution of EMCs of BOD, COD, TOC, T-N, T-P, and TSS were analyzed and the mean values of observed EMC and the median values of estimated EMCs compared through probability distribution. Other objectives of this study were the characterization of discharge from non-point source, the analysis of the pollutant loads and an establishment of a management plan for non-point source of Suyeong River. Also, It was established that the most important thing for the administration of non-point pollution source is to come up with the solution for the reduction of effluent at the beginning.